Life satisfaction impact of treating mental health vs alleviating poverty
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ItemNumberSourceNote
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GIVE DIRECTLY
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Increase in life satisfaction for recipients of GiveDirectly (standard deviations)0.16
Haushofer and Shapiro (2016, p 1976)
Measured after 4.3 months
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Standard devation of life satisfaction scores1.9
Layard et al. (2018, p16)
UK data
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Life satisfaction increase per household member0.304Calculation
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Members of household5Guess
2 parents, 3 children
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Total life satisfaction effect on household (LS point-years)1.52Calculation
Makes charitable assumption all members of household had measured effect size; I presume children would have a smaller LS increase than their parents (one of whom would be the recipient)
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Aggregate increase in life satisfaction per transfer0
Haushofer, Reisinger and Shapiro (2015)
Paper finds negative spillovers of cash transfers which are larger, in terms of life satisfaction, than positive affects. To simplify, I have represented this as zero rather than a negative number.
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Average cash transfer size750
Haushofer and Shapiro (2016)
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Cost-effectiveness of GiveDirectly in LS point-years/$1,0000Calculation
Assumes negative spillovers cancel out positive affects.
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Cost-effectiveness of GiveDirectly in LS point-years/$1,000 (assuming no negative spillovers)2.0CalculationTo 1 d.p.
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STRONG MINDS
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Average life satisfaction impact of mental health treatment (LS point-years)2
Frijters, Krekel and Bellet (unpublished)
Authors calculate effect is 0.4 for 5 years. This research is not yet published so alternative calculations follow below. (I use the 0.4 number as the upper bound for the annual LS effect in this guesstimate model: https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/11120 )
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Reduction in life satisfaction from suffering from depression/anxiety0.7
Layard et al. (2018)
LS impact of being diagnosed with mental illness vs not from multiple regression
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Average PHQ-9 of those diagnosed with depression15.5BMJ (2009)UK data.
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Average PHQ-9 score of non-clinical population (i.e. those without depression)5
Gyani et al. (2013
Cut-off is 10. Assume average is 5.
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Difference in PHQ-9 scores between average person diagnosed with depression and non-clinical population10.5Calculation
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Average reduction in PHQ-9 score of treatment (UK)4.47
Gyani et al. (2013
From UK's Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme which provided CBT. Figure from treatment of moderate depression; this is conservative as those with more severe depression had larger average improvements.
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StongMind own estimate of PHQ-9 reductions4.5
StrongMinds Impact Evaluation 'Phase 2' (2015)
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Annual increase in life satisfaction from treatment of depression/anxiety (UK)0.298Calculation
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First year increase in life satisfaction caused by StrongMinds0.2Adjustment
Note StrongMinds's self-rated PHQ-9 reduction nearly identical to that seen in UK mental health treatment (line 19). I discount effectiveness by 1/3 for conservatism.
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Duration of effect of mental health treatment (years)4
Wiles et al. (2016)
Reduction in clinical scores for UK CBT appears almost constant when measured 4 years later. Study only looked at 4 year duration, so reasonable to assume effect lasted longer. I assume 4 years for conservatism. Alternative would be to assume effect fades. Reay et al (21
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Total LS effect of StrongMinds per participant0.8Calculation
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Alternative calculation of total LS effect (assuming 75% annual retention of benefit)0.75Calculation
I've also estimate the total benefit if not all the benefit are retained as they are in Wiles (2016). Calculation start in line 32. As you can see, the total benefit is nearly identical if you assume a non-declining effect over 4 years or a 75% retention rate over 10 years.
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Per participant cost of StrongMinds ($)102
StrongMinds Q1.2018 report
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Cost effectiveness of StrongMinds in LS point-year/$1,000)7.8CalculationTo 1 d. p.
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Written edit: 13 August 2018. Minor correction (typos): 6 September
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ALTERNATIVE RETENTION CALCULATION
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Retention rate of benefits75%Reay et al. (2012)StrongMinds 'Follow Up Evaluations for Phase 1 & Phase 2' (2017)
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Year 1 benefit (LS points)0.2From line 22
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Year 2 benefits (LS points)0.15calculation
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Year 3 benefit (LS points)0.1125calculation
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Year 4 benefits (LS points)0.084375calculation
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Year 5 benefit (LS points)0.06328125calculation
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Year 6 benefits (LS points)0.0474609375calculation
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Year 7 benefit (LS points)0.03559570313calculation
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Year 8 benefits (LS points)0.02669677734calculation
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Year 9 benefits (LS points)0.02002258301calculation
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Year 10 benefits (LS points)0.01501693726calculation
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Total after 10 years (LS points)0.7549491882calculation
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