1988-2016 Presidential Election Unadjusted Exit Poll Stats


1	Timestamp	Who did you vote for in 2000?	Sample Question 2
2
3
4		1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: a 52-41% Democratic margin vs. 48-46% recorded
5	8/23/2016 5:00:39		1
6
7		Richard Charnin
8		Updated: July 15, 2013
9
10		This workbook contains unadjusted state exit polls for the 1988-2008 Presidential Elections.
11
12		131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116
13		E-116= 0.000000.....0001 (115 zeros)
14		Data Source: Roper Center UConn
15		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP
16
17		Unadjusted exit polls are based on actual respondent totals.
18		Final Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
19		The unadjusted exit polls are confirmed in other surveys and independent models..
20		https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/electionintegrity
21		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
22		True Vote Models
23		The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares.
24		The TVM closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in each election from 1988-2008.
25		http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm			http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005178.php
26
27		Data Summary
28		The Democrats led all 1988-2008 presidential election averages....
29		- Recorded vote: 48.1 - 46.0%
30		- Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 52.1- 41.4%
31		- Unadjusted national exit poll: 51.9 - 41.7%
32		- True Vote Model 1: 50.2 - 43.2% (previous recorded vote)
33		- True Vote Model 2: 51.6 - 41.8% (previous votes cast)
34		- True Vote Model 3: 52.5 - 40.9% (previous exit poll)
35		- True Vote Model 4: 53.0 - 40.4% (recursive)
36
37
38		States flipping from the Democrats in the exit poll to the GOP in the recorded vote
39
40		1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
41		Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls. He lost by 7 million votes,
42
43		1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
44		Clnton had a 18 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million.
45
46		1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
47		Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes.
48
49		2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
50		Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM.
51
52		2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
53		Kerry needed FL or OH to win. He won the national and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.
54
55		2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
56		Obama had 58% in the state exit polls (exact match to the TVM), a 23 million margin (9.5 recorded) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
57
58		ALL Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls are adjusted to force a match the recorded vote.
59
60
61
62
63		Presidential Summary
64		(in percent)
65				1988-2008
66			1988-2008	Total	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012
67			Votes Cast	688,813	102,224	113,866	105,017	110,826	125,736	131,144
68			Recorded	652,315	91,595	104,424	96,275	105,417	122,294	132,310	129,132
69
70		Recorded Vote	Weighted	Average
71		Democrat	48.15	47.89	45.64	43.01	49.18	48.38	48.28	52.87	51.03
72		Republican	46.02	45.99	53.46	37.46	40.82	47.87	50.72	45.60	47.19
73		Recorded Margin (RV)	2.12	1.91	-7.82	5.55	8.60	0.51	-2.40	7.27	3.84
74
75
76		State Exit Polls (unadjusted)
77		Respondents	374,937	62,490	34,016	54,410	69,716	58,215	76,192	82,388
78					24 states
79		Democrat	52.10	51.96	51.60	47.56	52.66	50.79	51.09	58.06
80		Republican	41.39	41.37	47.31	31.68	36.99	44.37	47.59	40.29
