1 | Timestamp | Who did you vote for in 2000? | Sample Question 2 | ||||||||
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2 | |||||||||||
3 | |||||||||||
4 | 1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: a 52-41% Democratic margin vs. 48-46% recorded | ||||||||||
5 | 8/23/2016 5:00:39 | 1 | |||||||||
6 | |||||||||||
7 | Richard Charnin | ||||||||||
8 | Updated: July 15, 2013 | ||||||||||
9 | |||||||||||
10 | This workbook contains unadjusted state exit polls for the 1988-2008 Presidential Elections. | ||||||||||
11 | |||||||||||
12 | 131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116 | ||||||||||
13 | E-116= 0.000000.....0001 (115 zeros) | ||||||||||
14 | Data Source: Roper Center UConn | ||||||||||
15 | http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP | ||||||||||
16 | |||||||||||
17 | Unadjusted exit polls are based on actual respondent totals. | ||||||||||
18 | Final Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. | ||||||||||
19 | The unadjusted exit polls are confirmed in other surveys and independent models.. | ||||||||||
20 | https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/electionintegrity | ||||||||||
21 | http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf | ||||||||||
22 | True Vote Models | ||||||||||
23 | The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. | ||||||||||
24 | The TVM closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in each election from 1988-2008. | ||||||||||
25 | http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm | http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005178.php | |||||||||
26 | |||||||||||
27 | Data Summary | ||||||||||
28 | The Democrats led all 1988-2008 presidential election averages.... | ||||||||||
29 | - Recorded vote: 48.1 - 46.0% | ||||||||||
30 | - Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 52.1- 41.4% | ||||||||||
31 | - Unadjusted national exit poll: 51.9 - 41.7% | ||||||||||
32 | - True Vote Model 1: 50.2 - 43.2% (previous recorded vote) | ||||||||||
33 | - True Vote Model 2: 51.6 - 41.8% (previous votes cast) | ||||||||||
34 | - True Vote Model 3: 52.5 - 40.9% (previous exit poll) | ||||||||||
35 | - True Vote Model 4: 53.0 - 40.4% (recursive) | ||||||||||
36 | |||||||||||
37 | |||||||||||
38 | States flipping from the Democrats in the exit poll to the GOP in the recorded vote | ||||||||||
39 | |||||||||||
40 | 1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VTÂ | ||||||||||
41 | Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls. He lost by 7 million votes, | ||||||||||
42 | |||||||||||
43 | 1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VAÂ | ||||||||||
44 | Clnton had a 18 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million. | ||||||||||
45 | |||||||||||
46 | 1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VAÂ | ||||||||||
47 | Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes. | ||||||||||
48 | |||||||||||
49 | 2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VAÂ | ||||||||||
50 | Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM. | ||||||||||
51 | |||||||||||
52 | 2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA | ||||||||||
53 | Kerry needed FL or OH to win. He won the national and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%. | ||||||||||
54 | |||||||||||
55 | 2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NEÂ | ||||||||||
56 | Obama had 58% in the state exit polls (exact match to the TVM), a 23 million margin (9.5 recorded) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll. | ||||||||||
57 | |||||||||||
58 | ALL Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls are adjusted to force a match the recorded vote. | ||||||||||
59 | |||||||||||
60 | |||||||||||
61 | |||||||||||
62 | |||||||||||
63 | Presidential Summary | ||||||||||
64 | (in percent) | ||||||||||
65 | 1988-2008 | ||||||||||
66 | 1988-2008 | Total | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | ||
67 | Votes Cast | 688,813 | 102,224 | 113,866 | 105,017 | 110,826 | 125,736 | 131,144 | |||
68 | Recorded | 652,315 | 91,595 | 104,424 | 96,275 | 105,417 | 122,294 | 132,310 | 129,132 | ||
69 | |||||||||||
70 | Recorded Vote | Weighted | Average | ||||||||
71 | Democrat | 48.15 | 47.89 | 45.64 | 43.01 | 49.18 | 48.38 | 48.28 | 52.87 | 51.03 | |
72 | Republican | 46.02 | 45.99 | 53.46 | 37.46 | 40.82 | 47.87 | 50.72 | 45.60 | 47.19 | |
73 | Recorded Margin (RV) | 2.12 | 1.91 | -7.82 | 5.55 | 8.60 | 0.51 | -2.40 | 7.27 | 3.84 | |
74 | |||||||||||
75 | |||||||||||
76 | State Exit Polls (unadjusted) | ||||||||||
77 | Respondents | 374,937 | 62,490 | 34,016 | 54,410 | 69,716 | 58,215 | 76,192 | 82,388 | ||
78 | 24 states | ||||||||||
79 | Democrat | 52.10 | 51.96 | 51.60 | 47.56 | 52.66 | 50.79 | 51.09 | 58.06 | ||
80 | Republican | 41.39 | 41.37 | 47.31 | 31.68 | 36.99 | 44.37 | 47.59 | 40.29 | ||
81 | Exit Poll Margin (SEP) | 10.71 | 10.59 | 4.29 | 15.88 | 15.67 | 6.42 | 3.50 | 17.77 | ||
82 | Red Shift | 4.29 | 4.34 | 6.06 | 5.17 | 3.54 | 2.96 | 2.95 | 5.25 | ||
83 | |||||||||||
84 | Probability Analysis | Total | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | |||
85 | 131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-131 | ||||||||||
86 | State Exit Poll MoE +Cluster (average) | 3.60% | 3.47% | 4.06% | 3.48% | 3.84% | 3.43% | 3.31% | |||
87 | Exit Polls red-shift to GOP | 232 | 21 | 45 | 44 | 34 | 42 | 46 | |||
88 | |||||||||||
89 | Exit Polls exceeding MoE | 135 | 12 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 23 | 37 | |||
90 | Exit Polls exceeding MoE for GOP | 131 | 12 | 27 | 18 | 16 | 22 | 36 | |||
91 | 4.59E-37 | ||||||||||
92 | Probability of red-shift | 2.07E-33 | 1.21E-04 | 8.00E-09 | 5.14E-08 | 6.56E-03 | 1.35E-06 | 1.04E-09 | |||
93 | BINOMDIST | Probability of exceeding MoE | 2.61E-98 | 3.57E-10 | 4.99E-22 | 1.79E-12 | 1.97E-10 | 5.58E-17 | 4.59E-37 | ||
94 | |||||||||||
95 | BINOMDIST | Probability of exceeding MoE for GOP | 4.06E-131 | 1.22E-13 | 6.94E-30 | 1.33E-15 | 7.38E-14 | 1.11E-15 | 4.62E-46 | ||
96 | Pct exceeding MoE | 47.81% | 50.00% | 52.94% | 35.29% | 31.37% | 43.14% | 70.59% | |||
97 | |||||||||||
98 | National Exit Poll (unadjusted) | Average | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | |||
99 | Respondents | 71,436 | 14,287 | 11,596 | 15,236 | n/a | 13,108 | 13,660 | 17,836 | ||
100 | Weighted | pre-elect poll | |||||||||
101 | Democrat | 51.85 | 51.58 | 49.77 | 46.31 | 52.20 | 48.51 | 51.71 | 60.96 | ||
102 | Republican | 41.64 | 41.76 | 49.11 | 33.47 | 37.50 | 46.27 | 46.95 | 37.23 | ||
103 | Exit Poll Margin (NEP) | 10.21 | 9.82 | 0.66 | 12.84 | 15.00 | 2.24 | 4.76 | 23.73 | ||
104 | Red Shift | 4.04 | 3.96 | 4.24 | 3.65 | 3.20 | 0.86 | 3.58 | 8.23 | ||
105 | |||||||||||
106 | State Exit Poll (WPE) | ||||||||||
107 | Democrat | 50.99 | 50.75 | 49.3 | 45.7 | 50.2 | 49.4 | 51.9 | 58.0 | ||
108 | Republican | 43.03 | 43.12 | 49.7 | 34.7 | 39.8 | 46.9 | 47.1 | 40.5 | ||
109 | Exit Poll Margin (WPE) | 7.95 | 7.63 | -0.4 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 17.5 | ||
110 | Red Shift | 2.92 | 2.86 | 3.71 | 2.73 | 0.90 | 0.99 | 3.60 | 5.12 | ||
111 | |||||||||||
112 | True Vote Model | ||||||||||
113 | Democrat | 53.18 | 53.00 | 50.2 | 51.1 | 53.6 | 51.5 | 53.6 | 58.0 | ||
114 | Republican | 40.95 | 40.98 | 48.8 | 30.4 | 36.5 | 44.7 | 45.1 | 40.4 | ||
115 | True Vote Margin (TVM) | 12.23 | 12.02 | 1.4 | 20.7 | 17.1 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 17.6 | ||
116 | Red Shift | 5.05 | 5.06 | 4.61 | 7.58 | 4.25 | 3.15 | 5.45 | 5.17 | ||
117 | |||||||||||
118 | Margin Discrepancies | ||||||||||
119 | TVM - RV | 10.11 | 10.11 | 9.2 | 15.2 | 0.5 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 10.3 | ||
120 | TVM - SEP | 1.53 | 1.43 | -0.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 5.0 | -0.2 | ||
121 | SEP - RV | 8.58 | 8.68 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 10.5 | ||
122 | NEP - RV | 8.09 | 7.92 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 7.1 | 16.5 | ||
123 | |||||||||||
124 | Dem Electoral Vote | ||||||||||
125 | Recorded | 287 | 104 | 366 | 376 | 260 | 252 | 365 | |||
126 | Unadjusted Exit Polls | 399 | 260 | 501 | 463 | 401 | 349 | 420 | |||
127 | |||||||||||
128 | True Vote Model | Weighted | Average | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | ||
129 | Based on Prior Election | ||||||||||
130 | 1 Recorded Vote | 50.37 | 50.17 | 48.6 | 48.8 | 48.4 | 48.5 | 52.3 | 54.5 | ||
131 | 2 Votes Cast | 51.73 | 51.57 | 50.6 | 50.3 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 53.3 | 55.2 | ||
132 | 3 Exit Poll | 52.68 | 52.50 | 50.6 | 51.2 | 51.6 | 50.9 | 54.3 | 56.4 | ||
133 | 4 True Vote | 53.18 | 53.00 | 50.2 | 51.1 | 53.6 | 51.5 | 53.6 | 58.0 | ||
134 | |||||||||||
135 | 2-party Exit Poll share | ||||||||||
136 | Democrat | 55.90 | 56.59 | 52.2 | 60.0 | 58.7 | 53.4 | 51.8 | 59.0 | ||
137 | Republican | 44.10 | 43.41 | 47.8 | 40.0 | 41.3 | 46.6 | 48.2 | 41.0 | ||
138 | |||||||||||
139 | |||||||||||
140 | |||||||||||
141 | |||||||||||
142 | |||||||||||
143 | Nat Exit Poll | State Exit | Recorded | State Exit | |||||||
144 | |||||||||||
145 | Votes | Dem | Rep | Dem | Rep | Dem | Rep | > Moe | Red Shift | RS to GOP | |
146 | 51.58 | 41.76 | 51.72 | 41.71 | 48.34 | 46.16 | 232 | 135 | 131 | ||
147 | |||||||||||
148 | 2012 | 129,132 | na | na | na | na | 51.03 | 47.19 | na | na | na |
149 | 2008 | 132,310 | 60.96 | 37.23 | 58.06 | 40.29 | 52.87 | 45.6 | 46 | 37 | 36 |
150 | 2004 | 122,294 | 51.71 | 46.95 | 50.97 | 47.71 | 48.28 | 50.72 | 42 | 23 | 22 |
151 | 2000 | 105,417 | 48.51 | 46.27 | 50.75 | 44.76 | 48.38 | 47.87 | 34 | 17 | 16 |
152 | 1996 | 96,275 | 52.2 | 37.5 | 52.64 | 37.06 | 49.18 | 40.82 | 44 | 19 | 18 |
153 | 1992 | 104,424 | 46.31 | 33.47 | 47.59 | 31.74 | 43.01 | 37.46 | 45 | 27 | 27 |
154 | 1988 | 91,595 | 49.81 | 49.15 | 50.3 | 48.7 | 45.64 | 53.46 | 21 | 12 | 12 |
155 | |||||||||||
156 | MoE Cluster effect | ||||||||||
157 | 30% | ||||||||||
158 | Correlation: Recorded Swing vs. EP Shift | ||||||||||
159 | Swing: change in 2-party unadjusted exit poll share from previous election. | ||||||||||
160 | Red-shift: Diffrence between 2-party unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote in current election. | ||||||||||
161 | Average | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | ||||
162 | Recorded Swing | 0.01 | - | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.20 | -0.16 | -0.14 | |||
163 | Unadj Exit Poll Swing | 0.46 | - | 0.65 | 0.10 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.38 | |||
164 | E/M 2004 Report (WPE) | 0.24 | - | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.48 | - | |||
165 | |||||||||||
166 | |||||||||||
167 | In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,192 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a subset) by 51.7-47.0% (13660 respondents). The pollsters offered the following hypothesis to explain the discrepancy between the exit poll and recorded vote: Kerry voters were more anxious to be polled; 56 Kerry voters agreed to be interviewed for every 50 Bush voters. Well, of course - because there WERE approximately 56 Kerry voters for every 50 Bush voters. The pollster canard was dubbed the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. The pollsters applied the hypothesis (without any evidence) by adjusting the National Exit Poll (NEP) in order to have it match the recorded vote. | ||||||||||
168 | |||||||||||
169 | The adjusted NEP indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush voters and 37% (45.3 million) were returning Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died prior to the 2004 election and 1.0 million did not return to vote. Therefore, there could have been no more than 47 miliion returning Bush voters (38.4%). In other words, there had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS, which meant that an impossible 110% of living Bush 2000 voters had to turn out in 2004. | ||||||||||
170 | |||||||||||
171 | Returning Gore and Bush 2000 voter percentage of 2004 electorate (1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout). | ||||||||||
172 | |||||||||||
173 | We apply the following methods: | ||||||||||
174 | 1) Votes Cast: Gore 51.0 million recorded + 4.5 of 6 million uncounted: Gore by 50.0-47.3%. | ||||||||||
175 | Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0 / 38.2% | ||||||||||
176 | Kerry wins by 53.2-45.4% | ||||||||||
177 | |||||||||||
178 | 2) 2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate: Gore by 50.8-44.5%. | ||||||||||
179 | Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4 / 37.7% | ||||||||||
180 | Kerry wins by 53.6-45.1% | ||||||||||
181 | |||||||||||
182 | 3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3% | ||||||||||
183 | Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4 / 37.6% | ||||||||||
184 | Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7% | ||||||||||
185 | |||||||||||
186 | 4) 2004 National Exit Poll (adjusted to matched recorded vote) | ||||||||||
187 | Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37 / 43% (impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout) | ||||||||||
188 | Bush wins by 50.7-48.3% | ||||||||||
189 | |||||||||||
190 | |||||||||||
191 | The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote based on an impossible 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters. Therefore, the recorded vote must also have been impossible. | ||||||||||
192 | |||||||||||
193 | Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.5% and the National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%. Therefore it is likely that he won by 3-6 million; a 41.4/ 37.7% Gore/Bush returning voter mix is plausible and so Kerry won the True Vote by 53.6-45.1% - a 10.7 million landslide. | ||||||||||
194 | |||||||||||
195 | |||||||||||
196 | 2004 NatIonal Exit Poll (unadjusted) | ||||||||||
197 | Sample | Kerry | Bush | Other | |||||||
198 | 13,660 | 7,064 | 6,414 | 182 | |||||||
199 | 51.71% | 46.95% | 1.33% | ||||||||
200 | |||||||||||
201 | Final 2004 National Exit Poll | ||||||||||
202 | (Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004; forced to match recorded vote) | ||||||||||
203 | |||||||||||
204 | 2000 | Recorded (mil.) | Alive | 2004 Turnout | 2004 Recorded | Mix | Kerry | Bush | Other | ||
205 | DNV | - | - | - | 20,790 | 17% | 54% | 44% | 2% | ||
206 | Gore | 51.00 | 48,454 | 93% | 45,249 | 37% | 90% | 10% | 0% | ||
207 | Bush | 50.46 | 47,933 | 110% | 52,586 | 43% | 9% | 91% | 0% | ||
208 | Other | 3.96 | 3,798 | 97% | 3,669 | 3% | 64% | 14% | 22% | ||
209 | |||||||||||
210 | Total | 105.42 | 100,185 | - | 122,294 | 100% | 48.27% | 50.73% | 1.00% | ||
211 | 59,031 | 62,040 | 1,223 | ||||||||
212 | |||||||||||
213 | |||||||||||
214 | True Vote Model | ||||||||||
215 | (Plausible 2000 returning voter mix) | ||||||||||
216 | |||||||||||
217 | 2000 | 2004 Cast | Mix | Kerry | Bush | Other | |||||
218 | DNV | 22,381 | 17.80% | 57% | 41% | 2% | |||||
219 | Gore | 52,055 | 41.40% | 91% | 8% | 1% | |||||
220 | Bush | 47,403 | 37.70% | 10% | 90% | 0% | |||||
221 | Other | 3,898 | 3.10% | 64% | 17% | 19% | |||||
222 | |||||||||||
223 | Total | 125,737 | 100% | 53.57% | 45.07% | 1.36% | |||||
224 | 67,362 | 56,666 | 1,709 | ||||||||
225 | |||||||||||
226 | Bush Approval Ratings | ||||||||||
227 | For example, to adjust Kerry's 51.1 - 47.5% unadjusted exit poll margin to Bush's 50.7- 48.3% recorded margin in the Final National Exit Poll, | ||||||||||
