A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | |
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1 | |||||||||||

2 | JFKCalc: The Witness Spreadsheet Database and Probability Model | ||||||||||

3 | Richard Charnin | ||||||||||

4 | |||||||||||

5 | https://docs.google.com/document/d/15vokd2I6Zd32OWUvkQ29furIWkOPWZ9Pwms3Wy4Sc6E/pub | ||||||||||

6 | |||||||||||

7 | Lee Harvey Oswald was shot by Jack Ruby in front of millions of television viewers on Nov. 24, 1963. He was conveniently disposed of before he could get a lawyer. He claimed that he was “just a patsy”. The transcript of Oswald’s interrogation was destroyed. This analysis indicates that he was indeed a patsy. | ||||||||||

8 | |||||||||||

9 | This masterpiece from Vincent Salandria is a MUST READ. | ||||||||||

10 | http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/Unspeakable/COPA1998VJS.html | ||||||||||

11 | |||||||||||

12 | http://www.salon.com/2015/11/22/inside_the_plot_to_kill_jfk_the_secret_story_of_the_cia_and_what_really_happened_in_dallas/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=socialflow | ||||||||||

13 | |||||||||||

14 | Penn Jones was the first to investigate JFK witness deaths: "Forgive My Grief (1-4)". | ||||||||||

15 | Mae Brussell: 1977 radio show. The HSCA should investigate the pattern of murders... | ||||||||||

16 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=76&v=rD0eow8YW18&hc_location=ufi | ||||||||||

17 | http://www.maebrussell.com/Disappearing%20Witnesses/Disappearing%20Witnesses.html | ||||||||||

18 | |||||||||||

19 | Richard E. Sprague provides a list in "The Taking of America": | ||||||||||

20 | http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/ToA/ToAchp10.html | ||||||||||

21 | |||||||||||

22 | Jim Marrs cites my debunking of Bugliosi and HSCA in "Crossfire". | ||||||||||

23 | Richard Belzer and David Wayne wrote "HIt List". My probability calculations are cited in the book; the 50 suspicious witness deaths are in JFK Calc. | ||||||||||

24 | |||||||||||

25 | John Simkin's JFK index: 70 of the 656 individuals listed are included in JFK Calc. | ||||||||||

26 | http://spartacus-educational.com/JFKindex.htm | ||||||||||

27 | |||||||||||

28 | Michael Benson's "Who's Who in the JFK assassination" lists 1400+ JFK-related individuals. | ||||||||||

29 | The book contains references to 107 of 147 witnesses listed in JFK Calc" . | ||||||||||

30 | It contains information on more than 1,400 individuals related in any way to the murders of President John F. Kennedy, Dallas Police Officer J. D. Tippit and alleged assassin Lee Harvey Oswald. Based on years of research using a wealth of data sources and a detailed analysis of the Warren Commission’s twenty-six volumes, this encyclopedic study includes entries on virtually all of the suspects, victims, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators involved in the assassination. | ||||||||||

31 | |||||||||||

32 | Of the 1100 (est.) witnesses sought to testify in 4 investigations, nearly 72 are included in JFK Calc | ||||||||||

33 | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=25 | ||||||||||

34 | Warren Commission: 552 total witnesses (CIA claimed 418 testified), 30 suspicious deaths in JFK Calc | ||||||||||

35 | Approximately 600 other witnesses were called in the Garrison-Shaw trial, Church Senate hearings, HSCA investigation. | ||||||||||

36 | |||||||||||

37 | The Badgeman Photo | ||||||||||

38 | https://jfkplayersandwitnesses.wordpress.com/2013/08/05/the-mary-moorman-photo/ | ||||||||||

39 | |||||||||||

40 | WHO IS A WITNESS? Someone who has firsthand knowledge about an event. An expert witness is a person who, by virtue of education, training or experience, is believed to have expertise in a particular area. An eyewitness is a person that saw a specific event first hand. | ||||||||||

41 | Witness categories include FBI, CIA, anti-Castro, mafia, Ruby associates, Oswald associates, reporters | ||||||||||

42 | In 1977, seven top FBI officials died in a six month period, just before their scheduled testimony at HSCA.. | ||||||||||

43 | |||||||||||

44 | |||||||||||

45 | COINCIDENCE OR CONNECTION? | ||||||||||

46 | Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, is the truth - Arthur Conan Doyle | ||||||||||

47 | |||||||||||

48 | Suppose that on Nov. 22, 1963, 1400 individuals were selected at random from the entire U.S. population. Further suppose that within one year, at least 22 would die unnaturally under mysterious circumstances. Based on the (conservative) 0.000825 unweighted national unnatural death mortality rate, only 1 in a random group of 1400 would be expected to die unnaturally. In fact, the 0.000163 WEIGHTED JFK-related unnatural rate is the appropriate one to use, but let's be conservative and assume the 0.000825 rate. | ||||||||||

49 | |||||||||||

50 | There are three possibilities. The 22 unnatural deaths were… | ||||||||||

51 | 1) unrelated. It was just a 1 in trillion coincidence. | ||||||||||

52 | 2) unrelated. It was a scam to fool the public into believing that the assassination was a conspiracy. | ||||||||||