81		Exit Poll Margin (SEP)	10.71	10.59	4.29	15.88	15.67	6.42	3.50	17.77
82		Red Shift	4.29	4.34	6.06	5.17	3.54	2.96	2.95	5.25
83
84		Probability Analysis		Total	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
85		131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-131
86		State Exit Poll MoE +Cluster (average)		3.60%	3.47%	4.06%	3.48%	3.84%	3.43%	3.31%
87		Exit Polls red-shift to GOP		232	21	45	44	34	42	46
88
89		Exit Polls exceeding MoE		135	12	27	19	17	23	37
90		Exit Polls exceeding MoE for GOP		131	12	27	18	16	22	36
91				4.59E-37
92		Probability of red-shift		2.07E-33	1.21E-04	8.00E-09	5.14E-08	6.56E-03	1.35E-06	1.04E-09
93	BINOMDIST	Probability of exceeding MoE		2.61E-98	3.57E-10	4.99E-22	1.79E-12	1.97E-10	5.58E-17	4.59E-37
94
95	BINOMDIST	Probability of exceeding MoE for GOP		4.06E-131	1.22E-13	6.94E-30	1.33E-15	7.38E-14	1.11E-15	4.62E-46
96		Pct exceeding MoE		47.81%	50.00%	52.94%	35.29%	31.37%	43.14%	70.59%
97
98		National Exit Poll (unadjusted)		Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
99		Respondents	71,436	14,287	11,596	15,236	n/a	13,108	13,660	17,836
100			Weighted				pre-elect poll
101		Democrat	51.85	51.58	49.77	46.31	52.20	48.51	51.71	60.96
102		Republican	41.64	41.76	49.11	33.47	37.50	46.27	46.95	37.23
103		Exit Poll Margin (NEP)	10.21	9.82	0.66	12.84	15.00	2.24	4.76	23.73
104		Red Shift	4.04	3.96	4.24	3.65	3.20	0.86	3.58	8.23
105
106		State Exit Poll (WPE)
107		Democrat	50.99	50.75	49.3	45.7	50.2	49.4	51.9	58.0
108		Republican	43.03	43.12	49.7	34.7	39.8	46.9	47.1	40.5
109		Exit Poll Margin (WPE)	7.95	7.63	-0.4	11.0	10.4	2.5	4.8	17.5
110		Red Shift	2.92	2.86	3.71	2.73	0.90	0.99	3.60	5.12
111
112		True Vote Model
113		Democrat	53.18	53.00	50.2	51.1	53.6	51.5	53.6	58.0
114		Republican	40.95	40.98	48.8	30.4	36.5	44.7	45.1	40.4
115		True Vote Margin (TVM)	12.23	12.02	1.4	20.7	17.1	6.8	8.5	17.6
116		Red Shift	5.05	5.06	4.61	7.58	4.25	3.15	5.45	5.17
117
118		Margin Discrepancies
119		TVM - RV	10.11	10.11	9.2	15.2	0.5	6.3	10.9	10.3
120		TVM - SEP	1.53	1.43	-0.2	4.8	1.4	0.4	5.0	-0.2
121		SEP - RV	8.58	8.68	9.3	10.3	6.9	5.9	6.0	10.5
122		NEP - RV	8.09	7.92	8.3	7.3	6.9	1.7	7.1	16.5
123
124		Dem Electoral Vote
125		Recorded		287	104	366	376	260	252	365
126		Unadjusted Exit Polls		399	260	501	463	401	349	420
127
128		True Vote Model	Weighted	Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
129		Based on Prior Election
130		1 Recorded Vote	50.37	50.17	48.6	48.8	48.4	48.5	52.3	54.5
131		2 Votes Cast	51.73	51.57	50.6	50.3	50.0	50.0	53.3	55.2
132		3 Exit Poll	52.68	52.50	50.6	51.2	51.6	50.9	54.3	56.4
133		4 True Vote	53.18	53.00	50.2	51.1	53.6	51.5	53.6	58.0
134
135		2-party Exit Poll share
136		Democrat	55.90	56.59	52.2	60.0	58.7	53.4	51.8	59.0
137		Republican	44.10	43.41	47.8	40.0	41.3	46.6	48.2	41.0
138
139
140
141
142
143			Nat Exit Poll		State Exit		Recorded		State Exit
144
145		Votes	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	> Moe	Red Shift	RS to GOP
146			51.58	41.76	51.72	41.71	48.34	46.16	232	135	131
147
148	2012	129,132	na	na	na	na	51.03	47.19	na	na	na
149	2008	132,310	60.96	37.23	58.06	40.29	52.87	45.6	46	37	36
150	2004	122,294	51.71	46.95	50.97	47.71	48.28	50.72	42	23	22
151	2000	105,417	48.51	46.27	50.75	44.76	48.38	47.87	34	17	16
152	1996	96,275	52.2	37.5	52.64	37.06	49.18	40.82	44	19	18
153	1992	104,424	46.31	33.47	47.59	31.74	43.01	37.46	45	27	27
154	1988	91,595	49.81	49.15	50.3	48.7	45.64	53.46	21	12	12
155
156	MoE Cluster effect
157	30%
158		Correlation: Recorded Swing vs. EP Shift
159		Swing: change in 2-party unadjusted exit poll share from previous election.
160		Red-shift: Diffrence between 2-party unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote in current election.
