| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Probabilities on US Macroeconomics | ||||||||||||||
2 | |||||||||||||||
3 | Theme | Sub Theme | Question | Historical Percentile Range | Bounds | 19 Oct 2023 | 28 Sep 2023 | 7 Sep 2023 | 17 Aug 2023 | 2 Aug 2023 | |||||
14 | Economics | AUS Building | AUS Building Sep-23: What will be the quarterly percentage change in the number of dwellings commenced as reported by the ABS for September 2023? | <1% | a. Below -50.00% | 0% | 0.47% | 0.47% | 0.47% | 0.65% | |||||
15 | 1% - 3% | b. -50.00% to -25.00% | 1% | 0.93% | 0.93% | 0.93% | 1.30% | ||||||||
16 | 3% - 6% | c. -24.99% to -10.00% | 6% | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.96% | ||||||||
17 | 6% - 15% | d. -9.99% to -5.00% | 9% | 4.19% | 4.19% | 4.20% | 5.87% | ||||||||
18 | 15% - 50% | e. -4.99% to 0.00% | 34% | 27.94% | 27.94% | 21.15% | 29.51% | ||||||||
19 | 50% - 85% | f. 0.01% to 5.00% | 36% | 46.99% | 46.99% | 53.69% | 35.37% | ||||||||
20 | 85% - 94% | g. 5.01% to 10.00% | 9% | 11.87% | 11.87% | 11.91% | 16.63% | ||||||||
21 | 94% - 97% | h. 10.01% to 25.00% | 4% | 4.82% | 4.82% | 4.84% | 6.76% | ||||||||
22 | 97% - 99% | i. 25.01% to 50.00% | 1% | 0.93% | 0.93% | 0.93% | 1.30% | ||||||||
23 | >99% | j. Above 50.00% | 0% | 0.47% | 0.47% | 0.47% | 0.65% | ||||||||
24 | Economics | AUS Building | AUS Building Dec-23: What will be the quarterly percentage change in the number of dwellings commenced as reported by the ABS for December 2023? | <1% | a. Below -50.00% | 1% | |||||||||
25 | 1% - 3% | b. -50.00% to -25.00% | 1% | ||||||||||||
26 | 3% - 6% | c. -24.99% to -10.00% | 7% | ||||||||||||
27 | 6% - 15% | d. -9.99% to -5.00% | 12% | ||||||||||||
28 | 15% - 50% | e. -4.99% to 0.00% | 25% | ||||||||||||
29 | 50% - 85% | f. 0.00% to 5.00% | 32% | ||||||||||||
30 | 85% - 94% | g. 5.01% to 10.00% | 12% | ||||||||||||
31 | 94% - 97% | h. 10.01% to 25.00% | 7% | ||||||||||||
32 | 97% - 99% | i. 25.01% to 50.00% | 1% | ||||||||||||
33 | >99% | j. Above 50.00% | 1% | ||||||||||||
48 | Economics | AUS Cash Rate | AUS Cash Rate Nov-23: What will be the percentage change to the RBA cash rate after the 7 November 2023 Reserve Bank Board meeting? | <1% | a. Below -0.50% | 0% | 0.48% | 0.77% | |||||||
49 | 1% - 5% | b. -0.50% to -0.26% | 1% | 1.92% | 3.06% | ||||||||||
50 | 5% - 15% | c. -0.25% to -0.01% | 3% | 4.80% | 7.66% | ||||||||||
51 | 15% - 85% | d. 0.00% | 82% | 81.55% | 70.57% | ||||||||||
52 | 85% - 95% | e. 0.01% to 0.25% | 12% | 8.85% | 14.11% | ||||||||||
53 | 95% - 99% | f. 0.26% to 0.50% | 1% | 1.92% | 3.06% | ||||||||||
54 | >99% | g. Above 0.50% | 0% | 0.48% | 0.77% | ||||||||||
55 | Economics | AUS Cash Rate | AUS Cash Rate Dec-23: What will be the percentage change to the RBA cash rate after the 5 December 2023 Reserve Bank Board meeting? | <1% | a. Below -0.50% | 0% | |||||||||
56 | 1% - 5% | b. -0.50% to -0.26% | 2% | ||||||||||||
57 | 5% - 15% | c. -0.25% to -0.01% | 4% | ||||||||||||
58 | 15% - 85% | d. 0.0% | 74% | ||||||||||||
59 | 85% - 95% | e. 0.01% to 0.25% | 18% | ||||||||||||
60 | 95% - 99% | f. 0.26% to 0.50% | 2% | ||||||||||||
61 | >99% | g. Above 0.50% | 0% | ||||||||||||
