Yelich HR Odds

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I
1	GameDate	BravesGames	Homers	PA	PA per Team Game	Remaining PA	Probability of Hitting 62 HR	Probability of Hitting 74 HR	Intrinsic Prob

2	3/28/2019	1	1	4	4.00	644	3.55E-10	2.38E-14	0.039
3	3/29/2019	2	2	8	4.00	640	7.29E-10	2.43E-14
4	3/30/2019	3	3	13	4.33	689	2.68E-08	2.95E-13
5	3/31/2019	4	4	18	4.50	711	1.79E-07	3.36E-12
6	4/1/2019	5	4	23	4.60	722	2.97E-07	6.75E-12
7	4/2/2019	6	4	28	4.67	728	3.88E-07	9.82E-12
8	4/3/2019	7	4	32	4.57	709	1.63E-07	2.95E-12
9	4/5/2019	8	4	37	4.63	712	1.88E-07	3.58E-12
10	4/6/2019	9	4	42	4.67	714	2.06E-07	4.07E-12
11	4/7/2019	10	5	47	4.70	714	4.55E-07	1.09E-11
12	4/8/2019	11	5	51	4.64	700	2.41E-07	4.50E-12
13	4/9/2019	12	5	56	4.67	700	2.41E-07	4.50E-12
14	4/10/2019	13	5	60	4.62	688	1.37E-07	2.06E-12
15	4/12/2019	14	5	65	4.64	687	1.30E-07	1.92E-12
16	4/13/2019	15	5	70	4.67	686	1.24E-07	1.80E-12
17	4/14/2019	16	5	73	4.56	666	4.62E-08	4.73E-13
18	4/15/2019	17	8	78	4.59	665	5.31E-07	9.49E-12
19	4/16/2019	18	9	83	4.61	664	1.12E-06	2.43E-11
20	4/17/2019	19	9	87	4.58	655	7.46E-07	1.36E-11
21	4/18/2019	20	10	91	4.55	646	1.10E-06	2.07E-11
22	4/19/2019	21	11	95	4.52	638	1.69E-06	3.38E-11
23	4/20/2019	22	13	99	4.50	630	5.57E-06	1.50E-10
24	4/21/2019	23	13	103	4.48	622	3.95E-06	8.99E-11
25	4/22/2019	24	13	107	4.46	615	2.90E-06	5.70E-11
26	4/23/2019	25	13	111	4.44	608	2.11E-06	3.59E-11
27	4/24/2019	26	13	112	4.31	586	7.49E-07	7.90E-12
28	4/26/2019	27	13	117	4.33	585	7.13E-07	7.36E-12
29	4/27/2019	28	14	122	4.36	584	1.55E-06	1.98E-11
30	4/28/2019	29	14	124	4.28	569	7.51E-07	6.84E-12
31	4/29/2019	30	14	124	4.13	546	2.30E-07	1.23E-12
32	4/30/2019	31	14	124	4.00	524	6.77E-08	2.27E-13
33	5/1/2019	32	14	124	3.88	504	2.06E-08	5.53E-14
34	5/2/2019	33	14	124	3.76	485	6.17E-09	2.35E-14
35	5/3/2019	34	14	124	3.65	467	1.83E-09	1.75E-14
36	5/4/2019	35	14	125	3.57	454	7.22E-10	1.60E-14
37	5/5/2019	36	15	129	3.58	452	1.84E-09	1.70E-14
38	5/6/2019	37	15	134	3.62	453	1.98E-09	1.69E-14
39	5/7/2019	38	15	138	3.63	450	1.60E-09	1.68E-14
40	5/8/2019	39	16	143	3.67	451	4.96E-09	1.94E-14
41	5/10/2019	40	16	148	3.70	451	4.96E-09	1.94E-14
42	5/11/2019	41	16	154	3.76	454	6.10E-09	2.02E-14
43	5/12/2019	42	16	158	3.76	451	4.96E-09	1.94E-14
44	5/13/2019	43	16	163	3.79	451	4.96E-09	1.94E-14
45	5/14/2019	44	16	168	3.82	451	4.96E-09	1.94E-14
46	5/15/2019	45	16	173	3.84	450	4.63E-09	1.90E-14
47	5/16/2019	46	18	179	3.89	451	3.87E-08	6.08E-14
48	5/17/2019	47	18	182	3.87	445	2.62E-08	4.05E-14
49	5/18/2019	48	18	187	3.90	444	2.46E-08	3.84E-14
