Malaria Vaccines Supplemental Calcs July 2022 (public)

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O
1	Phase III 4-year follow-up results for severe malaria
2			C3C group (control)			R3C group (3 dose)			R3R group (4 dose)			Point estimate of VE unadjusted for covariates R3C vs C3C		Point estimate of VE unadjusted for covariates R3R vs C3C
3			N (sample size)	n (# cases)	Proportion affected*	N	n	Proportion affected*	N	n	Proportion affected*	VE (95% CI)	p value	VE (95% CI)	p value
4		5–17 months age category
5		Month 0 to study end	2974	171	0.06	2972	169	0.06	2976	116	0.04	1·1% (−23·0 to 20·5)	0·96	32·2% (13·7 to 46·9)	0·0009
6		Months 0–32	2974	152	0.05	2972	145	0.05	2976	99	0.03	4·5% (−20·6 to 24·5)	0·72	34·9% (15·6 to 50·0)	0·0006
7		Months 0–20†	2974	118	0.04	5949	156	0.03	5949	156	0.03	33·9% (15·3 to 48·3)	0·0007	..	..
8		Months 21–32	2701	42	0.02	2717	61	0.02	2679	43	0.02	−44·4% (−119·0 to 4·1)	0·073	−3·2% (−61·8 to 34·1)	0·91
9		Month 33 to study end	2309	20	0.01	2267	31	0.01	2236	23	0.01	−57·9% (−192·0 to 12·8)	0·12	−18·8% (−128·0 to 37·6)	0·65
10		Month 21 to study end	2702	62	0.02	2719	88	0.03	2681	64	0.02	−41·0% (−98·5 to −0·8)	0·038	−4·0% (−50·0 to 27·8)	0·86
11		GiveWell calculations
12		Minimum cases from Month 0-20	2974	109	0.037	2972	81	0.027	2976	52	0.017	25.64%		52.33%
13
14			Control group			Average of treatment groups			Combined VE
15		Average of R3C and R3R, month 0-20	2974	109	0.037	2974	66.5	0.0224	39.0%
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17			VE against severe malaria, 3 dose group	VE against severe malaria, 4 dose group	Subjective Weight		VE against severe malaria, (0-20 months) 3 dose group	VE against severe malaria (0-20 months), 4 dose group	Subjective Weight
18		4 dose group "got lucky", its results from months 0-20 should look like 3 dose group	1.1%	15.3%	40%		25.6%	25.6%	40%
19		3 dose group "got unlucky", its results from months 0-20 should look like 4 dose group	27.1%	32.2%	60%		52.3%	52.3%	60%
20		Weighted estimate of VE against severe malaria	16.7%	25.4%			42%	42%
21
22		Check: Does this recreate the VE of the published results?	1.10%	32.2%
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