AMC VALUATION MODEL 2024.xlsx

	A
1
2	The purpose of financial modelling is better investing.
3	All financial assets are worth the present value of their future cash flows.
4	What are the future cash flows of AMC? Who has rights to those cash flows?
5	How do we decide what they're worth today?
6
7	To make your own case w/the inputs, choose "Your Case" and ensure all the boxes on the inputs page have something In them for "Your Case"
8
9
10	Shameful disclosure:
11
12	Yes, I have a small plug number in the balance sheet, couldn't find the source of divergence & gave up. Doesn't alter my cash flow math much and is sub <50m in most scenarios.
13
14	In all cases, I leave D&A = Capex, assume no need for further investment.
15	Random balance sheet items such as "other" with minor fluctuations are held constant.
16	OCI is ignored, assumed 0.

	B	C	D	E	F	G
1			1	2	3	4
2			Bear	Base	Bull	Your Case
3	10yr Treasury Yield, Avg Yield, 2023-2028		5.50%	4.25%	3.0%	4.0%
4	CCC Rated Bond Spread on Treasury Yield		9.50%	8.50%	7.50%	8.75%
5	Equity Risk Premium, 2023-2028		8%	6.5%	5.0%	5.00%
6	Cost of Debt		15%	13%	11%	13%
7	AMC Beta		1.80	1.80	1.80	1.80
8
9
10	Theatres Revenue Growth Rate		6.00%	9.00%	12.0%	6.5%
11	Distribution Revenue Growth Rate		15.0%	35.0%	65.0%	25.0%
12
13
14	Inflation Rate, 2024-2029		4.00%	3.50%	2.00%	2.50%
15
16	Averaging Selling Price of Stock		3.00	4.50	7.50	2.50
17	Debt Remaining after Repayment from Equity Sales, M		2000.00	3000.00	4000.00	2500.00
18	Additional Cash Raised, M		1000.00	750.00	0.00	500.00
19
20	ACTIVE CASE	YOUR CASE	4

	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O
1
2		Act	Act	Act	Act	Act	Act	Act	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj
3		12/31/2017	12/31/2018	12/31/2019	12/31/2020	12/31/2021	12/31/2022	12/31/2023	12/31/2024	12/31/2025	12/31/2026	12/31/2027	12/31/2028	12/31/2029
4	REV	5079.2	5460.8	5471	1242.4	2527.9	3911.4	4812.6	5135.8	5482.6	5855.1	6255.9	6687.9	7154.2
5	Admissions	3229.5	3385	3301.3	712.1	1394.2	2201.4	2690.5	2865.4	3051.6	3250.0	3461.2	3686.2	3925.8
6	Food & Bev	1548.4	1671.5	1719.6	362.4	857.3	1313.7	1669.8	1778.3	1893.9	2017.0	2148.1	2287.8	2436.5
7	Other Theatre	301.3	404.3	450.1	167.9	276.4	396.3	396.30	422.1	449.5	478.7	509.8	543.0	578.3
8	Distribution Revenue							56.00	70.0	87.5	109.4	136.7	170.9	213.6
9
10
11	OpEx	4977.2	5195.8	5335	5345.1	3457.9	4433.7	4886.9	5016.1	5143.0	5273.6	5407.9	5546.2	5688.7
12	Film Ex	1604.3	1710.2	1699.1	322.7	607.7	1051.7	1291.1	1323.4	1356.5	1390.4	1425.1	1460.8	1497.3
13	Food & Bev	252.1	270.9	278.7	88.8	137.9	228.6	315.3	323.2	331.3	339.5	348.0	356.7	365.7
14	Other Opex	1548	1654.7	1686.6	856	1141.8	1528.4	1691.5	1733.8	1777.1	1821.6	1867.1	1913.8	1961.6
15	Rent	794.4	797.8	967.8	884.1	828	886.2	873.5	895.3	917.7	940.7	964.2	988.3	1013.0
16	G&A	196.2	210.6	168.5	181.3	240.3	209.7	243.6	249.7	255.9	262.3	268.9	275.6	282.5
17	D&A	538.6	537.8	450	498.3	425	396	365	374.1	383.5	393.1	402.9	413.0	423.3
