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Discounted Cash Flow Analysis: XPEL Inc. (XPEL:NASDAQ)
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Income Statement
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( In Thousands of USD )Company Information and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Output
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Income StatementHistoricalProjected
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FY 2017FY 2018FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026FY 2027FY 2028FY 2029FY 2030Terminal Value- Perpetuity Growth MethodXPEL Inc.
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Total Revenue67296.8109920.2129932.7158924.1259262.7295984.3338005.6386101.0421773.0460860.9503854.3528380.6554107.3575552.3
Perpetuity Growth Rate
2%
Company Name:
XPEL Inc.
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Revenue Growth-63.3%18.2%22.3%63.1%14.2%14.2%14.2%9.2%9.3%9.3%4.9%4.9%3.9%Ticker:
XPEL: NASDAQ
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Baseline Terminal Value
$957,366
Current Share Price:
$70.5
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Product Revenue56348.095526.1112204.6136261.9217282.4249874.8287356.0330459.4363376.1399571.7439528.9461505.3484580.6503963.8
Present Terminal Value
$436,287
Discount Rate (WACC):
9.1%
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Sum of Present Value of Cash Flows
$211,906
Effective Tax Rate:
21.0%
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Paint Protection Film49489.485495.397341.8110786.1169879.4195361.3224665.5258365.3284072.7312337.9343571.7360750.3378787.8393939.3
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Growth Rate (%)-72.8%13.9%13.8%53.3%15.0%15.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%
Implied Enterprise Value
$648,193
Market Capitalization
$1,945,307
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Window Film5103.07309.711384.420950.538363.444117.950735.658345.964180.570598.677658.481541.485618.489043.2
(+) Cash and Cash Equivalents
$10,600
(-) Cash and Cash Equivalents
-$10,600
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Growth Rate (%)-43.2%55.7%84.0%83.1%15.0%15.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%
(+) Equity Investments
$0
(-) Equity Investments
$0
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(+) Net Operating Losses
$0
(-) Net Operating Losses
$0
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Other1755.62721.13478.44525.39039.610395.511954.913748.115122.916635.218298.719213.720174.320981.3
(-) Total Debt
-$47,880
(+) Total Debt
$47,880
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Growth Rate (%)-55.0%27.8%30.1%99.8%15.0%15.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%
(-) Non-Controlling Interests
$0
(+) Non-Controlling Interests
$0
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Service Revenue10948.814394.117728.122662.241980.346109.550649.655641.658396.961289.264325.466875.369526.871588.5
Implied Equity Value
$610,913
Enterprise Value
$1,982,587
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Shares outstanding
27612.6
Shares outstanding
27612.6
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Software2820.72566.93263.43489.34373.04810.35291.35820.56111.56417.16737.97007.47287.77506.4
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Growth Rate (%)--9.0%27.1%6.9%25.3%10.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%
Implied Share Price
$22.1
Current Share Price
$70.5
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Implied Share Price (Weighted)
$31.11
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Cutbank Credits4145.76197.27253.67784.512371.913609.114970.016467.017290.318154.919062.619825.120618.121236.7
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Growth Rate (%)-49.5%17.0%7.3%58.9%10.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%
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Operating Metrics
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Installation Labor3709.55211.66620.510925.524252.726678.029345.832280.333894.435589.137368.538863.340417.841630.3
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Growth Rate (%)-40.5%27.0%65.0%122.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%( In Thousands of USD )
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Operating MetricsHistoricalProjected
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Training272.9418.4590.6462.9982.71012.21042.51073.81100.71128.21156.41179.51203.11215.1
