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Main
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Legend
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Fact / estimate (dark blue = estimate w/ different formula)
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Calculation (dark green = calculation w/ different formula)
Reference year for values below:
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Assumption2050
Don't change this cell on the left. Reference year can be changed here
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Target with potential for explosive burden
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Cause, disease, or etiology. See the note in this cell for why we excluded some potential targets
Underestimation may occur. We relied heavily on Saloni Datani's dataset, which "shows when each vaccine was introduced for humans, for the first time. [...] The dataset also shows new versions of some vaccines and when they were made available. This hopefully covers most of them but is likely incomplete, and it was harder to track down the exact years for several historical ones." Also, note that we didn't count vaccines that were available only in very few countries, and that likely need more studies to be widely available (this was the case for Shigella and Hepatitis E). Similarly, we didn't count the Adenovirus vaccine, since it's only available for United States military personnel. See more details in the "Invention tracker" tab.
DALY figures come from GBD, or are extrapolated from it. On all columns, blank = not available.
*G-FINDER estimates, which follow 3 main inclusion criteria: disease affects LMICs disproportionally, a new product is needed in that product category, and there is "market failure" (i.e. there is an insufficient commercial market to attract R&D by private industry). All spending is currency and inflation-adjusted to reflect 2023 USD values. Also, we excluded cross-cutting funds (e.g., platform technologies) or funds categorized for more than one disease/etiology. Lastly, a match between GBD and G-FINDER terminology had to be made, resulting in some over/underestimates, noted here.**Note that this also follows G-FINDER's inclusion criteria. This includes Vaccines (~96% of spending), vaccine-related platform technologies (~3%), adjuvants and immunomodulators ( ~1%), and reservoir targeted vaccines (~0.1%). G-FINDER estimates*
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Target# of vaccines widely available (lower bound)Obs.DALYs (2019)DALYs (2021)DALYs u5s only (2021)DALYs (2040)DALYs (2050)Source for forecastsR&D funding* per year (2019 to 2023 average, specific to disease/etiology)*Note on fundingR&D$* per year/2040 DALYsR&D$* per year/2050 DALYsVaccine-related R&D funding* per year (2019 to 2023 average, specific to disease/etiology)**Share of vaccine-related R&D funding**
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Malaria249,717,29455,174,06138,029,57635,735,88633,507,519GBD$702,610,130$19.7$21.0$139,126,83320%
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Tuberculosis149,063,61846,977,4635,170,59429,760,87524,826,631GBD$795,436,346$26.7$32.0$102,395,61413%
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Hepatitis B3Total burden was considered, not only acute hepatitis. GBD includes the Hepatitis D burden here.21,436,50821,465,451507,15822,748,46323,043,161GBD$20,932,699$0.9$0.9N/A
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Hepatitis C0Total burden was considered, not only acute hepatitis.14,897,95615,187,84850,24419,693,05121,817,785GBD$17,582,860$0.9$0.8$7,266,43441%
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HIV/AIDS044,316,78340,266,7921,838,35122,130,77618,416,177GBD$1,541,351,590$69.6$83.7$785,548,67751%
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Streptococcus pneumoniae627,385,43924,287,17413,769,82819,270,85417,809,637Rough extrapolation$48,013,036$2.5$2.7$43,724,57491%
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Group A streptococcus020,333,37420,139,554288,23018,170,42517,374,082
GBD + rough RHD to Strep A burden multiplier
$13,987,520Probably an underestimate of funding, as it's funding to Rheumatic fever only. For the R&D$/DALYs ratio, we considered the burden of rheumatic hearth disease as a proxy$1.2$1.2$13,987,520100%
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Rotavirus416,227,10313,449,37710,788,93711,418,84710,553,010Rough extrapolation$31,605,385$2.8$3.0$29,950,38995%
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Staphylococcus aureus013,451,70012,556,1094,770,4319,465,8248,748,076Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Influenza1112,373,7934,163,2502,460,8338,707,3128,047,078Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Pertussis53 specific against this disease + 2 combination vaccines (Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis / DTP / Triple antigen vaccine + DTaP / Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular Pertussis vaccine)12,047,1924,614,0863,975,7628,477,4867,834,679Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Shigella0Shigella vaccines are only available in Russia and China. More in the "Invention tracker" tab.10,881,6949,409,7237,344,3937,657,3377,076,718Rough extrapolation$51,453,086$6.7$7.3$35,463,81669%
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Klebsiella pneumoniae09,624,5088,668,1435,105,7516,772,6686,259,129Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Adenovirus0
CDC: "Adenovirus vaccine is only available for United States military personnel. There is currently no adenovirus vaccine available to the general public."