228 | Bush's 50.3% unadjusted approval rating was increased to 53%. Corresponding vote shares were increased as well. | ||||||||||
229 | Bush had just 48% approval in the final pre-election polls. | ||||||||||
230 | With 48% approval applied to the NEP shares, Kerry had 53.7% (see the sensitivity analysis table below). | ||||||||||
231 | |||||||||||
232 | Party-ID | ||||||||||
233 | Dem/Rep Party-ID was changed from 38.5-35.1% to 37-37% to match the recorded vote. | ||||||||||
234 | There were near-perfect correlations between Bush's unadjusted state exit poll shares, approval ratings and Party-ID. | ||||||||||
235 | |||||||||||
236 | The 2006 midterms further illustrate how unadjusted exit polls are forced to match a bogus recorded vote. Democratic Party ID was reduced from 39.8% to 38%; GOP increased from 33.4% to 36%. Similar adjustments were made in 2004 and 2008. | ||||||||||
237 | |||||||||||
238 | 2006 Unadjusted National Exit Poll | ||||||||||
239 | 13,251 respondents | Sample | Democrat | Republican | Other | Margin | |||||
240 | http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/data_access/tag/congressional_elections.html#.T8yypbA7WAg | House | 13251 | 7470 | 5476 | 305 | |||||
241 | Total | 56.37% | 41.33% | 2.30% | 15.05% | ||||||
242 | |||||||||||
243 | Senate | 9783 | 5703 | 3678 | 402 | ||||||
244 | Total | 58.30% | 37.60% | 4.11% | 20.70% | ||||||
245 | |||||||||||
246 | Governor | 10552 | 5751 | 4181 | 620 | ||||||
247 | Total | 54.50% | 39.62% | 5.88% | 14.88% | ||||||
248 | |||||||||||
249 | Party ID | 12850 | 5110 | 4288 | 3452 | ||||||
250 | 39.77% | 33.37% | 26.86% | 6.40% | |||||||
251 | 2006 Adjusted National Exit Poll | ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | |||||||||
252 | Adjusted to match recorded vote | Male | 49% | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||||
253 | http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html | Female | 51% | 55% | 43% | 2% | |||||
254 | 100% | 52.55% | 44.96% | 2.49% | 7.59% | ||||||
255 | Party ID | ||||||||||
256 | Democrat | 38% | 93% | 7% | 0% | ||||||
257 | Republican | 36% | 8% | 91% | 1% | ||||||
258 | Other | 26% | 57% | 39% | 4% | ||||||
259 | 100% | 53.04% | 45.56% | 1.40% | 7.48% | ||||||
260 | |||||||||||
261 | |||||||||||
262 | The return voter mix was changed. | Voted 2004 | Adjusted Mix | Democrat | Republican | Other | Votes | ||||
263 | (6,361 respondents) | Kerry | 43% | 92% | 7% | 1% | 2,735 | ||||
264 | Bush | 49% | 15% | 83% | 2% | 3,117 | |||||
265 | Other | 4% | 66% | 23% | 11% | 254 | |||||
266 | Did Not Vote | 4% | 66% | 32% | 2% | 254 | |||||
267 | Total | 100% | 52.19% | 45.88% | 1.93% | 6361 | |||||
268 | |||||||||||
269 | How Voted 2004 | Exit Poll | Unadjusted Mix | ||||||||
270 | 45.48% | 48.43% | Kerry | 48.43% | 92% | 7% | 1% | 3,081 | |||
271 | 46.49% | 43.57% | Bush | 43.57% | 15% | 83% | 2% | 2,771 | |||
272 | 4.13% | 4.00% | Other | 4.00% | 66% | 23% | 11% | 254 | |||
273 | 3.90% | 4.00% | Did Not Vote | 4.00% | 66% | 32% | 2% | 254 | |||
274 | Total | 100% | 56.37% | 41.75% | 1.88% | 6361 | |||||
275 | |||||||||||
276 | |||||||||||
277 | |||||||||||
278 | |||||||||||
279 | 2004 National Exit Poll | Respondents | Kerry | Bush | Other | ||||||
280 | Unadjusted | 13,660 | 7,064 | 6,414 | 182 | ||||||
281 | Share | 51.71% | 46.95% | 1.33% | |||||||
282 | |||||||||||
283 | |||||||||||
284 | 2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll | Final National Exit Poll | |||||||||
285 | Party - ID | 13,660 respondents | (matched to recorded vote) | ||||||||
286 | |||||||||||
287 | Aggregate | Final | |||||||||
288 | Party-ID | Kerry | Bush | Other | Party-ID | Kerry | Bush | Other | |||
289 | Democrat | 38.76% | 91% | 9% | 0% | 37% | 90% | 10% | 0% | ||
290 | Republican | 35.12% | 8% | 92% | 0% | 37% | 7% | 93% | 0% | ||
291 | Independent | 26.12% | 52% | 43% | 5% | 26% | 47.62% | 48.55% | 3.83% | ||
292 | |||||||||||
293 | Share | 100% | 51.66% | 47.03% | 1.31% | 100% | 48.27% | 50.73% | 1.00% | ||
294 | Votes | 125,736 | 64,960 | 59,134 | 1,642 | 122,296 | 59,034 | 62,044 | 1,218 | ||
295 | |||||||||||
296 | |||||||||||
297 | Bush Approval | ||||||||||
298 | |||||||||||
299 | Actual | Kerry | Bush | Other | Unadjusted | Kerry | Bush | Other | |||
300 | Approve | 48.00% | 9% | 90% | 1% | 50.30% | 9% | 90% | 1% | ||
301 | Disapprove | 52.00% | 95% | 4% | 1% | 49.70% | 95% | 4% | 1% | ||
302 | |||||||||||
303 | Share | 100% | 53.72% | 45.28% | 1.00% | 100% | 51.74% | 47.26% | 1.00% | ||
304 | Votes | 125,736 | 67,545 | 56,933 | 1,257 | 122,296 | 63,278 | 57,795 | 1,223 | ||
305 | |||||||||||
306 | |||||||||||
307 | Sensitivity Analysis | ||||||||||
308 | Rep | Democratic Party-ID | Total Bush Approval | ||||||||
309 | Party-ID | 37.00% | 38.00% | 38.76% | Kerry Bush | 50.30% | 49.00% | 48.00% | |||
310 | Kerry share | Appoval | Kerry share | ||||||||
311 | 35.12% | 50.98% | 51.37% | 51.66% | 10% | 52.25% | 53.35% | 54.20% | |||
312 | 36% | 50.52% | 50.91% | 51.21% | 9% | 51.74% | 52.86% | 53.72% | |||
313 | 37% | 50.00% | 50.39% | 50.69% | 8% | 51.24% | 52.37% | 53.24% | |||
314 | |||||||||||
315 | |||||||||||
316 | |||||||||||
317 | Democratic Vote Shares | ||||||||||
318 | Unweighted | Weighted | |||||||||
319 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | Average | Average | |||
320 | State Unadjusted Exit Poll | 51.60 | 47.56 | 52.66 | 50.79 | 51.09 | 58.06 | 51.96 | 52.10 | ||
321 | National Unadjusted Exit Poll | 49.77 | 46.31 | 52.20 | 48.51 | 51.71 | 60.96 | 51.58 | 51.85 | ||
322 | State Exit Poll (WPE/IMS) | 49.30 | 45.70 | 50.20 | 49.40 | 51.90 | 58.00 | 50.75 | 50.99 | ||
323 | True Vote Model | 50.20 | 51.10 | 53.60 | 51.50 | 53.60 | 58.00 | 53.00 | 53.18 | ||
324 | National Recorded Vote | 45.64 | 43.01 | 49.18 | 48.38 | 48.28 | 52.87 | 47.89 | 48.05 | ||
325 | |||||||||||
326 | Votes Cast | 102.25 | 113.87 | 105.01 | 110.83 | 125.74 | 131.46 | 51.82 | 52.03 | ||
327 | Total | 689.15 | |||||||||
328 | |||||||||||
329 | |||||||||||
330 | |||||||||||
331 | |||||||||||
332 | Related Links | ||||||||||
333 | |||||||||||
334 | http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/EvaluationofEdisonMitofskyElectionSystem.pdf | ||||||||||
335 | |||||||||||
336 | US Count Votes analysis of the Ohio 2004 exit poll discrepancies | ||||||||||
337 | http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/OH/2004Election/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf | ||||||||||
338 | |||||||||||
339 | Exit Poll Response | ||||||||||
340 | http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/USCV_exit_poll_analysis.pdf | ||||||||||
341 | http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm | ||||||||||
342 | |||||||||||
343 | https://www.facebook.com/richard.charnin/posts/735042649871085 | ||||||||||
344 | |||||||||||
345 | |||||||||||
346 | |||||||||||
347 | REp | 11 | 26 | 16 | 12 | 22 | 36 | ||||
348 | Dem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
349 |
1 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | |||||||||
3 | Election | Recorded | EV | Forecast | EV | True Vote | EV | ||
4 | 2016 | Trump | 46.3 | 306 | 44.7 | 306 | 48.3 | 358 | |
5 | 2012 | Obama | 51.0 | 332 | 51.6 | 332 | 55.2 | 371 | |
6 | 2008 | Obama | 52.9 | 365 | 53.1 | 365 | 58.0 | 420 | |
7 | 2004 | Kerry | 48.3 | 256 | 51.8 | 337 | 53.6 | 364 | |
8 | 2000 | Gore | 48.4 | 267 | na | na | 50.7 | 404 | |
9 | |||||||||
10 | Model | ||||||||
11 | 2016 | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945 | |||||||
12 | 2008 | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=1 | |||||||
13 | 2012 | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=53 | |||||||
14 | 2008 | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=1 | |||||||
15 | 2004 | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=7 | |||||||
16 | 2000 | https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=4 |
1 | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | ||||||||||||
3 | ||||||||||||
4 | 2012 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote match) | |||||||||||
5 | 0.96 | 2012 | ||||||||||
6 | 2008 | Recorded | Cast | Recorded | Alive | Return | Turnout | Mix | Obama | Romney | Other | Turnout/alive |
7 | Obama | 52.93% | 70.24 | 69.50 | 66.72 | 62.72 | 62.05 | 48.1% | 90% | 7% | 3% | 93% |
8 | McCain | 45.65% | 60.19 | 59.95 | 57.55 | 54.1 | 55.83 | 43.2% | 7% | 93% | 0% | 97% |
9 | Other | 1.42% | 1.88 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.68 | 1.74 | 1.3% | 51% | 45% | 4% | 97% |
10 | Did Not Vote (new) | - | - | - | - | - | 9.51 | 7.4% | 55% | 42% | 3% | |
11 | ||||||||||||
12 | TOTAL | 100% | 132.31 | 131.31 | 124.75 | 118.51 | 129.13 | 100% | 51.01% | 47.27% | 1.72% | |
13 | Vote | 65.9 | 60.94 | 2.3 | ||||||||
14 | Share Margin | 3.74% | ||||||||||
15 | Vote Margin | 4.96 | ||||||||||
16 | ||||||||||||
17 | 2016 True Vote Model | 0.96 | 0.98 | 2016 | ||||||||
18 | 2012 | Vote share | Votes | Alive | Return | Turnout | Mix | Clinton | Trump | Other | Turnout/alive | |
19 | Obama | 51.03% | 65.83 | 63.20 | 61.93 | 55.61 | 40.83% | 87% | 10% | 3% | 88% | |
20 | Romney | 47.19% | 60.88 | 58.44 | 57.27 | 55.52 | 40.76% | 7% | 89% | 4% | 95% | |
21 | Other | 2.00% | 2.58 | 2.48 | 2.43 | 2.35 | 1.73% | 40% | 40% | 20% | 95% | |
22 | Did Not Vote (new) | - | - | - | - | 22.72 | 16.68% | 46% | 46% | 8% | ||
23 | ||||||||||||
24 | TOTAL | 100.00% | 129.00 | 124.11 | 121.63 | 136.20 | 100% | 46.74% | 48.72% | 4.54% | ||
25 | Vote | 63.66 | 66.36 | 6.18 | ||||||||
26 | Share Margin | 1.98% | ||||||||||
27 | Vote Margin | 2.70 |
1 | UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS VS. REPORTED VS. TRUE VOTE MODEL | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | ROW 77 | 28 STATE EXIT POLLS, REPORTED VOTES AND TRUE VOTE CALCULATIONS | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016 | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president | When decided | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | 413 | SUMMARY VOTE SHARES AND ELECTORAL VOTES | http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx | http://www.census.gov/library/publications/2013/demo/p20-568.html | NATIONAL | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/ | month | 26% | 40% | 48% | 8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Final CNN exit poll | Party-ID based on Gallup Survey | Unadjusted | Reported | Margin Discrepancies | Reported | Gallup | National | Share of Independents | before | 73% | 51% | 45% | -6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | Unadjusted Exit Poll | Matched to reported | True Vote Model 1 | True Vote Model 2 | Exit Poll | Vote | TVM1 | TVM2 | Exit Poll- | TVM1 - | TVM2 - | Party-ID | 32% | 28% | 40% | Unadj | Reported | When decided | Before Oct.1 | Chg | Last week | calc | 93.0% | 47.6% | 45.3% | -2.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Margin | Margin | Margin | Margin | Reported | Reported | Reported | Democrat | Repub | Ind | Democrat | Repub | Ind | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | After Oct.1 | Clinton | Trump | Margin | Clinton | Trump | Margin | Margin | Reported | 94.4% | 48.2% | 46.2% | -2.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | Total | 110,702 | 47.6% | 44.6% | 46.6% | 46.7% | 45.9% | 46.8% | 42.9% | 49.1% | -3.0% | 0.16% | 0.9% | 6.2% | -3.2% | 0.8% | 6.0% | 35.3% | 32.5% | 32.2% | 32.5% | 29.2% | 38.4% | 43.7% | 40.9% | 40.4% | 47.7% | 25.57% | 38.1% | 50.5% | 12.4% | 49.4% | 37.0% | -12.4% | 24.7% | 14.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | Wtd Avg | 49.6% | 43.6% | 49.3% | 45.2% | 48.1% | 45.6% | 44.3% | 48.1% | -6.0% | -4.1% | -2.6% | 3.8% | -1.9% | 1.5% | 7.9% | 37.5% | 31.8% | 30.8% | 33.6% | 28.4% | 38.0% | 43.8% | 41.5% | 42.0% | 47.1% | 25.55% | 40.7% | 50.8% | 10.0% | 52.3% | 44.1% | -8.2% | 18.2% | 13.5% | When decided | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | 1 | OH | 5,496 | 47.0% | 47.1% | 43.6% | 51.7% | 43.9% | 51.1% | 42.9% | 50.4% | 0.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | -8.0% | -0.9% | -0.6% | 34% | 37% | 29% | 32.4% | 33.4% | 34.2% | OH | 50% | 35% | 38% | 51% | OH | 25% | 37% | 54% | 17% | 47% | 50% | 3% | 14% | 15% | WA | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||
11 | 2 | NC | 4,742 | 48.6% | 46.5% | 46.2% | 49.8% | 47.3% | 48.1% | 45.7% | 46.6% | -2.1% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | -5.8% | -2.8% | -2.8% | 35% | 31% | 34% | 32.9% | 24.2% | 42.9% | NC | 47% | 43% | 39% | 53% | NC | 25% | 33% | 57% | 24% | 51% | 47% | -4% | 28% | 8% | month | 22% | 46% | 41% | -5% | ||||||||||||||||||
12 | 3 | NJ | 3,907 | 59.8% | 35.8% | 55.0% | 41.0% | 53.6% | 44.1% | 44.6% | 46.4% | -24.0% | -14.0% | -9.5% | 1.8% | -10.0% | 4.4% | 15.8% | 43% | 27% | 30% | 25.8% | 15.7% | 58.5% | NJ | 67% | 28% | 51% | 48% | NJ | 25% | 50% | 41% | -9% | 55% | 43% | -12% | 3% | 17% | before | 75% | 57% | 38% | -19% | ||||||||||||||||||
13 | 4 | PA | 5,950 | 50.5% | 46.1% | 47.9% | 48.6% | 48.9% | 46.7% | 47.8% | 45.8% | -4.4% | 0.7% | -2.3% | -2.0% | -5.1% | -3.0% | -2.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% | 39.1% | 29.2% | 31.7% | PA | 53% | 41% | 36% | 53% | PA | 24% | 43% | 49% | 6% | 47% | 51% | 4% | 2% | 15% | calc | 90.4% | 52.9% | 37.5% | -15.4% | ||||||||||||||||||
14 | 5 | MI | 4,799 | 46.8% | 46.8% | 47.3% | 47.5% | 45.5% | 48.3% | 45.1% | 47.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | -0.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 40% | 31% | 29% | 34.7% | 29.4% | 35.9% | MI | 32% | 53% | 36% | 52% | MI | 26% | 37% | 52% | 15% | 50% | 47% | -3% | 18% | 13% | Reported | 93.1% | 54.7% | 38.4% | -16.4% | ||||||||||||||||||
15 | 6 | MO | 2,809 | 42.8% | 51.2% | 38.1% | 56.8% | 37.2% | 57.4% | 41.5% | 51.7% | 8.4% | 18.6% | 20.2% | 10.2% | -10.2% | 1.6% | -8.5% | 34% | 39% | 27% | 30.8% | 35.0% | 34.2% | MO | 45% | 40% | 28% | 62% | MO | 29% | 36% | 52% | 16% | 38% | 59% | 21% | -5% | 15% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | 7 | IA | 1,566 | 44.1% | 48.0% | 41.7% | 51.1% | 42.7% | 49.8% | 40.6% | 49.6% | 3.9% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 9.0% | -5.5% | -2.3% | -0.4% | 31% | 34% | 35% | 29.6% | 29.0% | 41.4% | IA | 42% | 41% | 36% | 50% | IA | 26% | 35% | 53% | 18% | 47% | 47% | 0% | 18% | 14% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | 8 | FL | 9,420 | 47.7% | 46.4% | 47.8% | 49.0% | 49.3% | 45.9% | 43.6% | 48.9% | -1.3% | 1.2% | -3.4% | 5.4% | -2.5% | -4.6% | 4.2% | 32% | 33% | 35% | 37.0% | 31.7% | 31.3% | FL | 47% | 42% | 43% | 47% | FL | 26% | 43% | 50% | 7% | 49% | 49% | 0% | 7% | 11% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 9 | WI | 2,976 | 48.2% | 44.3% | 46.5% | 47.2% | 47.2% | 47.1% | 43.6% | 48.4% | -3.9% | 0.8% | -0.1% | 4.8% | -4.7% | -0.9% | 4.0% | 35% | 35% | 30% | 33.9% | 32.6% | 33.5% | WI | 47% | 34% | 43% | 46% | WI | 14% | 30% | 59% | 29% | 49% | 47% | -2% | 31% | 14% | IL | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||
19 | 10 | VA | 3,983 | 50.9% | 43.2% | 49.8% | 44.4% | 46.1% | 48.1% | 42.0% | 49.5% | -7.7% | -5.3% | 2.0% | 7.5% | -2.4% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 40% | 33% | 27% | 31.6% | 33.4% | 35.0% | VA | 47% | 45% | 43% | 48% | VA | 23% | 42% | 48% | 6% | 52% | 44% | -8% | 14% | 14% | month | 30% | 34% | 71% | 37% | match calc | |||||||||||||||||