18	Impairment	43.6	13.8	84.3	2513.9	77.2	133.1	106.9	109.6	112.3	115.1	118.0	120.9	124.0
19	Distribution Expense							5.6	7	8.75	10.9375	13.671875	17.08984375	21.36230469
20
21
22	EBIT	102	265	136	-4102.7	-930	-522.3	-74.3	119.7	339.5	581.5	848.0	1141.7	1465.5
23
24	Operating Margin	2.01%	4.85%	2.49%	-330.22%	-36.79%	-13.35%	-1.54%	2.33%	6.19%	9.93%	13.56%	17.07%	20.48%
25
26	Interest Expense	274	342.3	341	356.9	458.1	378.7	411.2	499.9	350.6	350.6	350.6	350.6	350.6
27	Other Expense	161.1	-201	-33.4	69.9	-108.1	70.1	-92.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
28
29	EBT	-333.1	123.7	-171.6	-4529.5	-1280	-971.1	-393.2	-380.2	-11.1	230.9	497.4	791.1	1114.9
30
31	Tax Provision	154.1	13.6	-22.5	59.9	-10.2	2.5	3.4	-76.0	-2.2	46.2	99.5	158.2	223.0
32
33	Net Income	-487.2	110.1	-149.1	-4589.4	-1269.8	-973.6	-396.6	-304.2	-8.9	184.7	397.9	632.8	891.9
34	Less NCI				-0.3	-0.7	0
35	Net Income to CS	-487.2	110.1	-149.1	-4589.1	-1269.1	-973.6	-396.6	-304.2	-8.9	184.7	397.9	632.8	891.9
36
37	OCI	128.1	-124.5	-31.6	64.8	-67	-49.2	-0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
38	Less NCI				-0.1	-0.9
39
40	Comprenhesive Income	-359.1	-14.4	-180.7	-4524.5	-1335.9	-1022.8	-397.5	-304.2	-8.9	184.7	397.9	632.8	891.9
41
42	Shs Out	127.64	103.48	103.85	224.33	513.98	1248.76	2600	12809.2	12809.2	12809.2	12809.2	12809.2	12809.2
43
44	EPS	-$2.81	-$0.14	-$1.74	-$20.17	-$2.60	-$0.82	-$0.15	-$0.02	$0.00	$0.01	$0.03	$0.05	$0.07

	A	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O
1		Act	Act	Act	Act	Act	Act	Act	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj
2		12/31/2017	12/31/2018	12/31/2019	12/31/2020	12/31/2021	12/31/2022	12/31/2023	12/31/2024	12/31/2025	12/31/2026	12/31/2027	12/31/2028	12/31/2029
3
4	Cash	310	313.3	265	308.3	1592.5	631.5	884.3	881.85	905.25	1123.71	1556.95	2226.84	3157.64
5	Restricted Cash	8.3	10.7	10.5	13.1	27.8	22.9	27.1	27.1	27.1	27.1	27.1	27.1	27.1
6	Receivables	271.5	259.5	254.2	91	168.5	166.6	203.7	273.12	291.56	311.37	332.69	355.66	380.46
7	Assets HFS	80	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Other	202.6	197.8	143.4	74.6	81.5	81.1	88.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	88.0	88.0
9
10	CA	872.4	781.3	673.1	487	1870.3	902.1	1203.10	1270.07	1311.91	1550.18	2004.74	2697.59	3653.20
11
12	Property	3116.5	3039.6	2649.2	2322.5	1962.5	1719.2	1560.4	1560.4	1560.4	1560.4	1560.4	1560.4	1560.4
13	ROU			4796	4451.5	4155.9	3802.9	3544.5	3544.5	3544.5	3544.5	3544.5	3544.5	3544.5
14	Intangibles	380.5	352.1	195.3	163.2	153.4	147.3	146.7	146.7	146.7	146.7	146.7	146.7	146.7
15	Goodwill	4931.7	4788.7	4789.1	2547.3	2429.8	2342	2358.7	2358.7	2358.7	2358.7	2358.7	2358.7	2358.7
16	DTA	28.9	28.6	70.1	0.3	0.6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Other LTA	475.9	505.5	503	304.6	249	222.1	195.8	195.8	195.8	195.8	195.8	195.8	195.8
18
19	LTA	8933.5	8714.5	13002.7	9789.4	8951.2	8233.5	7806.1	7806.1	7806.1	7806.1	7806.1	7806.1	7806.1
20