161				Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
162		Recorded Swing		0.01	-	0.09	0.06	0.20	-0.16	-0.14
163		Unadj Exit Poll Swing		0.46	-	0.65	0.10	0.57	0.62	0.38
164		E/M 2004 Report (WPE)		0.24	-	0.29	0.15	0.05	0.48	-
165
166
167		In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,192 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a subset) by 51.7-47.0% (13660 respondents). The pollsters offered the following hypothesis to explain the discrepancy between the exit poll and recorded vote: Kerry voters were more anxious to be polled; 56 Kerry voters agreed to be interviewed for every 50 Bush voters. Well, of course - because there WERE approximately 56 Kerry voters for every 50 Bush voters. The pollster canard was dubbed the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. The pollsters applied the hypothesis (without any evidence) by adjusting the National Exit Poll (NEP) in order to have it match the recorded vote.
168
169		The adjusted NEP indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush voters and 37% (45.3 million) were returning Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died prior to the 2004 election and 1.0 million did not return to vote. Therefore, there could have been no more than 47 miliion returning Bush voters (38.4%). In other words, there had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS, which meant that an impossible 110% of living Bush 2000 voters had to turn out in 2004.
170
171		Returning Gore and Bush 2000 voter percentage of 2004 electorate (1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout).
172
173		We apply the following methods:
174		1) Votes Cast: Gore 51.0 million recorded + 4.5 of 6 million uncounted: Gore by 50.0-47.3%.
175		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0 / 38.2%
176		Kerry wins by 53.2-45.4%
177
178		2) 2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate: Gore by 50.8-44.5%.
179		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4 / 37.7%
180		Kerry wins by 53.6-45.1%
181
182		3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3%
183		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4 / 37.6%
184		Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7%
185
186		4) 2004 National Exit Poll (adjusted to matched recorded vote)
187		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37 / 43% (impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout)
188		Bush wins by 50.7-48.3%
189
190
191		The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote based on an impossible 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters. Therefore, the recorded vote must also have been impossible.
192
193		Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.5% and the National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%. Therefore it is likely that he won by 3-6 million; a 41.4/ 37.7% Gore/Bush returning voter mix is plausible and so Kerry won the True Vote by 53.6-45.1% - a 10.7 million landslide.
194
195
196				2004 NatIonal Exit Poll (unadjusted)
197				Sample	Kerry	Bush	Other
198				13,660	7,064	6,414	182
199					51.71%	46.95%	1.33%
200
201		Final 2004 National Exit Poll
202		(Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004; forced to match recorded vote)
203
204	2000	Recorded (mil.)	Alive	2004 Turnout	2004 Recorded	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
205	DNV	-	-	-	20,790	17%	54%	44%	2%
206	Gore	51.00	48,454	93%	45,249	37%	90%	10%	0%
207	Bush	50.46	47,933	110%	52,586	43%	9%	91%	0%
208	Other	3.96	3,798	97%	3,669	3%	64%	14%	22%
209
210	Total	105.42	100,185	-	122,294	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
211							59,031	62,040	1,223
212
213
214				True Vote Model
215				(Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
216
217				2000	2004 Cast	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
218				DNV	22,381	17.80%	57%	41%	2%
219				Gore	52,055	41.40%	91%	8%	1%
220				Bush	47,403	37.70%	10%	90%	0%
221				Other	3,898	3.10%	64%	17%	19%
222
223				Total	125,737	100%	53.57%	45.07%	1.36%
224							67,362	56,666	1,709
225
226		Bush Approval Ratings
227		For example, to adjust Kerry's 51.1 - 47.5% unadjusted exit poll margin to Bush's 50.7- 48.3% recorded margin in the Final National Exit Poll,
228		Bush's 50.3% unadjusted approval rating was increased to 53%. Corresponding vote shares were increased as well.
229		Bush had just 48% approval in the final pre-election polls.
230		With 48% approval applied to the NEP shares, Kerry had 53.7% (see the sensitivity analysis table below).
231
232		Party-ID
233		Dem/Rep Party-ID was changed from 38.5-35.1% to 37-37% to match the recorded vote.
234		There were near-perfect correlations between Bush's unadjusted state exit poll shares, approval ratings and Party-ID.
235
236		The 2006 midterms further illustrate how unadjusted exit polls are forced to match a bogus recorded vote. Democratic Party ID was reduced from 39.8% to 38%; GOP increased from 33.4% to 36%. Similar adjustments were made in 2004 and 2008.
