ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
Montana Timing Analysis
2
G. Agustin Markarian
3
3/10/2024
4
The principal finding is that the on-cycle electorate is vastly larger than the off-cycle electorate: almost twice as large.
5
Key findings below are shaded in green.
6
Overall Turnout by Election Type
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Voter Turnout by General Election Type with Full Statistics
34
cycleturnout of registered voters(max of error bar)(min of error bar)
35
Off-cycle44.7%46.5%42.9%
36
On-cycle78.5%80.3%76.8%
37
38
Turnout of Registered Voters by City by General Election Type
39
CITYOff-cycleOn-cycle
40
Total of six cities45%79%
41
Belgrade36%75%
42
Billings47%76%
43
Bozeman44%79%
44
Great Falls45%79%
45
Helena50%82%
46
Missoula47%80%
47
48
A secondary finding is that the on-cycle electorate is younger than the off-cycle electorate.
49
Composition of the Electorate
50
Age
51
52
Source: G. Agustin Markarian analysis of Catalist data for Sightline.
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Share of Voters by Age by General Election Type with Full Statistics