FL Calculation: Obama & Romney Campaigns turnout effects
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VariableValueNotes
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Florida Registered Voters12038571http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/history.asp
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Obama targeted GOTV effect0.018From analyis -- rounds to 1.8
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Percent of electorate in Obama GOTV target29%Turnout score < 85; Obama support > 60
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Mean Obama score of modeled Obama voters84%Mean Obama support of those with O support > 60
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Additional Obama votes by turnout out one modeled Obama voter0.68See formula in cell
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Targeted Obama GOTV turned out this many more Obama votes41,893Crucially: Obama *votes*, not add'l modeled *voters*
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Romney targeted GOTV effect0.006From analyis -- rounds to 0.6
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Percent of electorate in Romney GOTV target14%Turnout score < 85; Obama support < 40
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Mean Romney score of modeled Romney voters83%Mean Romney support of those with O support < 60
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Additional Romney votes by turnout out one modeled Romney voter0.66See formula in cell
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Targeted Romney GOTV turned out this many more Romney votes6,515Crucially: Romney *votes*, not add'l modeled *voters*
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The net effect of both campaigns, in terms of add'l Obama votes35,378
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