2016 Presidential True Vote Forecast Model
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https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ib27G_vDNtQDNLDR8rXiU2LJLCn7Hspd4g5SKtQw1CM/pub
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Input Data in Grey Cells Only2016
Presidential True Vote Forecast Model
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Election2016
Presidential
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Method (1 or 2)
2True Vote
True Vote
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Prior election
201220152012
True Vote
VotesAliveReturnVotesPctSandersClintonTrumpTurnout
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DemocratObamaSandersObama55.0%71,02368,18265,45565,45549.2%45%50%5%96%
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RepublicanRomneyClintonRomney43.2%55,81153,57951,43651,43638.7%25%10%65%96%
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OtherOtherTrumpOther1.8%2,2992,2072,1182,1181.6%60%35%5%96%
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Votes(000)129,133133,000
Did Not Vote (new)
--13,99110.5%50%25%25%
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2012ObamaRomneyOtherMargin
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Recorded 51.03%47.19%1.78%TOTAL129,133123,968119,009133,000
True Share
38.0%31.7%30.3%6.4%
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True Vote 55.00%43.22%1.78%
Vote (000)
50,58042,11040,3108,470
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Voter turnout
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Obama96%
Sensitivity Analysis
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Romney96%
Based on
2012
True Vote
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Other96%
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SandersSanders share of New voters (DNV)SandersSanders share of returning Obama voters
Sanders
Obama share in 2012
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Dem % Unctd
75%Share of46%48%50%52%54%Share of41%43%45%47%49%
Share of
51%53%55%57%59%
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Voter Mortality
4.0%RomneySanders Vote ShareRomneySanders Vote Share
Romney
Sanders Vote Share
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Margin of Error
3.0%27%38.4%38.6%38.8%39.0%39.2%27%36.8%37.8%38.8%39.8%40.8%27%38.2%38.5%38.8%39.1%39.4%
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26%38.0%38.2%38.4%38.6%38.8%26%36.4%37.4%38.4%39.4%40.4%26%37.7%38.1%38.4%38.8%39.1%y240.932
G$13*(1-$B$22)/$J$13
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CALCULATION METHOD25%37.6%37.8%38.0%38.2%38.5%25%36.1%37.0%38.0%39.0%40.0%25%37.3%37.7%38.0%38.4%38.7%y250.062
$Y$24*$D$13*$B$17*$L$10+$Y$30*$L$11
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Returning voters based on prior24%37.2%37.4%37.6%37.9%38.1%24%35.7%36.7%37.6%38.6%39.6%24%36.9%37.3%37.6%38.0%38.4%y260.403
$Y$24*$B$17*$L$8
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1 Recorded vote23%36.8%37.0%37.3%37.5%37.7%23%35.3%36.3%37.3%38.2%39.2%23%36.5%36.9%37.3%37.7%38.0% y270.492
U$25*Y24*$B$17
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2 True Vote
Margin (000)
Margin (000)
Margin (000)
y280.387
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27%9,4089,96810,52711,08711,64727%5,2917,90910,52713,14615,76427%8,8149,67110,52711,38412,241y290.016
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26%8,3798,9399,49910,05810,61826%4,2626,8809,49912,11714,73526%7,6908,5949,49910,40311,308
1-y27-y28-y29
0.105
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25%7,3517,9108,4709,0309,58925%3,2345,8528,47011,08813,70625%6,5667,5188,4709,42210,374
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24%6,3226,8827,4418,0018,56124%2,2054,8237,44110,05912,67824%5,4426,4427,4418,4419,441
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23%5,2935,8536,4136,9727,53223%1,1763,7946,4139,03111,64923%4,3185,3656,4137,4608,507
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Sanders Returning Voter TurnoutSandersSanders share of returning Obama votersObama share in 2012
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Romney94%95%96%97%98%Share of41%43%45%47%49%Obama51%53%55%57%59%
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TurnoutTrump Vote ShareRomneySanders Popular Vote Win Probability
Turnout
Sanders Vote Share
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94%38.3%38.3%38.2%38.2%38.2%27%99.5%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%98%38.0%38.3%38.7%39.1%39.4%
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95%38.2%38.2%38.1%38.1%38.1%26%98.2%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%97%37.6%38.0%38.4%38.7%39.1%0.932
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96%38.1%38.1%38.0%38.0%38.0%25%94.4%99.8%100.0%100.0%100.0%96%37.3%37.7%38.0%38.4%38.7%0.062
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97%38.0%38.0%37.9%37.9%37.9%24%86.1%99.1%100.0%100.0%100.0%95%37.0%37.3%37.7%38.1%38.4%0.419
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98%37.9%37.9%37.8%37.8%37.8%23%71.8%96.9%99.9%100.0%100.0%94%36.7%37.0%37.4%37.7%38.1%0.492
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Margin
Margin (000)
0.387
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94%9,1339,0658,9978,9298,86198%8,2899,26110,23311,20512,1770.016
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95%8,8708,8028,7338,6658,59797%7,4288,3899,35110,31311,2750.105
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96%8,6068,5388,4708,4028,33496%6,5667,5188,4709,42210,374
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97%8,3438,2758,2068,1388,07095%5,7046,6467,5888,5319,473
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98%8,0798,0117,9437,8757,80794%4,8425,7756,7077,6398,571
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2012True VoteVotesAliveTurnoutVotesPctSandersClintonTrump
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Obama55.0%71,02368,18296%65,45549.2%45%50%5%
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Romney43.2%55,81153,57996%51,43638.7%25%10%65%
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Other1.8%2,2992,20796%2,1181.6%60%35%5%
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Did Not Vote (new)
--13,99110.5%50%25%25%
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Margin
70
TOTAL129,133123,9688,470133,000True Vote50,58042,11040,310
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38.0%31.7%30.3%
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Recorded
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