50	5/19/2019	49	19	191	3.90	440	5.22E-08	7.19E-14
51	5/21/2019	50	19	191	3.82	428	2.37E-08	3.26E-14
52	5/22/2019	51	19	191	3.75	416	1.04E-08	1.97E-14
53	5/24/2019	52	20	195	3.75	413	2.42E-08	2.91E-14
54	5/25/2019	53	20	199	3.75	409	1.84E-08	2.40E-14
55	5/26/2019	54	21	204	3.78	408	4.89E-08	4.82E-14
56	5/27/2019	55	21	208	3.78	405	3.99E-08	3.91E-14
57	5/28/2019	56	21	212	3.79	401	3.03E-08	3.08E-14
58	5/30/2019	57	21	218	3.82	402	3.25E-08	3.23E-14
59	5/31/2019	58	21	222	3.83	398	2.46E-08	2.62E-14
60	6/1/2019	59	22	229	3.88	400	8.05E-08	7.01E-14
61	6/2/2019	60	22	233	3.88	396	6.14E-08	5.18E-14
62	6/4/2019	61	22	236	3.87	391	4.36E-08	3.60E-14
63	6/5/2019	62	22	240	3.87	387	3.29E-08	2.80E-14
64	6/6/2019	63	23	244	3.87	383	7.19E-08	5.11E-14
65	6/7/2019	64	23	248	3.88	380	5.84E-08	4.07E-14
66	6/8/2019	65	23	253	3.89	378	5.08E-08	3.51E-14
67	6/9/2019	66	24	257	3.89	374	1.11E-07	6.99E-14
68	6/11/2019	67	25	262	3.91	371	2.56E-07	1.73E-13
69	6/12/2019	68	25	268	3.94	370	2.40E-07	1.57E-13
70	6/14/2019	69	25	273	3.96	368	2.09E-07	1.30E-13
71	6/15/2019	70	26	278	3.97	365	4.81E-07	3.42E-13
72	6/16/2019	71	26	283	3.99	363	4.21E-07	2.81E-13
73	6/17/2019	72	26	287	3.99	359	3.23E-07	1.90E-13
74	6/18/2019	73	26	291	3.99	355	2.46E-07	1.28E-13
75	6/19/2019	74	27	294	3.97	350	4.97E-07	2.79E-13
76	6/20/2019	75	28	298	3.97	346	1.06E-06	6.91E-13
77	6/21/2019	76	29	303	3.99	343	2.40E-06	1.92E-12
78	6/22/2019	77	29	307	3.99	339	1.86E-06	1.27E-12
79	6/23/2019	78	29	312	4.00	336	1.53E-06	9.35E-13
80	6/25/2019	79	29	317	4.01	333	1.26E-06	6.84E-13
81	6/26/2019	80	29	321	4.01	329	9.65E-07	4.49E-13
82	6/27/2019	81	29	325	4.01	325	7.34E-07	2.94E-13
83	6/28/2019	82	29	329	4.01	321	5.56E-07	1.92E-13
84	6/29/2019	83	29	333	4.01	317	4.19E-07	1.26E-13
85	6/30/2019	84	29	338	4.02	314	3.37E-07	9.27E-14
86	7/1/2019	85	30	343	4.04	311	8.01E-07	2.52E-13
87	7/2/2019	86	31	348	4.05	308	1.87E-06	7.16E-13
88	7/3/2019	87	31	348	4.00	300	1.08E-06	2.95E-13
89	7/4/2019	88	31	352	4.00	296	8.07E-07	1.88E-13
90	7/5/2019	89	31	358	4.02	294	6.98E-07	1.51E-13
91	7/6/2019	90	31	362	4.02	290	5.19E-07	9.66E-14
92	7/7/2019	91	31	362	3.98	282	2.81E-07	4.17E-14
93	7/12/2019	92	31	367	3.99	279	2.22E-07	3.16E-14
94	7/13/2019	93	31	372	4.00	276	1.75E-07	2.48E-14
95	7/14/2019	94	32	376	4.00	272	4.03E-07	5.03E-14
96	7/15/2019	95	32	380	4.00	268	2.93E-07	3.38E-14
97	7/16/2019	96	33	385	4.01	265	7.32E-07	8.49E-14
98	7/17/2019	97	34	389	4.01	261	1.67E-06	2.16E-13
99	7/18/2019	98	34	393	4.01	257	1.23E-06	1.33E-13
100	7/19/2019	99	35	398	4.02	253	2.79E-06	3.48E-13