20 | 11 | NV | 1,125 | 48.7% | 42.8% | 47.9% | 45.5% | 45.6% | 47.3% | 44.8% | 50.6% | -5.9% | -2.4% | 1.7% | 5.8% | -3.5% | 4.1% | 8.2% | 36% | 28% | 36% | 31.3% | 27.5% | 41.2% | NV | 39% | 43% | 37% | 50% | NV | 11% | 45% | 40% | -5% | 49% | 44% | -5% | 0% | 11% | before | 69% | 66% | 32% | -34% | ||||||||||||||||||
21 | 12 | NH | 742 | 49.4% | 44.2% | 47.0% | 46.6% | 46.2% | 46.9% | 39.8% | 51.5% | -5.2% | -0.4% | 0.7% | 11.8% | -4.8% | 1.0% | 12.1% | 28% | 28% | 44% | 21.5% | 23.9% | 54.6% | NH | 49% | 41% | 45% | 45% | NH | 29% | 42% | 50% | 8% | 51% | 45% | -6% | 14% | 20% | calc | 99.2% | 55.8% | 43.4% | -12.4% | ||||||||||||||||||
22 | 13 | MN | 2,945 | 45.7% | 45.8% | 46.4% | 44.9% | 46.8% | 45.2% | 44.3% | 46.7% | 0.1% | -1.5% | -1.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 3.9% | 37% | 35% | 28% | 34.7% | 31.0% | 34.3% | MN | 39% | 43% | 42% | 44% | MN | 29% | 33% | 51% | 18% | 51% | 41% | -10% | 28% | 20% | Reported | 94.6% | 55.8% | 38.8% | -17.1% | ||||||||||||||||||
23 | 14 | ME | 748 | 51.2% | 40.2% | 47.8% | 44.9% | 48.7% | 43.0% | 42.5% | 49.0% | -11.0% | -3.0% | -5.6% | 6.5% | -8.0% | -2.7% | 9.4% | 32% | 27% | 41% | 25.2% | 21.6% | 53.3% | ME | 54% | 28% | 46% | 41% | ME | 31% | 35% | 51% | 16% | 51% | 43% | -8% | 24% | 22% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | 15 | CO | 2,780 | 46.5% | 41.5% | 48.2% | 43.3% | 44.1% | 47.5% | 42.0% | 47.6% | -5.0% | -4.9% | 3.4% | 5.5% | -0.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 32% | 24% | 44% | 24.4% | 26.2% | 49.4% | CO | 39% | 41% | 42% | 45% | CO | 22% | 37% | 48% | 11% | 52% | 42% | -10% | 21% | 6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
25 | 16 | TX | 8,969 | 42.3% | 51.8% | 43.2% | 52.2% | 44.6% | 50.0% | 41.2% | 50.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 0.5% | -3.6% | 0.7% | 29% | 38% | 33% | 29.2% | 32.6% | 38.2% | TX | 36% | 51% | 38% | 52% | TX | 24% | 46% | 47% | 1% | 44% | 51% | 7% | -6% | 10% | CA | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||
26 | 17 | IL | 5,536 | 53.6% | 38.4% | 55.8% | 38.8% | 51.1% | 41.4% | 46.7% | 45.1% | -15.2% | -17.1% | -9.7% | -1.7% | 1.9% | 7.4% | 15.4% | 45% | 30% | 25% | 37.1% | 27.8% | 35.1% | IL | 37% | 39% | 44% | 43% | IL | 30% | 34% | 71% | 37% | 66% | 32% | -34% | 71% | 22% | month | 29% | 51% | 42% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||
27 | 18 | CA | 14,182 | 60.0% | 31.5% | 61.7% | 31.6% | 56.1% | 36.5% | 46.9% | 44.7% | -28.5% | -30.1% | -19.6% | -2.2% | 1.6% | 10.5% | 27.9% | 47% | 23% | 30% | 34.2% | 22.3% | 43.5% | CA | 46% | 33% | 50% | 37% | CA | 29% | 51% | 42% | -9% | 67% | 29% | -38% | 29% | 13% | before | 68% | 67% | 29% | -38% | ||||||||||||||||||
28 | 19 | NY | 7,456 | 55.8% | 39.8% | 59.6% | 36.7% | 58.2% | 37.3% | 51.4% | 44.0% | -16.0% | -22.8% | -20.9% | -7.4% | 6.8% | 1.9% | 15.4% | 48% | 26% | 26% | 39.0% | 19.0% | 42.0% | NY | 36% | 51% | 49% | 42% | NY | 26% | 38% | 60% | 22% | 67% | 31% | -36% | 58% | 17% | calc | 92.3% | 60.4% | 31.9% | -28.5% | ||||||||||||||||||
29 | 20 | GA | 4,115 | 46.8% | 48.2% | 45.6% | 50.8% | 44.7% | 51.9% | 42.4% | 53.2% | 1.4% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 10.8% | -3.7% | 2.1% | 5.7% | 34% | 36% | 30% | 30.8% | 34.2% | 35.0% | GA | 45% | 42% | 41% | 52% | GA | 20% | 47% | 55% | 8% | 45% | 53% | 8% | 0% | 10% | Reported | 93.3% | 61.7% | 31.6% | -30.1% | ||||||||||||||||||
30 | 21 | AZ | 2,573 | 46.8% | 48.2% | 45.1% | 48.7% | 44.1% | 49.1% | 38.9% | 50.6% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 11.7% | -2.1% | 1.4% | 8.2% | 28% | 32% | 40% | 22.8% | 27.4% | 49.8% | AZ | 49% | 45% | 44% | 47% | AZ | 25% | 40% | 48% | 8% | 48% | 48% | 0% | 8% | 9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | 22 | WA | 3,184 | 51.3% | 35.8% | 54.7% | 38.4% | 49.0% | 43.7% | 43.6% | 49.1% | -15.5% | -16.4% | -5.3% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 11.1% | 21.8% | 34% | 20% | 46% | 35.5% | 35.8% | 28.7% | WA | 41% | 37% | 48% | 40% | WA | 22% | 46% | 41% | -5% | 57% | 38% | -19% | 14% | 6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | 23 | UT | 1,131 | 32.4% | 41.8% | 27.5% | 45.5% | 27.8% | 45.8% | 31.9% | 59.5% | 9.4% | 18.1% | 17.9% | 27.6% | -8.7% | -0.1% | 9.5% | 20% | 45% | 35% | 20.5% | 46.9% | 32.6% | UT | 39% | 31% | 27% | 42% | UT | 44% | 17% | 39% | 22% | 36% | 52% | 16% | 6% | 20% | NY | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||
33 | 24 | SC | 2,103 | 42.8% | 50.3% | 40.7% | 54.9% | 46.1% | 48.1% | 41.1% | 50.3% | 7.5% | 14.3% | 2.0% | 9.2% | -6.8% | -12.3% | -5.0% | 27% | 46% | 27% | 34.2% | 35.0% | 30.8% | SC | 57% | 26% | 46% | 43% | SC | 26% | 39% | 50% | 11% | 42% | 56% | 14% | -3% | 16% | month | 26% | 38% | 60% | 22% | match calc | |||||||||||||||||
34 | 25 | KY | 1,924 | 35.0% | 61.5% | 32.7% | 62.5% | 34.0% | 59.9% | 36.5% | 54.5% | 26.5% | 29.8% | 25.8% | 18.0% | -3.3% | -4.0% | -11.8% | 38% | 44% | 18% | 40.0% | 28.0% | 32.0% | KY | 29% | 68% | 23% | 67% | KY | 28% | 27% | 63% | 36% | 31% | 67% | 36% | 0% | 17% | before | 74% | 67% | 31% | -36% | ||||||||||||||||||
35 | 26 | OR | 2,001 | 50.7% | 38.8% | 50.1% | 39.1% | 49.1% | 40.9% | 43.5% | 45.2% | -11.9% | -11.0% | -8.2% | 1.7% | -0.9% | 2.8% | 12.7% | 33% | 23% | 44% | 46.4% | 23.8% | 29.8% | OR | 43% | 40% | 43% | 41% | OR | 20% | 32% | 48% | 16% | 54% | 38% | -16% | 32% | 4% | calc | 98.1% | 59.6% | 38.5% | -21.0% | ||||||||||||||||||
36 | 27 | NM | 798 | 47.9% | 37.8% | 48.3% | 40.0% | 47.0% | 40.4% | 43.6% | 49.0% | -10.1% | -8.2% | -6.6% | 5.4% | -1.9% | 1.7% | 13.6% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 38.4% | 24.8% | 36.8% | NM | 36% | 35% | 37% | 42% | NM | 28% | 37% | 41% | 4% | 52% | 40% | -12% | 16% | 14% | Reported | 96.3% | 59.6% | 36.7% | -22.8% | ||||||||||||||||||
37 | 28 | IN | 2,741 | 39.6% | 53.9% | 37.9% | 56.8% | 39.4% | 48.6% | 43.7% | 49.4% | 14.3% | 18.9% | 9.2% | 5.7% | -4.6% | -9.7% | -13.2% | 34% | 39% | 27% | 35.8% | 35.0% | 29.2% | IN | 32% | 50% | 36% | 53% | IN | 29% | 34% | 53% | 19% | 35% | 61% | 26% | -7% | 21% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | Before | After | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | IA | 0% | 18% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | FL | 0% | 7% | OR | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
42 | 2016 Gallup Party-ID and 2016 NEP Vote shares | 2016 Gallup Party-ID and revised NEP Ind Vote shares | 2016 National Exit Poll | 2016 Pre-election | WI | -2% | 29% | month | 20% | 32% | 48% | 16% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
43 | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other | VA | -8% | 6% | before | 77% | 54% | 38% | -16% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
44 | Dem | 32% | 89% | 8% | 3% | Dem | 32% | 89% | 8% | 3% | Dem | 36% | 89% | 8% | 3% | Dem | 39.0% | 89% | 6% | 3.0% | NV | -5% | -5% | calc | 86.8% | 48.0% | 38.9% | -9.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
45 | Rep | 28% | 8% | 88% | 4% | Rep | 28% | 8% | 88% | 4% | Rep | 33% | 8% | 88% | 4% | Rep | 32.0% | 5% | 89% | 4.0% | NH | -6% | 8% | Reported | 89.2% | 50.1% | 39.1% | -11.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
46 | Ind | 40% | 42% | 46% | 12% | Ind | 40% | 40% | 50% | 10% | Ind | 31% | 42% | 46% | 12% | Ind | 29.0% | 33.8% | 43.6% | 12.0% | MN | -10% | 18% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
47 | Total | 100% | 47.5% | 45.6% | 6.9% | Total | 100% | 46.7% | 47.2% | 6.1% | Total | 100% | 47.7% | 46.2% | 6.1% | 4.49% | Total | 95.5% | 46.1% | 43.5% | 5.9% | ME | -8% | 16% | OH | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
48 | 0.5 | True Vote | 100.0% | 48.4% | 45.7% | 5.9% | CO | -10% | 11% | month | 25% | 37% | 54% | 17% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
49 | TX | 7% | 1% | before | 75% | 47% | 50% | 3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
50 | 2016 NEP Party-ID and Pre-electon Vote shares | 2016 Gallup Party-ID and Pre-election Vote shares | 2012 National Exit Poll Gallup | 2012 National Exit Poll | IL | -34% | 37% | calc | 95.5% | 44.5% | 51.0% | 6.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Pct | Obama | Romney | Other | Pct | Obama | Romney | Other | CA | -38% | -9% | Reported | 95.2% | 43.6% | 51.7% | 8.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | Dem | 36% | 89% | 6% | 2% | 1% | Dem | 32% | 89% | 6% | 2% | 1% | Dem | 35% | 92% | 8% | - | Dem | 38% | 92% | 8% | - | NY | -36% | 22% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | Rep | 33% | 5% | 89% | 3% | 1% | Rep | 28% | 5% | 89% | 3% | 1% | Rep | 30% | 7% | 93% | - | Rep | 32% | 7% | 93% | - | GA | 8% | 8% | NC | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Ind | 31% | 33.8% | 43.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% | Ind | 40% | 33.8% | 43.6% | 8.0% | 5.0% | Ind | 33% | 45% | 50% | 5% | Ind | 29% | 45% | 50% | 5% | AZ | 0% | 8% | month | 25% | 33% | 57% | 24% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | 4.36% | Total | 95.6% | 44.2% | 45.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 5.04% | Total | 95.0% | 43.4% | 44.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% | Total | 98% | 49.2% | 47.2% | 1.7% | Total | 99.0% | 50.3% | 47.3% | 1.5% | WA | -19% | -5% | before | 72% | 51% | 47% | -4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
56 | 0.5 | True Vote | 100.0% | 46.3% | 47.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.5 | True Vote | 100.0% | 45.9% | 46.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | UT | 16% | 22% | calc | 93.1% | 45.0% | 48.1% | 3.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | SC | 14% | 11% | Reported | 96.0% | 46.2% | 49.8% | 3.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | 2012 | Pct | Trump | Clinton | Other | Trump share | 28 EXIT POLLS | KY | 36% | 36% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
59 | In the True Vote tables, the Party-ID was derived from the Gallup National Survey (40I-32D-28R) | Obama | 51.1% | 19% | 75% | 6% | 9.7% | 20% | Unadjusted EP | Reported | True Vote | OR | -16% | 16% | NJ | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Unadjusted exit poll tables are based on the Clinton and Trump shares | Romney | 47.2% | 80% | 8% | 12% | 37.8% | 78% | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | Clinton | Trump | NM | -12% | 4% | month | 25% | 50% | 41% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | Final reported exit poll tables from CNN closely match the recorded vote. | Other | 1.7% | 48% | 46% | 6% | 0.8% | 2% | 54,509 | 47,761 | 54,330 | 49,598 | 48,626 | 52,531 | IN | 26% | 19% | before | 74% | 55% | 43% | -12% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | Vote shares are identical in all of the tables except for exit poll shares of independents | Total | 100% | 48.29% | 42.87% | 8.84% | 48.3% | 100% | 53.3% | 46.7% | 52.3% | 47.7% | 48.1% | 51.9% | calc | 95.3% | 53.2% | 42.1% | -11.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | Clinton and Trump shares of Independents were adjusted to match the exit poll result | http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/04/larry-sabato-20-trump-voters-former-obama-voters-video/ | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | Reported | 96.0% | 55.0% | 41.0% | -14.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | The Calc row is a check on the exit poll, reported and true vote. | 6,748 | margin | 4,732 | margin | 3,905 | margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
65 | Trump | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | Adjusted | Reported | 2-party | Discrep | True Vote | Discrep | PA | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
67 | 2-party | Clinton | Trump | Margin | 2-party | Clinton | Trump | Margin | Adj | 2-party | Clinton | Trump | Margin | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other | month | 24% | 43% | 49% | 6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | National | 128,223 | 65,431 | 62,792 | 2,639 | National | 128,223 | 65,431 | 62,792 | 2,639 | - | National | 128,223 | 61,210 | 67,013 | 5,803 | 3,164 | Dem | 32% | 74% | 20% | 6% | before | 75% | 47% | 51% | 4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.1% | 51.0% | 49.0% | 2.1% | - | 47.7% | 52.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | Rep | 28% | 8% | 88% | 4% | calc | 95.6% | 45.6% | 50.0% | 4.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | Ind | 40% | 40% | 48% | 12% | Reported | 96.4% | 47.9% | 48.6% | 0.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
71 | 28 Unadj | 102,270 | 54,509 | 47,761 | 6,748 | 28 Unadj | 102,270 | 54,330 | 49,598 | 4,732 | 2,016 | 28 Unadj | 102,270 | 48,626 | 52,531 | 3,905 | -827 | Total | 100% | 41.9% | 50.2% | 7.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
72 | 53.3% | 46.7% | 6.6% | 53.1% | 46.9% | 6.2% | 0.4% | 48.1% | 51.9% | 3.9% | -2.4% | MI | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
73 | month | 26% | 37% | 52% | 15% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
74 | Other 23 | 25,953 | 10,922 | 15,031 | -4,109 | Other 23 | 25,953 | 11,101 | 13,194 | -2,093 | -2,016 | Other 23 | 25,953 | 12,584 | 14,482 | 1,898 | 3,991 | before | 71% | 50% | 47% | -3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | 42.1% | 57.9% | -15.8% | 42.8% | 57.2% | -14.4% | -1.4% | 46.5% | 53.5% | 7.0% | 21.5% | calc | 92.0% | 45.1% | 46.9% | 1.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
76 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | 28 STATE EXIT POLLS, REPORTED VOTES AND TRUE VOTE CALCULATIONS | Reported | 94.8% | 47.3% | 47.5% | 0.2% | Trump | Margin | Trump | Margin chg | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
78 | MATCH UNADJUSTED EXIT POLL (ADJUST SHARES OF INDEPENDENTS) | REPORTED EXIT POLL (MATCH RECORDED VOTE) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
79 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | Party-ID | Input | Year | 2016 | Share of Undecided | 75% | AverageCalc | -6,275 | -4,217 | 4,578 | Rep-adj | True-Rep Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
81 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
82 | 1 | OH | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio#president | OH | Clinton | Trump | MO | Clinton | Trump | Margin | 2,115 | 8,705 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
83 | 2012 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | True Vote | Gallup | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | OH | Pct | clinton | trump | other | 2014 Census | 44.44% | 46.79% | month | 29% | 36% | 52% | 16% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
84 | 38% | 34% | Dem | 34% | 87% | 12% | 0% | 1% | Dem | 34% | 87% | 12% | 0% | 1% | Dem | 32.4% | 87% | 12% | 0% | 1% | white | 80% | 33% | 62% | 5% | 85.8% | before | 70% | 38% | 59% | 21% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
85 | 31% | 37% | Rep | 37% | 8% | 89% | 2% | 1% | Rep | 37% | 8% | 89% | 2% | 1% | Rep | 33.4% | 8% | 89% | 2% | 1% | black | 14% | 88% | 8% | 4% | calc | 93.4% | 37.0% | 56.4% | 19.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
86 | 31% | 29% | Ind | 29% | 50% | 35% | 8% | 7% | Ind | 29% | 38% | 51% | 8% | 3% | Ind | 34.2% | 38% | 51% | 8% | 3% | latino | 3% | 67% | 26% | 7% | Reported | 94.9% | 38.1% | 56.8% | 18.6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
87 | Match | 100% | 47.0% | 47.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | Calc | 100% | 43.6% | 51.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 43.9% | 51.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | asian | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 43.9% | 0.51056 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