21	TA	9805.9	9495.8	13675.8	10276.4	10821.5	9135.6	9009.20	9076.17	9118.01	9356.28	9810.84	10503.69	11459.30
22
23	AP	569.6	452.6	543.3	298.8	377.1	330.5	320.5	401.70	411.87	422.33	433.08	444.15	455.57
24	Accured Exp	351.1	378.5	324.6	257.8	367.5	364.3	350.8	401.70	411.87	422.33	433.08	444.15	455.57
25	Deferred Rev	401	414.8	449.2	405.4	408.6	402.7	421.8	450.13	480.52	513.17	548.30	586.16	627.03
26	CPLTD	87.7	82.2	616.1	616.5	634.7	592.8	539.3	250.00	250.00	250.00	250.00	250.00	250.00
27
28	Current L	1409.4	1328.1	1933.2	1578.5	1787.9	1690.3	1632.4	1503.53	1554.26	1607.82	1664.46	1724.46	1788.16
29
30	LTD	4220.1	4707.8	4733.4	5695.8	5408	5120.8	4552.30	2500.0	2500.0	2500.0	2500.0	2500.0	2500.0
31	Finance Leases	578.9	493.2	89.6	83.1	63.2	53.3	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
32	Operating Leases			4913.8	4957.8	4645.2	4252.7	4000.7	4000.7	4000.7	4000.7	4000.7	4000.7	4000.7
33	Exhbitor Svcs	530.9	564	549.7	537.6	510.4	505.8	486.6	486.6	486.6	486.6	486.6	486.6	486.6
34	DTL	49.6	41.6	46	40.5	31.3	32.1	32.4	32.4	32.4	32.4	32.4	32.4	32.4
35	Other	903.8	963.1	195.9	241.3	165	105.1	102.7	102.7	102.7	102.7	102.7	102.7	102.7
36
37	LT L	6283.3	6769.7	10528.4	11556.1	10823.1	10069.8	9224.70	7172.40	7172.40	7172.40	7172.40	7172.40	7172.40
38
39	Total L	7692.7	8097.8	12461.6	13134.6	12611	11760.1	10857.10	8675.93	8726.66	8780.22	8836.86	8896.86	8960.56
40
41	Temp Equity	0.8	0.4	0		0	0
42	APE						0.1	0
43	A Common	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.8	5.1	5.2	2.6	12.8092	12.8092	12.8092	12.8092	12.8092	12.8092
44	B Common	0.8	0.5	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
45	API Capital	2241.6	1998.4	2001.9	2465.6	4857.5	5045.1	6221.9	8774.2	8774.2	8774.2	8774.2	8774.2	8774.2
46	Treasury Stock	-48.2	-56.4	-56.4	-56.4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
47	Accumulated OCI	125.6	5.5	-26.1	38.7	-28.1	-77.3	-78.2	-78.2	-78.2	-78.2	-78.2	-78.2	-78.2
48	Ret Earnings	-207.9	-550.9	-706.2	-5335.3	-6624	-7597.6	-7994.2	-8298.4	-8307.3	-8122.5	-7724.6	-7091.8	-6199.9
49	Tot Equity	2113.20	1398.00	1214.20	-2885.10	-1789.50	-2624.50	-1847.90	410.45	401.56	586.27	984.19	1617.04	2508.95
50	NCI				26.90	0.00	0.00
51	Plug							0.00	-10.21	-10.21	-10.21	-10.21	-10.21	-10.21
52	Tot Equity	2113.20	1398.00	1214.20	-2858.20	-1789.50	-2624.50	-1847.90	400.24	391.35	576.06	973.98	1606.83	2498.74
53
54	Liabilities & Equity	9805.90	9495.80	13675.80	10276.40	10821.50	9135.60	9009.20	9076.17	9118.01	9356.28	9810.84	10503.69	11459.30
55	Check	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE	TRUE
56
57	DSO	19.51	17.34	16.96	26.73	24.33	15.55	15.45	19.41	19.41	19.41	19.41	19.41	19.41
58	DPO	67.52	58.38	59.38	38.01	78.60	57.20	50.14	58.46	58.46	58.46	58.46	58.46	58.46

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N
1		Act	Act	Act	Act	Act	Act	Act	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj	Proj
2		12/31/2017	12/31/2018	12/31/2019	12/31/2020	12/31/2021	12/31/2022	12/31/2023	12/31/2024	12/31/2025	12/31/2026	12/31/2027	12/31/2028	12/31/2029