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Growth Rate (%)-53.3%41.2%-21.6%112.3%3.0%3.0%3.0%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.0%2.0%1.0%FY 2017FY 2018FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026FY 2027FY 2028FY 2029FY 2030
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Product Revenue
69
Cost of Goods Sold50613.276484.086426.6104899.4166586.1189430.0216323.6247104.6263608.1288038.1314908.9322312.2338005.5351086.9
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% of Revenue75.2%69.6%66.5%66.0%64.3%64.0%64.0%64.0%62.5%62.5%62.5%61.0%61.0%61.0%Paint Protection Film49489.485495.397341.8110786.1169879.4195361.3258365.3284072.7312337.9343571.7360750.3378787.8393939.3
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Growth Rate (%)-72.8%13.9%13.8%53.3%15.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%
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Cost of Product Sales48051.573656.482308.398502.3151285.6177590.6202803.4231660.6248846.1271907.9297274.0306460.8321382.3333820.3
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% of Revenue71.4%67.0%63.3%62.0%58.4%60.0%60.0%60.0%59.0%59.0%59.0%58.0%58.0%58.0%Window Film5103.07309.711384.420950.538363.444117.958345.964180.570598.677658.481541.485618.489043.2
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Growth Rate (%)-43.2%55.7%84.0%83.1%15.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%
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Cost of Service2561.82827.64118.46397.215300.511839.413520.215444.014762.116130.117634.915851.416623.217266.6
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% of Revenue3.8%2.6%3.2%4.0%5.9%4.0%4.0%4.0%3.5%3.5%3.5%3.0%3.0%3.0%Other1755.62721.13478.44525.39039.610395.513748.115122.916635.218298.719213.720174.320981.3
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Growth Rate (%)-55.0%27.8%30.1%99.8%15.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%
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Gross Profit16683.633436.243506.154024.792676.6106554.3121682.0138996.4158164.9172822.8188945.4206068.5216101.9224465.4Service Revenue
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Gross Margin24.8%30.4%33.5%34.0%35.7%36.0%36.0%36.0%37.5%37.5%37.5%39.0%39.0%39.0%
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Software2820.72566.93263.43489.34373.04810.35820.56111.56417.16737.97007.47287.77506.4
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Operating Expenses14472.321630.626418.930655.152561.462156.770981.281081.284354.692172.2100770.9100392.3105280.4109354.9Growth Rate (%)--9.0%27.1%6.9%25.3%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%
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% of Total Revenue21.5%19.7%20.3%19.3%20.3%21.0%21.0%21.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%19.0%19.0%19.0%
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Cutbank Credits4145.76197.27253.67784.512371.913609.116467.017290.318154.919062.619825.120618.121236.7
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Sales and Marketing4945.46802.27584.49748.318273.220718.923660.427027.127415.229956.032750.531702.833246.434533.1Growth Rate (%)-49.5%17.0%7.3%58.9%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%
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% of Total Revenue7.3%6.2%5.8%6.1%7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%6.5%6.5%6.5%6.0%6.0%6.0%
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Installation Labor3709.55211.66620.510925.524252.726678.032280.333894.435589.137368.538863.340417.841630.3
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General and Administrative9526.914828.418834.520906.834288.241437.847320.854054.156939.462216.268020.368689.572034.074821.8Growth Rate (%)-40.5%27.0%65.0%122.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%
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% of Total Revenue14.2%13.5%14.5%13.2%13.2%14.0%14.0%14.0%13.5%13.5%13.5%13.0%13.0%13.0%
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Training272.9418.4590.6462.9982.71012.21073.81100.71128.21156.41179.51203.11215.1
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Operating Income (EBIT)2211.311805.617087.223369.640115.244397.650700.857915.173810.380650.788174.5105676.1110821.5115110.5Growth Rate (%)-53.3%41.2%-21.6%112.3%3.0%3.0%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.0%2.0%1.0%
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Operating Margin 3.3%10.7%13.2%14.7%15.5%15.0%15.0%15.0%17.5%17.5%17.5%20.0%20.0%20.0%
