ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Yellow indicates subjective inputs
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Salmon indicates less subjective inputs
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Scenario
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SharedOptimisticModeratePessimisticNotes
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Discount rate2.50%2.50%2.50%
GiveWell CEA, Nov 2016. Cell C6 of Parameters sheet
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Duration of long term benefits of education intervention (in years)403020
Median duration of benefits for deworming was 30 in GiveWell CEA, Nov 2016. 30 years used in DDK (2017)
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Duflo, Dupas and Kremer (DDK), 2017
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Average fixed cost of administering scholarship program as proportion of marginal cost (annual school fees)0.10.30.5
This is a subjective guess, and will depend largely on the extent to which the policy is scaled up
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Replicability adjustment - Ghana scholarships0.90.80.7
Replicability likely quite high - it is a high quality study with good data.
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External validity adjustment - Ghana scholarships10.90.8
The program is fairly typical for scholarship programs in developing countries
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Value assigned to decreasing a woman's fertility by age 25 by one, relative to doubling consumption of an individual for 1 year0.20.10
A value of 0.5 means you are indifferent between reducing two women's fertility by one, and doubling another person's consumption for a year
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Value assigned to avoiding a case of unwanted first pregnancy by age 25, relative to doubling consumption of an individual for 1 year31.50.5
A value of 0.5 means you are indifferent between avoiding two unwanted pregnancies, and doubling another person's consumption for a year
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Value assigned to avoiding a case of a woman living with partner by age 25 by one, relative to doubling consumption of an individual for 1 year0.250.10
A value of 0.5 means you are indifferent between avoiding two women living with partner, and doubling another person's consumption for a year
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Value assigned to decreasing number of men that had sex with commercial sex worker by one, relative to doubling consumption of an individual for 1 year0.20.10
A value of 0.5 means you are indifferent between avoiding 2 men having sex with sex worker, and doubling another person's consumption for a year
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Value assigned to decreasing the number of people with an STI in last 12 months by one, relative to doubling consumption of an individual for 1 year0.20.10.05
A value of 0.5 means you are indifferent between avoiding two people having an STI, and doubling another person's consumption for a year
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Value assigned to people reporting use of (non bednet) mosquito protection by one, relative to doubling consumption of an individual for 1 year0.10.050
A value of 0.5 means you are indifferent between two people using mosquito protection, and doubling another person's consumption for a year
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Bettinger et al, 2017
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Average fixed cost of administering vouchers program as proportion of marginal cost (annual school fees)0.10.30.5
This is a subjective guess, and will depend largely on the extent to which the policy is scaled up
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Proportion of formal sector annual earnings for those not in SISBEN data11.21.4
Guess. Accounts for the fact that roughly the bottom 3/8 of people in the SISPRO data are already counted in the SISBEN data, so the remaining 5/8 have higher income
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Proportion of earnings coming from formal sector for those not in SISBEN data0.750.60.46
Guess. Pessimistic scenario assumes earn same amount in the informal sector as in formal sector, so is based on months worked in formal sector (Table 4, page 47 of Bettinger et al 2017)
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Replicability adjustment - Colombia vouchers0.80.70.6
Replicability likely lower than DDK, because of use of two incomplete datasets
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External validity adjustment - Colombia vouchers1.210.8
Setting not typical for where we might fund as Colombia has higher per capita income and education levels, but effects possibly larger in poorer countries.
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Value assigned to avoiding a case of teenage birth, relative to doubling consumption of an individual for 1 year631
A value of 2 means you are indifferent between one female avoiding teenage birth, and doubling two other people's consumption for a year
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Duflo, Dupas and Kremer (DDK), 2015
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Average fixed cost of administering scholarship program as proportion of marginal cost (annual school fees)0.10.30.5
This is a subjective guess, and will depend largely on the extent to which the policy is scaled up
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Replicability adjustment - Kenya uniforms0.80.70.6
Replicability similar to Bettinger: although high quality data, it is quite a specific intervention carried out in a controlled setting
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External validity adjustment - Kenya uniforms0.80.70.6
Specific intervention, not much external evidence on uniform subsidies
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Value assigned to avoiding a case of pregnancy by age 16, relative to doubling consumption of an individual for 1 year1262
A value of 2 means you are indifferent between one female avoiding pregnancy by age 16, and doubling two other people's consumption for a year
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Value assigned to avoiding a case of marriage by age 21, relative to doubling consumption of an individual for 1 year210.5
A value of 2 means you are indifferent between one female avoiding marriage by age 21, and doubling two other people's consumption for a year
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Test Scores - Glewwe and Muralidharan (G&M), 2016
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Adjustment factor for expected decrease in cost-effectiveness of more robust estimate2510
These papers do not report admin and other costs, also costs of scaling up
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Adjustment factor for effectiveness of changing test scores vs changing IQ520100
A value of 10 means that for every SD increase in measured test scores, we would expect this to correspond to a 0.1 SD increase in IQ
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Percentage increase in wages/consumption for every 1 point increase in IQ1.00%0.75%0.50%
Same methodology as in the GiveWell's iodine CE estimate, using information from DCP2, 'Economic Benefits of Long-Term Improvements in IQ' section here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK11783/
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Average number of years between education intervention and beginning of long term benefits5811
Kenya study targeted girls in grade 6
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