9,548,1358,653,3757,315,6526,718,9256,209,461Rough extrapolationN/AThere's no data for this specific target. However, for the R&D$/DALYs ratio, we provided the ratio for Diarrheal diseases as a proxy$3.6$3.7N/A
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Cryptosporidium08,617,3667,366,6746,123,8346,063,9525,604,152Rough extrapolation$22,017,741$3.6$3.9$498,1692%
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Respiratory syncytial virus27,410,1512,591,5072,487,0395,214,4484,819,061Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Syphilis010,553,33311,138,63710,799,3846,174,3254,329,256
GBD + rough burden multiplier due to stillbirths
$9,028,011$1.5$2.1$3,980,68344%
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Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS)05,016,1384,740,2352,893,3454,522,0614,154,813GBD$10,438,072Overestimated funds, as it's considered Non-typhoidal Salmonella as a whole$2.3$2.5$6,356,76861%
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Norovirus06,288,1045,687,7642,684,0194,424,8754,089,357Rough extrapolationN/AThere's no data for this specific target. However, for the R&D$/DALYs ratio, we provided the ratio for Diarrheal diseases as a proxy$3.6$3.7N/A
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Enterotoxigenic E coli06,178,9695,384,1354,129,5504,348,0774,018,383Rough extrapolation$9,418,748$2.2$2.3$8,747,16393%
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E coli causing Meningitis/LRI05,458,2454,935,5342,910,5753,840,9113,549,673Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Enteropathogenic E coli05,241,1834,461,5094,169,5023,688,1673,408,511Rough extrapolationN/AThere's no data for this specific target. However, for the R&D$/DALYs ratio, we provided the ratio for Diarrheal diseases as a proxy$3.6$3.7N/A
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Typhoid fever2There's more than 2 now - many suppliers for basically the same vaccine8,080,3267,087,7333,390,6884,396,6093,351,728GBDN/AN/A
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Cholera2Has more than 2 vaccines, depends how you count4,823,5134,523,5852,283,1833,394,2573,136,887Rough extrapolation$39,465,145$11.6$12.6$9,096,57623%
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Pseudomonas aeruginosa04,401,6504,039,6982,061,2343,097,3962,862,535Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Campylobacter04,306,7903,859,5862,315,1253,030,6442,800,845Rough extrapolationN/AThere's no data for this specific target. However, for the R&D$/DALYs ratio, we provided the ratio for Diarrheal diseases as a proxy$3.6$3.7N/A
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Group B streptococcus02 vaccines close to the finish line as of Aug 20234,081,4413,677,8222,450,8012,872,0682,654,293Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Haemophilus influenzae23,760,0173,320,1042,240,1932,645,8862,445,261Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Dengue22,236,3162,076,525534,2012,306,0682,378,373GBD$93,102,063$40.4$39.1N/A
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Mycoplasma03,185,1062,851,4051,655,1302,241,3272,071,377Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Acinetobacter baumannii02,891,4222,729,0721,255,7782,034,6641,880,385Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Schistosomiasis01,847,7571,746,33331,3791,785,9311,864,495GBD$31,518,762$17.6$16.9$6,200,35020%
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Cysticercosis01,193,5341,235,9395,4081,584,5911,798,289GBD$6,565,213$4.1$3.7N/A
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Chlamydia spp02,756,7082,485,1651,603,3211,939,8671,792,776Rough extrapolation$23,090,873$11.9$12.9$10,885,40147%
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Entamoeba02,651,7942,376,8271,441,1621,866,0401,724,547Rough extrapolationN/AThere's no data for this specific target. However, for the R&D$/DALYs ratio, we provided the ratio for Diarrheal diseases as a proxy$3.6$3.7N/A
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Neisseria meningitidis62,360,8452,154,0721,079,9921,661,3031,535,334Rough extrapolation$9,527,604$5.7$6.2$7,224,33776%
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Onchocerciasis01,243,3611,262,98801,293,3381,285,991GBD$18,283,150$14.1$14.2$1,225,5237%
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Legionella spp01,934,8201,869,848546,2121,361,5131,258,276Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Leishmaniasis0786,012781,188153,902844,5311,125,745GBD$46,945,051$55.6$41.7$2,058,9744%
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Measles2MMR + specific vaccine8,227,4224,878,5274,248,9991,836,1041,063,582GBDN/AN/A
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Aeromonas01,330,3531,124,237960,827936,156865,172Rough extrapolationN/AThere's no data for this specific target. However, for the R&D$/DALYs ratio, we provided the ratio for Diarrheal diseases as a proxy$3.6$3.7N/A
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Varicella and herpes zoster31 vaccine for Varicella, 2 for Zoster927,546886,067388,955792,490757,692GBDN/AN/A
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Acute hepatitis A22,158,2651,817,363641,235874,413726,554GBDN/AN/A
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Enterobacter spp01,103,1701,014,909534,036776,289717,427Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Food-borne trematodiases0990,276998,0291,522776,015644,689GBDN/AN/A
