2022-11-25 What would it take to run SK on WWS?

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O
1	Generating capacity (net MW)	2022-23 Q1 (MW)	Known Additions by 2027	WWS (+Imports) by 2027
2	Gas	2,160		0
3	Coal	1,389		0
4	Hydro	1,154		1,154
5	Wind	626	600	1,226
6	Solar	81	300	381
7	Other	28	650	678
8	Batteries	0	20	20
9	Totals	5,438	1570	3459	MW
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11	Peak Load	3910	MW
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13	The question is: what would it take to get to 100% WWS (+ batteries?)
14
15	The scenario that we have to plan for is November 10-16, 2022, when wind utilization averaged just
16	https://skelectricity.info/d/jDnuYZO4k/saskatchewan-electricity-mix?orgId=1&viewPanel=8&from=1667282400000&to=1669788000000
17		8.179	percent utilization wind
18		10.011	percent utilization solar (only available during day)
19		31.843	percent utilization hydro
20
21	Assumptions:
22	1. That the 650MW imports line can be 100% utilized during the wind shortage (probably a bad assumption, as if the wind is bad on the NA prairies, other jurisdictions won't be able to supply imports to SK. But this is generous to the 100% WWS+batteries crowd)
23	2. That solar utilization will reflect the Nov 10-16, 2022 average
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25	4. For simplicity, that days and nights are both 12 hours (this is a model simplification, but is generous to the 100% WWS+batteries crowd)
26	5. That an even 75 GWh of energy is needed daily (Based on Nov 10-16, 2022 data)
27	6. That demand is evenly distributed through the day (model simplication)
28	7. That there is little new hydro capacity in Saskatchewan - SaskPower has told us as much several times, and MB Hydro would need their own resources if they went to a 100% WWS world, too.
29	8. That wind is evenly distributed through the week.
30	9. That we can't rely on our neighbours for MORE backup power - as they'll need it too!
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32
33	GWh required per day	75	GWh
34	Average MW required	3125	MW
35	Peak load safety factor	110%	10% is a pretty bare-bones safety factor.
36	Capacity MW required (peak load!)	4301	MW
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38
39	Basic Model (MW)	Day 1	Night 1	Day 2	Night 2	Day 3	NIght 3	Day 4	Night 4	Day 5	Night 5	Day 6	Night 6	Day 7	Night 7
40	Wind	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
41	Hydro	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367	367
42	Solar	76	0	76	0	76	0	76	0	76	0	76	0	76	0
43	Other / Imports	678	678	678	678	678	678	678	678	678	678	678	678	678	678
44	Battery Storage	0.83	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
45	Total	1223	1146	1222	1146	1222	1146	1222	1146	1222	1146	1222	1146	1222	1146
46
47	Missing Capacity Required	3078	3155	3079	3155	3079	3155	3079	3155	3079	3155	3079	3155	3079	3155
48	Maximum missing capacity:	3155
49	MWh battery capacity required	36,938	37,863	36,948	37,863	36,948	37,863	36,948	37,863	36,948	37,863	36,948	37,863	36,948	37,863
50		523.6662608	GWh required
51	How to get the Megawatts when the batteries are dead: Overbuild Wind Capacity
52	If we can't figure out batteries, we could overbuild wind...
53	Take the max missing capacity, divide by wind's average utilization/capacity factor during this time to figure out how much wind we'd actually need to build.
54		38,580	MW of new wind capacity required.			61.62883212
55		This would be even higher due to minute-to-minute variabililty, but this number is absurd enough.
56		2.3	x the generating capacity of Ontario's current nuclear fleet.
57		63	GW wind generation capacity of Germany, a country that consumes about 20x as much electricity as Sask.
58		9,645	Wind turbines, at 4 MW per turbine.
59	Assume:	2.75	km^2 per turbine
60		26,524	km^2 of land
61		$1,700,000.00	per turbine (based on data here https://potentiarenewables.com/potentia-renewables-announces-commercial-operation-golden-south-wind-energy-facility/)
62		$16	Billion Dollars
63
64	Bad Solution #2: Build enough batteries to run the province for a week
65	World's largest battery:	https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_storage_power_station#Largest_grid_batteries
66	Vistra Moss Landing Battery	400	MW, Power
67		1600	MWh, Energy Storage			328.125	Check - this is how many would be needed to cover basic demand for a week.
68		4	Hours of capacity
69
70		Day 1	Night 1	Day 2	Night 2	Day 3	NIght 3	Day 4	Night 4	Day 5	Night 5	Day 6	Night 6	Day 7	Night 7
71	Batteries Required (Power)	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0	8.0
72	Batteries Required (Energy)	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24	24
73	Conclusion, power is not the bottleneck, it's energy.
74		336	Total Vistra Moss Landing Batteries Required
75		$400,000,000	$USD Cost of one battery plant
76		1.3	CAD-USD Exchange
77		$134	Billion Dollars for...
78		524	GWh of battery storage
79		23	GWh - total battery footprint of the USA right now. Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/brahmneufeld/status/1594669992062115840
80		22.8	x more batteries than the US has in 2022.
81		134400	MW of Power (total)
82		3200	MW of Power (at any given time)
83		525	GWh required based on average daily consumption of 75 GWh
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89			Today's Mix	2027 100% WWS Nameplate Capacity Basis	2027 100% WWS Typical Capacity Factor Basis	2027 100% WWS November Wind Drought Effective Capacity
90		Gas	2,160	0	0	0
91		Coal	1,389	0	0	0
92		Hydro	1,154	1,154	367	367
93		Wind	626	1,226	454	37
94		Solar	81	381	95	38
95		Other / Imports	28	678	678	678
96		Batteries	0	20	20	20
97		Gap to Fill		842	2,687	3,160
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