88 | Unadj.EP | 100% | 47.0% | 47.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | Reported | 99.3% | 43.6% | 51.7% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 95.1% | 75% | 95.1% | 41.6% | 46.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | other | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | IA | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
89 | Votes | 5,496 | 2,583 | 2,589 | 176 | 148 | Votes | 5,496 | 2,394 | 2,841 | 174 | 46 | 4.9% | TVM | 100% | 42.9% | 50.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 100.0% | 40.7% | 51.5% | 4.8% | 2,583 | 2,589 | 2,394 | 2,841 | 2,356 | 2,769 | month | 26% | 35% | 53% | 18% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | Margin | 5 | 0.1% | Margin | 447 | 8.1% | Votes | 5,496 | 2,356 | 2,769 | 220 | 152 | before | 73% | 47% | 47% | 0% | 5 | 447 | 413 | 441 | -72 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
91 | Margin | 413 | 5.1% | calc | 91.5% | 43.4% | 48.1% | 4.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
92 | Reported | 92.9% | 41.7% | 51.1% | 9.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
93 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | 2 | NC | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/north-carolina/president | NC | NC | Gallup | FL | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
95 | 2012 | 2016 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | NC | clinton | trump | other | month | 26% | 43% | 50% | 7% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | 39% | 35% | Dem | 35% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 35% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 32.9% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | white | 70% | 32% | 63% | 5% | 73.30% | before | 73% | 49% | 49% | 0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | 33% | 31% | Rep | 31% | 4% | 94% | 2% | 0% | Rep | 31% | 4% | 94% | 2% | 0% | Rep | 24.2% | 4% | 94% | 2% | 0% | black | 20% | 89% | 8% | 3% | calc | 95.7% | 47.0% | 48.8% | 1.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
98 | 28% | 34% | Ind | 34% | 47% | 43% | 8% | 2% | Ind | 34% | 39% | 53% | 8% | 0% | Ind | 42.9% | 39% | 53% | 8% | 0% | latino | 5% | 57% | 40% | 3% | Reported | 96.8% | 47.8% | 49.0% | 1.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | Match | 100% | 48.7% | 46.6% | 3.7% | 1.0% | Calc | 100% | 46.0% | 50.0% | 3.7% | 0.4% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 47.3% | 48.1% | 4.2% | 0.3% | asian | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.47309 | 48.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | Unadjusted | 100% | 48.6% | 46.5% | 4.0% | 0.9% | Reported | 99.0% | 46.2% | 49.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 94.4% | 75% | 94.4% | 44.5% | 42.3% | 4.8% | 2.7% | other | 4% | 55% | 40% | 5% | WI | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
101 | Votes | 4,742 | 2,304 | 2,205 | 190 | 43 | Votes | 4,742 | 2,189 | 2,363 | 130 | 12 | 5.6% | TVM | 100.0% | 45.7% | 46.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 100.0% | 45.3% | 49.3% | 4.5% | 2,304 | 2,205 | 2,189 | 2,363 | 2,168 | 2,208 | month | 14% | 30% | 59% | 29% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
102 | Margin | -100 | -2.1% | Margin | 173 | 3.7% | Votes | 4,742 | 2,168 | 2,208 | 190 | 176 | before | 85% | 49% | 47% | -2% | -100 | 173 | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
103 | Margin | 40 | 0.8% | calc | 94.1% | 45.9% | 48.2% | 2.4% | 273 | -133 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
104 | Reported | 93.7% | 46.5% | 47.2% | 0.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
105 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
106 | 3 | NJ | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/new-jersey/president | NJ | NJ | Gallup | VA | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
107 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | NJ | clinton | trump | other | month | 23% | 42% | 48% | 6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
108 | 44% | 43% | Dem | 43% | 86% | 12% | 0% | 2% | Dem | 43% | 86% | 12% | 0% | 2% | Dem | 25.8% | 86% | 12% | 0% | 2% | white | 67% | 42% | 54% | 4% | 82.3% | before | 76% | 52% | 44% | -8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
109 | 26% | 27% | Rep | 27% | 10% | 82% | 7% | 1% | Rep | 27% | 10% | 82% | 7% | 1% | Rep | 15.7% | 10% | 82% | 7% | 1% | black | 14% | 89% | 9% | 2% | 17.7% | calc | 93.7% | 49.2% | 44.5% | -4.7% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
110 | 30% | 30% | Ind | 30% | 67% | 28% | 0% | 5% | Ind | 30% | 51% | 48% | 0% | 1% | Ind | 58.5% | 51% | 48% | 0% | 1% | latino | 14% | 76% | 23% | 1% | Reported | 94.2% | 49.8% | 44.4% | -5.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
111 | Match | 100% | 59.8% | 35.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | Calc | 100% | 55.0% | 41.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 53.6% | 44.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | asian | 4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 53.6% | 44.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
112 | Unadjusted | 100% | 59.8% | 35.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | Reported | 98.8% | 55.0% | 41.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 93.0% | 75% | 93.0% | 42.8% | 41.2% | 5.7% | 3.3% | other | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | NV | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
113 | Votes | 3,907 | 2,336 | 1,399 | 117 | 55 | Votes | 3,907 | 2,148 | 1,602 | 72 | 38 | 7.0% | TVM | 100.0% | 44.6% | 46.4% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 100.0% | 51.2% | 40.7% | 3.1% | 2,336 | 1,399 | 2,148 | 1,602 | 1,741 | 1,813 | month | 11% | 45% | 40% | -5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
114 | Margin | -938 | -24.0% | Margin | -546 | -14.0% | Votes | 3,907 | 1,741 | 1,813 | 221 | 131 | before | 88% | 49% | 44% | -5% | -938 | -546 | 72 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
115 | Margin | 72 | 1.8% | calc | 91.2% | 48.1% | 43.1% | -5.0% | 391 | 618 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
116 | Reported | 93.4% | 47.9% | 45.5% | -2.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
117 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
118 | 4 | PA | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/pennsylvania/president | PA | PA | Gallup | PA | NH | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
119 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | 89 | clinton | trump | other | month | 29% | 42% | 50% | 8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
120 | 45% | 41% | Dem | 41% | 90% | 6% | 1% | 3% | Dem | 41% | 90% | 6% | 1% | 3% | Dem | 39.1% | 90% | 6% | 1% | 3% | white | 81% | 40% | 56% | 4% | before | 71% | 51% | 45% | -6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
121 | 35% | 39% | Rep | 39% | 8% | 91% | 1% | 0% | Rep | 39% | 8% | 91% | 1% | 0% | Rep | 29.2% | 8% | 91% | 1% | 0% | black | 10% | 92% | 7% | 1% | calc | 94.8% | 48.4% | 46.5% | -1.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
122 | 20% | 20% | Ind | 20% | 53% | 41% | 5% | 1% | Ind | 20% | 36% | 53% | 5% | 6% | Ind | 31.7% | 36% | 56% | 5% | 3% | latino | 6% | 74% | 22% | 4% | Reported | 93.6% | 47.0% | 46.6% | -0.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
123 | Match | 100% | 50.6% | 46.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | Calc | 100% | 47.2% | 48.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 48.9% | 46.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | asian | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 48.9% | 46.7% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
124 | Unadjusted | 100% | 50.5% | 46.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | Reported | 100% | 47.9% | 48.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 95.3% | 75% | 95.3% | 46.6% | 42.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | other | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | MN | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
125 | Votes | 5,950 | 3,005 | 2,743 | 107 | 95 | Votes | 6,115 | 2,926 | 2,971 | 147 | 50 | 4.7% | TVM | 100.0% | 47.8% | 45.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 100.0% | 46.0% | 47.4% | 3.6% | 3004.75 | 2742.95 | 2,926 | 2,971 | 2,841 | 2,724 | month | 29% | 33% | 51% | 18% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
126 | Margin | -262 | -4.4% | Margin | 44 | 0.7% | Votes | 5,950 | 2,841 | 2,724 | 250 | 135 | before | 71% | 51% | 41% | -10% | -262 | 44 | -118 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
127 | Margin | -118 | -2.0% | calc | 89.7% | 45.8% | 43.9% | -1.9% | 306 | -162 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
128 | Reported | 91.4% | 46.4% | 44.9% | -1.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
129 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
130 | 5 | MI | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/michigan | MI | MI | Gallup | MI | ME | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
131 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | 96 | clinton | trump | johnson | stein | other | month | 31% | 35% | 51% | 16% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
132 | 40% | 40% | Dem | 40% | 88% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 40% | 88% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 34.7% | 88% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | white | 75% | 36% | 57% | 5% | 1% | 1% | before | 69% | 51% | 43% | -8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
133 | 30% | 31% | Rep | 31% | 7% | 90% | 2% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 31% | 7% | 90% | 2% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 29.4% | 7% | 90% | 2% | 0% | 1% | black | 15% | 92% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | calc | 91.5% | 46.0% | 45.5% | -0.6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
134 | 30% | 29% | Ind | 29% | 32% | 53% | 7% | 3% | 5% | Ind | 29% | 36% | 52% | 7% | 3% | 2% | Ind | 35.9% | 36% | 52% | 7% | 3% | 2% | latino | 5% | 59% | 38% | 2% | 2% | n/a | Reported | 92.7% | 47.8% | 44.9% | -3.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
135 | Match | 100% | 46.7% | 46.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 2% | Calc | 100% | 47.8% | 46.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | TVM1 | 100% | 45.5% | 48.3% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | asian | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 45.5% | 48.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
136 | Unadjusted | 100% | 46.8% | 46.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 3% | Reported | 100% | 47.3% | 47.5% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 75% | 96.0% | 44.1% | 44.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | other | 3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | CO | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
137 | Votes | 4,799 | 2,246 | 2,246 | 110 | 61 | 136 | Votes | 4,799 | 2,269 | 2,280 | 172 | 51 | 27 | 4.0% | TVM | 100% | 45.1% | 47.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 100.0% | 43.8% | 45.6% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2,246 | 2,246 | 2,269 | 2,280 | 2,163 | 2,257 | month | 22% | 37% | 48% | 11% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
138 | Margin | 0 | 0.0% | Margin | 11 | 0.2% | Votes | 4,799 | 2,163 | 2,257 | 213 | 117 | 49 | before | 75% | 52% | 42% | -10% | 0 | 11 | 94 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
139 | Margin | 94 | 2.0% | calc | 89.2% | 47.1% | 42.1% | -5.1% | 11 | 83 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
140 | Reported | 91.4% | 48.2% | 43.3% | -4.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
141 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
142 | 6 | MO | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/missouri/president | MO | MO | Gallup | MO | TX | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
143 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | 87 | clinton | trump | Other' | month | 24% | 46% | 47% | 1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
144 | 37% | 34% | Dem | 34% | 84% | 13% | 1% | 2% | Dem | 34% | 84% | 13% | 1% | 2% | Dem | 30.8% | 84% | 13% | 1% | 2% | white | 79% | 28% | 66% | 6% | before | 74% | 44% | 51% | 7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
145 | 35% | 39% | Rep | 39% | 5% | 92% | 2% | 1% | Rep | 39% | 5% | 92% | 2% | 1% | Rep | 35.0% | 5% | 92% | 2% | 1% | black | 14% | 90% | 8% | 2% | calc | 92.6% | 43.6% | 49.0% | 5.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
146 | 28% | 27% | Ind | 27% | 45% | 40% | 8% | 7% | Ind | 27% | 28% | 62% | 8% | 2% | Ind | 34.2% | 28% | 62% | 8% | 2% | latino | 4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | Reported | 95.5% | 43.2% | 52.2% | 9.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
147 | Match | 100% | 42.7% | 51.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | Calc | 100.0% | 38.1% | 57.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 37.2% | 57.4% | 3.7% | 1.7% | asian | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 37.2% | 57.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
148 | Unadjusted | 100% | 42.8% | 51.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | Reported | 99.3% | 38.1% | 56.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 75% | 95.1% | 40.3% | 48.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | other | 3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | GA | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
149 | Votes | 2,809 | 1,202 | 1,438 | 93 | 76 | Votes | 2,809 | 1,071 | 1,595 | 97 | 25 | 4.9% | TVM | 100% | 41.5% | 51.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 101.0% | 34.7% | 53.3% | 5.0% | 1,202 | 1,438 | 1,071 | 1,595 | 1,167 | 1,452 | month | 20% | 47% | 55% | 8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
150 | Margin | 236 | 8.4% | Margin | 523 | 18.6% | Votes | 2,809 | 1,167 | 1,452 | 124 | 67 | before | 79% | 45% | 53% | 8% | 236 | 523 | 285 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
151 | Margin | 285 | 10.2% | calc | 97.8% | 45.0% | 52.9% | 7.9% | 288 | -238 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
152 | Reported | 96.4% | 45.6% | 50.8% | 5.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
153 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
154 | 7 | IA | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/iowa | IA | IA | Gallup | IA | UT | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
155 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | True Vote | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | 96 | clinton | trump | stein | johnson | Other | month | 44% | 17% | 39% | 22% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
156 | 33% | 31% | Dem | 31% | 88% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 31% | 88% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 29.6% | 88% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 0% | white | 90% | 40% | 54% | 1% | 3% | 2% | before | 54% | 36% | 52% | 16% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