3	Net Income	-487.2	110.1	-149.1	-4589.4	-1269.8	-973.6	-396.6	-304.2	-8.9	184.7	397.9	632.8	891.9
4	D&A	538.6	537.8	450	498.3	425	396	365	374.1	383.5	393.1	402.9	413.0	423.3
5	Loss on NCM	22.6
6	Loss on Extinguishment of Debt	0.5		16.6	-93.6	14.1	92.8	-142.8
7	Deferred Taxes	157.8	-6.4	-33.7	64	-7.6	1.7	0.7
8	Impairment	43.6	13.8	84.3	2513.9	77.2	133.1	106.9
9	Disposition of Baltics					-5.5	0
10	Hycroft Loss, Unrealized						6.3	12.6
11	Amortization of NP on LTD	-2.7	0.2	11.3	-22	-3.9	-65.4	-55.6
12	Amort of Deferred Chgs	12.7	16	15.8	14.2	23.3	12.6	9.6
13	PIK interest				73.4	116.2	0
14	Theatre Closure	3	2.7	0			0
15	Non-Cash SBC	5.7	14.9	4.4	25.4	43.1	22.5	42.5
16	Gain on Dispositions	-2.5	-3.2	-17.4	-17.4	0.3	1.1	-15.5
17	(Gain) Loss on disposal of NCM	22.6	-30.6		0		13.5
18	Sale of Open Road	-17.2
19	Gain on Derivatives		-111.4	-5.8	109
20	Nordic Rate Swap	-2.6
21	Equity from Non-Consolidated	-3.9	-40	2.7	45.4	1.3	7.6	-0.2
22	NCM HFS Impairment	208	16
23	Landlord Contributions	133.3	127.6	106.5	43.6	22	19.9	23.9
24	Deferred Rent	-52.9	-101.6	-36.6	-1.5	-158.6	-196.7	-159.1
25	Periodic Benefit Cost	0.6	1.1	1.7	1.8	-0.9	-0.6	1.4
26	Non-cash litigation expense							99.3
27	Chg in Receivables	-36.6	-0.2	0.7	159.3	-82.7	4	-45.6	-69.42	-18.44	-19.81	-21.32	-22.97	-24.80
28	Chg in Other	-4.8	-0.4	30.9	76.8	-5.8	2.3	-6.7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
29	Chg in AP	34.7	-85.6	104.8	-176.4	63.8	-40.4	-0.7	81.20	10.17	10.45	10.76	11.07	11.41
30	Chg in Accrued Exp	-21.4	68.5	-0.6	102.5	164.3	-39.2	-26.7	50.90	10.17	10.45	10.76	11.07	11.41
31	Chg in Deferred Revenue								28.33	30.39	32.65	35.13	37.86	40.87
32	Other, Net	-14.5	-6.1	-7.5	43.2	-29.9	-26	-27.6	0	0	0	0	0	0
33
34	CFO	537.4	523.2	579	-1129.5	-614.1	-628.5	-215.2	160.98	406.87	611.53	836.14	1082.84	1354.09
35
36	Capex	-626.8	-576.3	-518.1	-173.8	-92.4	-202	-225.6	-374.1	-383.5	-393.1	-402.9	-413.0	-423.3
37	Acquisition	-577.6		-11.8		26	-17.8	-4
38	Sale/Leaseback	136.2	50.1
39	Dispositons of NCM	89	162.5					30
40	Screenvision		45.8
41	Open Road	9.2
42	Sale of LTA	24.1	14.2	23.2	26	7.9	11.3	16.5
43	NCI Investment	-11.1	-11.4	-9.7	-9.3	-9.3	-27.9
44	Other	-2.3	-2.1	0.3	2.5	-0.4	12.4	3
45
46	CFI	-959.3	-317.2	-516.1	-154.6	-68.2	-224	-180.1	-374.1	-383.5	-393.1	-402.9	-413.0	-423.3
47
48	Issuance	802.8	612.1	1990	1081.8	634.3	1318	832.7	250.00	250.00	250.00	250.00	250.00	250.00
49	Repayment	-748.6	-86.2	-2005.6	-26.2	-405.3	-1550.6	-167.20	-2591.60	-250.00	-250.00	-250.00	-250.00	-250.00
50	Equity Raise	616.8	0	0	264.7	1801.1	220.4		2552.3
51	Sale of NCI				37	-0.4
52	Deferred Financing Costs	-33.6	-15.5	-11.9	-15.4	-19.9	-26.1	-2
53	Dividends	-104.6	-258.1	-84.1	-6.5	0	-0.7
54	Tax Paid Restricted Units	-6.5	-1.7	-1.3	-5.1	-19.1	-52.3	-14.2
55	Buyback	-34	-445.4	0		0	0
56
57
58	CFF	492.3	-194.8	-112.9	1330.3	1990.7	-91.3	649.3	210.70	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
