1988-2012 Presidential Election Unadjusted Exit Poll Stats


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2
3
4		1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: a 52-41% Democratic margin vs. 48-46% recorded
5	8/23/2016 5:00:39		1
6
7		Richard Charnin
8		Updated: July 15, 2013
9
10		This workbook contains unadjusted state exit polls for the 1988-2008 Presidential Elections.
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12		131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116
13		E-116= 0.000000.....0001 (115 zeros)
14		Data Source: Roper Center UConn
15		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP
16
17		Unadjusted exit polls are based on actual respondent totals.
18		Final Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
19		The unadjusted exit polls are confirmed in other surveys and independent models..
20		https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/electionintegrity
21		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
22		True Vote Models
23		The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares.
24		The TVM closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in each election from 1988-2008.
25		http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm			http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005178.php
26
27		Data Summary
28		The Democrats led all 1988-2008 presidential election averages....
29		- Recorded vote: 48.1 - 46.0%
30		- Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 52.1- 41.4%
31		- Unadjusted national exit poll: 51.9 - 41.7%
32		- True Vote Model 1: 50.2 - 43.2% (previous recorded vote)
33		- True Vote Model 2: 51.6 - 41.8% (previous votes cast)
34		- True Vote Model 3: 52.5 - 40.9% (previous exit poll)
35		- True Vote Model 4: 53.0 - 40.4% (recursive)
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37
38		States flipping from the Democrats in the exit poll to the GOP in the recorded vote
39
40		1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
41		Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls. He lost by 7 million votes,
42
43		1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
44		Clnton had a 18 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million.
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46		1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
47		Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes.
48
49		2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
50		Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM.
51
52		2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
53		Kerry needed FL or OH to win. He won the national and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.
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55		2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
56		Obama had 58% in the state exit polls (exact match to the TVM), a 23 million margin (9.5 recorded) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
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58		ALL Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls are adjusted to force a match the recorded vote.
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61
62
63		Presidential Summary
64		(in percent)
65				1988-2008
66			1988-2008	Total	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012
67			Votes Cast	688,813	102,224	113,866	105,017	110,826	125,736	131,144
68			Recorded	652,315	91,595	104,424	96,275	105,417	122,294	132,310	129,132
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70		Recorded Vote	Weighted	Average
71		Democrat	48.15	47.89	45.64	43.01	49.18	48.38	48.28	52.87	51.03
72		Republican	46.02	45.99	53.46	37.46	40.82	47.87	50.72	45.60	47.19
73		Recorded Margin (RV)	2.12	1.91	-7.82	5.55	8.60	0.51	-2.40	7.27	3.84
74
75
76		State Exit Polls (unadjusted)
77		Respondents	374,937	62,490	34,016	54,410	69,716	58,215	76,192	82,388
78					24 states
79		Democrat	52.10	51.96	51.60	47.56	52.66	50.79	51.09	58.06
80		Republican	41.39	41.37	47.31	31.68	36.99	44.37	47.59	40.29
81		Exit Poll Margin (SEP)	10.71	10.59	4.29	15.88	15.67	6.42	3.50	17.77
82		Red Shift	4.29	4.34	6.06	5.17	3.54	2.96	2.95	5.25
83
84		Probability Analysis		Total	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2016
85		131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-131
86		State Exit Poll MoE +Cluster (average)		3.60%	3.47%	4.06%	3.48%	3.84%	3.43%	3.31%
87		Exit Polls red-shift to GOP		232	21	45	44	34	42	46	24
88
89		Exit Polls exceeding MoE		135	12	27	19	17	23	37	13
90		Exit Polls exceeding MoE for GOP		131	12	27	18	16	22	36	12
91				4.59E-37								1 in
92		Probability of red-shift		2.07E-33	1.21E-04	8.00E-09	5.14E-08	6.56E-03	1.35E-06	1.04E-09	5.25E-06	190,650
93	BINOMDIST	Probability of exceeding MoE		2.61E-98	3.57E-10	4.99E-22	1.79E-12	1.97E-10	5.58E-17	4.59E-37	1.22E-09	820,777,061
94
95	BINOMDIST	Probability of exceeding MoE for GOP		4.06E-131	1.22E-13	6.94E-30	1.33E-15	7.38E-14	1.11E-15	4.62E-46	2.29E-13	4,359,728,584,095
96		Pct exceeding MoE		47.81%	50.00%	52.94%	35.29%	31.37%	43.14%	70.59%	50.00%
97		National Exit Poll (unadjusted)		Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2016 primary
98		Respondents	71,436	14,287	11,596	15,236	n/a	13,108	13,660	17,836
99			Weighted				pre-elect poll
100		Democrat	51.85	51.58	49.77	46.31	52.20	48.51	51.71	60.96
101		Republican	41.64	41.76	49.11	33.47	37.50	46.27	46.95	37.23
102		Exit Poll Margin (NEP)	10.21	9.82	0.66	12.84	15.00	2.24	4.76	23.73
103		Red Shift	4.04	3.96	4.24	3.65	3.20	0.86	3.58	8.23
104
105		State Exit Poll (WPE)
106		Democrat	50.99	50.75	49.3	45.7	50.2	49.4	51.9	58.0
107		Republican	43.03	43.12	49.7	34.7	39.8	46.9	47.1	40.5
108		Exit Poll Margin (WPE)	7.95	7.63	-0.4	11.0	10.4	2.5	4.8	17.5
109		Red Shift	2.92	2.86	3.71	2.73	0.90	0.99	3.60	5.12
110
111		True Vote Model
112		Democrat	53.18	53.00	50.2	51.1	53.6	51.5	53.6	58.0	55
113		Republican	40.95	40.98	48.8	30.4	36.5	44.7	45.1	40.4	43
114		True Vote Margin (TVM)	12.23	12.02	1.4	20.7	17.1	6.8	8.5	17.6	12.0
115		Red Shift	5.05	5.06	4.61	7.58	4.25	3.15	5.45	5.17
116
117		Margin Discrepancies
118		TVM - RV	10.11	10.11	9.2	15.2	0.5	6.3	10.9	10.3
119		TVM - SEP	1.53	1.43	-0.2	4.8	1.4	0.4	5.0	-0.2
120		SEP - RV	8.58	8.68	9.3	10.3	6.9	5.9	6.0	10.5
121		NEP - RV	8.09	7.92	8.3	7.3	6.9	1.7	7.1	16.5
122
123		Dem Electoral Vote
124		Recorded		287	104	366	376	260	252	365
125		Unadjusted Exit Polls		399	260	501	463	401	349	420
126
127		True Vote Model	Weighted	Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
128		Based on Prior Election
129		1 Recorded Vote	50.37	50.17	48.6	48.8	48.4	48.5	52.3	54.5
130		2 Votes Cast	51.73	51.57	50.6	50.3	50.0	50.0	53.3	55.2
131		3 Exit Poll	52.68	52.50	50.6	51.2	51.6	50.9	54.3	56.4
132		4 True Vote	53.18	53.00	50.2	51.1	53.6	51.5	53.6	58.0
133
134		2-party Exit Poll share
135		Democrat	55.90	56.59	52.2	60.0	58.7	53.4	51.8	59.0
136		Republican	44.10	43.41	47.8	40.0	41.3	46.6	48.2	41.0
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138
139
140
141
142			Nat Exit Poll		State Exit		Recorded		State Exit
143
144		Votes	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	> Moe	Red Shift	RS to GOP
145			51.58	41.76	51.72	41.71	48.34	46.16	232	135	131
146
147	2012	129,132	na	na	na	na	51.03	47.19	na	na	na
148	2008	132,310	60.96	37.23	58.06	40.29	52.87	45.6	46	37	36
149	2004	122,294	51.71	46.95	50.97	47.71	48.28	50.72	42	23	22
150	2000	105,417	48.51	46.27	50.75	44.76	48.38	47.87	34	17	16
151	1996	96,275	52.2	37.5	52.64	37.06	49.18	40.82	44	19	18
152	1992	104,424	46.31	33.47	47.59	31.74	43.01	37.46	45	27	27
153	1988	91,595	49.81	49.15	50.3	48.7	45.64	53.46	21	12	12
154
155	MoE Cluster effect
156	30%
157		Correlation: Recorded Swing vs. EP Shift
158		Swing: change in 2-party unadjusted exit poll share from previous election.
159		Red-shift: Diffrence between 2-party unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote in current election.
