Focaldata conducted a survey of 2,064 adults aged 18+ in the UK between the 14th-20th 2026. Data are weighted by age, gender, education, region, and recalled past vote

To ensure representation, demographic quotas were placed on age, gender, education, ethnicity, voter registration, region, 2020 past presidential vote, and 2024 past presidential vote.

Results were weighted by trivariate 2024 vote, age, gender targets, bivariate 2024 vote and ethnicity targets, region, education, and voter registration status.

Understanding the data

Each table contains a 'Total' column which provides an overview of the data. This is then broken down into individual sub-groups in columns along the table.

%s and counts are provided at a weighted level e.g., what the total population looks like for that group. Unweighted counts are provided at the bottom of each column.

Caution should be applied for any group with fewer than 30 respondents (unweighted n=30) when interpreting findings.

Percentages are rounded to the nearest %, full decimal breakdowns can be seen by clicking the data. 

SUMs are used to combine answer options into summary groups e.g., 'Very likely' and 'Fairly likely' into a 'Likely' category. Due to rounding, these may not always sum to 100%.

Significance testing

Significance testing is conducted at two levels between columns in the data tables using z-tests for proportions and t-tests for means. Each column is assigned a letter.

Letters shown in capitals indicate a 99% confidence rate that the difference seen between the specified columns has not occurred only by chance. 

Letters shown in lowercase indicate a 95% confidence rate that the difference seen between the specified columns has not occurred only by chance. 

A "-" is used to indicate that no test has been conducted (e.g., there is only one subgroup). A blank cell indicates that there are no significant differences.