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Instructions - Risk Model and Projected Equity Curve
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1. Put the starting balance in A2 on the "Outcome" sheet for each account.
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2. Put the winning % for the system in the blue cell, C1 (may use historical or current estimate of the winning percentage).
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Note that the actual winning % is listed in C1003, it will likely be a little different from the anticipated winning percentage, as this is based on a 'monte carlo' sample of trades.
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3. In G1, put the percentage of the account that will be risked per trade. For this spreadsheet this is assumed constant for all trades.
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4. In I1, put the profit multiple for the take profit point. [EXAMPLE: Stop Loss is 20 pips away, Take Profit point is 40 pips away, so Profit Multiple = 2]
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5. The % Scratch cell indicates the % of trades that are losers after the stop loss is set to the break-even point. Obviously a higher number of is
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break even "losses" is desirible.
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6. You can see how changing the winning percentage, amount risked per trade, profit multiple and % scratch trades changes your equity curve at the bottom.
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7. You may also get a new sequence of random trades from http://www.random.org/nform.html and paste them into the B column from B2. [For this
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example, there were 1000 integers generated between 1 and 100 in one column.]
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Starting Bal.
Pred Win %
Act Win %
Act % Scratch
TP Multiple
Ending BalanceMax BalanceMin Balance\$100,000
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Outcome 11000.0038.039.00%0.00%2.23.50%1.38E+061.43E+06933.95545
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Outcome 21000.0078.075.60%0.00%0.91.00%1.01E+051.02E+05999.31997
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Outcome 31000.0078.078.10%0.00%0.91.00%1.63E+051.65E+05995.84862
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Outcome 41000.0055.055.90%0.00%0.955.00%3.84E-492.38E+030.0010000000
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Outcome 52000.0030.026.90%0.00%3.05.00%2.33E+032.37E+04799.2010000000
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Outcome 61000.0057.056.90%0.00%1.122.00%1.43E+106.43E+10535.86294
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Outcome 72000.0030.030.40%0.00%4.05.00%6.15E+117.29E+111734.03158
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Outcome 81000.0070.070.00%0.00%1.125.00%3.17E+393.79E+396983.6330
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Outcome 91000.0070.067.90%0.00%1.125.00%2.70E+346.85E+341066.10148
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Outcome 10
1000.0070.071.00%0.00%1.125.00%3.75E+413.75E+412310.7643
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2000308
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