160				Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
161		Recorded Swing		0.01	-	0.09	0.06	0.20	-0.16	-0.14
162		Unadj Exit Poll Swing		0.46	-	0.65	0.10	0.57	0.62	0.38
163		E/M 2004 Report (WPE)		0.24	-	0.29	0.15	0.05	0.48	-
164
165
166		In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,192 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a subset) by 51.7-47.0% (13660 respondents). The pollsters offered the following hypothesis to explain the discrepancy between the exit poll and recorded vote: Kerry voters were more anxious to be polled; 56 Kerry voters agreed to be interviewed for every 50 Bush voters. Well, of course - because there WERE approximately 56 Kerry voters for every 50 Bush voters. The pollster canard was dubbed the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. The pollsters applied the hypothesis (without any evidence) by adjusting the National Exit Poll (NEP) in order to have it match the recorded vote.
167
168		The adjusted NEP indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush voters and 37% (45.3 million) were returning Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died prior to the 2004 election and 1.0 million did not return to vote. Therefore, there could have been no more than 47 miliion returning Bush voters (38.4%). In other words, there had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS, which meant that an impossible 110% of living Bush 2000 voters had to turn out in 2004.
169
170		Returning Gore and Bush 2000 voter percentage of 2004 electorate (1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout).
171
172		We apply the following methods:
173		1) Votes Cast: Gore 51.0 million recorded + 4.5 of 6 million uncounted: Gore by 50.0-47.3%.
174		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0 / 38.2%
175		Kerry wins by 53.2-45.4%
176
177		2) 2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate: Gore by 50.8-44.5%.
178		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4 / 37.7%
179		Kerry wins by 53.6-45.1%
180
181		3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3%
182		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4 / 37.6%
183		Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7%
184
185		4) 2004 National Exit Poll (adjusted to matched recorded vote)
186		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37 / 43% (impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout)
187		Bush wins by 50.7-48.3%
188
189
190		The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote based on an impossible 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters. Therefore, the recorded vote must also have been impossible.
191
192		Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.5% and the National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%. Therefore it is likely that he won by 3-6 million; a 41.4/ 37.7% Gore/Bush returning voter mix is plausible and so Kerry won the True Vote by 53.6-45.1% - a 10.7 million landslide.
193
194
195				2004 NatIonal Exit Poll (unadjusted)
196				Sample	Kerry	Bush	Other
197				13,660	7,064	6,414	182
198					51.71%	46.95%	1.33%
199
200		Final 2004 National Exit Poll
201		(Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004; forced to match recorded vote)
202
203	2000	Recorded (mil.)	Alive	2004 Turnout	2004 Recorded	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
204	DNV	-	-	-	20,790	17%	54%	44%	2%
205	Gore	51.00	48,454	93%	45,249	37%	90%	10%	0%
206	Bush	50.46	47,933	110%	52,586	43%	9%	91%	0%
207	Other	3.96	3,798	97%	3,669	3%	64%	14%	22%
208
209	Total	105.42	100,185	-	122,294	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
210							59,031	62,040	1,223
211
212
213				True Vote Model
214				(Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
215
216				2000	2004 Cast	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
217				DNV	22,381	17.80%	57%	41%	2%
218				Gore	52,055	41.40%	91%	8%	1%
219				Bush	47,403	37.70%	10%	90%	0%
220				Other	3,898	3.10%	64%	17%	19%
221
222				Total	125,737	100%	53.57%	45.07%	1.36%
223							67,362	56,666	1,709
224
225		Bush Approval Ratings
226		For example, to adjust Kerry's 51.1 - 47.5% unadjusted exit poll margin to Bush's 50.7- 48.3% recorded margin in the Final National Exit Poll,
227		Bush's 50.3% unadjusted approval rating was increased to 53%. Corresponding vote shares were increased as well.
228		Bush had just 48% approval in the final pre-election polls.
229		With 48% approval applied to the NEP shares, Kerry had 53.7% (see the sensitivity analysis table below).
230
231		Party-ID
232		Dem/Rep Party-ID was changed from 38.5-35.1% to 37-37% to match the recorded vote.
233		There were near-perfect correlations between Bush's unadjusted state exit poll shares, approval ratings and Party-ID.
234
235		The 2006 midterms further illustrate how unadjusted exit polls are forced to match a bogus recorded vote. Democratic Party ID was reduced from 39.8% to 38%; GOP increased from 33.4% to 36%. Similar adjustments were made in 2004 and 2008.
236
237		2006 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
238		13,251 respondents			Sample	Democrat	Republican	Other	Margin
239		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/data_access/tag/congressional_elections.html#.T8yypbA7WAg		House	13251	7470	5476	305
240					Total	56.37%	41.33%	2.30%	15.05%
241
242				Senate	9783	5703	3678	402
243					Total	58.30%	37.60%	4.11%	20.70%
244
245				Governor	10552	5751	4181	620
246					Total	54.50%	39.62%	5.88%	14.88%
247
248				Party ID	12850	5110	4288	3452
249						39.77%	33.37%	26.86%	6.40%
250		2006 Adjusted National Exit Poll		______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
251		Adjusted to match recorded vote		Male	49%	50%	47%	3%
252		http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html		Female	51%	55%	43%	2%
253					100%	52.55%	44.96%	2.49%	7.59%
254				Party ID
255				Democrat	38%	93%	7%	0%
256				Republican	36%	8%	91%	1%
257				Other	26%	57%	39%	4%
258					100%	53.04%	45.56%	1.40%	7.48%
259
260
261		The return voter mix was changed.		Voted 2004	Adjusted Mix	Democrat	Republican	Other	Votes
262		(6,361 respondents)		Kerry	43%	92%	7%	1%	2,735
263				Bush	49%	15%	83%	2%	3,117
264				Other	4%	66%	23%	11%	254
265				Did Not Vote	4%	66%	32%	2%	254
266				Total	100%	52.19%	45.88%	1.93%	6361
267
268		How Voted 2004	Exit Poll		Unadjusted Mix
269		45.48%	48.43%	Kerry	48.43%	92%	7%	1%	3,081
270		46.49%	43.57%	Bush	43.57%	15%	83%	2%	2,771
271		4.13%	4.00%	Other	4.00%	66%	23%	11%	254
272		3.90%	4.00%	Did Not Vote	4.00%	66%	32%	2%	254
273				Total	100%	56.37%	41.75%	1.88%	6361
274
275
276
277
278		2004 National Exit Poll		Respondents	Kerry	Bush	Other
279		Unadjusted		13,660	7,064	6,414	182
280		Share			51.71%	46.95%	1.33%
281
