ABDEFGHIJKLMNOQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAF
1
2
Units2019202020212022202320242025202620272028Sales2019202020212022202320242025202620272028
AVG Sale Price USD
3
Model S30,00045,00045,90046,81847,75448,70949,68450,67751,69152,725Model S$3,000$3,060$3,121$3,184$3,247$3,312$3,378$3,446$3,515$3,585Model S 93,000.00
4
Model X30,00045,00045,90046,81847,75448,70949,68450,67751,69152,725Model X$3,150$3,213$3,277$3,343$3,410$3,478$3,547$3,618$3,691$3,765Model X 98,000.00
5
Model Y0185,000300,000636,136684,121736,063792,297853,183919,115990,520Model Y$0$8,510$13,800$29,262$31,470$33,859$36,446$39,246$42,279$45,564Model Y46,000.00
6
Semi002,00040,00052,00067,60087,880100,000100,000100,000Semi$0$0$400$8,000$10,400$13,520$17,576$20,000$20,000$20,000Semi200,000.00
7
Roadster 2001003,0006,5006,8257,1667,5257,9018,296Roadster 2$0$0$25$750$1,625$1,706$1,792$1,881$1,975$2,074Roadster 2250,000.00
8
Autonomy108,000280,000451,950877,4551,204,7341,725,9743,135,5853,973,8185,038,8476,500,474Autonomy$864$2,240$3,616$7,020$9,638$13,808$25,085$31,791$40,311$52,004Autonomy8,000.00
9
Fleet Share000000313,558794,7641,511,6542,145,157Fleet Share$0$0$0$0$0$0$2,289$5,802$11,035$15,660Fleet Share7,300.00
10
Cybertruck0010,000147,153294,306510,916554,343601,463652,587708,057Cybertruck$0$0$500$7,358$14,715$25,546$27,717$30,073$32,629$35,403Cybertruck50,000.00
11
Model 3300,000425,000500,000542,500588,613638,645692,929751,828815,734885,071Model 3$12,900$18,275$21,500$23,328$25,310$27,462$29,796$32,329$35,077$38,058Model 3 43,000.00
12
Cybercar00000100,0001,250,0002,000,0003,000,0004,425,356Cybercar$0$0$0$0$0$2,000$25,000$40,000$60,000$88,507Cybercar20,000.00
13
RoboTaxi0001,00010,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000RoboTaxi$0$0$0$15$150$1,500$2,250$3,000$3,750$4,500RoboTaxi15,000.00
14
Storage & Energy
160,000256,000409,600655,3601,048,5761,677,7222,684,3554,294,9676,871,94810,995,116Storage & Energy$3,200$5,120$8,192$13,107$20,972$33,554$53,687$85,899$137,439$219,902
Storage & Energy
20,000.00
15
Grand Total360,000700,000903,9001,463,4251,731,0492,257,4683,633,9834,615,3535,848,7197,522,749Grand Total$23,114$40,418$54,431$95,351$120,787$158,245$224,024$288,284$376,916$508,862Grand Total
16
Rev YoY Growth74.86%34.67%75.18%26.68%31.01%41.57%28.68%30.74%35.01%35.01%
17
% Growth YoY2019202020212022202320242025202620272028Sales2019202020212022202320242025202620272028
18
Model S50%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%Auto$19,050$33,058$42,623$75,224$90,177$110,883$145,252$170,594$199,166$236,956
19
Model X50%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%Energy$3,200$5,120$8,192$13,107$20,972$33,554$53,687$85,899$137,439$219,902
20
Model 342%18%9%9%9%9%9%9%9%AI$864$2,240$3,616$7,035$9,788$15,308$29,624$40,592$55,096$72,163
21
Model Y62%112%8%8%8%8%8%8%
22
Semi1900%30%30%30%14%0%0%
% of Business Rev
2019202020212022202320242025202620272028
23
Roadster 22900%117%5%5%5%5%5%Auto82%82%78%79%75%69%64%57%51%45%
24
Pickup100%74%9%9%9%9%Energy14%13%15%14%17%21%23%29%35%42%
25
Grand Total94%29%62%18%30%61%27%27%29%AI4%6%7%7%8%10%13%14%14%14%
26
27
EBITDA Contribution
2019202020212022202320242025202620272028
28
Auto3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%
29
Energy3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%3%
30
AI80%80%80%80%80%80%80%80%80%80%
31
32
YoY Sales Growth
2019202020212022202320242025202620272028
33
Auto74%29%76%20%23%31%17%17%19%
34
Energy60%60%60%60%60%60%60%60%60%
35
AI159%61%95%39%56%94%37%36%31%
36
37
EBITDA $2019202020212022202320242025202620272028
38
Auto$571.50$991.74$1,278.70$2,256.72$2,705.32$3,326.48$4,357.57$5,117.81$5,974.98$7,108.67
39
Energy$96.00$153.60$245.76$393.22$629.15$1,006.63$1,610.61$2,576.98$4,123.17$6,597.07
40
AI$691.20$1,792.00$2,892.48$5,627.71$7,830.30$12,246.23$25,987.90$38,275.63$55,111.75$73,390.39
41
42
EBITDA % of Biz2019202020212022202320242025202620272028
43
Auto42%34%29%27%24%20%14%11%9%8%
44
Energy7%5%6%5%6%6%5%6%6%8%
45
AI51%61%65%68%70%74%81%83%85%84%
46
47
2019202020212022202320242025202620272028
48
Today's MC1111111111
49
Share Out.171.49173.20174.93176.68178.45180.24182.04183.86185.70187.55
50
EBITDA as % of Rev
5.88%7.27%8.11%8.68%9.24%10.48%14.26%15.95%17.30%17.12%
51
Earnings$1,358.70$2,937.34$4,416.94$8,277.64$11,164.76$16,579.35$31,956.08$45,970.42$65,209.91$87,096.13
52
Q Earnings$339.68$734.34$1,104.24$2,069.41$2,791.19$4,144.84$7,989.02$11,492.60$16,302.48$21,774.03
53
P/E Ratio69.8937.7470.1431.3434.8143.2532.9534.6038.0138.01
54
Price Target $ 554 $ 640 $ 1,771 $ 1,468 $ 2,178 $ 3,979 $ 5,784 $ 8,650 $ 13,346 $ 17,649
55
56
57
$1.02$1.04$1.06$1.08$1.10$1.13$1.15$1.17$1.20$1.22
58
YoY Grth SP$15.57%176.73%-17.09%48.32%82.69%45.36%49.56%54.29%32.24%
59
YoY Growth Rev74.86%34.67%75.18%26.68%31.01%41.57%28.68%30.74%35.01%35.01%
60
EPS$7.92$16.96$25.25$46.85$62.56$91.99$175.55$250.03$351.16$464.38
65
66
Year
Price Target
Sales ($M)
EarningsOp. M. %Rev GrEarn Gr
Shrs. O. ($M)
Mkt Cap ($B)
67
2019$420$23,114$1,3595.88%179$75
68
2020$640$40,418$2,9377.27%75%116%181$116
69
2021$1,771$54,431$4,4178.11%35%50%183$323
70
2022$1,468$95,351$8,2788.68%75%87%184$271
71
2023$2,178$120,787$11,1659.24%27%35%186$406
72
2024$3,979$158,245$16,57910.48%31%48%188$749
73
2025$5,784$224,024$31,95614.26%42%93%190$1,099
74
2026$8,650$288,284$45,97015.95%29%44%192$1,660
75
2027$13,346$376,916$65,21017.30%31%42%194$2,587
76
2028$17,649$508,862$87,09617.12%35%34%196$3,455
77
37.25%52.76%
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104