Kinsa Thermometer based estimate of coronavirus prevalence

	A	B	C	D	E	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	O	P	Q	R	S	U	V	W	X	Y	AA	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM
1		Kinsa data from healthweather.us chart				My estimate based on these data							Sensitivity Analysis: Min estimate based on their upper bound of "baseline"					Sensitivity Analysis: Max estimate based on their lower bound of "baseline"					Sensitivity Analysis: 5-day doubling time						Sensitivity Analysis: 3-day doubling time
2	date	observed	expected	lower bound of expected	upper bound of expected	obs-exp	new "feverish cases"	tot "feverish cases" (sum)	tot "feverish cases" (if "new" reflects a 4-day doubling rate)	tot "feverish cases" (geo mean through 3/14, then extrapolated)	tot covid infections (estimate)	% of USA infected	obs-upper	new "feverish cases"	tot "feverish cases" (sum)	tot "feverish cases" (if "new" reflects a 4-day doubling rate)	tot "feverish cases" (geo mean through 3/16, then extrapolated)	obs-lower	new "feverish cases"	tot "feverish cases" (sum)	tot "feverish cases" (if "new" reflects a 4-day doubling rate)	tot "feverish cases" (geo mean through 3/14, then extrapolated)	obs-exp	new "feverish cases"	tot "feverish cases" (sum)	tot "feverish cases" (if "new" reflects a 5-day doubling rate)	tot "feverish cases" (geo mean through 3/14, then extrapolated)	tot covid infections (estimate)	obs-exp	new "feverish cases"	tot "feverish cases" (sum)	tot "feverish cases" (if "new" reflects a 3-day doubling rate)	tot "feverish cases" (geo mean through 3/14, then extrapolated)	tot covid infections (estimate)

3	02/29/20	4.99
4	03/01/20	5.00						70,231												215,980					84,580						52,107
5	03/02/20	5.06	4.90	4.42	5.38	0.16	12,083	82,314	75,943	79,064	241,776	0.07%	-0.32	0	0	0	0	0.64	48,331	264,311	303,772	283,355	0.16	12,083	96,662	93,340	94,987	244,251	0.16	12,083	64,190	58,569	61,315	250,282
6	03/03/20	5.08	4.85	4.37	5.33	0.23	17,369	99,683	109,168	104,318	319,000	0.10%	-0.25	0	0	0	0	0.71	53,617	317,929	336,997	327,324	0.23	17,369	114,031	134,176	123,694	318,071	0.23	17,369	81,559	84,193	82,866	338,248
7	03/04/20	5.10	4.80	4.32	5.28	0.30	22,655	122,338	142,393	131,985	403,606	0.12%	-0.18	0	0	0	0	0.78	58,904	376,832	370,222	373,513	0.30	22,655	136,687	175,012	154,667	397,715	0.30	22,655	104,214	109,817	106,979	436,676
8	03/05/20	4.99	4.75	4.26	5.23	0.24	18,124	140,463	113,914	126,494	386,814	0.12%	-0.24	0	0	0	0	0.73	55,128	431,960	346,490	386,872	0.24	18,124	154,811	140,010	147,224	378,577	0.24	18,124	122,338	87,854	103,672	423,178
9	03/06/20	4.89	4.70	4.21	5.18	0.19	14,348	154,811	90,182	118,158	361,321	0.11%	-0.29	0	0	0	0	0.68	51,352	483,312	322,758	394,959	0.19	14,348	169,159	110,841	136,930	352,105	0.19	14,348	136,687	69,551	97,502	397,993
10	03/07/20	4.86	4.64	4.16	5.13	0.22	16,614	171,425	104,422	133,793	409,132	0.12%	-0.27	0	0	0	0	0.70	52,862	536,174	332,250	422,071	0.22	16,614	185,773	128,342	154,410	397,055	0.22	16,614	153,301	80,533	111,111	453,544