282
283				2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll				Final National Exit Poll
284		Party - ID		13,660 respondents				(matched to recorded vote)
285
286			Aggregate				Final
287			Party-ID	Kerry	Bush	Other	Party-ID	Kerry	Bush	Other
288		Democrat	38.76%	91%	9%	0%	37%	90%	10%	0%
289		Republican	35.12%	8%	92%	0%	37%	7%	93%	0%
290		Independent	26.12%	52%	43%	5%	26%	47.62%	48.55%	3.83%
291
292		Share	100%	51.66%	47.03%	1.31%	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
293		Votes	125,736	64,960	59,134	1,642	122,296	59,034	62,044	1,218
294
295
296		Bush Approval
297
298			Actual	Kerry	Bush	Other	Unadjusted	Kerry	Bush	Other
299		Approve	48.00%	9%	90%	1%	50.30%	9%	90%	1%
300		Disapprove	52.00%	95%	4%	1%	49.70%	95%	4%	1%
301
302		Share	100%	53.72%	45.28%	1.00%	100%	51.74%	47.26%	1.00%
303		Votes	125,736	67,545	56,933	1,257	122,296	63,278	57,795	1,223
304
305
306		Sensitivity Analysis
307			Rep	Democratic Party-ID				Total Bush Approval
308			Party-ID	37.00%	38.00%	38.76%	Kerry Bush	50.30%	49.00%	48.00%
309					Kerry share		Appoval		Kerry share
310			35.12%	50.98%	51.37%	51.66%	10%	52.25%	53.35%	54.20%
311			36%	50.52%	50.91%	51.21%	9%	51.74%	52.86%	53.72%
312			37%	50.00%	50.39%	50.69%	8%	51.24%	52.37%	53.24%
313
314
315
316		Democratic Vote Shares
317									Unweighted	Weighted
318			1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	Average	Average
319		State Unadjusted Exit Poll	51.60	47.56	52.66	50.79	51.09	58.06	51.96	52.10
320		National Unadjusted Exit Poll	49.77	46.31	52.20	48.51	51.71	60.96	51.58	51.85
321		State Exit Poll (WPE/IMS)	49.30	45.70	50.20	49.40	51.90	58.00	50.75	50.99
322		True Vote Model	50.20	51.10	53.60	51.50	53.60	58.00	53.00	53.18
323		National Recorded Vote	45.64	43.01	49.18	48.38	48.28	52.87	47.89	48.05
324
325		Votes Cast	102.25	113.87	105.01	110.83	125.74	131.46	51.82	52.03
326		Total	689.15
327
328
329
330
331		Related Links
332
333		http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/EvaluationofEdisonMitofskyElectionSystem.pdf
334
335		US Count Votes analysis of the Ohio 2004 exit poll discrepancies
336		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/OH/2004Election/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf
337
338		Exit Poll Response
339		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/USCV_exit_poll_analysis.pdf
340		http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm
341
342		https://www.facebook.com/richard.charnin/posts/735042649871085
343
344
345
346				REp	11	26	16	12	22	36
347				Dem	0	0	0	1	1	1
348


1
2	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=8
3
4	2012 unadjusted exit polls not released; just 31 states polled
5
6	2012 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote match)
7	2008	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Return	Turnout	Mix	Obama	Romney	Other	Turnout/alive
8	Obama	52.93%	70.24	69.50	66.02	62.72	58.11	45%	90%	7%	3%	88%
9	McCain	45.65%	60.19	59.95	56.95	54.1	52.94	41%	7%	93%	0%	93%
10	Other	1.42%	1.88	1.87	1.77	1.68	1.29	1%	51%	45%	4%	73%
11	Did Not Vote (new)	-	-	-	-	-	16.79	13%	55%	42%	3%	-
12												Margin
13	TOTAL	100%	132.31	131.31	124.75	118.51	129.13	100%	51.03%	47.19%	1.78%	3.84%
14								Vote	65.9	60.94	2.3	4.96
15
16
17
18	2012 True Vote Model
19	2008	Exit Poll (True Vote)	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Return	Turnout	Mix	Obama	Romney	Other	Turnout/alive
20	Obama	58.13%	76.92	69.50	73.07	69.42	69.42	53.76%	90%	7%	3%	95%
21	McCain	40.26%	53.27	59.95	50.6	48.07	48.07	37.23%	7%	93%	0%	95%
22	Other	1.61%	2.12	1.87	2.02	1.92	1.92	1.48%	51%	45%	4%	95%
23	Did Not Vote (new)	-	-	-	-	-	9.72	7.53%	55%	42%	3%	-
24												Margin	Discrepancy	Red Shift
25	TOTAL	100%	132.31	131.31	125.69	119.41	129.13	100%	55.89%	42.22%	1.90%	13.67%	9.83%	4.92%
26								Vote	72.17	54.51	2.45	17.65	12.69
27
28
29
30			True Vote Model (2-party)			LV-based Poll Projection (2-party)			Recorded share
31			Obama	Romney	EV	Obama	Romney	EV	Obama	Romney	EV	Red-shift	SimWinProb
32			56.48	43.52	371	51.57	48.43	332	51.03	47.19	332	4.53	99.7%
33								2-party	51.95	48.05
34		AK	49.4	50.6		39.2	60.8		40.8	54.8		6.40	0%	Alaska	3
35		AL	50.8	49.2	9	41.0	59.0		38.4	60.5		11.85	0%	Alabama	9
36		AR	46.8	53.2		36.5	63.5		36.9	60.6		8.65	0%	Arkansas	6
37		AZ	50.2	49.8	11	46.5	53.5		44.4	53.5		4.75	1%	Arizona	11
38		CA	64.3	35.7	55	57.5	42.5	55	60.2	37.1	55	2.75	100%	California	55
39
40		CO	51.2	48.8	9	51.0	49.0	9	51.5	46.1	9	-1.50	74%	Colorado	9
41		CT	69.8	30.2	7	56.5	43.5	7	58.1	40.7	7	11.10	100%	Connecticut	7
42		DC	85.2	14.8	3	90.0	10.0	3	90.9	7.3	3	-6.60	100%	D.C.	3
43		DE	64.8	35.2	3	62.5	37.5	3	58.6	40.0	3	5.50	100%	Delaware	3
44		FL	51.3	48.7	29	50.5	49.5	29	49.9	49.0	29	0.85	63%	Florida	29
45
46		GA	49.7	50.3		46.0	54.0		45.5	53.3		3.60	0%	Georgia	16
47		HI	67.0	33.0	4	63.5	36.5	4	70.5	27.8	4	-4.35	100%	Hawaii	4
48		IA	55.4	44.6	6	52.0	48.0	6	52.0	46.2	6	2.50	90%	Iowa	6
49		ID	42.7	57.3		37.3	62.7		32.4	64.1		8.55	0%	Idaho	4
50		IL	63.2	36.8	20	58.0	42.0	20	57.6	40.7	20	4.75	100%	Illinois	20
51
52		IN	54.0	46.0	11	45.5	54.5		43.9	54.1		9.10	0%	Indiana	11
53		KS	45.9	54.1		42.5	57.5		38.0	59.7		6.75	0%	Kansas	6
54		KY	46.7	53.3		43.0	57.0		37.8	60.5		8.05	0%	Kentucky	8
55		LA	45.7	54.3		40.7	59.3		40.6	57.8		4.30	0%	Louisiana	8
56		MA	64.7	35.3	11	57.5	42.5	11	60.7	37.5	11	3.10	100%	Massachusetts	11
57
58		MD	64.3	35.7	10	59.5	40.5	10	62.0	35.9	10	1.25	100%	Maryland	10
59		ME	60.1	39.9	4	55.0	45.0	4	56.3	41.0	4	2.45	100%	Maine	4
60		MI	60.1	39.9	16	53.0	47.0	16	54.1	44.6	16	5.35	98%	Michigan	16
61		MN	59.8	40.2	10	54.0	46.0	10	52.7	45.0	10	5.95	100%	Minnesota	10
62		MO	55.6	44.4	10	46.0	54.0		44.4	53.8		10.30	0%	Missouri	10
63
64		MS	47.6	52.4		43.4	56.6		43.8	55.3		3.35	0%	Mississippi	6
65		MT	53.1	46.9	3	45.0	55.0		41.7	55.4		9.95	0%	Montana	3
66		NC	52.0	48.0	15	50.0	50.0		48.4	50.4		3.00	50%	North Carolina	15
67		ND	40.1	59.9		43.0	57.0		38.7	58.3		-0.10	0%	North Dakota	3
68		NE	48.8	51.2		43.5	56.5		38.0	59.8		9.70	0%	Nebraska	5
69
70		NH	59.2	40.8	4	51.0	49.0	4	52.0	46.4	4	6.40	74%	New Hampshire	4
71		NJ	61.0	39.0	14	56.0	44.0	14	58.2	40.5	14	2.15	100%	New Jersey	14
72		NM	56.9	43.1	5	54.5	45.5	5	53.0	42.8	5	1.80	100%	New Mexico	5
73		NV	54.9	45.1	6	52.0	48.0	6	52.4	45.7	6	1.55	90%	Nevada	6
74		NY	67.5	32.5	29	64.5	35.5	29	63.3	35.2	29	3.45	100%	New York	29
75
76		OH	54.8	45.2	18	53.0	47.0	18	50.7	47.7	18	3.30	98%	Ohio	18
77		OK	40.8	59.2		37.5	62.5		33.2	66.8		7.60	0%	Oklahoma	7
78		OR	57.2	42.8	7	53.0	47.0	7	54.2	42.1	7	1.15	98%	Oregon	7
79		PA	60.8	39.2	20	53.0	47.0	20	52.0	46.6	20	8.10	98%	Pennsylvania	20
80		RI	65.0	35.0	4	60.5	39.5	4	62.7	35.2	4	1.25	100%	Rhode Island	4
81
82		SC	47.0	53.0		47.0	53.0		44.1	54.6		2.25	2%	South Carolina	9
83		SD	48.7	51.3		44.5	55.5		39.9	57.9		7.70	0%	South Dakota	3
