OmiseGo Valuation Model
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The equation of exchange: M(size of the asset base) x V(Velocity) = P(price of the digital resource being provided) x Q (quantity of the digital resource being provided)
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OMG Supply Schedule InputsSupply Schedule Output
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MetricAssumptionYear From Launch2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
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Total Planned Supply 140,245,398 OMG Released from Public Sale that year 98,312,024
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Percent of Tokens Issued in ICO70.1%OMG Released from Foundation that year 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982 560,982
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Percent of Tokens Issued to Foundation20.0%OMG Released from Founders that year 2,776,859 2,776,859 2,776,859 2,776,859 2,776,859
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Lifetime of Foundation50 Aggregate Number of Tokens Released 101,649,864 104,987,705 108,325,545 111,663,386 115,001,226 115,562,208 116,123,190 116,684,171 117,245,153 117,806,134 118,367,116 118,928,098 119,489,079
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Percent Issued to Founders9.9%Number of Tokens in Float after Bonders 81,319,892 83,990,164 86,660,436 89,330,709 92,000,981 92,449,766 92,898,552 93,347,337 93,796,122 94,244,907 94,693,693 95,142,478 95,591,263
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Lock-up for Founders5Percent of Tokens Released that are Hodl'd60%59%58%57%56%55%54%53%52%51%50%49%48%
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Percent of Tokens in Float Bonded by Nodes20%
Number of Tokens in Float after Bonders & Hodlers
20,329,973 22,047,418 23,831,620 25,682,579 27,600,294 28,890,552 30,192,029 31,504,726 32,828,643 34,163,779 35,510,135 36,867,710 38,236,505
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Percent of Tokens in Float Initially hodl'd60%
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Decrease in percent of OMG that is hodl'd each year1%
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Blue represents a particularly subjective assumption
OMG Economy and Utility Value Output
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Year From Launch2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
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OMG Economy InputsTransaction fee charged by the network1.00%0.91%0.83%0.75%0.68%0.62%0.56%0.51%0.47%0.42%0.39%0.35%0.32%
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MetricAssumptionAnnual global remittance flows ($) $ 450,884,200,000 $ 455,393,042,000 $ 459,946,972,420 $ 464,546,442,144 $ 469,191,906,566 $ 473,883,825,631 $ 478,622,663,888 $ 483,408,890,526 $ 488,242,979,432 $ 493,125,409,226 $ 498,056,663,318 $ 503,037,229,952 $ 508,067,602,251
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Cost per transaction1.00%
Annual remmitance transactions available to OMG
$ 270,530,520,000 $ 273,235,825,200 $ 275,968,183,452 $ 278,727,865,287 $ 281,515,143,939 $ 284,330,295,379 $ 287,173,598,333 $ 290,045,334,316 $ 292,945,787,659 $ 295,875,245,536 $ 298,833,997,991 $ 301,822,337,971 $ 304,840,561,351
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Cost decline for transactions10.00%Annual SEA e-commerce flows ($) $ 13,068,000,000 $ 17,249,760,000 $ 22,769,683,200 $ 30,055,981,824 $ 39,673,896,008 $ 52,369,542,730 $ 69,127,796,404 $ 91,248,691,253 $ 120,448,272,454 $ 158,991,719,639 $ 209,869,069,924 $ 277,027,172,299 $ 365,675,867,435
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SEA e-commerce (2016) $ 7,500,000,000 Annual SEA e-commerce flows available to OMG $ 9,801,000,000 $ 12,937,320,000 $ 17,077,262,400 $ 22,541,986,368 $ 29,755,422,006 $ 39,277,157,048 $ 51,845,847,303 $ 68,436,518,440 $ 90,336,204,340 $ 119,243,789,729 $ 157,401,802,443 $ 207,770,379,225 $ 274,256,900,576
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CAGR for SEA e-commerce (2016-2021)32%Annual global e-commerce flows ($) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
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% of ecommerce addressable for OMG75%
Annual global e-commerce flows available to OMG
$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
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OMG existing business $ 210,000,000 Total annual transactions available to OMG $ 280,331,520,000 $ 286,173,145,200 $ 293,045,445,852 $ 301,269,851,655 $ 311,270,565,945 $ 323,607,452,426 $ 339,019,445,635 $ 358,481,852,756 $ 383,281,992,000 $ 415,119,035,265 $ 456,235,800,434 $ 509,592,717,195 $ 579,097,461,927
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Global e-commerce (2016)
% Share of remittance Market Facilitated by Token
0.09%0.22%0.38%0.59%0.87%1.22%1.66%2.21%2.88%3.68%4.59%5.60%6.67%
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CAGR for global e-commerce (2016-2021)1%
% Share of ecommerce Market Facilitated by Token
0.30%0.76%1.42%2.36%3.64%5.29%7.26%9.42%11.59%13.55%15.20%16.48%17.42%