157 | 33% | 34% | Rep | 34% | 6% | 90% | 3% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 34% | 6% | 90% | 3% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 29.0% | 6% | 90% | 3% | 0% | 1% | black | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | calc | 73.0% | 27.5% | 45.5% | 18.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
158 | 34% | 35% | Ind | 35% | 42% | 41% | 5% | 3% | 9% | Ind | 35% | 36% | 50% | 7% | 1% | 6% | Ind | 41.4% | 36% | 50% | 7% | 1% | 6% | latino | 5% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 5% | n/a | Reported | 73.0% | 27.5% | 45.5% | 18.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
159 | Match | 100% | 44.0% | 48.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 3.5% | Calc | 100% | 41.9% | 51.2% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 2.4% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 42.7% | 49.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 2.8% | asian | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 42.7% | 49.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
160 | Unadjusted | 100% | 44.1% | 48.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 4.4% | Reported | 100% | 41.7% | 51.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 95.2% | 75% | 95.2% | 39.4% | 46.1% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | other | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | SC | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
161 | Votes | 1,566 | 691 | 752 | 28 | 27 | 69 | Votes | 1,566 | 654 | 801 | 59 | 11 | 41 | 4.8% | TVM | 100% | 40.6% | 49.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 100.0% | 39.2% | 49.9% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 691 | 752 | 654 | 801 | 636 | 777 | month | 26% | 39% | 50% | 11% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
162 | Margin | 61 | 3.9% | Margin | 147 | 9.4% | Votes | 1,566 | 636 | 777 | 82 | 47 | 23 | before | 74% | 42% | 56% | 14% | 61 | 147 | 141 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
163 | Margin | 141 | 7.1% | calc | 95.7% | 41.2% | 54.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
164 | Reported | 95.6% | 40.7% | 54.9% | 14.3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
165 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
166 | 8 | FL | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/florida/president | FL | FL | Gallup | FL | KY | Clinton | Trump | Margin | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
167 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | clinton | trump | other | month | 28% | 27% | 63% | 36% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
168 | 35% | 32% | Dem | 32% | 90% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 32% | 90% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 37.0% | 90% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 1% | white | 62% | 32% | 64% | 4% | before | 71% | 31% | 67% | 36% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
169 | 33% | 33% | Rep | 33% | 8% | 89% | 1% | 1% | 1% | Rep | 33% | 8% | 89% | 1% | 1% | 1% | Rep | 31.7% | 8% | 89% | 1% | 1% | 1% | black | 14% | 84% | 8% | 8% | calc | 94.8% | 29.6% | 65.2% | 35.6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
170 | 33% | 35% | Ind | 35% | 47% | 42% | 5% | 2% | 4% | Ind | 35% | 43% | 47% | 5% | 2% | 3% | Ind | 31.3% | 43% | 47% | 5% | 2% | 3% | latino | 18% | 62% | 35% | 3% | Reported | 95.2% | 32.7% | 62.5% | 29.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
171 | Match | 100% | 47.9% | 46.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | Calc | 100% | 46.5% | 48.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2% | TVM1 | 100% | 49.3% | 45.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | asian | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 49.3% | 45.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
172 | Unadjusted | 100% | 47.7% | 46.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.6% | Reported | 100% | 47.8% | 49.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 75% | 94.5% | 42.2% | 44.8% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | other | 4% | 58% | 36% | 6% | NM | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
173 | Votes | 9,420 | 4,493 | 4,371 | 188 | 122 | 245 | Votes | 9,420 | 4,505 | 4,618 | 207 | 64 | 26 | 5.5% | TVM | 100% | 43.6% | 48.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 100.0% | 45.1% | 48.5% | 4.4% | 4,493 | 4,371 | 4,505 | 4,618 | 4,105 | 4,609 | month | 28% | 37% | 41% | 4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
174 | Margin | -122 | -1.3% | Margin | 113 | 1.2% | Votes | 9,420 | 4,105 | 4,609 | 452 | 254 | 153 | before | 70% | 52% | 40% | -12% | -122 | 113 | 504 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
175 | Margin | 504 | 5.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
176 | calc | 86.2% | 46.8% | 39.5% | -7.3% | 235 | 391 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
177 | Reported | 88.3% | 48.3% | 40.0% | -8.2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
178 | 9 | WI | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/wisconsin | WI | WI | Gallup | WI | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
179 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | clinton | trump | other | IN | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
180 | 37% | 35% | Dem | 35% | 91% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 35% | 91% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 33.9% | 91% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | white | 86% | 42% | 53% | 5% | month | 29% | 34% | 53% | 19% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
181 | 32% | 35% | Rep | 35% | 6% | 90% | 3% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 35% | 6% | 90% | 3% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 32.6% | 6% | 90% | 3% | 0% | 1% | black | 7% | 92% | 6% | 2% | before | 71% | 35% | 61% | 26% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
182 | 31% | 30% | Ind | 30% | 47% | 34% | 6% | 2% | 11% | Ind | 30% | 43% | 46% | 6% | 2% | 3% | Ind | 33.5% | 43% | 46% | 6% | 2% | 3% | latino | 4% | 63% | 34% | 3% | calc | 93.4% | 34.7% | 58.7% | 24.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
183 | Match | 100% | 48.1% | 44.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 3.7% | Calc | 100% | 46.9% | 47.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | TVM1 | 100% | 47.2% | 47.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | asian | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 47.2% | 47.1% | Reported | 94.7% | 37.9% | 56.8% | 18.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
184 | Unadjusted | 100% | 48.2% | 44.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 4.2% | Reported | 100% | 46.5% | 47.2% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 75% | 96.5% | 42.7% | 45.7% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | other | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
185 | Votes | 2,976 | 1,435 | 1,318 | 60 | 39 | 125 | Votes | 2,976 | 1,383 | 1,405 | 107 | 31 | 51 | 3.5% | TVM | 100.0% | 43.6% | 48.4% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 100.0% | 45.1% | 47.4% | 4.6% | 1,435 | 1,318 | 1,383 | 1,405 | 1,298 | 1,440 | AZ | Clinton | Trump | Margin | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
186 | Margin | -116 | -3.9% | Margin | 23 | 0.8% | Votes | 2,976 | 1,298 | 1,440 | 129 | 70 | 40 | month | 25% | 40% | 48% | 8% | -116 | 23 | 141 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
187 | Margin | 141 | 2.99% | before | 75% | 48% | 48% | 0% | 139 | 119 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
188 | calc | 94.0% | 46.0% | 48.0% | 2.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
189 | Reported | 93.8% | 45.1% | 48.7% | 3.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
190 | 10 | VA | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia | VA | VA | Gallup | VA | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
191 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | clinton | trump | other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
192 | 39% | 40% | Dem | 40% | 92% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1% | Dem | 40% | 92% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1% | Dem | 31.6% | 92% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1% | white | 67% | 35% | 59% | 6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
193 | 32% | 33% | Rep | 33% | 6% | 88% | 3% | 0% | 3% | Rep | 33% | 6% | 88% | 3% | 0% | 3% | Rep | 33.4% | 6% | 88% | 3% | 0% | 3% | black | 21% | 88% | 9% | 3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
194 | 29% | 27% | Ind | 27% | 47% | 45% | 6% | 2% | 0% | Ind | 27% | 43% | 48% | 6% | 2% | 1% | Ind | 35.0% | 43% | 48% | 6% | 2% | 1% | latino | 6% | 65% | 30% | 5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
195 | Match | 100% | 51.5% | 43.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 1% | Calc | 100% | 50.4% | 44.4% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 1.7% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 46.1% | 48.1% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 1.7% | asian | 3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 46.1% | 48.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
196 | Unadjusted | 100% | 50.9% | 43.2% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 2% | Reported | 100% | 49.8% | 44.4% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 75% | 96.7% | 41.2% | 47.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | other | 3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
197 | Votes | 3,983 | 2,027 | 1,721 | 147 | 22 | 66 | Votes | 3,983 | 1,981 | 1,769 | 118 | 28 | 86 | 3.3% | TVM | 100.0% | 42.0% | 49.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 100.0% | 45.8% | 43.2% | 5.0% | 2,027 | 1,721 | 1,981 | 1,769 | 1,673 | 1,971 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
198 | Margin | -307 | -7.7% | Margin | -212 | -5.3% | Votes | 3,983 | 1,673 | 1,971 | 177 | 96 | 66 | -307 | -212 | 297 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
199 | Margin | 297 | 7.5% | 95 | 509 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
201 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
202 | 11 | NV | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/nevada/president | NV | NV | Gallup | NV | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
203 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Other | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
204 | 38% | 36% | Dem | 36% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 36% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 31.3% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | white | 62% | 38% | 56% | 3% | 2% | 1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
205 | 28% | 28% | Rep | 28% | 8% | 88% | 2% | 2% | Rep | 28% | 8% | 88% | 2% | 2% | Rep | 27.5% | 8% | 88% | 2% | 2% | black | 9% | 81% | 12% | 1% | 5% | 1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
206 | 34% | 36% | Ind | 36% | 39% | 43% | 7% | 11% | Ind | 36% | 37% | 50% | 7% | 6% | Ind | 41.2% | 37% | 50% | 6% | 7% | latino | 18% | 60% | 29% | 5% | 3% | 3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
207 | Match | 100% | 48.7% | 43.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | Calc | 100% | 48.0% | 45.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 45.6% | 47.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | asian | 6% | 62% | 36% | 1% | 1% | n/a | 45.6% | 47.3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
208 | Unadjusted | 100% | 48.7% | 42.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | Reported | 100% | 47.9% | 45.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 75% | 91.8% | 42.7% | 44.4% | 4.7% | other | 4% | 46% | 45% | 3% | 4% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
209 | Votes | 1,125 | 548 | 482 | 42 | 54 | Votes | 1,125 | 539 | 512 | 37 | 37 | 8.2% | TVM | 100.0% | 44.8% | 50.6% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 99.0% | 47.2% | 45.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 548 | 482 | 539 | 512 | 504 | 569 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
210 | Margin | -66 | -5.9% | Margin | -27 | -2.4% | Votes | 1,125 | 504 | 569 | 53 | 0 | -66 | -27 | 65 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
211 | Margin | 65 | 1.7% | 39 | 92 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
212 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
213 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
214 | 12 | NH | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/new-hampshire | NH | NH | Gallup | NH | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
215 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
216 | 30% | 28% | Dem | 28% | 93% | 5% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 28% | 93% | 5% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 21.5% | 93% | 5% | 1% | 1% | white | 92% | 48% | 48% | 4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
217 | 27% | 28% | Rep | 28% | 7% | 89% | 3% | 1% | Rep | 28% | 7% | 89% | 3% | 1% | Rep | 23.9% | 7% | 89% | 3% | 1% | black | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
218 | 43% | 44% | Ind | 44% | 49% | 41% | 7% | 3% | Ind | 44% | 45% | 45% | 7% | 3% | Ind | 54.6% | 45% | 45% | 7% | 3% | latino | 4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
219 | Match | 100% | 49.6% | 44.4% | 4.2% | 2% | Calc | 100% | 47.8% | 46.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 46.2% | 46.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% | asian | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 46.2% | 46.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
220 | Unadjusted | 100% | 49.4% | 44.2% | 3.7% | 3% | Reported | 100% | 47.0% | 46.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 75% | 93.4% | 38.1% | 46.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | other | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
221 | Votes | 742 | 366 | 328 | 27 | 20 | Votes | 742 | 349 | 346 | 31 | 6 | 6.6% | TVM | 100.0% | 39.8% | 51.5% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 100.0% | 44.2% | 44.2% | 3.7% | 366 | 328 | 349 | 346 | 295 | 382 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
222 | Margin | -39 | -5.2% | Margin | -3 | -0.4% | Votes | 742 | 295 | 382 | 41 | 24 | -39 | -3 | 87 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
223 | Margin | 87 | 0.7% | 36 | 90 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
224 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
225 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
226 | 13 | MN | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/minnesota/president | MN | MN | Gallup | MN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
227 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
228 | 39% | 37% | Dem | 37% | 87% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 37% | 87% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 34.7% | 87% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | White | 87% | 43% | 50% | 7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
229 | 31% | 35% | Rep | 35% | 7% | 86% | 3% | 1% | 3% | Rep | 35% | 7% | 86% | 3% | 1% | 3% | Rep | 31.0% | 7% | 86% | 3% | 1% | 3% | Non-white | 13% | 71% | 22% | 7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