84		TN	47.6	52.4		46.5	53.5		39.1	59.5		7.80	1%	Tennessee	11
85		TX	46.1	53.9		42.0	58.0		41.4	57.2		4.00	0%	Texas	38
86		UT	34.9	65.1		29.0	71.0		24.7	72.6		8.85	0%	Utah	6
87
88		VA	59.7	40.3		52.0	48.0	13	51.2	47.3	13	7.75	90%	Virginia	13
89		VT	67.9	32.1		68.5	31.5	3	66.6	31.0	3	0.10	100%	Vermont	3
90		WA	57.2	42.8	13	55.5	44.5	12	55.9	41.1	12	-0.20	100%	Washington	12
91		WI	60.5	39.5	3	51.5	48.5	10	52.8	45.9	10	7.05	84%	Wisconsin	10
92		WV	45.3	54.7	12	43.0	57.0		35.5	62.3		8.70	0%	West Virginia	5
93		WY	35.9	64.1	10	33.9	66.1		27.8	68.6		6.30	0%	Wyoming	3
94
95
96	2012 Pre-election True Vote Model Forecast
97		National			2012		2-party projection assumes returning voters based on 2008 exit poll
98	2008	Exit Poll	Share	Alive	Turnout	Cast	Vote Mix	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney
99	Obama	76,196	58.00%	72,386	95%	68,767	54.22%	90%	10%	61,890	6,877
100	McCain	52,995	40.34%	50,346	95%	47,828	37.71%	7%	93%	3,348	44,480
101	Other	2,185	1.66%	2,076	95%	1,972	1.55%	50%	50%	986	986
102	DNV	-	-	-	-	7,173	6.52%	58.98%	41.02%	4,874	3,390
103	Total	131,372	100%	124808	95%	125,741	100%	56.06%	43.94%	71,099	55,733
104
105							Projected	51.55%	48.45%
106							Recorded	51.03%	47.15%	64,164	59,288
107							2-party	51.97%	48.03%
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134		National			2012		2-party projection assumes returning voters based on 2008 exit poll
135	2008	Exit Poll	Share	Alive	Turnout	Cast	Vote Mix	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney
136	Obama	76196	58%	72386	95%	68767	54.22%	90%	10%	61890	6877
137	McCain	52995	40.34%	50346	95%	47828	37.71%	7%	93%	3348	44480
138	Other	2185	1.66%	2076	95%	1972	1.55%	50%	50%	986	986
139	DNV	-	-	-	-	7173	6.52%	58.98%	41.02%	4874	3390
140	Total	131372	100%	124808	95%	125741	100%	56.06%	43.94%	71099	55733
141							Projected	51.55%	48.45%
142							Recorded	51.03%	47.15%	64164	59288
143							2-party	51.97%	48.03%


1
2
3						2008 State & National Unadjusted Exit Polls, True Votes, Late and Recorded Votes
4
5
6		Leip 2008	Recorded	Share		Measure		Method	Sample	Obama	McCain	MoE	2-party
7		Obama	69,499	52.87%		State Aggr	1	Unweighted	82,388	56.59	41.63	0.50%	57.62
8		McCain	59,950	45.60%		State Aggr	2	Weighted	82,388	58.06	40.29	0.50%	59.03
9		Independent	739	0.56%
10		Libertarian	523	0.40%		Unadj NEP	3	Sample	17,836	60.96	37.23	1.00%	62.08
11		Other	751	0.57%		Voted2004	4	Sample	4,178	58.00	40.38	2.00%	58.96
12		Total	131,463	100.00%		State Aggr	5	TVM-4	NatTVM	57.96	40.77		58.71
13						State Aggr	6	TVM-3	NatTVM	56.40	42.02		57.31
14						True Vote	7	TVM-4	StateTVM	57.29	40.44		58.62
15						Exit Poll	8	TVM-3	StateTVM	56.27	41.58		57.51
16						Votes Cast	9	TVM-2	StateTVM	55.20	43.30		56.04
17						Recorded	10	TVM-1	StateTVM	54.50	44.00		55.33
18
19						Late Votes	11	Recorded	10.2 mil	59.20	37.50		61.22
20
21								Average		57.31	40.83		58.40
22							Recorded	Final NEP		52.87	45.6		53.69
23
24			1A	Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll					2A	Final 2004 National Exit Poll					3A	Final 2004 National Exit Poll
25				(Biased sample? Kerry True Vote 2% higher)						(forced to match recorded vote)						(forced to match recorded vote)
26				Total	Kerry	Bush	Other		Forced	Total	Kerry	Bush	Other		GENDER	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
27			Resp.	13,660	7,064	6,414	182		Respondents	13,660	6,594	6,930	136		Female	54%	51%	48%	1%
28			Share	100%	51.71%	46.95%	1.33%		Share	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%		Male	46%	45%	54%	1%
29															Total	100%	48.24%	50.76%	1.00%
30
31			4A	Unadjusted 2004 NEP (13660 resp)					5A	Final 2004 NEP (13660 resp)					6A	2004 True Vote Model
32			(Biased sample? Gore had 50.8% in state exit polls)						(impossible returning Bush 2000 voters)							(Returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
33	2000	2000	Implied	Voter	12:22am Vote Shares			2000	Implied	Voter	Adjusted Final NEP shares				2000	Voter	12:22am Vote Shares
34	Voted	Implied	Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Implied	Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
35	DNV	-	23.12	18.38%	57%	41%	2%	-	20.79	17%	54%	44%	2%		DNV	17%	57%	41%	2%
36	Gore	47.02%	48.25	38.37%	91%	8%	1%	44.58%	45.25	37%	90%	10%	0%		Gore	42%	91%	8%	1%
37	Bush	48.40%	49.67	39.50%	10%	90%	0%	51.81%	52.59	43%	9%	91%	0%		Bush	38%	10%	90%	0%
38	Other	4.58%	4.70	3.74%	64%	17%	19%	3.61%	3.67	3%	64%	14%	22%		Other	3%	64%	17%	19%
39
40		100.00%	125.74	100.00%	51.74%	46.80%	1.46%	100%	122.30	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%			100%	53.63%	45.04%	1.33%
41			Total	125.74	65.06	58.84	1.84		Total	122.30	59.03	62.04	1.22		Total	125.74	67.43	56.63	1.67
42
43
44			3	Unadjusted 2008 NEP (17836)				7A		Final 2008 NEP (17836 resp)					13	Unadjusted 2008 NEP- How Voted in 2004
45										(forced to match recorded vote)					(see Table # 4)
46			Total	Resp.	Obama	McCain	Other		GENDER	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other		Voted	Kerry	Bush	Other	DNV	Total
47			Votes	17,836	10,873	6,641	322		Male	47%	49%	49%	2%		2004	1,815	1,614	188	561	4,178
48			Share	100%	61.0%	37.2%	1.8%		Female	53%	56%	43%	1%		Share	43.44%	38.63%	4.50%	13.43%
49
50				Party-ID	Dem	Rep	Other		Share	100%	52.87%	45.59%	1.54%		2-pty	52.93%	47.07%
51				17,774	8,096	4,851	4,827		Votes(mil)	131.463	69.50	59.94	2.02		MoE	2.11%
52					45.5%	27.3%	27.2%
53
54
55
56			4	Unadjusted 2008 NEP						12	Final 2008 NEP						2008 True Vote Model
57				(see 3617 subsample in table 13)							(forced to match recorded vote with					7	(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
58	Voted	2004	2008	Exact match to TVM & unadj state					2004	2008						2004	2008
59	2004	Implied	Votes	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other		Implied	Votes	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other		Implied	Votes	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
60	DNV	-	17.66	13.43%	71%	27%	2%	DNV	-	17.09	13%	71%	27%	2%	DNV	-	15.32	11.65%	71%	27%	2%
61	Kerry	50.18%	57.11	43.44%	89%	9%	2%	Kerry	42.53%	48.64	37%	89%	9%	2%	Kerry	53.74%	62.42	47.48%	89%	9%	2%
62	Bush	44.62%	50.78	38.63%	17%	82%	1%	Bush	52.87%	60.47	46%	17%	82%	1%	Bush	45.26%	52.57	39.99%	17%	82%	1%
63	Other	5.20%	5.92	4.50%	72%	26%	2%	Other	4.60%	5.26	4%	72%	26%	2%	Other	1.00%	1.16	0.88%	72%	26%	2%
64
65		Total	131.46	100%	58.00%	40.35%	1.65%		Total	131.46	100%	52.87%	45.60%	1.54%		Total	131.46	100%	57.96%	40.44%	1.60%
66		Votes		131.463	76.25	53.04	2.17		Votes		131.463	69.50	59.95	2.02		Votes	Votes	131.463	76.20	53.16	2.10
67
68	In 2004, 125.7 million votes were cast. Approximately 6 million died, so 119.7 million were still living in 2008. Approximately 113.8 million returned to vote in 2008 (95%).