237
238		2006 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
239		13,251 respondents			Sample	Democrat	Republican	Other	Margin
240		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/data_access/tag/congressional_elections.html#.T8yypbA7WAg		House	13251	7470	5476	305
241					Total	56.37%	41.33%	2.30%	15.05%
242
243				Senate	9783	5703	3678	402
244					Total	58.30%	37.60%	4.11%	20.70%
245
246				Governor	10552	5751	4181	620
247					Total	54.50%	39.62%	5.88%	14.88%
248
249				Party ID	12850	5110	4288	3452
250						39.77%	33.37%	26.86%	6.40%
251		2006 Adjusted National Exit Poll		______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
252		Adjusted to match recorded vote		Male	49%	50%	47%	3%
253		http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html		Female	51%	55%	43%	2%
254					100%	52.55%	44.96%	2.49%	7.59%
255				Party ID
256				Democrat	38%	93%	7%	0%
257				Republican	36%	8%	91%	1%
258				Other	26%	57%	39%	4%
259					100%	53.04%	45.56%	1.40%	7.48%
260
261
262		The return voter mix was changed.		Voted 2004	Adjusted Mix	Democrat	Republican	Other	Votes
263		(6,361 respondents)		Kerry	43%	92%	7%	1%	2,735
264				Bush	49%	15%	83%	2%	3,117
265				Other	4%	66%	23%	11%	254
266				Did Not Vote	4%	66%	32%	2%	254
267				Total	100%	52.19%	45.88%	1.93%	6361
268
269		How Voted 2004	Exit Poll		Unadjusted Mix
270		45.48%	48.43%	Kerry	48.43%	92%	7%	1%	3,081
271		46.49%	43.57%	Bush	43.57%	15%	83%	2%	2,771
272		4.13%	4.00%	Other	4.00%	66%	23%	11%	254
273		3.90%	4.00%	Did Not Vote	4.00%	66%	32%	2%	254
274				Total	100%	56.37%	41.75%	1.88%	6361
275
276
277
278
279		2004 National Exit Poll		Respondents	Kerry	Bush	Other
280		Unadjusted		13,660	7,064	6,414	182
281		Share			51.71%	46.95%	1.33%
282
283
284				2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll				Final National Exit Poll
285		Party - ID		13,660 respondents				(matched to recorded vote)
286
287			Aggregate				Final
288			Party-ID	Kerry	Bush	Other	Party-ID	Kerry	Bush	Other
289		Democrat	38.76%	91%	9%	0%	37%	90%	10%	0%
290		Republican	35.12%	8%	92%	0%	37%	7%	93%	0%
291		Independent	26.12%	52%	43%	5%	26%	47.62%	48.55%	3.83%
292
293		Share	100%	51.66%	47.03%	1.31%	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
294		Votes	125,736	64,960	59,134	1,642	122,296	59,034	62,044	1,218
295
296
297		Bush Approval
298
299			Actual	Kerry	Bush	Other	Unadjusted	Kerry	Bush	Other
300		Approve	48.00%	9%	90%	1%	50.30%	9%	90%	1%
301		Disapprove	52.00%	95%	4%	1%	49.70%	95%	4%	1%
302
303		Share	100%	53.72%	45.28%	1.00%	100%	51.74%	47.26%	1.00%
304		Votes	125,736	67,545	56,933	1,257	122,296	63,278	57,795	1,223
305
306
307		Sensitivity Analysis
308			Rep	Democratic Party-ID				Total Bush Approval
309			Party-ID	37.00%	38.00%	38.76%	Kerry Bush	50.30%	49.00%	48.00%
310					Kerry share		Appoval		Kerry share