230 | 30% | 28% | Ind | 28% | 39% | 43% | 7% | 3% | 8% | Ind | 28% | 42% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 4% | Ind | 34.3% | 42% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
231 | Match | 100% | 45.6% | 45.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 3% | Calc | 100% | 46.4% | 46.1% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 46.8% | 45.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 46.8% | 45.2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
232 | Unadjusted | 100% | 45.7% | 45.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 3% | Reported | 100% | 46.4% | 44.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 75% | 97.4% | 43.6% | 44.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
233 | Votes | 2,945 | 1,346 | 1,349 | 109 | 46 | 95 | Votes | 2,945 | 1,368 | 1,323 | 113 | 37 | 104 | 2.6% | TVM | 100.0% | 44.3% | 46.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 100.0% | 46.6% | 46.4% | 7.0% | 1,346 | 1,349 | 1,368 | 1,323 | 1,304 | 1,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
234 | Margin | 3 | 0.1% | Margin | -45 | -1.5% | Votes | 2,945 | 1,304 | 1,375 | 129 | 70 | 67 | 3 | -45 | 71 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
235 | Margin | 71 | 2.4% | -48 | 116 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
236 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
237 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
238 | 14 | ME | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/maine#president | ME | ME | Gallup | ME | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
239 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
240 | 32% | 31% | Dem | 31% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 32% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 25.2% | 90% | 8% | 1% | 1% | White | 93% | 47% | 46% | 5% | 2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
241 | 27% | 30% | Rep | 30% | 7% | 89% | 4% | 0% | 0% | Rep | 27% | 7% | 89% | 4% | 0% | Rep | 21.6% | 7% | 89% | 4% | 0% | Non-white | 7% | 56% | 33% | 10% | 2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
242 | 41% | 39% | Ind | 39% | 54% | 28% | 9% | 4% | 5% | Ind | 41% | 46% | 41% | 9% | 4% | Ind | 53.3% | 46% | 41% | 9% | 4% | 100.0% | 47.6% | 45.1% | 5.4% | 2.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
243 | Match | 100% | 51.1% | 40.1% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 2% | Calc | 100% | 49.6% | 43.4% | 5.1% | 2.0% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 48.7% | 43.0% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 48.7% | 43.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
244 | Unadjusted | 100% | 51.2% | 40.2% | 3.7% | 2% | 3% | Reported | 100% | 47.8% | 44.9% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 75% | 93.5% | 40.9% | 44.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
245 | Votes | 748 | 383 | 301 | 28 | 14 | 22 | Votes | 748 | 358 | 336 | 38 | 14 | 6.5% | TVM | 100.0% | 42.5% | 49.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 383 | 301 | 358 | 336 | 318 | 366 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
246 | Margin | -82 | -11.0% | Margin | -22 | -3.0% | Votes | 748 | 318 | 366 | 40 | 23 | -82 | -22 | 49 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
247 | Margin | 49 | -5.6% | 60 | 71 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
248 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
249 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
250 | 15 | CO | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/colorado | CO | CO | Gallup | CO | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
251 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
252 | 34% | 32% | Dem | 32% | 87% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 3% | Dem | 32% | 87% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 3% | Dem | 24.4% | 87% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 3% | white | 62% | 38% | 56% | 3% | 2% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
253 | 29% | 24% | Rep | 24% | 8% | 88% | 3% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 24% | 8% | 88% | 3% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 26.2% | 8% | 88% | 3% | 0% | 1% | black | 9% | 81% | 12% | 1% | 5% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
254 | 37% | 44% | Ind | 44% | 39% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 9% | Ind | 44% | 42% | 45% | 9% | 2% | 2% | Ind | 49.5% | 42% | 45% | 9% | 2% | 2% | latino | 18% | 60% | 29% | 5% | 3% | 3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
255 | Match | 100% | 46.9% | 42.0% | 5.0% | 0.9% | 5% | Calc | 100% | 48.2% | 43.8% | 5.0% | 0.9% | 2.1% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 44.1% | 47.5% | 5.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | asian | 6% | 62% | 36% | 1% | 1% | n/a | 44.1% | 47.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
256 | Unadjusted | 100% | 46.5% | 41.5% | 4.9% | 0.90% | 6% | Reported | 100% | 48.2% | 43.3% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 75% | 95.4% | 40.9% | 44.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | other | 4% | 46% | 45% | 3% | 4% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
257 | Votes | 2,780 | 1,293 | 1,154 | 136 | 25 | 172 | Votes | 2,780 | 1,339 | 1,202 | 144 | 38 | 56 | 4.6% | TVM | 100.0% | 42.0% | 47.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 99.0% | 47.2% | 45.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1,293 | 1,154 | 1,339 | 1,202 | 1,168 | 1,322 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
258 | Margin | -139 | -5.0% | Margin | -136 | -4.9% | Votes | 2,780 | 1,168 | 1,322 | 150 | 87 | 52 | -139 | -136 | 154 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
259 | Margin | 154 | 3.2% | 3 | 291 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
260 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
261 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
262 | 16 | TX | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/texas | TX | TX | Gallup | TX | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
263 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
264 | Dem | 29% | 93% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 29% | 93% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0.0% | Dem | 29.2% | 93% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 0.0% | white | 57% | 26% | 69% | 5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
265 | Rep | 38% | 9% | 88% | 2% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 38% | 9% | 88% | 2% | 0% | 1.0% | Rep | 32.6% | 9% | 88% | 2% | 0% | 1.0% | black | 11% | 84% | 11% | 5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
266 | Ind | 33% | 36% | 51% | 7% | 2% | 4% | Ind | 33% | 38% | 52% | 7% | 2% | 1.0% | Ind | 38.2% | 38% | 52% | 7% | 2% | 1.0% | latino | 24% | 61% | 34% | 5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
267 | Match | 100% | 42.3% | 51.7% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 2% | Calc | 100% | 42.9% | 52.1% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 44.6% | 50.0% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | asian | 5% | 72% | 26% | 2% | 44.6% | 50.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
268 | Unadjusted | 100% | 42.3% | 51.8% | 4.9% | 0.90% | 0% | Reported | 100% | 43.2% | 52.2% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 75% | 95.5% | 40.1% | 47.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | other | 3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
269 | Votes | 8,969 | 3,794 | 4,646 | 439 | 81 | 9.0 | Votes | 8,969 | 3,878 | 4,685 | 283 | 72 | 51 | 4.5% | TVM | 100.0% | 41.2% | 50.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 100.0% | 42.3% | 50.0% | 4.7% | 3,794 | 4,646 | 3,878 | 4,685 | 3,696 | 4,569 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
270 | Margin | 852 | 9.5% | Margin | 807 | 9.0% | Votes | 8,969 | 3,696 | 4,569 | 414 | 227 | 64 | 852 | 807 | 873 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
271 | Margin | 873 | 7.5% | -45 | 66 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
272 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
273 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
274 | 17 | IL | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/illinois/president | IL | IL | Gallup | IL | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
275 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
276 | 44% | 45% | Dem | 45% | 93% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% | Dem | 45% | 93% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% | Dem | 37.1% | 93% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% | White | 68% | 41% | 52% | 5% | 2% | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
277 | 27% | 30% | Rep | 30% | 8% | 88% | 3% | 1% | 0% | Rep | 30% | 8% | 88% | 3% | 1% | 0% | Rep | 27.8% | 8% | 88% | 3% | 1% | 0% | Non-white | 32% | 84% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
278 | 28% | 25% | Ind | 25% | 37% | 39% | 9% | 4% | 11% | Ind | 25% | 44% | 43% | 9% | 4% | 0% | Ind | 35.1% | 41% | 43% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 100.0% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
279 | Match | 100% | 53.5% | 38.4% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 3% | Calc | 100% | 55.3% | 39.4% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | TVM1 | 100.0% | 51.1% | 41.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 51.1% | 41.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
280 | Unadjusted | 100% | 53.6% | 38.4% | 4.9% | 0.90% | 2% | Reported | 100% | 55.8% | 38.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 75% | 96.4% | 45.8% | 42.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
281 | Votes | 5,536 | 2,968 | 2,126 | 271 | 50 | 122 | Votes | 5,536 | 3,091 | 2,146 | 210 | 77 | 13 | 3.6% | TVM | 100.0% | 46.7% | 45.1% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2,968 | 2,126 | 3,091 | 2,146 | 2,587 | 2,495 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
282 | Margin | -842 | -15.2% | Margin | -945 | -17.1% | Votes | 5,536 | 2,587 | 2,495 | 242 | 133 | 78 | -842 | -945 | -92 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
283 | Margin | -92 | -3.5% | -103 | 853 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
284 | 5,536 | 2,830 | 2,294 | 242 | 93 | 78 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
285 | TVM1 | Margin | -536 | 9.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
286 | 18 | CA | http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/california | CA | CA | Gallup | CA | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
287 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | 13228 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
288 | 44% | 47% | Dem | 47% | 92% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 47% | 92% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | Dem | 34.2% | 92% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | White | 48% | 50% | 45.0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 56.70% | 48% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
289 | 27% | 23% | Rep | 23% | 13% | 84% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Rep | 23% | 13% | 84% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Rep | 22.3% | 13% | 84% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Black | 6% | 88% | 9.0% | 1% | 3% | n/a | 8% | 6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
290 | 29% | 30% | Ind | 30% | 46% | 33% | 7% | 5% | 9% | Ind | 30% | 50% | 37% | 7% | 5% | 1% | Ind | 43.5% | 50% | 37% | 7% | 5% | 1% | Latino | 31% | 71% | 24.0% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 24% | 31% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
291 | Match | 100% | 60.0% | 31.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3% | Calc | 100% | 61.2% | 32.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | TVM1 | 100% | 56.1% | 36.5% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | Asian | 12% | 70% | 17% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 1.0% | 10.3% | 12% | 56.1% | 36.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
292 | Unadjusted | 100% | 60.0% | 31.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 5% | Reported | 100% | 61.7% | 31.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 75% | 14,182 | 7,957.7 | 5,181.5 | 543.6 | 388.6 | 110.2 | Other | 3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
293 | Votes | 14,182 | 8,509 | 4,467 | 284 | 184 | 737 | Votes | 14,182 | 8,754 | 4,484 | 479 | 279 | 187 | 4.9% | Margin | -2,776 | 19.6% | 100.0% | 59.7% | 31.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 8,509 | 4,467 | 8,754 | 4,484 | 6,657 | 6,341 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
294 | Margin | -4,042 | -28.5% | Margin | -4,270 | -30.1% | -4,042 | -4,270 | -316 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
295 | Votes | 14,182 | 6,657 | 6,341 | 685 | 389 | 110 | 95.1% | 45.7% | 41.0% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | -228 | 3,954 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
296 | TVM1 | Margin | -316 | -4.7% | TVM | 100.0% | 46.9% | 44.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
297 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
298 | 19 | NY | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/new-york | NY | NY | Gallup | NY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
299 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Stein | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Stein | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Stein | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
300 | 50% | 48% | Dem | 48% | 92% | 7% | 1% | Dem | 48% | 92% | 7% | 1% | Dem | 39% | 92% | 7% | 1% | white | 65% | 45% | 51% | 4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
301 | 27% | 26% | Rep | 26% | 9% | 89% | 2% | Rep | 26% | 9% | 89% | 2% | Rep | 19% | 9% | 89% | 2% | black | 21% | 92% | 6% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
302 | 23% | 26% | Ind | 26% | 36% | 51% | 13% | Ind | 26% | 49% | 42% | 9% | Ind | 42% | 49% | 42% | 9% | latino | 9% | 74% | 23% | 3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
303 | Match | 100% | 55.9% | 39.8% | 4.4% | Calc | 100% | 59.2% | 37.4% | 3.3% | TVM1 | 100% | 58.2% | 37.3% | 4.6% | asian | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | 58.2% | 37.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
304 | Unadjusted | 100% | 55.8% | 39.8% | 4.4% | Reported | 100.0% | 59.6% | 36.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 75% | 91.6% | 49.3% | 37.7% | 4.6% | other | 3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
305 | Votes | 7,456 | 4,160 | 2,967 | 328 | Votes | 7456 | 4,441 | 2,739 | 171 | 105 | 8.40% | TVM | 100.0% | 51.4% | 44.0% | 4.6% | 100.0% | 55.2% | 36.5% | 3.3% | 4,160 | 2,967 | 4,441 | 2,739 | 3,832 | 3,281 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
306 | Margin | -1,193 | -16.0% | Margin | -1,703 | -22.8% | Votes | 7,456 | 3,832 | 3,281 | 343 | -1,193 | -1,703 | -552 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
307 | Margin | -552 | -11.6% | -510 | 1,151 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
308 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
309 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
310 | 20 | GA | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/georgia/president | GA | GA | Gallup | GA | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