59	FX Effect	17.7	-5.5	1.5	-0.3	-9.5	-22.1	3
60
61	Net Change in Cash	88.1	5.7	-48.5	45.9	1298.9	-965.9	257	-2.45	23.39	218.46	433.25	669.88	930.80
62	Cash Beginning	230.2	318.3	324	275.5	321.4	1620.3	654.4	911.4	908.95	932.35	1150.81	1584.05	2253.94
63	Cash Ending	318.3	324	275.5	321.4	1620.3	654.4	911.4	908.95	932.35	1150.81	1584.05	2253.94	3184.74
64
65	Check	-$ 0.00	-$ 0.00	-$ 0.00	$ -	$ 0.00	$ 0.00	$ 0.00	$ -	$ -	$ -	$ -	$ -	$ -

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
1
2
3
4
5
6	Valuation Summary:	CAPM	CAPM ROR, Justified P/E	BY+ERP	BY+ERP ROR, Justified P/E	CF Summation w/Discounting, Blended ROI	EV/EBITDA	Average
7	Active Case:
8	YOUR CASE	$ 0.46	$ 5.56	$ 3.33	$ 0.38	$ 1.53	$ 6.11	$ 2.90
9
10	Year of Bankruptcy	No Bankruptcy In Model
11	=Cash <200 (debt covenant requirement)

	C	D
1
2	Starting Debt	$ 4,802,300,000.00
3	Ending Debt	$ 2,750,000,000.00
4
5	Price per Share Sold	$ 2.50
6
7	Additional Shares	820920000
8	Proceeds from Issuance	$ 2,052,300,000.00
9
10	Additional Cash Raised	$ 500,000,000.00
11	Additional Shares	200000000
12
13	Total Additional Shares	1020920000

	A	B	C	D	E	G	H	I	J	K	L
1
2		CAPM Method :	Risk Free Rate plus (Equity Risk premium)*(Beta)					Bond Yield Plus Risk Premium Method
3					Shs Out
4		RFR	4%		1581			RFR	4%
5		ERP	5%					CCC Spread	9%
6		Beta	1.80					ERP	5%
7
8		Required Return on Equity:	13.00%		Discounted Value, Millions / Shs Out, Millions			Required Return on Equity:	18%
9		2029 CFO	$ 1,354.09		Discounted Value, Millions / Shs Out, Millions			2029 CFO	$ 1,354.09
10		Discounted back to today	$ 734.95		$ 0.465			Discounted back to today	$ 598.20
11
12								Discounted Value / Shares Out	$ 0.38
13
14
15
16
17
18
19		Multiple Method based on CAPM Return on Equity						Multiple Method based on Bond Yield + ERP Return on Equity
20		Justified P/E	7.69					Justified P/E	5.633802817
21		Summation	$ 5.56					Summation	$ 3.33
22		All Earnings	Multipled by Justified P/E	Divided by Shs Out	Discounted to Today			All Earnings	Multipled by Justified P/E	Divided by Shs Out	Discounted to Today
23	2024	-$ 304.16	-$ 2,339.66	-$ 1.48	$ -		2024	-$ 304.16	-$ 1,713.56	-$ 1.08	$ -
24	2025	-$ 8.90	-$ 68.43	-$ 0.04	$ -		2025	-$ 8.90	-$ 50.12	-$ 0.03	$ -
25	2026	$ 184.71	$ 1,420.85	$ 0.90	$ 0.62		2026	$ 184.71	$ 1,040.63	$ 0.66	$ 0.40
26	2027	$ 397.92	$ 3,060.95	$ 1.94	$ 1.19		2027	$ 397.92	$ 2,241.82	$ 1.42	$ 0.74
27	2028	$ 632.85	$ 4,868.06	$ 3.08	$ 1.67		2028	$ 632.85	$ 3,565.34	$ 2.25	$ 1.00
28	2029	$ 891.91	$ 6,860.84	$ 4.34	$ 2.08		2029	$ 891.91	$ 5,024.84	$ 3.18	$ 1.19
29
30
31		Blended ROI	15.38%
32		All Cash Flows	DCF to today	Divide by Shs Out	Summation
33	2024	$ 160.98	$ 139.53	$ 0.09	$ 1.53
34	2025	$ 406.87	$ 305.66	$ 0.19
35	2026	$ 611.53	$ 398.18	$ 0.25
36	2027	$ 836.14	$ 471.88	$ 0.30
37	2028	$ 1,082.84	$ 529.67	$ 0.33
38	2029	$ 1,354.09	$ 574.09	$ 0.36
39
40
41		EBITDA	Terminal Multiple	EV	Equity Value	Divided by Shs out
42	2029	1665.8	7.692307692	12406.38	9656.38	$6.11