PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION
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A Simple Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation Model: 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012
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https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/a-simple-expected-electoral-vote-formula-simulation-or-meta-analysis-not-required/
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http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/09/01/monte-carlo-simulation-election-forecasting-and-exit-poll-modeling/
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http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/
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http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/01/24/1968-2012-presidential-election-fraud-an-interactive-true-vote-model-proof/
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http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/03/18/the-2004-2008-county-presidential-true-vote-database-model/
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
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The simulation is based 2-party unadjusted state exit polls and recorded vote shares:
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The Total Electoral Vote is calculated based on the outcomes of 500 election simulation trials.
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The probability of winning each state is required to calculate the probability of winning 270 Electoral Votes.
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The state win probability is calculated based on the two-party exit poll (or recorded vote share) and the margin of error (MoE).
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Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)
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The probability of winning the election is the simple ratio: Election simulation trial wins / 200.
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WATCH the ELECTORAL VOTE HISTOGRAM CHANGE TO REFLECT THE 200 SIMULATION TRIALS...
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Input Codes
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Enter a code from 1-8 in cell A6 to indicate the election and whether to run the simulation based on state exit polls or recorded votes. For example, code 3 indicates the 2004 exit polls.
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2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
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2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
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2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
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2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes Unadjusted exit polls are not available.
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In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes but he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.7-45.6%. Given 105.4 million recorded votes, the exit polls indicated that Gore won by at least 5 million votes. He led the polls in 11 states with 154 electoral votes which all flipped to Bush. If Gore captured just ONE of the 11 states, he would have won the election. Assuming he won all 11, he had 408 electoral votes.
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In the 2004 election, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share and 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the UNADJUSTED STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS indicated that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV.
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BUSH HAD 50.5 MILLION RECORDED VOTES IN 2000. In order to match the 2004 recorded vote, the ADJUSTED 2004 National Exit Poll indicated an IMPOSSIBLE 110% TURNOUT (52.6 million) of LIVING BUSH 2000 VOTERS IN 2004. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.
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In 2008 Obama had a 52.9% recorded share (a 9.5 million vote margin) and 365 electoral votes. But he had a 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls (matched by the True Vote Model) which indicates that he won by 23 million votes and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted 2008 National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.
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In 2012, unadjusted state and national exit polls were not available.The State True Vote Model was used as a proxy.
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Obama had 55% of early voters and 59% of 11.7 million late provisional and absentee ballots.
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But he lost on Election Day by 50-48% for a 51-47% total margin. The True Vote Model indicated that he had at least 55%.
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