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Interest Expense on Debt and Leases328.4 168.4 96.6 249.5 302.7 376.3338.0386.1421.8460.9503.9528.4554.1575.6
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Loss (gain) on sale of property, plant and equipment(13.3)25.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
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Foreign exchange loss (gain)(252.2)156.3 40.3 316.1 373.0 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
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Pre-Tax Income2148.311455.216950.222804.039439.644021.350362.857529.073388.580189.887670.7105147.7110267.4114534.9Sensitivity Analysis
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Income Tax Expense1154.22760.12955.44522.77873.19244.510576.212081.115411.616839.918410.822081.023156.124052.3
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% of Pre-Tax Income53.7%24.1%17.4%19.8%20.0%21.0%21.0%21.0%21.0%21.0%21.0%21.0%21.0%21.0%Perpetuity Growth Rate
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Net Income994.18695.113994.918281.331566.534776.839786.645447.957976.963349.969259.883066.787111.290482.6Weighted Average
Cost of Capital (WACC)
$22.1 -3.0%-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
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Net Profit Margin1.5%7.9%10.8%11.5%12.2%11.7%11.8%11.8%13.7%13.7%13.7%15.7%15.7%15.7%6.0%$23.2 $24.2 $25.3 $26.6 $28.0 $29.7 $34.0 $36.7 $40.1 $44.3 $49.8 $57.0 $67.1
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6.5%$21.6 $22.4 $23.4 $24.4 $25.7 $27.1 $30.5 $32.8 $35.4 $38.7 $42.7 $48.0 $54.9
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Average Basic Outstanding Shares27326.327612.627612.627612.627612.627612.627612.627612.627612.627612.627612.627612.627612.627612.67.0%$20.1 $20.8 $21.6 $22.5 $23.6 $24.8 $27.6 $29.4 $31.6 $34.1 $37.3 $41.2 $46.2
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7.5%$18.7 $19.4 $20.1 $20.9 $21.7 $22.7 $25.2 $26.7 $28.4 $30.5 $32.9 $36.0 $39.7
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Basic EPS0.040.310.510.661.141.261.441.652.102.292.513.013.153.288.0%$17.5 $18.1 $18.7 $19.4 $20.1 $21.0 $23.0 $24.3 $25.7 $27.4 $29.4 $31.8 $34.7
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8.5%$16.4 $16.9 $17.4 $18.0 $18.7 $19.4 $21.2 $22.2 $23.4 $24.8 $26.4 $28.4 $30.6
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9.0%$15.4 $15.8 $16.3 $16.8 $17.4 $18.1 $19.6 $20.5 $21.5 $22.6 $24.0 $25.5 $27.4
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9.5%$14.5 $14.9 $15.3 $15.8 $16.3 $16.8 $18.1 $18.9 $19.7 $20.7 $21.8 $23.1 $24.6
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10.0%$13.6 $14.0 $14.4 $14.8 $15.2 $15.7 $16.8 $17.5 $18.2 $19.1 $20.0 $21.1 $22.3
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10.5%$12.9 $13.2 $13.5 $13.9 $14.3 $14.7 $15.7 $16.3 $16.9 $17.6 $18.4 $19.3 $20.4
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11.0%$12.2 $12.4 $12.7 $13.1 $13.4 $13.8 $14.7 $15.2 $15.7 $16.3 $17.0 $17.8 $18.7
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Unlevered Cash Flow Statement 11.5%$11.5 $11.7 $12.0 $12.3 $12.6 $13.0 $13.7 $14.2 $14.6 $15.2 $15.8 $16.4 $17.2
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12.0%$10.9 $11.1 $11.4 $11.6 $11.9 $12.2 $12.9 $13.3 $13.7 $14.2 $14.7 $15.2 $15.9
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( In Thousands of USD )
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Unlevered Free Cash FlowHistoricalProjected
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Average Cost of Product Sales (% of Revenue)
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FY 2017FY 2018FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026FY 2027FY 2028FY 2029FY 2030
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Weighted Average
Cost of Capital (WACC)
$22.1 55.0%56.0%57.0%58.0%59.0%60.0%62.0%63.0%64.0%65.0%66.0%67.0%68.0%
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Total Revenue 67296.8109920.2129932.7158924.1259262.7295984.3338005.6386101.0421773.0460860.9503854.3528380.6554107.3575552.36.0%$60.8 $57.5 $54.2 $50.9 $47.6 $44.3 $37.7 $34.4 $31.2 $27.9 $24.6 $21.3 $18.0
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6.5%$53.2 $50.3 $47.4 $44.5 $41.6 $38.7 $32.8 $29.9 $27.0 $24.1 $21.2 $18.3 $15.4
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Operating Income (EBIT)2211.311805.617087.223369.640115.244397.650700.857915.173810.380650.788174.5105676.1110821.5115110.57.0%$47.2 $44.6 $42.0 $39.4 $36.8 $34.1 $28.9 $26.3 $23.7 $21.1 $18.5 $15.9 $13.3