62 | Economics | AUS CPI | AUS-CPI SQ 2023: What will be the quarterly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for Australia as reported by the RBA for the September Quarter 2023? | <5% | a. Below -0.10% | 2% | 1.92% | 2.05% | 2.05% | 2.86% | |||||
63 | 5% - 10% | b. -0.10% to 0.10% | 2% | 1.92% | 2.05% | 2.05% | 2.86% | ||||||||
64 | 10% - 25% | c. 0.11% to 0.40% | 10% | 9.53% | 10.19% | 10.19% | 14.22% | ||||||||
65 | 25% - 50% | d. 0.41% to 0.70% | 51% | 50.66% | 54.15% | 54.15% | 36.01% | ||||||||
66 | 50% - 75% | e. 0.71% to 1.30% | 26% | 26.40% | 21.33% | 21.33% | 29.76% | ||||||||
67 | 75% - 90% | f. 1.31% to 2.00% | 6% | 5.75% | 6.14% | 6.14% | 8.57% | ||||||||
68 | 90% - 95% | g. 2.01% to 2.40% | 2% | 1.92% | 2.05% | 2.05% | 2.86% | ||||||||
69 | >95% | h. Above 2.40% | 2% | 1.92% | 2.05% | 2.05% | 2.86% | ||||||||
70 | Economics | AUS CPI | AUS-CPI DQ 2023: What will be the quarterly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for Australia as reported by the RBA for the December Quarter 2023? | <5% | a. Below -0.10% | 2% | 2.17% | 2.17% | 2.81% | ||||||
71 | 5% - 10% | b. -0.10% to 0.10% | 2% | 2.17% | 2.17% | 2.81% | |||||||||
72 | 10% - 25% | c. 0.11% to 0.40% | 51% | 51.41% | 51.41% | 37.13% | |||||||||
73 | 25% - 50% | d. 0.41% to 0.70% | 18% | 17.83% | 17.83% | 23.07% | |||||||||
74 | 50% - 75% | e. 0.71% to 1.30% | 16% | 15.54% | 15.54% | 20.10% | |||||||||
75 | 75% - 90% | f. 1.31% to 2.00% | 7% | 6.52% | 6.52% | 8.44% | |||||||||
76 | 90% - 95% | g. 2.01% to 2.40% | 2% | 2.17% | 2.17% | 2.81% | |||||||||
77 | >95% | h. Above 2.40% | 2% | 2.17% | 2.17% | 2.81% | |||||||||
84 | Economics | AUS Earnings | AUS Earnings Nov-23: What will be the average weekly earnings reported by the ABS for November 2023? | <1% | a. Below $1,600.00 | 0% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.51% | |||||
85 | 1% - 10% | b. $1,600.00 to $1,700.00 | 3% | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.90% | 4.62% | ||||||||
86 | 10% - 50% | c. $1,700.01 to $1,800.00 | 17% | 16.66% | 16.66% | 16.66% | 26.57% | ||||||||
87 | 50% - 90% | d. $1,800.01 to $1,900.00 | 68% | 67.55% | 67.55% | 67.55% | 57.88% | ||||||||
88 | 90% - 99% | e. $1,900.01 to $2,000.00 | 12% | 12.24% | 12.24% | 12.24% | 9.90% | ||||||||
89 | >99% | f. Above $2,000.00 | 0% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.51% | ||||||||
90 | Economics | AUS Earnings | AUS Earnings May-24: What will be the average weekly earnings reported by the ABS for May 2024? | <1% | a. Below $1,600.00 | 1% | 0.54% | 0.48% | 0.72% | ||||||
91 | 1% - 10% | b. $1,600.00 to $1,700.00 | 5% | 4.85% | 4.32% | 6.45% | |||||||||
92 | 10% - 50% | c. $1,700.01 to $1,800.00 | 33% | 32.65% | 29.11% | 28.66% | |||||||||
93 | 50% - 90% | d. $1,800.01 to $1,900.00 | 44% | 43.81% | 43.86% | 57.01% | |||||||||
94 | 90% - 99% | e. $1,900.01 to $2,000.00 | 18% | 17.62% | 15.71% | 6.45% | |||||||||
95 | >99% | f. Above $2,000.00 | 1% | 0.54% | 6.51% | 0.72% | |||||||||
104 | Economics | AUS GDP | AUS-GDP SQ 23: What will be the quarterly percentage change in the nominal Gross Domestic Product for Australia as reported for the September Quarter 2023? | <5% | a. Below -0.2% | 1% | 0.95% | 1.01% | 0.94% | 1.61% | |||||
