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2024 U.S. Presidential Election Results Calculator
by Michael Bluejay
Electoral votes
Current margin(241—need 29)StateMost accurate in 2020That pollster's 2024 result
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Last update:
6/14/24PA190.61.8GANYT/SIennaNo poll since 9/21
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NC160.20.2CBSNo poll since 9/24
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BidenTrumpGA16-0.6-0.5Atlanta JournalTrump +4
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AZ111.41.3AZNBC/MaristTrump +1
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Without RFK Jr. in the race
NV60.60.7WITrafalgar GroupTie
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251287
Electoral votes based on swing state polls (see analysis below)
PATrafalgar GroupTrump +3
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241297
Electoral votes based on swing state polls, if polls are inaccurate as in 2020
NVTrafalgar GroupTie
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44.6%45.4%
Popular vote (RealClearPolitics polling average) • Lastest poll:
6/11/24EmersonHarris +1
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MI153.33.3LVRJNo 2024 poll
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With RFK Jr. in the race
WI103.83.7NCRasmussenTrump +3
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270268Electoral votes based on swing state polls (see analysis below)FL303.94
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260278
Electoral votes based on swing state polls, if polls are inaccurate as in 2020
TX4055
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36.2%54.4%
ElectionBettingOdds.com
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34.3%51.3%
Average of 9 betting sites
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4352PredictIt
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39.7%42.3%
Popular vote, with JFK in race (RCP avg.) • Latest poll:
5/30/24
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43.546.5
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Swing state polls analysis
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This expains how I arrived at the numbers above. Unless you want the details, all you need is the summary above.

Nationwide polling averages aren't helpful b/c the election isn't decided by the popular vote, it's decided by the electoral college. So, this analysis figures the electoral vote count. It does this by looking only at the polls in the 5 swing states, because those are the ones which will decide the election. From the 45 "safe" states, Biden starts with 241 electoral votes and Trump starts with 235. (This includes that since 2020, a small number of states saw small changes in their total number of electoral votes.) We then add the electoral votes for the five states below as predicted by current polling.

2020 polling in those states were off by a little to a lot, depending on the state. So, the results are given two ways: First, assuming current polling is correct, and second, adjusting those polls for the polling error in 2020.

I use the last month's polls from FiveThirtyEight.com for each of the 5 swing states (with the end defined defined as the date of the most recent poll, not necessarily today). If there is no poll within the last month, I use the most recent.
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Without RFK Jr.
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State2020 pollsBiden actualError2024 polls2024 if same errorLatest pollElectoral votesUsing actual pollsUsing adjusted polls
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Blue=Error favors Biden
Red=Error favors Trump ↓
Poll leaderPts. aheadBiden positionBidenTrumpBidenTrump
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GATrump +1.00.24-0.76Trump3.5-2.746/3/24161616RCP538
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AZBiden +0.90.310.59Trump2.7-3.296/4/24111111RCP
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WIBiden +6.70.636.07Biden1.0-5.15/31/24101010538
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PABiden 1.21.160.04Trump0.67-0.715/31/24191919
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NVBiden +2.42.390.01Trump4.8-4.816/3/24666
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Polls last checked
6/14/241052062
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With RFK Jr.
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State2020 pollsBiden actualError2024 polls2024 if same errorLatest pollElectoral votesUsing actual pollsUsing adjusted polls
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Blue=Error favors Biden
Red=Error favors Trump ↓
Poll leaderPts. aheadBiden positionBidenTrumpBidenTrump
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GATrump +1.00.24-0.76Trump4.8-4.046/3/24161616
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AZBiden +0.90.310.59Trump4.8-5.396/4/24111111
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WIBiden +6.70.636.07Biden3-3.076/10/24101010
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PABiden 1.21.160.04Biden10.966/6/24191919538
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NVBiden +2.42.390.01Trump3.67-3.686/3/24666
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Polls last checked
6/14/2429331943
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Combos
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PA( 19)NC (16)GA (16)AZ (11)NV (6)
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119161611668
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Paths to 270 electoral votes in the 2024 Presidential Election
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Number of electoral votes for each candidate winning all the states on a certain row
31916161162
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NV (6)WI (10)AZ (11)GA (16)PA (19)State votesBidenTrump4191616657
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Biden starts with 241 electoral votes, Trump with 235, based on "safe" states.
5191611652
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Winning 5 states
6191611652
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610111619623032977161611649
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Winning 4 states:
0
50
101116195629729181611633
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6111619522932871611633
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6101619512922861616638
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61011194628728116161143
54
61011164328427891911636
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Winning 3 states:
101916641
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111619462872811119161146
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10161945286280121916641
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101119402812751319161146
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101116372782721419161651
60
61619412822760
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61119362772711511617
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61116332741616622
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610193527627017161127
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61016322731816622
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610112719161127
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Winning 2 states:
20161632
67
1619352762702119625
68
11193027122191130
69
11162723191635
70
10192927024191635
71
1016262566
72
101125261111
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61922271616
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61617281616
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61116291919
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6101630000000
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Number of paths to victory
181420
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