69
70
71						1	Exit Poll Sample			2	Exit Poll Vote share (%)
72						Unadjusted/unweighted aggregate					Unadjusted/weighted aggregate
73		30%	Cluster																												36		46
74					Unwtd	AvgMoE	Obama	McCain	Other		Obama	McCain	Other	EV	TV-3	TV-4	Recorded	EV
75				Votes	Sample	2.97%	56.59%	41.74%	1.67%		58.06%	40.29%	1.66%	419	56.27%	57.29%	52.87%	365						Theory	Dem					FlIp
76				131,145	82,388	2.92%	46,625	34,390	1,373		76,136	52,833	2,175	NatTVM>	56.83%	57.96%			Exceed MoE	37	1.96sqrt(Z(1-Z)/E)		4.81	419	Rep	g/(g+h)	abs(v-k)	100*f	ab-ac	7		avg	4.87
77						3.31%					59.03%	2pty					Recorded						5.27		BG				EV	55		wtd	5.36
78	State	Region	EV	Cast	Sample	MoEC	Obama	McCain	Other	EPShare	Obama	McCain	Other	EV	Obama	Obama	Obama	EV	State	>MoEC	MoE	Recorded	Obama Chg	WinProb	D,R.B	BO 2pty	ABS(Shift)	MoEC	Diff	EV Flip	EP Margin	Rec Margin	(EP-Rec)/2
79	AK	S	3	304	1,194	3.69%	586	567	41	AK	49.1	47.5	3.4	3	52.1	48.3	37.9		Alaska	1	2.84%	37.9	11.18	67%	R	50.82%	11.55	3.69	7.86	3	1.59	-21.50	11.55	50.82
80	AL	S	9	2,126	1,073	3.88%	558	504	11	AL	52.0	47.0	1.0	9	48.1	52.2	38.7		Alabama	1	2.99%	38.7	13.30	90%	R	52.54%	13.32	3.88	9.43	9	5.03	-21.60	13.32	52.54
81	AR	S	6	1,092	1,000	4.02%	460	506	34	AR	46.0	50.6	3.4		49.9	53.6	38.9		Arkansas	1	3.10%	38.9	7.10	12%	R	47.62%	7.65	4.02	3.63		-4.60	-19.90	7.65	47.62
82	AZ	W	10	2,497	1,233	3.63%	634	591	8	AZ	51.4	47.9	0.6	10	52.8	46.6	44.9		Arizona	1	2.79%	44.9	6.52	83%	R	51.76%	5.99	3.63	2.37	10	3.49	-8.50	5.99	51.76
83	CA	W	55	13,828	2,309	2.46%	1,547	706	56	CA	67.0	30.6	2.4	55	60.6	63.3	61.0	55	California	1	1.89%	61	6.00	100%	D	68.66%	6.21	2.46	3.75		36.42	24.00	6.21	68.66
84	CO	W	9	2,308	1,254	3.59%	651	578	25	CO	51.9	46.1	2.0	9	55.0	56.2	53.7	9	Colorado	0	2.76%	53.7	-1.79	95%	B	52.97%	1.59	3.59	-2.00		5.82	9.00	-1.59	52.97
85	CT	E	7	1,610	864	3.73%	634	207	23	CT	73.4	24.0	2.7	7	66.4	67.0	60.6	7	Connecticut	1	2.87%	60.6	12.78	100%	D	75.39%	13.51	3.73	9.78		49.42	22.40	13.51	75.39
86	DC	E	3	306	502	2.80%	462	32	8	DC	92.0	6.4	1.6	3	88.6	87.9	92.5	3	Dist. of Col.	0	2.15%	92.5	-0.47	100%	D	93.52%	0.12	2.80	-2.68		85.66	85.90	-0.12	93.52
87	DE	E	3	408	771	4.25%	529	238	4	DE	68.6	30.9	0.5	3	65.6	63.0	61.9	3	Delaware	1	3.27%	61.9	6.71	100%	D	68.97%	6.37	4.25	2.13		37.74	25.00	6.37	68.97
88	FL	S	27	7,951	3,350	2.20%	1,745	1,544	61	FL	52.1	46.1	1.8	27	55.7	56.2	50.9	27	Florida	0	1.69%	50.9	1.19	100%	B	53.06%	1.60	2.20	-0.60		6.00	2.80	1.60	53.06
89	GA	S	15	4,183	1,941	2.89%	992	945	4	GA	51.1	48.7	0.2	15	51.4	54.4	46.9		Georgia	1	2.22%	46.9	4.21	79%	R	51.21%	3.81	2.89	0.92	15	2.42	-5.20	3.81	51.21
90	HI	W	4	457	878	3.87%	618	242	18	HI	70.4	27.6	2.1	4	64.3	65.8	71.8	4	Hawaii	0	2.97%	71.8	-1.41	100%	D	71.86%	1.24	3.87	-2.63		42.82	45.30	-1.24	71.86
91	IA	M	7	1,501	3,125	2.25%	1,778	1,287	60	IA	56.9	41.2	1.9	7	54.5	56.5	53.9	7	Iowa	1	1.73%	53.9	3.00	100%	B	58.01%	3.11	2.25	0.86		15.71	9.50	3.11	58.01
92	ID	W	4	644	765	4.56%	320	428	17	ID	41.8	55.9	2.2		40.1	43.1	36.0		Idaho	1	3.51%	36	5.83	0%	R	42.78%	5.59	4.56	1.03		-14.12	-25.30	5.59	42.78
93	IL	M	21	5,436	1,389	3.21%	921	450	18	IL	66.3	32.4	1.3	21	58.6	60.7	61.9	21	Illinois	1	2.47%	61.9	4.41	100%	D	67.18%	4.40	3.21	1.19		33.91	25.10	4.40	67.18
94	IN	M	11	2,758	2,422	2.57%	1,348	1,046	28	IN	55.7	43.2	1.2	11	48.9	53.4	49.9	11	Indiana	1	1.98%	49.9	5.76	100%	R	56.31%	5.73	2.57	3.17		12.47	1.00	5.73	56.31
95	KS	M	6	1,219	800	4.49%	369	421	10	KS	46.1	52.6	1.3		43.7	49.2	41.6		Kansas	1	3.46%	41.6	4.53	8%	R	46.71%	4.20	4.49	-0.29		-6.50	-14.90	4.20	46.71
96	KY	S	8	1,952	1,457	3.33%	682	752	23	KY	46.8	51.6	1.6		49.2	50.9	41.1		Kentucky	1	2.56%	41.1	5.71	8%	R	47.56%	5.70	3.33	2.36		-4.80	-16.20	5.70	47.56
97	LA	S	9	2,149	1,848	2.96%	849	979	20	LA	45.9	53.0	1.1		50.3	53.8	39.9		Louisiana	1	2.27%	39.9	6.04	1%	R	46.44%	5.78	2.96	2.83		-7.03	-18.60	5.78	46.44
98	MA	E	12	3,044	767	4.24%	514	227	26	MA	67.0	29.6	3.4	12	66.0	66.8	61.8	12	Massachusetts	1	3.26%	61.8	5.21	100%	D	69.37%	5.81	4.24	1.57		37.42	25.80	5.81	69.37
99	MD	E	10	2,611	997	3.74%	670	306	21	MD	67.2	30.7	2.1	10	61.0	64.6	61.9	10	Maryland	1	2.88%	61.9	5.30	100%	D	68.65%	5.55	3.74	1.81		36.51	25.40	5.55	68.65
100	ME	E	4	716	1,560	3.10%	968	553	39	ME	62.1	35.4	2.5	4	59.1	59.5	57.7	4	Maine	1	2.39%	57.7	4.35	100%	D	63.64%	4.65	3.10	1.55		26.60	17.30	4.65	63.64
101	MI	M	17	4,865	3,096	2.20%	1,926	1,099	71	MI	62.2	35.5	2.3	17	58.3	58.8	57.4	17	Michigan	1	1.69%	57.4	4.81	100%	B	63.67%	5.11	2.20	2.90		26.71	16.50	5.11	63.67
102	MN	M	10	2,759	2,381	2.52%	1,473	854	54	MN	61.9	35.9	2.3	10	58.9	58.1	54.1	10	Minnesota	1	1.94%	54.1	7.76	100%	B	63.30%	7.90	2.52	5.38		26.00	10.20	7.90	63.30
103	MO	M	11	2,846	2,739	2.40%	1,575	1,134	30	MO	57.5	41.4	1.1	11	55.2	56.2	49.3		Missouri	1	1.85%	49.3	8.20	100%	B	58.14%	8.10	2.40	5.70	11	16.10	-0.10	8.10	58.14
