ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
TARRINA HEALTH — SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
2
Blue = hardcoded inputs | Yellow = Tarrina recommended base case | All other sheets reference this sheet — change a value here to update the whole model
3
4
GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS — used by all scenarios
5
ParameterValueNotes
6
Total India DALYs (000s), 2019469,246.881WHO Global Health Observatory 2019
7
Rural population share of DALYs0.600~60–65% of India is rural (Census 2011)
8
Gujarat as % of India DALYs0.056Census data
9
10
SCENARIO PARAMETERS (6 scenarios — change the blue/yellow cells to update the full model)
11
ParameterAIM
Pessimistic		AIM
Optimistic		Tarrina
Original		Tarrina
Conservative		Tarrina
Base Case		Tarrina
Optimistic		Notes
12
Market share (revenue %)0.8%2.0%25.0%2.0%5.0%8.0%AIM: flat cap at Entero ~1.3%. Tarrina counter: staged ramp reflects high-touch procurement-capture model. Base = Yr 5 conservative; Optimistic = Yr 8+ scale.
13
Underserved area DALY multiplier2.03.01.02.02.53.0Tarrina-served areas: ~17% essential medicine availability vs ~51% in better-served rural areas (PMC 2024). Marginal impact per product ~3× higher in near-zero-access areas.
14
Counterfactual (% that happens anyway)55.0%40.0%0.0%50.0%30.0%20.0%Govt programs fail on physical distribution: Jan Aushadhi 52% availability, PHC stock-outs 4–14 weeks. Distribution gap has persisted 20+ years. Tarrina counter: 30% base (vs 40–55% AIM).
15
Uncertainty discount (applied to Tarrina Original only)
0.0%0.0%80.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%
16
17
MARKET SHARE STAGED RAMP — Counter to AIM's Flat 2% Cap
18
ScenarioYear 3Year 4Year 5Year 6Year 7Year 8+Notes
19
Conservative0.5%0.7%1.0%1.3%1.6%1.9%
20
Base Case0.8%1.0%1.7%2.0%2.5%3.0%
21
Optimistic1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%
22
Rationale: Entero Healthcare = 1.3% after $60M+, 104 warehouses, 45+ acquisitions (Finance Pulse Jan 2026). Tarrina = procurement-capture model (deeper wallet share per retailer) vs. Entero's logistics pass-through. Comparable: mPharma (Ghana/Nigeria) reached ~5% via retailer-embedded model. At-scale DALY calculations use Year 8+ figures.
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100