311 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
312 | Dem | 34% | 94% | 5% | 1.0% | Dem | 34% | 94% | 5% | 1.0% | Dem | 30.8% | 94% | 5% | 1% | white | 60% | 21% | 75% | 4% | n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
313 | Rep | 36% | 4% | 94% | 2.0% | Rep | 36% | 4% | 94% | 2.0% | Rep | 34.2% | 4% | 94% | 2% | black | 30% | 89% | 9% | 2% | n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
314 | Ind | 30% | 45% | 42% | 13.0% | Ind | 30% | 41% | 52% | 7.0% | Ind | 35.0% | 41% | 52% | 7% | latino | 4% | 67% | 27% | 6% | n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
315 | Match | 100% | 46.9% | 48.1% | 5.0% | Calc | 100% | 45.7% | 51.1% | 3.2% | TVM1 | 100% | 44.7% | 51.9% | 3.4% | asian | 3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 44.7% | 51.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
316 | Unadjusted | 100% | 46.8% | 48.2% | 5.0% | Reported | 99.5% | 45.6% | 50.8% | 3.0% | 75% | 92.6% | 40.5% | 47.7% | 4.4% | other | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
317 | Votes | 4,115 | 1,926 | 1,983 | 206 | Votes | 4,115 | 1,878 | 2,089 | 125 | 7.38% | TVM | 100.0% | 42.4% | 53.2% | 4.4% | 99.0% | 42.0% | 48.8% | 3.2% | 1,926 | 1,983 | 1,878 | 2,089 | 1,744 | 2,188 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
318 | Margin | 58 | 1.4% | Margin | 211 | 5.1% | Votes | 4,115 | 1,744 | 2,188 | 183 | 58 | 211 | 445 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
319 | Margin | 445 | 7.1% | 154 | 234 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
320 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
322 | 21 | AZ | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/arizona | AZ | AZ | Gallup | AZ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
323 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
324 | 26% | 28% | Dem | 28% | 89% | 7% | 3% | 0 | 1% | Dem | 28% | 89% | 7% | 3% | 0 | 1.0% | Dem | 22.8% | 89% | 7% | 3% | 0 | 1.0% | white | 75% | 40% | 54% | 3% | 1% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
325 | 35% | 32% | Rep | 32% | 7% | 88% | 3% | 0 | 2% | Rep | 32% | 7% | 88% | 3% | 0 | 2.0% | Rep | 27.4% | 7% | 88% | 3% | 0 | 2.0% | black | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
326 | 39% | 40% | Ind | 40% | 49% | 45% | 3% | 2% | 1% | Ind | 40% | 44% | 47% | 5% | 2% | 2.0% | Ind | 49.8% | 44% | 47% | 5% | 2% | 2.0% | latino | 15% | 61% | 31% | 5% | 2% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
327 | Match | 100% | 46.8% | 48.1% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 1% | Calc | 100% | 44.8% | 48.9% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | TVM1 | 100% | 44.1% | 49.1% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 2.2% | asian | 2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 44.1% | 49.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
328 | Unadjusted | 100% | 46.8% | 48.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 1% | Reported | 100% | 45.1% | 48.7% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 75% | 95.9% | 37.9% | 47.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | other | 5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
329 | Votes | 2,573 | 1,204 | 1,240 | 77 | 21 | 31 | Votes | 2,573 | 1,161 | 1,252 | 106 | 34 | 19 | 4.07% | TVM | 100% | 38.9% | 50.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 99.0% | 39.2% | 45.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1,204 | 1,240 | 1,161 | 1,252 | 1,002 | 1,303 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
330 | Margin | 36 | 1.4% | Margin | 91 | 3.5% | Votes | 2,573 | 1,002 | 1,303 | 135 | 77 | 56 | 36 | 91 | 301 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
331 | Margin | 301 | 9.7% | 55 | 210 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
332 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
333 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
334 | 22 | WA | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/washington | WA | WA | Gallup | WA | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
335 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
336 | 36% | 34% | Dem | 34% | 91% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | Dem | 34% | 91% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2.0% | Dem | 35.5% | 91% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2.0% | White | 81% | 51% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
337 | 23% | 20% | Rep | 20% | 8% | 85% | 3% | 0% | 4% | Rep | 20% | 8% | 85% | 3% | 0% | 4.0% | Rep | 35.8% | 8% | 85% | 3% | 0% | 4.0% | Non-white | 19% | 61% | 31% | 5% | 2% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
338 | 42% | 46% | Ind | 46% | 41% | 37% | 15% | 5% | 2% | Ind | 46% | 48% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 3.0% | Ind | 28.7% | 48% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 3.0% | 100.0% | 52.9% | 38.3% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 3.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
339 | Match | 100% | 51.4% | 35.7% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | Calc | 100% | 54.6% | 37.1% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 2.9% | TVM1 | 100% | 49.0% | 43.7% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 49.0% | 43.7% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
340 | Unadjusted | 100% | 51.3% | 35.8% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | Reported | 100% | 54.7% | 38.4% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 75% | 96.7% | 42.8% | 46.6% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
341 | Votes | 3,184 | 1,633 | 1,140 | 250 | 84 | 77 | Votes | 3184 | 1,743 | 1,222 | 161 | 58 | 0 | 3.35% | TVM | 100% | 43.6% | 49.1% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1,633 | 1,140 | 1,743 | 1,222 | 1,388 | 1,563 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
342 | Margin | -493 | -15.5% | Margin | -521 | -16.4% | Votes | 3,184 | 1,388 | 1,563 | 130 | 41 | 62 | -493 | -521 | 175 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
343 | Margin | 175 | 3.8% | -27 | 696 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
344 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
346 | 23 | UT | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/utah | UT | UT | Gallup | UT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
347 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | McMull | Johnson | Stein | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | McMull | Johnson | Stein | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | McMull | Johnson | Stein | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
348 | Dem | 20% | 79% | 10% | 8% | 1% | 2% | Dem | 20% | 79% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 1.0% | Dem | 20.5% | 79% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 1.0% | white | 86% | 23% | 48% | 23% | 3% | 1% | 2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
349 | Rep | 45% | 6% | 64% | 27% | 2% | 1% | Rep | 45% | 6% | 64% | 27% | 2% | 1.0% | Rep | 46.9% | 6% | 64% | 27% | 2% | 1.0% | black | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
350 | Ind | 35% | 39% | 31% | 22% | 7% | 1% | Ind | 35% | 27% | 42% | 22% | 7% | 2.0% | Ind | 32.6% | 27% | 42% | 22% | 7% | 2.0% | latino | 9% | 62% | 24% | 11% | 2% | n/a | 1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
351 | Match | 100% | 32.2% | 41.7% | 21.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | Calc | 100% | 28.0% | 45.5% | 21.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% | TVM1 | 100% | 27.8% | 45.8% | 21.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% | asian | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 27.8% | 45.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
352 | Unadjusted | 100% | 32.4% | 41.8% | 21.5% | 3.6% | 0.8% | Reported | 100% | 27.5% | 45.5% | 22.7% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 75% | 97.1% | 31.2% | 57.3% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | other | 3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 32.4% | 41.8% | 27.5% | 45.5% | 0 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
353 | Votes | 1,131 | 367 | 473 | 243 | 40 | 9 | Votes | 1,131 | 311 | 515 | 256 | 40 | 9 | 2.90% | TVM | 100% | 31.9% | 59.5% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 100.0% | 25.4% | 43.4% | 20.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 473 | 515 | 673 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
354 | Margin | 106 | 9.4% | Margin | 205 | 18.1% | Votes | 1,131 | 361 | 673 | 50 | 26 | 21 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
355 | Margin | 312 | 26.1% | 98 | 107 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
356 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
357 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
358 | 24 | SC | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/south-carolina | SC | SC | Gallup | SC | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
359 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
360 | Dem | 27% | 93% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 27% | 93% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0.0% | Dem | 30.8% | 93% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0.0% | White | 74% | 24% | 70% | 6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
361 | Rep | 46% | 5% | 92% | 2% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 46% | 5% | 92% | 2% | 0% | 1.0% | Rep | 35.0% | 5% | 92% | 2% | 0% | 1.0% | Non-white | 26% | 86% | 12% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
362 | Ind | 27% | 57% | 26% | 6% | 2% | 9% | Ind | 27% | 46% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 3.0% | Ind | 34.2% | 46% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 3.0% | 100.0% | 40.1% | 54.9% | 5.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
363 | Match | 100% | 42.8% | 50.4% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 2.9% | Calc | 100% | 39.8% | 55.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | TVM1 | 100% | 46.1% | 48.1% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 46.1% | 48.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
364 | Unadjusted | 100% | 42.8% | 50.3% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 3.0% | Reported | 100% | 40.7% | 54.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 75% | 96.9% | 40.3% | 48.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
365 | Votes | 2,103 | 900 | 1,058 | 65 | 17 | 63 | Votes | 2,103 | 855 | 1,155 | 49 | 13 | 30 | 3.06% | TVM | 100% | 41.1% | 50.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 900 | 1,058 | 855 | 1,155 | 864 | 1,058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
366 | Margin | 158 | 7.5% | Margin | 300 | 14.3% | Votes | 2,103 | 864 | 1,058 | 93 | 50 | 39 | 158 | 300 | 194 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
367 | Margin | 194 | 7.7% | 142 | -106 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
368 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
369 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
370 | 25 | KY | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/kentucky | KY | KY | Gallup | KY | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
371 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
372 | Dem | 38% | 75% | 22% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 38% | 75% | 22% | 2% | 1% | 0.0% | Dem | 32.0% | 75% | 22% | 2% | 1% | 0.0% | White | 88% | 27% | 68% | 5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
373 | Rep | 44% | 3% | 93% | 1% | 0% | 3% | Rep | 44% | 3% | 93% | 1% | 0% | 3.0% | Rep | 28.0% | 3% | 93% | 1% | 0% | 3.0% | Non-white | 12% | 73% | 20% | 7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
374 | Ind | 18% | 29% | 68% | 2% | 1% | 0% | Ind | 18% | 23% | 67% | 5% | 3% | 2.0% | Ind | 40.0% | 23% | 67% | 5% | 3% | 2.0% | 100.0% | 32.5% | 62.2% | 5.2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
375 | Match | 100% | 35.0% | 61.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1% | Calc | 100% | 34.0% | 61.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | TVM1 | 100% | 34.0% | 59.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 3.1% | 34.0% | 59.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
376 | Unadjusted | 100% | 35.0% | 61.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1% | Reported | 100% | 32.7% | 62.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 75% | 98.0% | 36.0% | 53.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
377 | Votes | 1,924 | 673 | 1,183 | 30 | 11 | 27 | Votes | 1,924 | 629 | 1,203 | 54 | 14 | 25 | 2.04% | TVM | 100% | 36.5% | 54.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 673 | 1,183 | 629 | 1,203 | 703 | 1,049 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
378 | Margin | 510 | 26.5% | Margin | 574 | 29.8% | Votes | 1,924 | 703 | 1,049 | 75 | 38 | 59 | 510 | 574 | 347 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
379 | Margin | 347 | 18.0% | 64 | -227 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
380 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
381 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
382 | 26 | OR | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/oregon | OR | OR | Gallup | OR | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
383 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
384 | 36% | 33% | Dem | 33% | 92% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | Dem | 33% | 92% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2.0% | Dem | 29.8% | 92% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2.0% | White | 82% | 49% | 42% | 5% | 1% | 3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
385 | 27% | 23% | Rep | 23% | 7% | 87% | 5% | 0% | 1% | Rep | 23% | 7% | 87% | 5% | 0% | 1.0% | Rep | 23.8% | 7% | 87% | 5% | 0% | 1.0% | Non-white | 18% | 62% | 24% | 2% | 5% | 7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
386 | 36% | 44% | Ind | 44% | 43% | 40% | 7% | 4% | 6% | Ind | 44% | 43% | 41% | 7% | 4% | 5.0% | Ind | 46.4% | 43% | 41% | 7% | 4% | 5.0% | 100.0% | 51.3% | 38.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 3.7% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
387 | Match | 100% | 50.9% | 38.9% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 4% | Calc | 100% | 50.9% | 39.4% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | TVM1 | 100% | 49.1% | 40.9% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 49.1% | 40.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
388 | Unadjusted | 100% | 50.7% | 38.8% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 4% | Reported | 100% | 50.1% | 39.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 75% | 97.5% | 42.9% | 43.3% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
389 | Votes | 2,001 | 1,015 | 777 | 91 | 42 | 77 | Votes | 2,001 | 1,002 | 782 | 94 | 50 | 73 | 2.54% | TVM | 100% | 43.5% | 45.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1,015 | 777 | 1,002 | 782 | 871 | 905 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
390 | Margin | -238 | -11.9% | Margin | -220 | -11.0% | Votes | 2,001 | 871 | 905 | 100 | 57 | 68 | -238 | -220 | 34 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
391 | Margin | 34 | 1.7% | 18 | 254 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
392 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
393 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
