NEX Valuation Model
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Valuation Model
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[MARKET VALUE PER TOKEN] 2018 =
DISCOUNT [ACCUMULATED FEES GENERATED PER TOKEN] from [END YEAR]
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[Fees generated by each token]=
[Total fees generated by DEX] / [TOKENS STAKED]
Raiden Network participants
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where [Total fees generated] =
[NEX DEX Volume]* NEX fee
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- inputs highlighted in blue are assumptions
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[TOKENS STAKED]Token Economics
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PlatformNEO
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TypeNEP-5
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Total tokens to ever exist100,000,000
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Tokens held NEO council, partnerships, company fund.30,000,00030.00%
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Tokens locked in a smart contract20,000,00020.00%
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Tokens currently in circulation50,000,00050.00%
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Tokens released from escrow to circulation (per month for 2 years)833,333
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NEX released to partners, etc (per year)6,000,000
im assuming an even distribution for 5 years
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ASSUMPTIONS:
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Percent of NEX tokens staked85%
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Decrease in percent of NEX that is staked1%
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Token Distribution20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
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NEX released at launch50,000,000
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NEX released into circulation from a locked contract that year10,000,00010,000,000
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NEX released to partners, etc6,000,0006,000,0006,000,0006,000,0006,000,000
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NEX in circulation after release from foundation50,000,00066,000,00082,000,00088,000,00094,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000
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NEX applicable to being staked100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000100,000,000
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% of NEX that are staked85%84.00%83.00%82.00%81.00%80.00%79.00%78.00%77.00%76.00%75.00%
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[TOKENS STAKED]85,000,00084,000,00083,000,00082,000,00081,000,00080,000,00079,000,00078,000,00077,000,00076,000,00075,000,000
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[OFF-CHAIN VOLUME]Addressable Market
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Daily Volume on top 10 exchanges (as of Jan 2018)$11,500,000,000
https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/all/
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Projected Annual exchange volume on top 10 exchanges$4,197,500,000,000
My assumptions for the total annual crypto currency exchange volume are very raw, as more data becomes available feel free to play around with this assumption
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NEX transaction fee0.25%
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Decrease in transaction fees0.02%
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ASSUMPTIONS:
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CAGR for Annual exchange volume15%
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% of exchange volume applicable to NEX25%
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Base year for the adoption curve2018Adoption curve201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
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Saturation %100Output1.88%2.50%3.33%4.41%5.82%7.65%10.00%12.96%16.64%21.11%26.40%32.47%
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Start of fast growth2023% Penetration0.00%0.62%1.45%2.53%3.94%5.78%8.12%11.08%14.76%19.23%24.52%30.59%
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Take over time15Saturation100100100100100100100100100100100100
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Network activity20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
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Annual exchange volume on top 10 exchanges4,827,125,000,0005,551,193,750,0006,383,872,812,5007,341,453,734,3758,442,671,794,5319,709,072,563,71111,165,433,448,26812,840,248,465,50814,766,285,735,33416,981,228,595,63419,528,412,884,979
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Annual global exchange volume applicable to NEX1,206,781,250,0001,387,798,437,5001,595,968,203,1251,835,363,433,5942,110,667,948,6332,427,268,140,9282,791,358,362,0673,210,062,116,3773,691,571,433,8334,245,307,148,9084,882,103,221,245
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% of transactions facilitated by NEX0.62%1.45%2.53%3.94%5.78%8.12%11.08%14.76%19.23%24.52%30.59%
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[OFF-CHAIN VOLUME] aka GDP facilitated by NEX3,764,347,50820,091,893,31640,385,814,73572,392,315,551121,892,089,625197,097,969,637309,362,069,052473,837,404,553709,878,281,2441,040,881,341,1931,493,279,406,485
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NEX transaction fee0.25%0.23%0.21%0.19%0.17%0.15%0.13%0.11%0.09%0.07%0.05%
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Fees generated by NEX DEX$9,410,868.77$46,211,354.63$84,810,210.94$137,545,399.55$207,216,552.36$295,646,954.46$402,170,689.77$521,221,145.01$638,890,453.12$728,616,938.84$746,639,703.24
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Fees generated by each staked token each year$0.11$0.55$1.02$1.68$2.56$3.70$5.09$6.68$8.30$9.59$9.96
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Accumulated fees generated by each staked token$0.11$0.66$1.68$3.36$5.92$9.61$14.70$21.39$29.68$39.27$49.23
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Daily average volume$10,313,280.84$55,046,283.06$110,646,067.77$198,335,111.10$333,950,930.48$539,994,437.36$847,567,312.47$1,298,184,670.01$1,944,872,003.41$2,851,729,701.90$4,091,176,456.12
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...and now we can discount future accumulated fee from 2018
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[END YEAR]2028
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Years between 2018 and [END YEAR]10
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Discount rate25%
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[MARKET VALUE PER TOKEN] 2018$5.29
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