53 | 3) related. There was a common factor -a connection- between them. | ||||||||||

54 | |||||||||||

55 | We can confidently rule out 1) and 2). | ||||||||||

56 | Then if the 22 unnatural deaths were related, what was the connection? | ||||||||||

57 | |||||||||||

58 | Assuming the JFK-witness unnatural mortality rate: | ||||||||||

59 | In the three year period following the assassination, AT LEAST 40 of 1400 material witnesses died unnaturally. The probability is ZERO (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). | ||||||||||

60 | In the 15 year period following the assassination, at least 80 died unnaturally. The probability is ZERO. | ||||||||||

61 | In four investigations from 1964-78, approximately 1100 witnesses were sought to be interviewed. At least 67 died suspiciously. The probability is ZERO. | ||||||||||

62 | |||||||||||

63 | THE LONDON TIMES ACTUARY AND THE HOUSE SELECT COMMITTEE ON ASSASSINATIONS | ||||||||||

64 | An actuary engaged by the London Times calculated the probability that at least EIGHTEEN witnesses would die within 3 years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 trillion. To derive the probability of unnatural deaths, the actuary must have assumed approximately 550 witnesses. | ||||||||||

65 | |||||||||||

66 | At the end of the 1973 film Executive Action it was noted that "In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes. An actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the odds of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION". | ||||||||||

67 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=IB5JGfxIxFk#t=384s | ||||||||||

68 | |||||||||||

69 | In response to a letter from the HSCA, the Sunday Times Legal Manager wrote: | ||||||||||

70 | “Our piece about the odds against the deaths of the Kennedy witnesses was, I regret to say, based on a careless journalistic mistake and should not have been published. This was realized by The Sunday Times editorial staff after the first edition – the one which goes to the United States – had gone out, and later editions were amended. There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong: it was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked ” what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time” to which he replied -correctly – that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission Index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Our mistake was to treat the reply to the former question as if it dealt with the latter – hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize”. None of the editorial staff involved in the story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened, you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material". | ||||||||||

71 | |||||||||||

72 | That settled the matter for the HSCA which did not bother to ask U.S. mathematicians to analyze the probabilities. One must ask: Why not? | ||||||||||

73 | |||||||||||

74 | Whitaker was only partially correct: True, the probability that a) 15 named individuals from the U.S. population of 300 million dying in a given time period is much lower than the probability b) that 15 of 1400 witnesses listed in the Warren Commission report would die in the same period. | ||||||||||

75 | Whitaker made two fundamental errors. Or were they obfuscations? | ||||||||||

76 | |||||||||||

77 | The first was clearly an obfuscation based on his incomplete (i.e. false) statement of the problem. He assumed deaths of all types. The probability calculation is based on the expected number of unnatural (not total) deaths. | ||||||||||

78 | |||||||||||

79 | The second was omission of the relevant data: He did not include mortality statistics and therefore could not provide the probability calculation. Why not? Was it because it would prove that the actuary’s probability calculation was essentially correct? | ||||||||||

80 | |||||||||||

81 | If the London Times was interested in the truth, Whitaker would have confirmed these results: | ||||||||||

82 | 1) The joint probability that 15 named individuals in the U.S. population would die unnaturally in any given year is p=0.000825^15 or 5.6E-47. ABSOLUTE ZERO. | ||||||||||

83 | 2) The probability that at least 15 out of 2479 persons in the Warren Commission index would die unnaturally in the year following the assassination is 1 in 200 million. That’s higher than 1), but still ZERO for all practical purposes. | ||||||||||

84 | |||||||||||

85 | The letter from the London Sunday Times Legal Manager to HSCA is often quoted to refute the actuary's calculation. | ||||||||||

86 | The Legal Manager does not mention the actuary's name, his methodology, or the fact that 13 of the 18 deaths were unnatural. | ||||||||||

87 | The letter closes with the astounding statement that no one at the Times knew the actuary's name! | ||||||||||

88 | |||||||||||

89 | Author Vince Bugliosi noted 2479 names in the Warren Commission index. According to an actuary he consulted, the probabilty of the deaths was 1 in 2. | ||||||||||

90 | a) But names in the index included George Washington, Abe Lincoln and FDR, etc. | ||||||||||

91 | b) Bugliosi's actuary did not use UNNATURAL mortality rates for the actual cause of death in his calculation. | ||||||||||

92 | |||||||||||

93 | The London Times actuary's odds were dismissed by the HSCA. | ||||||||||

94 | But the actuary must have worked for one of London's largest insurance companies. He knew what he was doing. | ||||||||||

95 | His calculaton was confirmed by the Poisson distribution function applied to 13 unnatural and 18 total deaths among 459-560 witnesses in three years. | ||||||||||

96 | |||||||||||

97 | MORTALITY STATISTICS | ||||||||||

98 | http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html | ||||||||||

99 | The average probability of death by unnatural causes in any given year: 0.000818. | ||||||||||

100 | The probability P of at least m unnatural deaths in a group of n persons during a time period t is P(m)= f(n,t,p), where p is the probability of an unnatural death in a given year. As t increases, the probability that at least m would die of unnatural causes also increases. |

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