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Apply to our Intrinsic Value Community012345
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2024202520262027202820292030
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Growth AssumptionsU.S. Daily Active Users 48,000,000.00 52,500,000 55,650,000 58,989,000 62,528,340 66,280,040 70,256,843
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U.S User Growth Rate (5yr Avg)6.0%International Daily Active Users 53,700,000.00 68,900,000 79,235,000 91,120,250 104,788,288 120,506,531 138,582,510
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International User Growth Rate (5yr Avg)15.0%Total Daily Active Users 101,700,000.00 121,400,000 134,885,000 150,109,250 167,316,628 186,786,571 208,839,353
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U.S ARPU Growth Rate (5yr Avg)10.0%
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International ARPU Growth Rate (5yr Avg)16.00%U.S. Average Quarterly ARPU $ 5.73 $ 7.56 $ 8.32 $ 9.15 $ 10.06 $ 11.07 $ 12.18
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International Average Quarterly ARPU $ 1.33 $ 1.65 $ 1.91 $ 2.22 $ 2.58 $ 2.99 $ 3.47
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Reference NumbersTotal Global Average Quarterly ARPU 3.41 4.21 4.56 4.94 5.37 5.86 6.40
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Implied 5 Yr Revenue CAGR25.86%
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Implied 5 Yr Operating Profit CAGR37.54%Total Revenue $ 1,385,421,000 $ 2,200,000,000 $ 2,457,764,760 $ 2,967,666,401 $ 3,596,250,553 $ 4,374,587,486 $ 5,342,702,368
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Implied Exit Multiple30.85
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Implied Share of International Users by 202966.36%(Up from 53% in 2024)Cost of Revenue $ 123,595,000 $ 194,000,000 $ 220,246,033 $ 270,253,667 $ 332,809,098 $ 415,585,811 $ 427,416,189
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Implied Ratio of International ARPU to U.S. ARPU by 20300.27
(Compared with 0.2 average over last 3 years)
% of revenue8.92%8.82%8.96%9.11%9.25%10%8%
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Sales and Marketing $ 350,579,000 $ 503,900,000 $ 508,771,052 $ 555,210,362 $ 608,068,950 $ 787,425,747 $ 881,545,891
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 Margin Targets Inputs20292030% of revenue25.30%22.90%20.70%18.71%16.91%18.00%16.50%
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Average Cost of Revenue as % of Revenues9.50%8.00%R&D $ 935,132,000 $ 783,150,000 $ 796,278,543 $ 875,068,819 $ 965,115,966 $ 1,137,392,746 $ 1,335,675,592
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Average Sales & Marketing as % of Revenues18.0%16.50%% of revenue67.50%35.60%32.40%29.49%26.84%26.00%25.00%
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Average R&D as % of Revenues26.0%25.00%General and Administrative $ 451,447,000 $ 279,300,000 $ 294,038,039 $ 334,574,805 $ 382,070,093 $ 459,331,686 $ 534,270,237
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Average General And Adminstrative as % of Revenues10.50%10.00%% of revenue32.59%12.70%11.96%11.27%10.62%10.50%10.00%
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Implied 2025-20230 Cost CAGR15.92%Total Costs $ 1,860,753,000 $ 1,760,350,000 $ 1,819,333,668 $ 2,035,107,653 $ 2,288,064,107 $ 2,799,735,991 $ 3,178,907,909
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Implied EV/EBIT Exit Mutliple
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Implied Revenue CAGROperating Profit $ (475,332,001) $ 439,649,999 $ 638,431,092 $ 932,558,748 $ 1,308,186,445 $ 1,574,851,494 $ 2,163,794,459
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Other InputsOperating Margins-34%19.98%25.98%31.42%36.38%36.00%40.50%
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Share Dilution Rate Going Forward1.00%
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Current Price$150.00Shares Outstanding 206,200,000.00 208,262,000.00 210,344,620.00 212,448,066.20 214,572,546.86 216,718,272.33 218,885,455.05
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Margin of Safety for Intrinsic Value Target20%Operating Profits Per share$2.11$3.04$4.39$6.10$7.27$9.89
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Discount Rate 8%
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Cash, Net of Debt$2,200,000,000
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Cash Per Share, Net of Debt $ 10.67
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Scenario Analysis fo Returns Based On 2030 Exit EV/EBIT
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Multiple of Operating ProfitsWeighting
Present Intirnsic Value
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Fair Value $ 247.07 180.025 $ 131.77
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Intrinsic Value Buy Target (with Margin of Safety)
 $ 197.66 200.05 $ 145.23
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Implied Return from Current Price to Fair Value
18.50%220.05 $ 158.68
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250.075 $ 178.87
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270.15 $ 192.32
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300.2 $ 212.51
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320.15 $ 225.96
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350.1 $ 246.15
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380.075 $ 266.33
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400.05 $ 279.79
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420.05 $ 293.24
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450.025 $ 313.43
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