104	MS	S	6	1,439	1,053	3.92%	510	538	5	MS	48.4	51.1	0.5		51.9	53.1	43.0		Mississippi	1	3.02%	43	5.43	25%	R	48.66%	5.27	3.92	1.35		-2.66	-13.20	5.27	48.66
105	MT	W	3	473	1,317	3.49%	716	579	22	MT	54.4	44.0	1.7	3	48.6	49.0	47.2		Montana	1	2.69%	47.2	7.17	100%	R	55.29%	6.35	3.49	2.86	3	10.40	-2.30	6.35	55.29
106	NC	S	15	4,370	2,814	2.39%	1,506	1,290	18	NC	53.5	45.8	0.6	15	54.1	54.4	49.7	15	North Carolina	1	1.84%	49.7	3.82	100%	B	53.86%	3.69	2.39	1.29		7.68	0.30	3.69	53.86
107	ND	M	3	321	926	4.10%	360	546	20	ND	38.9	59.0	2.2		41.0	47.1	44.5		North Dakota	1	3.15%	44.5	-5.62	0%	R	39.74%	5.74	4.10	1.65		-20.09	-8.60	-5.74	39.74
108	NE	M	5	844	1,119	3.81%	551	549	19	NE	49.2	49.1	1.7	4	46.1	46.9	41.6	1	Nebraska	1	2.93%	41.6	7.64	52%	R	50.09%	7.54	3.81	3.73	4	0.18	-14.90	7.54	50.09
109	NH	E	4	708	2,211	2.62%	1,363	820	28	NH	61.6	37.1	1.3	4	60.5	57.9	54.1	4	New Hamp.	1	2.02%	54.1	7.55	100%	B	62.44%	7.48	2.62	4.86		24.56	9.60	7.48	62.44
110	NJ	E	15	3,637	1,582	3.06%	1,010	555	17	NJ	63.8	35.1	1.1	15	61.9	61.5	57.2	15	New Jersey	1	2.36%	57.2	6.64	100%	D	64.54%	6.63	3.06	3.57		28.76	15.50	6.63	64.54
111	NM	W	5	846	2,744	2.38%	1,614	1,085	45	NM	58.8	39.5	1.6	5	58.2	58.0	56.9	5	New Mexico	0	1.83%	56.9	1.92	100%	B	59.80%	2.09	2.38	-0.30		19.28	15.10	2.09	59.80
112	NV	W	5	1,027	2,769	2.39%	1,560	1,157	52	NV	56.3	41.8	1.9	5	58.3	58.6	55.1	5	Nevada	0	1.84%	55.1	1.24	100%	B	57.42%	1.03	2.39	-1.37		14.55	12.50	1.03	57.42
113	NY	E	31	7,559	1,595	2.85%	1,141	436	18	NY	71.5	27.3	1.1	31	64.2	65.4	62.8	31	New York	1	2.19%	62.8	8.74	100%	D	72.35%	8.75	2.85	5.90		44.20	26.70	8.75	72.35
114	OH	M	20	5,483	3,211	2.22%	1,807	1,350	54	OH	56.3	42.0	1.7	20	57.1	55.5	51.4	20	Ohio	1	1.71%	51.4	4.88	100%	B	57.24%	4.87	2.22	2.64		14.23	4.50	4.87	57.24
115	OK	M	7	1,507	869	4.25%	353	515	1	OK	40.6	59.3	0.1		44.1	48.4	34.4		Oklahoma	1	3.27%	34.4	6.22	0%	R	40.67%	6.33	4.25	2.08		-18.64	-31.30	6.33	40.67
116	OR	W	7	1,818	1,249	3.53%	730	482	37	OR	58.4	38.6	3.0	7	55.8	52.3	56.7	7	Oregon	0	2.71%	56.7	1.75	100%	B	60.23%	1.78	3.53	-1.75		19.86	16.30	1.78	60.23
117	PA	E	21	5,747	2,752	2.33%	1,755	972	25	PA	63.8	35.3	0.9	21	59.3	58.0	54.5	21	Pennsylvania	1	1.79%	54.5	9.27	100%	B	64.36%	9.08	2.33	6.75		28.45	10.30	9.08	64.36
118	RI	E	4	507	833	4.06%	562	245	26	RI	67.5	29.4	3.1	4	66.8	68.6	63.1	4	Rhode Island	1	3.12%	63.1	4.37	100%	D	69.64%	5.08	4.06	1.02		38.06	27.90	5.08	69.64
119	SC	S	8	2,100	1,163	3.73%	553	598	12	SC	47.5	51.4	1.0		53.3	53.6	44.9		South Carolina	0	2.87%	44.9	2.65	15%	R	48.05%	2.57	3.73	-1.17		-3.87	-9.00	2.57	48.05
120	SD	M	3	390	977	4.08%	476	476	25	SD	48.7	48.7	2.6		45.3	49.3	44.7		South Dakota	0	3.14%	44.7	4.02	50%	R	50.00%	4.20	4.08	0.12		0.00	-8.40	4.20	50.00
121	TN	S	11	2,516	1,720	3.07%	820	865	35	TN	47.7	50.3	2.0		49.7	53.9	41.8		Tenneesee	1	2.36%	41.8	5.87	20%	R	48.66%	6.24	3.07	3.17		-2.62	-15.10	6.24	48.66
122	TX	S	34	8,435	2,101	2.77%	971	1,099	31	TX	46.2	52.3	1.5		48.7	49.9	43.6		Texas	0	2.13%	43.6	2.62	1%	R	46.91%	2.85	2.77	0.08		-6.09	-11.80	2.85	46.91
123	UT	W	5	939	555	5.09%	175	354	26	UT	31.5	63.8	4.7		40.9	42.3	34.3		Utah	0	3.91%	34.3	-2.77	0%	R	33.08%	2.08	5.09	-3.01		-32.25	-28.10	-2.08	33.08
124	VA	S	13	3,650	2,466	2.48%	1,541	904	21	VA	62.5	36.7	0.9	13	59.6	58.0	52.6	13	Virginia	1	1.91%	52.6	9.89	100%	B	63.03%	9.77	2.48	7.29		25.83	6.30	9.77	63.03
125	VT	E	3	308	862	3.85%	616	228	18	VT	71.5	26.5	2.1	3	69.4	62.8	67.5	3	Vermont	1	2.96%	67.5	3.96	100%	D	72.99%	4.01	3.85	0.15		45.01	37.00	4.01	72.99
126	WA	W	11	3,073	1,241	3.54%	719	474	48	WA	57.9	38.2	3.9	11	60.5	60.1	57.4	11	Washington	0	2.72%	57.4	0.54	100%	B	60.27%	1.32	3.54	-2.22		19.74	17.10	1.32	60.27
127	WI	M	10	2,887	2,545	2.43%	1,611	909	25	WI	63.3	35.7	1.0	10	56.0	56.5	56.2	10	Wisconsin	1	1.87%	56.2	7.10	100%	B	63.93%	6.84	2.43	4.42		27.58	13.90	6.84	63.93
128	WV	E	5	741	1,039	3.94%	469	552	18	WV	45.1	53.1	1.7		47.9	53.7	42.6		West Virginia	0	3.03%	42.6	2.54	2%	R	45.94%	2.56	3.94	-1.38		-7.99	-13.10	2.56	45.94
129	WY	W	3	250	960	3.91%	327	616	17	WY	34.1	64.2	1.8		39.6	41.3	32.5		Wyoming	0	3.01%	32.5	1.56	0%	R	34.68%	1.05	3.91	-2.87		-30.10	-32.20	1.05	34.68
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141		12	Recorded					5	TVM State Method 4				6	TVM State Method 3 (WPD)					Unadj Exit poll
142			Obama	McCain	Other	Margin	EV	Obama	McCain	Other	Margin	EV	Obama	McCain	Margin	EV	McCain	WPD	Obama	McCain	Margin	Diff
143	Obama	Share	52.87%	45.60%	1.53%	7.26%	365	57.47%	40.94%	1.66%	16.6	508	56.68%	41.81%	14.87%	432	99 EV	9.78	58.06	40.29	17.77	10.50
144	WinProb	Votes	69.5	59.95	2.01	9.55		75,364	53,692	2,172	21,863		74,338	54,835	19,502		8 states	9.62	76,136	52,833	23,303			BO recd
145	(TVM-4)											492	sumprod											2-party
146	39%	AK	37.9	59.4	2.7	-21.5		48.3	49.1	2.7	-0.9		49.2	48.1	1.1	3		23.1	49.08	47.49	1.59	23.09	Alaska	38.95%	38.95169579	AK