394 | 27 | NM | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/new-mexico | NM | NM | Gallup | NM | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
395 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
396 | 42% | 41% | Dem | 41% | 85% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 0% | Dem | 41% | 85% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 0.0% | Dem | 36.8% | 85% | 8% | 6% | 1% | 0.0% | white | 49% | 42% | 47% | 8% | 2% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
397 | 30% | 27% | Rep | 27% | 6% | 86% | 6% | 1% | 1% | Rep | 27% | 6% | 86% | 6% | 1% | 1.0% | Rep | 24.8% | 6% | 86% | 6% | 1% | 1.0% | black | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
398 | 28% | 32% | Ind | 32% | 36% | 35% | 16% | 2% | 11% | Ind | 32% | 37% | 42% | 16% | 2% | 3.0% | Ind | 38.4% | 37% | 42% | 16% | 2% | 3.0% | latino | 40% | 54% | 33% | 11% | 1% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
399 | Match | 100% | 48.0% | 37.7% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 4% | Calc | 100% | 48.3% | 39.9% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | TVM1 | 100% | 47.0% | 40.4% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | asian | 1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 47.0% | 40.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
400 | Unadjusted | 100% | 47.9% | 37.8% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 4% | Reported | 100% | 48.3% | 40.0% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 75% | 96.8% | 42.8% | 46.6% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | other | 9% | 53% | 33% | 12% | 0% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
401 | Votes | 798 | 382 | 302 | 73 | 11 | 30 | Votes | 798 | 385 | 320 | 75 | 10 | 9 | 3.18% | TVM | 100% | 43.6% | 49.0% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 100.0% | 47.0% | 39.2% | 9.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 382 | 302 | 385 | 320 | 348 | 391 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
402 | Margin | -81 | -10.1% | Margin | -66 | -8.2% | Votes | 798 | 348 | 391 | 33 | 10 | 17 | -81 | -66 | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
403 | Margin | 43 | 5.4% | 15 | 109 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
404 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
405 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
406 | 28 | IN | http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/indiana/president | IN | IN | Gallup | IN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
407 | Exit Poll | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Reported | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Other | TRUE | Adj | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
408 | 34% | 30% | Dem | 34% | 84% | 13% | 3% | Dem | 34% | 84% | 13% | 3% | Dem | 29.2% | 84% | 13% | 3% | White | 83% | 32% | 64% | 5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
409 | 39% | 42% | Rep | 39% | 6% | 92% | 2% | Rep | 39% | 6% | 92% | 2% | Rep | 35.0% | 6% | 92% | 2% | Non-white | 17% | 69% | 27% | 5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
410 | 27% | 28% | Ind | 27% | 32% | 50% | 18% | Ind | 27% | 36% | 53% | 11% | Ind | 35.8% | 36% | 53% | 11% | 100.0% | 38.3% | 57.7% | 5.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
411 | Match | 241% | 39.5% | 53.8% | 6.7% | Calc | 100% | 40.6% | 54.6% | 4.8% | TVM1 | 100% | 39.4% | 48.6% | 12.0% | 39.4% | 48.6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
412 | Unadjusted | 100% | 39.6% | 53.9% | 6.5% | Reported | 99.6% | 37.9% | 56.8% | 4.9% | 75% | 96.2% | 42.8% | 46.6% | 6.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
413 | Votes | 2,741 | 1,085 | 1,477 | 27.4% | Votes | 2,741 | 1,039 | 1,557 | 134 | 8 | 3.77% | TVM | 100% | 43.7% | 49.4% | 6.9% | 1,085 | 1,477 | 1,039 | 1,557 | 1,198 | 1,354 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
414 | Margin | 392 | 14.3% | Margin | 518 | 18.9% | Votes | 2,741 | 1,198 | 1,354 | 189 | 392 | 518 | 156 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
415 | Margin | 156 | 5.7% | 126 | -362 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
416 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
417 | 28 STATES EXIT POLLED: ELECTORAL VOTE AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE SHARES | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
418 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
419 | Unadjust Exit Poll | Reported Vote | True Vote Model 1 | True Vote Model 2 | 75% | undecided to Trump | Unadju EP Share of Ind | 4.50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
420 | EV | Votes | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
421 | Total | 411 | 110,702 | 49.6% | 43.6% | 159 | 49.3% | 45.2% | 224 | 48.1% | 45.6% | 197 | 44.3% | 48.1% | 268 | 43.8% | 41.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
422 | Unadj | Reported | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
423 | OH | 18 | 5,496 | 47.0% | 47.1% | 18 | 43.6% | 51.7% | 18 | 43.9% | 51.1% | 18 | 42.9% | 50.4% | 18 | OH | 0.1% | 8.1% | 50% | 35% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
424 | NC | 15 | 4,742 | 48.6% | 46.5% | 46.2% | 49.8% | 15 | 47.3% | 48.1% | 15 | 45.7% | 46.6% | 15 | NC | -2.1% | 3.7% | 47% | 43% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
425 | NJ | 14 | 3,907 | 59.8% | 35.8% | 55.0% | 41.0% | 53.6% | 44.1% | 44.6% | 46.4% | 14 | NJ | -24.0% | -14.0% | 67% | 28% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
426 | PA | 20 | 5,950 | 50.5% | 46.1% | 47.9% | 48.6% | 20 | 48.9% | 46.7% | 47.8% | 45.8% | PA | -4.4% | 0.7% | 53% | 41% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
427 | MI | 16 | 4,799 | 46.8% | 46.8% | 16 | 47.3% | 47.5% | 16 | 45.5% | 48.3% | 16 | 45.1% | 47.0% | 16 | MI | 0.0% | 0.2% | 32% | 53% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
428 | MO | 10 | 2,809 | 42.8% | 51.2% | 10 | 38.1% | 56.8% | 10 | 37.2% | 57.4% | 10 | 41.5% | 51.7% | 10 | MO | 8.4% | 18.6% | 45% | 40% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
429 | IA | 6 | 1,566 | 44.1% | 48.0% | 6 | 41.7% | 51.1% | 6 | 42.7% | 49.8% | 6 | 40.6% | 49.6% | 6 | IA | 3.9% | 9.4% | 42% | 41% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
430 | FL | 29 | 9,420 | 47.7% | 46.4% | 47.8% | 49.0% | 29 | 49.3% | 45.9% | 43.6% | 48.9% | 29 | FL | -1.3% | 1.2% | 47% | 42% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
431 | WI | 10 | 2,976 | 48.2% | 44.3% | 46.5% | 47.2% | 10 | 47.2% | 47.1% | 43.6% | 48.4% | 10 | WI | -3.9% | 0.8% | 47% | 34% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
432 | VA | 13 | 3,983 | 50.9% | 43.2% | 49.8% | 44.4% | 46.1% | 48.1% | 13 | 42.0% | 49.5% | 13 | VA | -7.7% | -5.3% | 47% | 45% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
433 | NV | 6 | 1,125 | 48.7% | 42.8% | 47.9% | 45.5% | 45.6% | 47.3% | 6 | 44.8% | 50.6% | 6 | NV | -5.9% | -2.4% | 39% | 43% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
434 | NH | 4 | 742 | 49.4% | 44.2% | 47.0% | 46.6% | 46.2% | 46.9% | 4 | 39.8% | 51.5% | 4 | NH | -5.2% | -0.4% | 49% | 41% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
435 | MN | 10 | 2,945 | 45.7% | 45.8% | 10 | 46.4% | 44.9% | 46.8% | 45.2% | 44.3% | 46.7% | 10 | MN | 0.1% | -1.5% | 39% | 43% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
436 | ME | 4 | 748 | 51.2% | 40.2% | 47.8% | 44.9% | 1 | 48.7% | 43.0% | 1 | 42.5% | 49.0% | 4 | ME | -11.0% | -3.0% | 54% | 28% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
437 | CO | 9 | 2,780 | 46.5% | 41.5% | 48.2% | 43.3% | 44.1% | 47.5% | 9 | 42.0% | 47.6% | 9 | CO | -5.0% | -4.9% | 39% | 41% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
438 | TX | 38 | 8,969 | 42.3% | 51.8% | 38 | 43.2% | 52.2% | 38 | 44.6% | 50.0% | 38 | 41.2% | 50.9% | 38 | TX | 9.5% | 9.0% | 36% | 51% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
439 | IL | 20 | 5,536 | 53.6% | 38.4% | 55.8% | 38.8% | 51.1% | 41.4% | 46.7% | 45.1% | IL | -15.2% | -17.1% | 37% | 39% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
440 | CA | 55 | 14,182 | 60.0% | 31.5% | 61.7% | 31.6% | 56.1% | 36.5% | 46.9% | 44.7% | CA | -28.5% | -30.1% | 46% | 33% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
441 | NY | 29 | 7,456 | 55.8% | 39.8% | 59.6% | 36.7% | 58.2% | 37.3% | 51.4% | 44.0% | NY | -16.0% | -22.8% | 36% | 51% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
442 | GA | 16 | 4,115 | 46.8% | 48.2% | 16 | 45.6% | 50.8% | 16 | 44.7% | 51.9% | 16 | 42.4% | 53.2% | 16 | GA | 1.4% | 5.1% | 45% | 42% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
443 | AZ | 11 | 2,573 | 46.8% | 48.2% | 11 | 45.1% | 48.7% | 11 | 44.1% | 49.1% | 11 | 38.9% | 50.6% | 11 | AZ | 1.4% | 3.5% | 49% | 45% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
444 | WA | 12 | 3,184 | 51.3% | 35.8% | 54.7% | 38.4% | 49.0% | 43.7% | 43.6% | 49.1% | ? | WA | -15.5% | -16.4% | 41% | 37% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
445 | UT | 6 | 1,131 | 32.4% | 41.8% | 6 | 27.5% | 45.5% | 6 | 27.8% | 45.8% | 6 | 31.9% | 59.5% | 6 | UT | 9.4% | 18.1% | 39% | 31% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
446 | SC | 9 | 2,103 | 42.8% | 50.3% | 9 | 40.7% | 54.9% | 9 | 46.1% | 48.1% | 9 | 41.1% | 50.3% | 9 | SC | 7.5% | 14.3% | 57% | 26% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
447 | KY | 8 | 1,924 | 35.0% | 61.5% | 8 | 32.7% | 62.5% | 8 | 34.0% | 59.9% | 8 | 36.5% | 54.5% | 8 | KY | 26.5% | 29.8% | 29% | 68% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
448 | OR | 7 | 2,001 | 50.7% | 38.8% | 50.1% | 39.1% | 49.1% | 40.9% | 43.5% | 45.2% | ? | OR | -11.9% | -11.0% | 43% | 40% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
449 | NM | 5 | 798 | 47.9% | 37.8% | 48.3% | 40.0% | 47.0% | 40.4% | 43.6% | 49.0% | 5 | NM | -10.1% | -8.2% | 36% | 35% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
450 | IN | 11 | 2,741 | 39.6% | 53.9% | 11 | 37.9% | 56.8% | 11 | 39.4% | 48.6% | 11 | 43.7% | 49.4% | 11 | IN | 14.3% | 18.9% | 32% | 50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
451 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
452 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
453 | 23 STATES NOT EXIT POLLED: ELECTORAL VOTE AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE SHARES | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
454 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
456 | Reported | EV | Votes | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein | Other | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
457 | Total | 127 | 25,350 | 43.71% | 50.40% | 82 | 25,350 | 11,079 | 12,777 | 855 | 264 | 373 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
458 | 43.7% | 50.4% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
459 | TN | 11 | 2,508 | 34.7% | 60.7% | 11 | 2,508 | 871 | 1,523 | 70 | 16 | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
460 | AL | 9 | 2,123 | 34.4% | 62.1% | 9 | 2,123 | 730 | 1,318 | 44 | 9 | 22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
461 | OK | 7 | 1,453 | 28.9% | 65.3% | 7 | 1,453 | 420 | 949 | 83 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
462 | LA | 8 | 2,029 | 38.4% | 58.1% | 8 | 2,029 | 780 | 1,179 | 38 | 14 | 18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
463 | AR | 6 | 1,131 | 33.7% | 60.6% | 6 | 1,131 | 380 | 685 | 30 | 9 | 26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
464 | WV | 5 | 713 | 26.5% | 68.6% | 5 | 713 | 189 | 489 | 23 | 8 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
465 | KS | 6 | 1,184 | 36.1% | 56.7% | 6 | 1,184 | 427 | 671 | 55 | 24 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
466 | ID | 4 | 690 | 27.5% | 59.3% | 4 | 690 | 190 | 409 | 28 | 8 | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
467 | MS | 6 | 1,209 | 40.1% | 57.9% | 6 | 1,209 | 485 | 701 | 14 | 4 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
468 | NE | 5 | 844 | 33.7% | 58.7% | 5 | 844 | 284 | 496 | 39 | 9 | 16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
469 | ND | 3 | 344 | 27.2% | 63.0% | 3 | 344 | 94 | 217 | 21 | 4 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
470 | WY | 3 | 256 | 21.9% | 68.2% | 3 | 256 | 56 | 174 | 13 | 3 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
471 | SD | 3 | 370 | 31.7% | 61.5% | 3 | 370 | 117 | 228 | 21 | 0 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
472 | MT | 3 | 497 | 35.7% | 56.2% | 3 | 497 | 178 | 279 | 28 | 8 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
473 | AK | 3 | 319 | 36.6% | 51.3% | 3 | 319 | 116 | 163 | 19 | 6 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
474 | DE | 3 | 442 | 53.4% | 41.9% | 442 | 236 | 185 | 15 | 6 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
475 | RI | 4 | 414 | 54.8% | 40.2% | 414 | 227 | 166 | 15 | 6 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
476 | VT | 3 | 320 | 55.7% | 29.8% | 320 | 179 | 95 | 10 | 7 | 30 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
477 | HI | 4 | 438 | 61.0% | 29.4% | 438 | 267 | 129 | 16 | 13 | 13 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
478 | CT | 7 | 1,645 | 54.6% | 40.9% | 1,645 | 898 | 673 | 49 | 23 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
479 | DC | 3 | 313 | 90.5% | 4.1% | 313 | 283 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
480 | MD | 10 | 2,781 | 60.3% | 33.9% | 2,781 | 1,678 | 943 | 80 | 36 | 45 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
481 | MA | 11 | 3,325 | 60.0% | 32.8% | 3,325 | 1,995 | 1,091 | 138 | 48 | 53 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
483 | Trump | Trump | Trump | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
484 | Exit Poll Party-ID | Gallup Party-ID | Undecided | 50% | Undecided | 60% | Undecided | 75% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
485 | Unadjust Exit Poll | Reported Vote | True Vote Model 1 | True Vote Model 2 | True Vote Model 2 | True Vote Model 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
486 | EV | Votes | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | EV | Clinton | Trump | EV | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
487 | Total | 538 | 136,051 | 65,955 | 61,011 | 241 | 65,640 | 62,810 | 306 | 64,382 | 63,250 | 279 | 61,410 | 64,629 | 306 | 60,873 | 65,170 | 321 | 60,335 | 65,169 | 350 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
488 | 48.5% | 44.8% | 48.2% | 46.2% | 47.3% | 46.5% | 45.1% | 47.5% | 44.7% | 47.9% | 44.3% | 48.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
489 | 28exitp | 411 | 110,702 | 49.6% | 43.6% | 159 | 49.3% | 45.2% | 224 | 48.1% | 45.6% | 197 | 45.5% | 46.8% | 224 | 45.0% | 47.3% | 239 | 44.3% | 48.1% | 268 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
490 | 23 other | 127 | 25,350 | 43.7% | 50.4% | 82 | 43.7% | 50.4% | 82 | 43.7% | 50.4% | 82 | 43.7% | 50.4% | 82 | 43.7% | 50.4% | 82 | 43.7% | 50.4% | 82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
491 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
492 | Model | Trump EV | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
493 | Unadj EP | 241 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
494 | Reported | 306 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
495 | TVM1 | 279 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
496 | TVM2-50% | 306 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
497 | TVM2-60% | 321 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
498 | TVM2-70% | 350 |