105 | 5% - 10% | b. -0.20% to 0.10% | 2% | 1.63% | 1.74% | 9.61% | 1.61% | ||||||||
106 | 10% - 25% | c. 0.11% to 0.80% | 19% | 18.66% | 19.94% | 17.38% | 22.25% | ||||||||
107 | 25% - 50% | d. 0.81% to 1.50% | 69% | 69.29% | 67.17% | 62.62% | 58.43% | ||||||||
108 | 50% - 75% | e. 1.51% to 2.30% | 5% | 4.74% | 5.07% | 4.72% | 8.05% | ||||||||
109 | 75% - 90% | f. 2.31% to 3.00% | 3% | 2.84% | 3.04% | 2.83% | 4.83% | ||||||||
110 | 90% - 95% | g. 3.01% to 3.70% | 1% | 0.95% | 1.01% | 0.94% | 1.61% | ||||||||
111 | >95% | h. Above 3.70% | 1% | 0.95% | 1.01% | 0.94% | 1.61% | ||||||||
112 | Economics | AUS GDP | AUS-GDP DQ 23: What will be the quarterly percentage change in the nominal Gross Domestic Product for Australia as reported for the December Quarter 2023? | <5% | a. Below -0.20% | 2% | 2.53% | 2.71% | 2.31% | ||||||
113 | 5% - 10% | b. -0.20% to 0.10% | 5% | 6.03% | 6.44% | 9.95% | |||||||||
114 | 10% - 25% | c. 0.11% to 0.80% | 44% | 42.99% | 45.96% | 49.40% | |||||||||
115 | 25% - 50% | d. 0.81% to 1.50% | 26% | 23.11% | 17.81% | 15.21% | |||||||||
116 | 50% - 75% | e. 1.51% to 2.30% | 11% | 12.67% | 13.54% | 11.56% | |||||||||
117 | 75% - 90% | f. 2.31% to 3.00% | 7% | 7.60% | 8.12% | 6.94% | |||||||||
118 | 90% - 95% | g. 3.01% to 3.70% | 2% | 2.53% | 2.71% | 2.31% | |||||||||
119 | >95% | h. Above 3.70% | 2% | 2.53% | 2.71% | 2.31% | |||||||||
131 | Economics | AUS Net Foreign Debt | AUS Net Foreign Debt Q3-23: What will the ABS report as Australia's net foreign debt for Q3 2023? | <1% | a. Below 1071.78B | 0% | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.38% | ||||||
132 | 1% - 5% | b. 1071.78B to 1086.88B | 1% | 1.01% | 1.45% | 1.52% | |||||||||
133 | 5% - 10% | c. 1086.89B to 1098.08B | 1% | 1.26% | 1.82% | 1.89% | |||||||||
134 | 10% - 20% | d. 1098.09B to 1131.28B | 3% | 2.52% | 3.63% | 3.79% | |||||||||
135 | 20% - 35% | e. 1131.29B to 1151.12B | 16% | 16.36% | 15.47% | 32.20% | |||||||||
136 | 35% - 65% | f. 1151.13B to 1192.90B | 17% | 16.87% | 15.64% | 16.32% | |||||||||
137 | 65% - 80% | g. 1192.91B to 1202.90B | 33% | 32.50% | 19.41% | 12.99% | |||||||||
138 | 80% - 90% | h. 1202.91B to 1205.49B | 11% | 11.16% | 16.12% | 16.81% | |||||||||
139 | 90% - 95% | i. 1205.50B to 1206.30B | 4% | 3.94% | 5.69% | 5.94% | |||||||||
140 | 95% - 99% | j. 1206.31B to 1208.54B | 1% | 1.01% | 1.45% | 1.52% | |||||||||
141 | 99%< | k. Above 1208.54B | 13% | 13.13% | 18.95% | 6.64% | |||||||||
142 | Economics | AUS Net Foreign Debt | AUS Net Foreign Debt Q4-23: What will the ABS report as Australia's net foreign debt for Q4 2023? | <1% | a. Below 1071.78B | 0% | 0.46% | 0.77% | |||||||
143 | 1% - 5% | b. 1071.78B to 1086.88B | 2% | 1.86% | 3.06% | ||||||||||
144 | 5% - 10% | c. 1086.89B to 1098.08B | 2% | 2.32% | 3.83% | ||||||||||
145 | 10% - 20% | d. 1098.09B to 1131.28B | 5% | 4.64% | 7.66% | ||||||||||
146 | 20% - 35% | e. 1131.29B to 1151.12B | 16% | 16.19% | 16.77% | ||||||||||
147 | 35% - 65% | f. 1151.13B to 1192.90B | 31% | 30.53% | 35.46% | ||||||||||
148 | 65% - 80% | g. 1192.91B to 1202.90B | 10% | 10.38% | 17.13% | ||||||||||
149 | 80% - 90% | h. 1202.91B to 1205.49B | 18% | 18.05% | 7.66% | ||||||||||