147	92%	AL	38.7	60.3	1.0	-21.6		52.2	46.8	1.0	5.4	9	49.3	49.8	-0.6			26.6	52.00	46.97	5.03	26.63	Alabama	39.09%	39.09090909	AL
148	99%	AR	38.9	58.7	2.4	-19.9		53.6	44.0	2.4	9.6	6	50.6	47.0	3.6	6	6	29.5	46.00	50.60	-4.60	15.30	Arkansas	39.86%	39.85655738	AR
149	100%	AZ	44.9	53.4	1.7	-8.5		55.4	42.9	1.7	12.3	10	51.7	46.6	5.1	10	10	12	51.42	47.93	3.49	11.99	Arizona	45.68%	45.67650051	AZ
150	100%	CA	61.0	36.9	2.1	24.0	55	63.3	34.6	2.1	28.7	55	64.1	33.8	30.4	55		12.4	67.00	30.58	36.42	12.42	California	62.31%	62.30847804	CA
151	100%	CO	53.7	44.7	1.6	9.0	9	56.2	42.2	1.6	14.0	9	55.4	43.0	12.4	9		-3.2	51.91	46.09	5.82	-3.18	Colorado	54.57%	54.57317073	CO
152	100%	CT	60.6	38.2	1.2	22.4	7	67.0	31.8	1.2	35.2	7	66.4	32.4	34.0	7		27	73.38	23.96	49.42	27.02	Connecticut	61.34%	61.33603239	CT
153	100%	DC	92.5	6.5	1.0	85.9	3	87.9	11.1	1.0	76.8	3	88.7	10.3	78.3	3		-0.2	92.03	6.37	85.66	-0.24	Dist. of Col.	93.43%	93.43434343	DC
154	100%	DE	61.9	36.9	1.2	25.0	3	63.0	35.9	1.1	27.1	3	64.5	34.4	30.1	3		12.7	68.61	30.87	37.74	12.74	Delaware	62.65%	62.65182186	DE
155	100%	FL	50.9	48.1	1.0	2.8	27	56.2	42.2	1.6	14.0	27	55.6	43.4	12.3	27		3.2	52.09	46.09	6.00	3.20	Florida	51.41%	51.41414141	FL
156	100%	GA	46.9	52.1	1.0	-5.2		54.4	44.6	1.0	9.8	15	51.5	47.5	3.9	15	15	7.6	51.11	48.69	2.42	7.62	Georgia	47.37%	47.37373737	GA
157	100%	HI	71.8	26.6	1.6	45.3	4	65.8	32.6	1.6	33.2	4	62.7	35.7	27.0	4		-2.5	70.39	27.56	42.82	-2.48	Hawaii	72.97%	72.96747967	HI
158	100%	IA	53.9	44.4	1.7	9.5	7	56.5	41.8	1.7	14.7	7	55.0	43.3	11.8	7		6.2	56.90	41.18	15.71	6.21	Iowa	54.83%	54.83214649	IA
159	0%	ID	36.0	61.3	2.7	-25.3		43.1	54.2	1.2	-11.1		42.6	54.7	-12.1			11.2	41.83	55.95	-14.12	11.18	Idaho	37.00%	36.99897225	ID
160	100%	IL	61.9	36.8	1.3	25.1	21	60.7	38.1	1.2	22.6	21	59.0	39.7	19.3	21		8.8	66.31	32.40	33.91	8.81	Illinois	62.72%	62.71529889	IL
161	100%	IN	49.9	48.9	1.2	1.0	11	53.4	45.4	1.2	8.0	11	49.4	49.4	-0.1			11.5	55.66	43.19	12.47	11.47	Indiana	50.51%	50.50607287	IN
162	53%	KS	41.6	56.5	1.9	-14.9		49.2	48.9	1.9	0.3	6	45.7	52.4	-6.7			8.4	46.13	52.63	-6.50	8.40	Kansas	42.41%	42.40570846	KS
163	89%	KY	41.1	57.4	1.5	-16.2		50.9	47.7	1.4	3.2	8	47.1	51.4	-4.2			11.4	46.81	51.61	-4.80	11.40	Kentucky	41.73%	41.72588832	KY
164	100%	LA	39.9	58.6	1.5	-18.6		53.8	44.7	1.5	9.1	9	49.7	48.8	0.9	9	9	11.6	45.94	52.98	-7.03	11.57	Louisiana	40.51%	40.50761421	LA
165	100%	MA	61.8	36.0	2.2	25.8	12	66.8	31.0	2.2	35.8	12	66.3	31.6	34.7	12		11.6	67.01	29.60	37.42	11.62	Massachusetts	63.19%	63.19018405	MA
166	100%	MD	61.9	36.5	1.6	25.4	10	64.6	33.8	1.6	30.8	10	63.8	34.6	29.2	10		11.1	67.20	30.69	36.51	11.11	Maryland	62.91%	62.90650407	MD
167	100%	ME	57.7	40.4	1.9	17.3	4	59.5	38.6	1.9	20.9	4	59.0	39.1	19.9	4		9.3	62.05	35.45	26.60	9.30	Maine	58.82%	58.81753313	ME
168	100%	MI	57.4	40.9	1.7	16.5	17	58.8	39.5	1.7	19.3	17	58.5	39.8	18.6	17		10.2	62.21	35.50	26.71	10.21	Michigan	58.39%	58.39267548	MI
169	100%	MN	54.1	43.8	2.1	10.2	10	58.1	39.8	2.1	18.3	10	58.5	39.4	19.0	10		15.8	61.86	35.87	26.00	15.80	Minnesota	55.26%	55.26046987	MN
170	100%	MO	49.3	49.4	1.3	-0.1		56.2	42.4	1.4	13.8	11	54.2	44.5	9.7	11	11	16.2	57.50	41.40	16.10	16.20	Missouri	49.95%	49.94934144	MO
171	99%	MS	43.0	56.2	0.8	-13.2		53.1	46.1	0.8	7.0	6	54.0	45.2	8.7	6	6	10.5	48.43	51.09	-2.66	10.54	Mississippi	43.35%	43.34677419	MS
172	70%	MT	47.2	49.4	3.4	-2.3		49.0	47.6	3.4	1.4	3	46.4	50.2	-3.8			12.7	54.37	43.96	10.40	12.70	Montana	48.86%	48.86128364	MT
173	100%	NC	49.7	49.4	0.9	0.3	15	54.4	44.7	1.0	9.6	15	55.8	43.3	12.5	15		7.4	53.52	45.84	7.68	7.38	North Carolina	50.15%	50.15136226	NC
174	14%	ND	44.5	53.1	2.4	-8.6		47.1	50.5	2.4	-3.4		43.1	54.4	-11.4			-11.5	38.88	58.96	-20.09	-11.49	North Dakota	45.59%	45.5942623	ND
175	7%	NE	41.6	56.5	1.9	-14.9	1	46.9	51.2	11.8	5.6		46.6	51.6	-5.0			15.1	49.24	49.06	0.18	15.08	Nebraska	42.41%	42.40570846	NE
176	100%	NH	54.1	44.5	1.4	9.6	4	57.9	40.8	1.3	17.1	4	60.7	38.0	22.8	4		15	61.65	37.09	24.56	14.96	New Hamp.	54.87%	54.86815416	NH
177	100%	NJ	57.2	41.6	1.2	15.5	15	61.5	37.3	1.2	24.2	15	60.1	38.7	21.4	15		13.3	63.84	35.08	28.76	13.26	New Jersey	57.89%	57.89473684	NJ
178	100%	NM	56.9	41.8	1.3	15.1	5	58.0	40.7	1.3	17.3	5	57.3	41.4	15.8	5		4.2	58.82	39.54	19.28	4.18	New Mexico	57.65%	57.64944276	NM
179	100%	NV	55.1	42.7	2.2	12.5	5	58.6	39.2	2.2	19.4	5	58.8	39.0	19.7	5		2.1	56.34	41.78	14.55	2.05	Nevada	56.34%	56.3394683	NV
180	100%	NY	62.8	36.1	1.1	26.7	31	65.4	33.5	1.1	31.9	31	65.7	33.2	32.5	31		17.5	71.54	27.34	44.20	17.50	New York	63.50%	63.49848332	NY
181	100%	OH	51.4	46.8	1.8	4.5	20	55.5	42.7	1.8	12.8	20	57.1	41.1	16.1	20		9.7	56.28	42.04	14.23	9.73	Ohio	52.34%	52.34215886	OH
182	17%	OK	34.4	65.6	0.0	-31.3		48.4	51.6	0.0	-3.2		41.9	58.2	-16.3			12.7	40.62	59.26	-18.64	12.66	Oklahoma	34.40%	34.4	OK