311			35.12%	50.98%	51.37%	51.66%	10%	52.25%	53.35%	54.20%
312			36%	50.52%	50.91%	51.21%	9%	51.74%	52.86%	53.72%
313			37%	50.00%	50.39%	50.69%	8%	51.24%	52.37%	53.24%
314
315
316
317		Democratic Vote Shares
318									Unweighted	Weighted
319			1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	Average	Average
320		State Unadjusted Exit Poll	51.60	47.56	52.66	50.79	51.09	58.06	51.96	52.10
321		National Unadjusted Exit Poll	49.77	46.31	52.20	48.51	51.71	60.96	51.58	51.85
322		State Exit Poll (WPE/IMS)	49.30	45.70	50.20	49.40	51.90	58.00	50.75	50.99
323		True Vote Model	50.20	51.10	53.60	51.50	53.60	58.00	53.00	53.18
324		National Recorded Vote	45.64	43.01	49.18	48.38	48.28	52.87	47.89	48.05
325
326		Votes Cast	102.25	113.87	105.01	110.83	125.74	131.46	51.82	52.03
327		Total	689.15
328
329
330
331
332		Related Links
333
334		http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/EvaluationofEdisonMitofskyElectionSystem.pdf
335
336		US Count Votes analysis of the Ohio 2004 exit poll discrepancies
337		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/OH/2004Election/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf
338
339		Exit Poll Response
340		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/USCV_exit_poll_analysis.pdf
341		http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm
342
343		https://www.facebook.com/richard.charnin/posts/735042649871085
344
345
346
347				REp	11	26	16	12	22	36
348				Dem	0	0	0	1	1	1
349


1
2
3		Election	Recorded	EV	Forecast	EV	True Vote	EV
4	2016	Trump	46.3	306	44.7	306	48.3	358
5	2012	Obama	51.0	332	51.6	332	55.2	371
6	2008	Obama	52.9	365	53.1	365	58.0	420
7	2004	Kerry	48.3	256	51.8	337	53.6	364
8	2000	Gore	48.4	267	na	na	50.7	404
9
10		Model
11	2016	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945
12	2008	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=1
13	2012	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=53
14	2008	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=1
15	2004	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=7
16	2000	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=4


1
2
3
4	2012 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote match)
5					0.96		2012
6	2008	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Return	Turnout	Mix	Obama	Romney	Other	Turnout/alive
7	Obama	52.93%	70.24	69.50	66.72	62.72	62.05	48.1%	90%	7%	3%	93%
8	McCain	45.65%	60.19	59.95	57.55	54.1	55.83	43.2%	7%	93%	0%	97%
9	Other	1.42%	1.88	1.87	1.80	1.68	1.74	1.3%	51%	45%	4%	97%
10	Did Not Vote (new)	-	-	-	-	-	9.51	7.4%	55%	42%	3%
11
12	TOTAL	100%	132.31	131.31	124.75	118.51	129.13	100%	51.01%	47.27%	1.72%
13								Vote	65.9	60.94	2.3
14								Share Margin	3.74%
15								Vote Margin	4.96
16
17	2016 True Vote Model				0.96	0.98	2016