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Listeria monocytogenes0776,950699,510392,432546,732505,276Rough extrapolationN/AN/A
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Paratyphoid fever01,170,7511,011,842401,957636,689480,820GBD$62,081,927Overestimated funds, as it's considered funding for Typhoid and paratyphoid. For the R&D$/DALYs ratio, we considered the Typhoid and paratyphoid burden as a whole$12.3$16.2$29,832,80748%
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Rabies3605,986569,55083,642453,108414,329GBDN/AN/A
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Tetanus42 specific against this disease + 2 combination vaccines (Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis / DTP / Triple antigen vaccine + DTaP / Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular Pertussis vaccine)1,606,4781,341,513791,283554,464388,581GBDN/AN/A
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Trichomoniasis0266,077274,3620345,401373,327GBDN/AN/A
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Genital herpes0252,109259,9170337,136371,075GBD$47,974,152Underestimated funds, as it's only considered funds to the Herpes Simplex Virus 2 (HSV-2)$142.3$129.3$7,492,25316%
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Ascariasis0725,201647,525269,768428,440355,741GBD$1,810,967$4.2$5.1N/A
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Hookworm disease0597,319540,19680,532300,317240,732GBD$4,573,164$15.2$19.0$1,145,32125%
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Lymphatic filariasis01,365,0091,314,56334,418424,284238,939GBD$15,750,080$37.1$65.9N/A
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Chagas disease0237,670238,589111232,319210,995GBD$48,515,251$208.8$229.9$2,485,6165%
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Acute hepatitis E0Approved in Pakistan and China only (as of Nov 2024)249,108229,62589,905191,749185,299GBDN/AN/A
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Trachoma0123,777123,1900150,497183,608GBD$1,034,510$6.9$5.6$914,83988%
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Clostridium difficile0274,896284,0518,784193,442178,774Rough extrapolationN/AThere's no data for this specific target. However, for the R&D$/DALYs ratio, we provided the ratio for Diarrheal diseases as a proxy$3.6$3.7N/A
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Yellow fever1337,927317,79244,592180,701158,062GBDN/AN/A
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Diphtheria42 specific against this disease + 2 combination vaccines (Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis / DTP / Triple antigen vaccine + DTaP / Diphtheria-Tetanus-acellular Pertussis vaccine)429,610318,204257,011188,045150,737GBDN/AN/A
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Trichuriasis0193,987193,9199,777152,499132,900GBD$3,113,299$20.4$23.4N/A
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Ebola2Part of CEPI's priority pathogens202,4832,602365142,485131,681Rough extrapolation$255,548,506$1,793.5$1,940.7$102,765,61240%
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African trypanosomiasis052,50561,962859115,250128,159GBD$33,457,065$290.3$261.1$160,6100%
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Cystic echinococcosis0109,805105,07213,902114,516119,351GBDN/AN/A
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Gonococcal infection071,08672,322046,05037,124GBD$64,797,729Underestimated funds, as it's only considered funds to Gonorrhea$1,407.1$1,745.4$33,633,59252%
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Leprosy022,49021,4281722,43523,924GBD$12,787,872$570.0$534.5$497,0854%
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Zika virus033215889234216Rough extrapolation$96,162,370$411,610$445,381$31,130,48532%
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Smallpox3Declared eradicated in 1980N/AN/A
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Anthrax4N/AN/A
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Japanese encephalitis3N/AN/A
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Polio3N/AN/A
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Mumps2MMR + specific vaccineN/AN/A
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Rubella2MMR + specific vaccineN/AN/A
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Tick-borne encephalitis3N/AN/A
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Mpox1Part of CEPI's priority pathogens$20,832,456$5,584,84027%
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Lyme0N/AN/A
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Chikungunya1Part of CEPI's priority pathogens$42,456,999$18,696,03444%
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HPV3$122,469,192$65,195,40953%
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Hepatitis Delta0N/AN/A
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MERS0Part of CEPI's priority pathogens$16,839,283$6,715,91040%
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Nipah and Hendra0Part of CEPI's priority pathogens$31,548,877Overestimate of funds, as funding for henipaviral diseases as a whole is considered. Most of these funds are directed to Nipah (>85%)$6,037,06619%
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Lassa fever0Part of CEPI's priority pathogens$32,683,681$6,460,77820%
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Rift Valley0Part of CEPI's priority pathogens$13,609,441$9,228,34168%
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Epstein-Barr Virus0N/AN/A
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