11	03/08/20	5.00	4.59	4.11	5.08	0.41	30,962	202,387	194,604	198,457	606,874	0.18%	-0.08	0	0	0	0	0.89	67,211	603,385	422,433	504,866	0.41	30,962	216,735	239,184	227,683	585,470	0.41	30,962	184,263	150,084	166,297	678,807
12	03/09/20	5.04	4.54	4.06	5.02	0.50	37,759	240,146	237,322	238,730	730,026	0.22%	0.02	1,510	1,510	9,493	3,786	0.98	74,007	677,392	465,151	561,328	0.50	37,759	254,494	291,687	272,457	700,603	0.50	37,759	222,021	183,029	201,585	822,845
13	03/10/20	5.07	4.49	4.01	4.98	0.58	43,800	283,946	275,293	279,586	854,963	0.26%	0.09	6,797	8,307	42,718	18,838	1.06	80,049	757,440	503,122	617,321	0.58	43,800	298,294	338,357	317,695	816,929	0.58	43,800	265,822	212,313	237,566	969,717
14	03/11/20	4.89	4.45	3.96	4.93	0.44	33,228	317,173	208,843	257,370	787,029	0.24%	-0.04	0	8,307	0	0	0.93	70,231	827,672	441,419	604,442	0.44	33,228	331,522	256,685	291,713	750,120	0.44	33,228	299,049	161,065	219,469	895,846
15	03/12/20	4.97	4.40	3.92	4.88	0.57	43,045	360,218	270,547	312,179	954,632	0.29%	0.09	6,797	15,103	42,718	25,401	1.05	79,293	906,965	498,376	672,316	0.57	43,045	374,567	332,523	352,920	907,507	0.57	43,045	342,094	208,653	267,168	1,090,551
16	03/13/20	5.00	4.36	3.87	4.84	0.64	48,331	408,550	303,772	352,287	1,077,279	0.33%	0.16	12,083	27,186	75,943	45,438	1.13	85,335	992,300	536,347	729,532	0.64	48,331	422,898	373,360	397,358	1,021,777	0.64	48,331	390,425	234,277	302,436	1,234,511
17	03/14/20	5.10	4.31	3.82	4.79	0.79	59,659	468,208	374,968	419,003	1,281,294	0.39%	0.31	23,410	50,597	147,140	86,283	1.28	96,662	1,088,962	607,544	813,383	0.79	59,659	482,557	460,866	471,587	1,212,651	0.79	59,659	450,084	289,186	360,774	1,472,639
18	03/15/20	5.04	4.25	3.77	4.74	0.79	59,659	527,867	374,968	498,281	1,523,724	0.46%	0.30	22,655	73,252	142,393	102,130	1.27	95,907	1,184,869	602,797	967,281	0.79	59,659	542,216	460,866	541,711	1,392,970	0.79	59,659	509,743	289,186	454,547	1,855,409
19	03/16/20	5.11	4.20	3.72	4.68	0.91	68,721	596,588	431,926	592,559	1,812,024	0.55%	0.43	32,473	105,724	204,097	146,895	1.39	104,969	1,289,839	659,755	1,150,298	0.91	68,721	610,937	530,871	622,262	1,600,103	0.91	68,721	578,464	333,112	572,693	2,337,669
20	03/17/20	4.91	4.14	3.66	4.62	0.77	58,148	654,737	365,476	704,676	2,154,872	0.65%	0.29	21,900	127,625	137,647	174,688	1.25	94,397	1,384,236	593,304	1,367,942	0.77	58,148	669,085	449,198	714,792	1,838,036	0.77	58,148	636,612	281,864	721,548	2,945,278
21	03/18/20	4.88	4.08	3.59	4.56	0.80	60,414	715,151	379,715	838,006	2,562,589	0.78%	0.32	24,166	151,790	151,886	207,740	1.29	97,418	1,481,653	612,290	1,626,766	0.80	60,414	729,499	466,700	821,080	2,111,348	0.80	60,414	697,026	292,846	909,093	3,710,818
22	03/19/20	4.89	4.01	3.52	4.49	0.88	66,455	781,606	417,686	996,562	3,047,449	0.92%	0.40	30,207	181,997	189,857	247,046	1.37	103,459	1,585,112	650,262	1,934,562	0.88	66,455	795,954	513,369	943,173	2,425,302	0.88	66,455	763,482	322,131	1,145,386	4,675,337
23	03/20/20	4.54	3.94	3.45	4.42	0.60	45,310	826,917	284,786	1,185,119	3,624,048	1.10%	0.12	9,062	191,059	56,957	293,789	1.09	82,314	1,667,426	517,361	2,300,595	0.60	45,310	841,265	350,025	1,083,421	2,785,941	0.60	45,310	808,792	219,635	1,443,096	5,890,556
24	03/21/20
25	03/22/20
26	03/23/20
27	03/24/20
28	03/25/20
29	03/26/20