18	2012		Vote share	Votes	Alive	Return	Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Trump	Other	Turnout/alive
19	Obama		51.03%	65.83	63.20	61.93	55.61	40.83%	87%	10%	3%	88%
20	Romney		47.19%	60.88	58.44	57.27	55.52	40.76%	7%	89%	4%	95%
21	Other		2.00%	2.58	2.48	2.43	2.35	1.73%	40%	40%	20%	95%
22	Did Not Vote (new)		-	-	-	-	22.72	16.68%	46%	46%	8%
23
24	TOTAL		100.00%	129.00	124.11	121.63	136.20	100%	46.74%	48.72%	4.54%
25								Vote	63.66	66.36	6.18
26								Share Margin		1.98%
27								Vote Margin		2.70


1												UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS VS. REPORTED VS. TRUE VOTE MODEL
2			ROW 77	28 STATE EXIT POLLS, REPORTED VOTES AND TRUE VOTE CALCULATIONS									https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016						http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president																					When decided
3			413	SUMMARY VOTE SHARES AND ELECTORAL VOTES									http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx						http://www.census.gov/library/publications/2013/demo/p20-568.html																					NATIONAL		Clinton	Trump	Margin
4													http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/																											month	26%	40%	48%	8%
5						Final CNN exit poll		Party-ID based on Gallup Survey				Unadjusted	Reported			Margin Discrepancies			Reported			Gallup	National			Share of Independents														before	73%	51%	45%	-6%
6				Unadjusted Exit Poll		Matched to reported		True Vote Model 1		True Vote Model 2		Exit Poll	Vote	TVM1	TVM2	Exit Poll-	TVM1 -	TVM2 -	Party-ID			32%	28%	40%		Unadj		Reported			When decided				Before Oct.1			Chg	Last week	calc	93.0%	47.6%	45.3%	-2.3%
7				Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Margin	Margin	Margin	Reported	Reported	Reported	Democrat	Repub	Ind	Democrat	Repub	Ind		Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump		After Oct.1	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Margin		Reported	94.4%	48.2%	46.2%	-2.0%
8		Total	110,702	47.6%	44.6%	46.6%	46.7%	45.9%	46.8%	42.9%	49.1%	-3.0%	0.16%	0.9%	6.2%	-3.2%	0.8%	6.0%	35.3%	32.5%	32.2%	32.5%	29.2%	38.4%		43.7%	40.9%	40.4%	47.7%		25.57%	38.1%	50.5%	12.4%	49.4%	37.0%	-12.4%	24.7%	14.1%
9		Wtd Avg		49.6%	43.6%	49.3%	45.2%	48.1%	45.6%	44.3%	48.1%	-6.0%	-4.1%	-2.6%	3.8%	-1.9%	1.5%	7.9%	37.5%	31.8%	30.8%	33.6%	28.4%	38.0%		43.8%	41.5%	42.0%	47.1%		25.55%	40.7%	50.8%	10.0%	52.3%	44.1%	-8.2%	18.2%	13.5%	When decided
10	1	OH	5,496	47.0%	47.1%	43.6%	51.7%	43.9%	51.1%	42.9%	50.4%	0.1%	8.1%	7.2%	7.5%	-8.0%	-0.9%	-0.6%	34%	37%	29%	32.4%	33.4%	34.2%	OH	50%	35%	38%	51%	OH	25%	37%	54%	17%	47%	50%	3%	14%	15%	WA		Clinton	Trump	Margin
11	2	NC	4,742	48.6%	46.5%	46.2%	49.8%	47.3%	48.1%	45.7%	46.6%	-2.1%	3.7%	0.8%	0.8%	-5.8%	-2.8%	-2.8%	35%	31%	34%	32.9%	24.2%	42.9%	NC	47%	43%	39%	53%	NC	25%	33%	57%	24%	51%	47%	-4%	28%	8%	month	22%	46%	41%	-5%