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% of global e-commerce addressable for OMG10%Transactions Facilitated by OMG Each Year ($) $ 283,017,089 $ 691,542,210 $ 1,290,433,814 $ 2,181,955,235 $ 3,523,068,119 $ 5,541,247,337 $ 8,538,066,648 $ 12,870,502,375 $ 18,915,413,136 $ 27,044,346,046 $ 37,636,640,067 $ 51,133,340,631 $ 68,114,475,044
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Remittance flows (2016) $ 442,000,000,000 OMG existing business $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000 $ 210,000,000
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CAGR for remittance flows (2016-2021)1%GDP Facilitated by OMG Each Year $ 493,017,089 $ 907,828,957 $ 1,511,098,556 $ 2,408,348,588 $ 3,757,131,148 $ 5,785,654,123 $ 8,796,261,808 $ 13,146,548,403 $ 19,213,654,934 $ 27,369,040,473 $ 37,991,745,607 $ 51,522,559,870 $ 68,541,508,753
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% of remittance addressable for OMG60%Monetary Base Necessary for OMG's GDP $ 32,867,806 $ 60,521,930 $ 100,739,904 $ 160,556,573 $ 250,475,410 $ 385,710,275 $ 586,417,454 $ 876,436,560 $ 1,280,910,329 $ 1,824,602,698 $ 2,532,783,040 $ 3,434,837,325 $ 4,569,433,917
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Velocity15Current Utility Value of Each Token in the Float $ 1.62 $ 2.75 $ 4.23 $ 6.25 $ 9.08 $ 13.35 $ 19.42 $ 27.82 $ 39.02 $ 53.41 $ 71.33 $ 93.17 $ 119.50
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Transaction fees generated by the network $ 4,930,171 $ 8,195,838 $ 12,400,279 $ 17,971,114 $ 25,497,358 $ 35,710,721 $ 49,380,556 $ 67,123,660 $ 89,221,464 $ 115,585,032 $ 145,915,181 $ 179,955,277 $ 217,702,834
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E-commerce Market Adoption Curve Inputs
Current Utility Value of Each Token in the Float after fees generated per token*
$ 1.65 $ 2.80 $ 4.32 $ 6.38 $ 9.26 $ 13.61 $ 19.78 $ 28.30 $ 39.65 $ 54.23 $ 72.37 $ 94.45 $ 121.06
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MetricAssumption
*Keep in mind that these are CURRENT UTILITY VALUES OF TOKENS IN FLOAT. To get market value in 2018 we need to take all future utility flows of the token and discount it back. I used discount rate of 30% and came up with a value of $11.40 for 2018.*
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Base Year2018Remittance Maket Adoption Curve Output
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Saturation Percentage20Year201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040
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Start of Fast Growth 2020Output0.28%0.38%0.50%0.66%0.87%1.15%1.50%1.94%2.50%3.17%3.96%4.87%5.88%6.95%8.05%9.12%10.13%11.04%11.83%12.50%13.06%13.50%13.85%14.13%
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Take Over Time10Percent Penetration each Year (after adjustment)0.00%0.09%0.22%0.38%0.59%0.87%1.22%1.66%2.21%2.88%3.68%4.59%5.60%6.67%7.77%8.84%9.85%10.76%11.55%12.22%12.77%13.22%13.57%13.84%
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Remittance Market Adoption Curve InputsSaturation151515151515151515151515151515151515151515151515
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MetricAssumption
^Adjustment year, ignore^
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Base Year2018
SEA E-commerce Maket Adoption Curve Output
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Saturation Percentage15Year201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040
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Start of Fast Growth 2023Output0.58%0.88%1.34%2.00%2.94%4.22%5.87%7.84%10.00%12.16%14.13%15.78%17.06%18.00%18.66%19.12%19.42%19.62%19.76%19.84%19.90%19.93%19.96%19.97%
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Take Over Time15Percent Penetration each Year (after adjustment)0.00%0.30%0.76%1.42%2.36%3.64%5.29%7.26%9.42%11.59%13.55%15.20%16.48%17.42%18.09%18.54%18.85%19.05%19.18%19.26%19.32%19.36%19.38%19.40%
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Saturation202020202020202020202020202020202020202020202020
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Deriving Current Market Value from Future Utility
^Adjustment year, ignore^
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MetricValue
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End Year2028
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Years Between 2018 and End Year10
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Discount Rate30%
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Market Value in 2018 based on Expectations for Future Utility $ 5.25
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MetricValue
Percentage of Value
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Current Utility Value in 2018 $ 1.62 31%
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Discounted Expected Utility Value $ 3.63 69%
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OMG Existing business
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NameAssumption
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McDonalds Thai $ 150,000,000
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Paysbuy Acquistion $ 60,000,000
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[Add your own source1]
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[Add your own source2]
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