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On Behalf of Make Votes Matter
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Methodology
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Fieldwork Date(s): 19-20 September 2022
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Sampling Method: Online
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Population Sampled: Eligible Voters in the Red Wall
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Sample Size: 1,500
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Weighting: Data weighted to the profile of adults (18+) in the Red Wall. Data weighted by age, gender, region, education, and 2019 General Election vote. Targets for each weighting were derived from the Office of National Statistics' latest population estimates and the results of the 2019 General Election.
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Margin of Error: All results are subject to a margin of error. By consequence, not all differences are statistically significant, especially among subsamples. In this 1,500 sample poll, if 50.0% of respondents gave a particular answer to a question––the worst-case scenario from the perspective of margin of error––it is 95.0% certain that the true value falls within a 2.53% range from the sample result. Subsample results from crosstabs are subject to a higher margin of error due to their lower sample sizes. Conclusions drawn from small subsamples should be treated with caution. We particularly emphasise caution when reporting on any subsample figures where the base is below 100 respondents.
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Additional information: Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC) and the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and abides by both organisations’ rules.
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'Red Wall' Seats are defined as the 40 parliamentary constituencies the Conservative Party won in the 2019 General Election (or the 2021 Hartlepool By-Election) that had traditionally been held by the Labour Party. The seats were all won by the Labour Party in the 2017, 2015, and 2010 General Elections, with the exception of two constituencies, Redcar and Burnley, where the Liberal Democratic Party won in 2010, and one constituency, Vale of Clwyd, where the Conservative Party won in 2015 (but the Labour Party had historically long held the three seats otherwise). All constituencies are in the regions of the East Midlands, West Midlands, North East, North West, Wales, and Yorkshire & the Humber.
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List of Constituencies
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Ashfield
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Barrow and Furness
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Bassetlaw
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Birmingham Northfield
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Bishop Auckland
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Blackpool South
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Blyth Valley
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Bolsover
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Bolton North East
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Bridgend
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Burnley
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Bury South
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Clwyd South
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Darlington
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Delyn
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Don Valley
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Dudley North
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Gedling
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Great Grimsby
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Heywood and Middleton
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Hartlepool
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Hyndburn
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Leigh
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Newcastle-Under-Lyme
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North West Durham
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Penistone and Stocksbridge
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Redcar
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Rother Valley
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Scunthorpe
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Sedgefield
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Stoke-On-Trent Central
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Stoke-On-Trent North
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Vale Of Clwyd
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Wakefield
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West Bromwich East
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West Bromwich West
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Wolverhampton North East
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Workington
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Wrexham
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Ynys Môn
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