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V - Assume below-plan performance, VPS struggling
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V - Assume to start signing high-tier ICP deals starts here
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V - And shows up in churn here
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StartCo Quarterly Metrics
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($K)
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1Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q26
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Starting ARR 5,250 6,425 8,200 11,500 16,338 18,249 21,419 25,844 32,193 32,468
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New ARR 1,250 2,000 3,750 5,625 2,875 4,400 7,875 11,250 5,750 8,800
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Churn ARR 75 225 450 788 964 1,230 3,450 4,901 5,475 6,426
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Ending ARR 6,425 8,200 11,500 16,338 18,249 21,419 25,844 32,193 32,468 34,842
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Ending ARR YoY growth %1185%447%283%211%184%161%125%97%78%63%
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Churn rate (quarterly, TTM smoothed)0%1%3%4%5%6%9%12%15%18%
It's really a T4Q smoothing, but most would say TTM
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Chun rate (quarterly)1%4%5%7%6%7%16%19%17%20%
This is churn ARR / starting ARR for the quarter, not a great way to do it, but commonly used
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Churn ARR (actual/plan)100%100%100%100%100%100%200%200%200%200%
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Churn ARR, excess over plan - - - - - - (1,725) (2,451) (2,737) (3,213)
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New ARR (actua/plan)50%67%94%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
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Churn Analysis
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ATR 500 1,500 3,000 5,250 6,425 8,200 11,500 16,338 18,249 21,419
Let alone imagine when you have multi-year deals further damping things, including in churn denom but not in ATR!
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Churn rate15%15%15%15%15%15%30%30%30%30%
This is an ATR churn rate
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Churn ARR, actual 75 225 450 788 964 1,230 3,450 4,901 5,475 6,426
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15%Churn ARR, plan 75 225 450 788 964 1,230 1,725 2,451 2,737 3,213
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Churn ARR, actual/plan100%100%100%100%100%100%200%200%200%200%
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Excess churn ( actual - plan) - - - - - - (1,725) (2,451) (2,737) (3,213)
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Hidden drivers
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New ARR YoY growth %150%100%150%150%130%120%110%100%100%100%
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New ARR plan 2,500 3,000 4,000 5,625 2,875 4,400 7,875 11,250 5,750 8,800
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Kellblog 2026 -- see FAQ for license agreement
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