12	3	NJ	3,907	59.8%	35.8%	55.0%	41.0%	53.6%	44.1%	44.6%	46.4%	-24.0%	-14.0%	-9.5%	1.8%	-10.0%	4.4%	15.8%	43%	27%	30%	25.8%	15.7%	58.5%	NJ	67%	28%	51%	48%	NJ	25%	50%	41%	-9%	55%	43%	-12%	3%	17%	before	75%	57%	38%	-19%
13	4	PA	5,950	50.5%	46.1%	47.9%	48.6%	48.9%	46.7%	47.8%	45.8%	-4.4%	0.7%	-2.3%	-2.0%	-5.1%	-3.0%	-2.7%	41%	39%	20%	39.1%	29.2%	31.7%	PA	53%	41%	36%	53%	PA	24%	43%	49%	6%	47%	51%	4%	2%	15%	calc	90.4%	52.9%	37.5%	-15.4%
14	5	MI	4,799	46.8%	46.8%	47.3%	47.5%	45.5%	48.3%	45.1%	47.0%	0.0%	0.2%	2.7%	2.0%	-0.2%	2.5%	1.7%	40%	31%	29%	34.7%	29.4%	35.9%	MI	32%	53%	36%	52%	MI	26%	37%	52%	15%	50%	47%	-3%	18%	13%	Reported	93.1%	54.7%	38.4%	-16.4%
15	6	MO	2,809	42.8%	51.2%	38.1%	56.8%	37.2%	57.4%	41.5%	51.7%	8.4%	18.6%	20.2%	10.2%	-10.2%	1.6%	-8.5%	34%	39%	27%	30.8%	35.0%	34.2%	MO	45%	40%	28%	62%	MO	29%	36%	52%	16%	38%	59%	21%	-5%	15%
16	7	IA	1,566	44.1%	48.0%	41.7%	51.1%	42.7%	49.8%	40.6%	49.6%	3.9%	9.4%	7.1%	9.0%	-5.5%	-2.3%	-0.4%	31%	34%	35%	29.6%	29.0%	41.4%	IA	42%	41%	36%	50%	IA	26%	35%	53%	18%	47%	47%	0%	18%	14%
17	8	FL	9,420	47.7%	46.4%	47.8%	49.0%	49.3%	45.9%	43.6%	48.9%	-1.3%	1.2%	-3.4%	5.4%	-2.5%	-4.6%	4.2%	32%	33%	35%	37.0%	31.7%	31.3%	FL	47%	42%	43%	47%	FL	26%	43%	50%	7%	49%	49%	0%	7%	11%
18	9	WI	2,976	48.2%	44.3%	46.5%	47.2%	47.2%	47.1%	43.6%	48.4%	-3.9%	0.8%	-0.1%	4.8%	-4.7%	-0.9%	4.0%	35%	35%	30%	33.9%	32.6%	33.5%	WI	47%	34%	43%	46%	WI	14%	30%	59%	29%	49%	47%	-2%	31%	14%	IL		Clinton	Trump	Margin
19	10	VA	3,983	50.9%	43.2%	49.8%	44.4%	46.1%	48.1%	42.0%	49.5%	-7.7%	-5.3%	2.0%	7.5%	-2.4%	7.3%	12.8%	40%	33%	27%	31.6%	33.4%	35.0%	VA	47%	45%	43%	48%	VA	23%	42%	48%	6%	52%	44%	-8%	14%	14%	month	30%	34%	71%	37%	match calc
20	11	NV	1,125	48.7%	42.8%	47.9%	45.5%	45.6%	47.3%	44.8%	50.6%	-5.9%	-2.4%	1.7%	5.8%	-3.5%	4.1%	8.2%	36%	28%	36%	31.3%	27.5%	41.2%	NV	39%	43%	37%	50%	NV	11%	45%	40%	-5%	49%	44%	-5%	0%	11%	before	69%	66%	32%	-34%
21	12	NH	742	49.4%	44.2%	47.0%	46.6%	46.2%	46.9%	39.8%	51.5%	-5.2%	-0.4%	0.7%	11.8%	-4.8%	1.0%	12.1%	28%	28%	44%	21.5%	23.9%	54.6%	NH	49%	41%	45%	45%	NH	29%	42%	50%	8%	51%	45%	-6%	14%	20%	calc	99.2%	55.8%	43.4%	-12.4%
22	13	MN	2,945	45.7%	45.8%	46.4%	44.9%	46.8%	45.2%	44.3%	46.7%	0.1%	-1.5%	-1.6%	2.4%	1.6%	0.0%	3.9%	37%	35%	28%	34.7%	31.0%	34.3%	MN	39%	43%	42%	44%	MN	29%	33%	51%	18%	51%	41%	-10%	28%	20%	Reported	94.6%	55.8%	38.8%	-17.1%
23	14	ME	748	51.2%	40.2%	47.8%	44.9%	48.7%	43.0%	42.5%	49.0%	-11.0%	-3.0%	-5.6%	6.5%	-8.0%	-2.7%	9.4%	32%	27%	41%	25.2%	21.6%	53.3%	ME	54%	28%	46%	41%	ME	31%	35%	51%	16%	51%	43%	-8%	24%	22%
24	15	CO	2,780	46.5%	41.5%	48.2%	43.3%	44.1%	47.5%	42.0%	47.6%	-5.0%	-4.9%	3.4%	5.5%	-0.1%	8.3%	10.4%	32%	24%	44%	24.4%	26.2%	49.4%	CO	39%	41%	42%	45%	CO	22%	37%	48%	11%	52%	42%	-10%	21%	6%
25	16	TX	8,969	42.3%	51.8%	43.2%	52.2%	44.6%	50.0%	41.2%	50.9%	9.5%	9.0%	5.4%	9.7%	0.5%	-3.6%	0.7%	29%	38%	33%	29.2%	32.6%	38.2%	TX	36%	51%	38%	52%	TX	24%	46%	47%	1%	44%	51%	7%	-6%	10%	CA		Clinton	Trump	Margin
26	17	IL	5,536	53.6%	38.4%	55.8%	38.8%	51.1%	41.4%	46.7%	45.1%	-15.2%	-17.1%	-9.7%	-1.7%	1.9%	7.4%	15.4%	45%	30%	25%	37.1%	27.8%	35.1%	IL	37%	39%	44%	43%	IL	30%	34%	71%	37%	66%	32%	-34%	71%	22%	month	29%	51%	42%	-9%
27	18	CA	14,182	60.0%	31.5%	61.7%	31.6%	56.1%	36.5%	46.9%	44.7%	-28.5%	-30.1%	-19.6%	-2.2%	1.6%	10.5%	27.9%	47%	23%	30%	34.2%	22.3%	43.5%	CA	46%	33%	50%	37%	CA	29%	51%	42%	-9%	67%	29%	-38%	29%	13%	before	68%	67%	29%	-38%
28	19	NY	7,456	55.8%	39.8%	59.6%	36.7%	58.2%	37.3%	51.4%	44.0%	-16.0%	-22.8%	-20.9%	-7.4%	6.8%	1.9%	15.4%	48%	26%	26%	39.0%	19.0%	42.0%	NY	36%	51%	49%	42%	NY	26%	38%	60%	22%	67%	31%	-36%	58%	17%	calc	92.3%	60.4%	31.9%	-28.5%
29	20	GA	4,115	46.8%	48.2%	45.6%	50.8%	44.7%	51.9%	42.4%	53.2%	1.4%	5.1%	7.2%	10.8%	-3.7%	2.1%	5.7%	34%	36%	30%	30.8%	34.2%	35.0%	GA	45%	42%	41%	52%	GA	20%	47%	55%	8%	45%	53%	8%	0%	10%	Reported	93.3%	61.7%	31.6%	-30.1%
30	21	AZ	2,573	46.8%	48.2%	45.1%	48.7%	44.1%	49.1%	38.9%	50.6%	1.4%	3.5%	4.9%	11.7%	-2.1%	1.4%	8.2%	28%	32%	40%	22.8%	27.4%	49.8%	AZ	49%	45%	44%	47%	AZ	25%	40%	48%	8%	48%	48%	0%	8%	9%
31	22	WA	3,184	51.3%	35.8%	54.7%	38.4%	49.0%	43.7%	43.6%	49.1%	-15.5%	-16.4%	-5.3%	5.5%	0.9%	11.1%	21.8%	34%	20%	46%	35.5%	35.8%	28.7%	WA	41%	37%	48%	40%	WA	22%	46%	41%	-5%	57%	38%	-19%	14%	6%
32	23	UT	1,131	32.4%	41.8%	27.5%	45.5%	27.8%	45.8%	31.9%	59.5%	9.4%	18.1%	17.9%	27.6%	-8.7%	-0.1%	9.5%	20%	45%	35%	20.5%	46.9%	32.6%	UT	39%	31%	27%	42%	UT	44%	17%	39%	22%	36%	52%	16%	6%	20%	NY		Clinton	Trump	Margin
33	24	SC	2,103	42.8%	50.3%	40.7%	54.9%	46.1%	48.1%	41.1%	50.3%	7.5%	14.3%	2.0%	9.2%	-6.8%	-12.3%	-5.0%	27%	46%	27%	34.2%	35.0%	30.8%	SC	57%	26%	46%	43%	SC	26%	39%	50%	11%	42%	56%	14%	-3%	16%	month	26%	38%	60%	22%	match calc
34	25	KY	1,924	35.0%	61.5%	32.7%	62.5%	34.0%	59.9%	36.5%	54.5%	26.5%	29.8%	25.8%	18.0%	-3.3%	-4.0%	-11.8%	38%	44%	18%	40.0%	28.0%	32.0%	KY	29%	68%	23%	67%	KY	28%	27%	63%	36%	31%	67%	36%	0%	17%	before	74%	67%	31%	-36%
35	26	OR	2,001	50.7%	38.8%	50.1%	39.1%	49.1%	40.9%	43.5%	45.2%	-11.9%	-11.0%	-8.2%	1.7%	-0.9%	2.8%	12.7%	33%	23%	44%	46.4%	23.8%	29.8%	OR	43%	40%	43%	41%	OR	20%	32%	48%	16%	54%	38%	-16%	32%	4%	calc	98.1%	59.6%	38.5%	-21.0%
36	27	NM	798	47.9%	37.8%	48.3%	40.0%	47.0%	40.4%	43.6%	49.0%	-10.1%	-8.2%	-6.6%	5.4%	-1.9%	1.7%	13.6%	41%	27%	32%	38.4%	24.8%	36.8%	NM	36%	35%	37%	42%	NM	28%	37%	41%	4%	52%	40%	-12%	16%	14%	Reported	96.3%	59.6%	36.7%	-22.8%
37	28	IN	2,741	39.6%	53.9%	37.9%	56.8%	39.4%	48.6%	43.7%	49.4%	14.3%	18.9%	9.2%	5.7%	-4.6%	-9.7%	-13.2%	34%	39%	27%	35.8%	35.0%	29.2%	IN	32%	50%	36%	53%	IN	29%	34%	53%	19%	35%	61%	26%	-7%	21%
38
39																																			Before	After
40																																		IA	0%	18%