183	100%	OR	56.7	40.4	2.9	16.3	7	52.3	39.9	7.8	12.4	7	55.8	41.3	14.5	7		3.6	58.45	38.59	19.86	3.56	Oregon	58.39%	58.39340886	OR
184	100%	PA	54.5	44.2	1.3	10.3	21	58.0	40.6	1.4	17.4	21	58.4	40.3	18.1	21		18.2	63.77	35.32	28.45	18.15	Pennsylvania	55.22%	55.21783181	PA
185	100%	RI	63.1	35.2	1.7	27.9	4	68.6	29.8	1.6	38.8	4	65.9	32.5	33.4	4		10.2	67.47	29.41	38.06	10.16	Rhode Island	64.19%	64.19125127	RI
186	100%	SC	44.9	53.9	1.2	-9.0		53.7	45.1	1.3	8.5	8	51.8	47.0	4.9	8	8	5.1	47.55	51.42	-3.87	5.13	South Carolina	45.45%	45.44534413	SC
187	59%	SD	44.7	53.2	2.1	-8.4		49.3	48.6	2.1	0.7	3	45.5	52.4	-7.0			8.4	48.72	48.72	0.00	8.40	South Dakota	45.66%	45.65883555	SD
188	100%	TN	41.8	56.9	1.3	-15.1		53.9	44.9	1.2	9.0	11	50.0	48.7	1.3	11		12.5	47.67	50.29	-2.62	12.48	Tenneesee	42.35%	42.35055724	TN
189	63%	TX	43.6	55.4	1.0	-11.8		49.9	49.2	0.9	0.7	34	48.9	50.2	-1.3		34	5.7	46.22	52.31	-6.09	5.71	Texas	44.04%	44.04040404	TX
190	0%	UT	34.3	62.3	3.4	-28.1		42.3	54.1	3.6	-11.8		38.6	58.0	-19.4			-4.2	31.53	63.78	-32.25	-4.15	Utah	35.51%	35.50724638	UT
191	100%	VA	52.6	46.3	1.1	6.3	13	58.0	41.0	1.0	17.0	3	58.2	40.8	17.4	3		19.5	62.49	36.66	25.83	19.53	Virginia	53.19%	53.18503539	VA
192	100%	VT	67.5	30.5	2.0	37.0	3	62.9	35.1	2.1	27.7	13	67.3	30.6	36.7	13		8	71.46	26.45	45.01	8.01	Vermont	68.88%	68.87755102	VT
193	100%	WA	57.4	40.3	2.3	17.1	11	60.1	37.7	2.2	22.4	11	60.7	37.1	23.6	11		2.6	57.94	38.20	19.74	2.64	Washington	58.75%	58.75127943	WA
194	100%	WI	56.2	42.3	1.5	13.9	10	56.6	42.0	1.5	14.5	10	55.9	42.6	13.3	10		13.7	63.30	35.72	27.58	13.68	Wisconsin	57.06%	57.05583756	WI
195	100%	WV	42.6	55.7	1.7	-13.1		53.7	44.5	1.8	9.2	5	46.5	51.8	-5.3			5.1	45.14	53.13	-7.99	5.11	West Virginia	43.34%	43.33672431	WV
196	0%	WY	32.5	64.8	2.7	-32.2		41.3	56.0	2.7	-14.7		41.6	55.8	-14.2			2.1	34.06	64.17	-30.10	2.10	Wyoming	33.40%	33.40184995	WY
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210		Unadjusted National Exit Poll						Final National Exit Poll						Final 2008 National Exit Poll
211	Party ID	Total	Dem	Repub	Ind			Dem	Repub	Ind		Gender	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
212		17,774	8,096	4,851	4,827			6,932	5,688	5,154		Male	47	49%	48%	3%
213			45.55%	27.29%	27.16%			39%	32%	29%		Female	53	56%	43%	1%
214
215	Voted	Total	Obama	McCain	Other			Obama	McCain	Other		Total	100%	52.71	45.35	1.94
216		17,836	10,873	6,641	322			9,430	8,137	269
217			60.96%	37.23%	1.81%			52.87%	45.62%	1.51%
218
219
220	Sex	Total	Male	Female				Male	Female
221		17,937	7,706	10,231				8,430	9,507
222			42.96%	57.04%				47%	53%
223
224	Bush Approval	Total	Approve	Dissaprove				Approve	Dissaprove
225		4,282	985	3,297				1,156	3,040
226			23.00%	77.00%				27%	71%
227
228	Pop. Size	Total	City	Suburb	Rural			City	Suburb	Rural
229		18,018	5,443	9,010	3,565			5,405	8,829	3,784
230			30.21%	50.01%	19.79%			30%	49%	21%
231
232
233
234			Unadjusted			Recorded				Obama
235		State	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other		Discrepancy	Unadjusted	Recorded			old TVM 3
236		AK	49.08	47.49	3.43	37.9	59.4	2.7	AK	11.18	49.1	37.9			49.25
237		AL	52.00	46.97	1.03	38.7	60.3	1.0	AL	13.30	52.0	38.7			49.23
238		AR	46.00	50.60	3.40	38.9	58.7	2.4	AR	7.10	46.0	38.9			51.72
239		AZ	51.42	47.93	0.65	44.9	53.4	1.7	AZ	6.52	51.4	44.9			50.6
240		CA	67.00	30.58	2.43	61.0	36.9	2.1	CA	6.00	67.0	61.0			64.12
241		CO	51.91	46.09	1.99	53.7	44.7	1.6	CO	-1.79	51.9	53.7			55.39
242		CT	73.38	23.96	2.66	60.6	38.2	1.2	CT	12.78	73.4	60.6			66.39
243		DC	92.03	6.37	1.59	92.5	6.5	1.0	DC	-0.47	92.0	92.5			64.5
244		DE	68.61	30.87	0.52	61.9	36.9	1.2	DE	6.71	68.6	61.9			88.66
245		FL	52.09	46.09	1.82	50.9	48.1	1.0	FL	1.19	52.1	50.9			55.64
246		GA	51.11	48.69	0.21	46.9	52.1	1.0	GA	4.21	51.1	46.9			51.47
247		HI	70.39	27.56	2.05	71.8	26.6	1.6	HI	-1.41	70.4	71.8			62.69
248		IA	56.90	41.18	1.92	53.9	44.4	1.7	IA	3.00	56.9	53.9			42.59
249		ID	41.83	55.95	2.22	36.0	61.3	2.7	ID	5.83	41.8	36.0			59.01
250		IL	66.31	32.40	1.30	61.9	36.8	1.3	IL	4.41	66.3	61.9			49.36
251		IN	55.66	43.19	1.16	49.9	48.9	1.2	IN	5.76	55.7	49.9			55.04
252		KS	46.13	52.63	1.25	41.6	56.5	1.9	KS	4.53	46.1	41.6			45.7
253		KY	46.81	51.61	1.58	41.1	57.4	1.5	KY	5.71	46.8	41.1			47.14
254		LA	45.94	52.98	1.08	39.9	58.6	1.5	LA	6.04	45.9	39.9			49.72
255		MA	67.01	29.60	3.39	61.8	36.0	2.2	MA	5.21	67.0	61.8			59
256		MD	67.20	30.69	2.11	61.9	36.5	1.6	MD	5.30	67.2	61.9			63.8
257		ME	62.05	35.45	2.50	57.7	40.4	1.9	ME	4.35	62.1	57.7			66.25
258		MI	62.21	35.50	2.29	57.4	40.9	1.7	MI	4.81	62.2	57.4			58.45
259		MN	61.86	35.87	2.27	54.1	43.8	2.1	MN	7.76	61.9	54.1			58.46
260		MO	57.50	41.40	1.10	49.3	49.4	1.3	MO	8.20	57.5	49.3			53.95
261		MS	48.43	51.09	0.47	43.0	56.2	0.8	MS	5.43	48.4	43.0			54.17
262		MT	54.37	43.96	1.67	47.2	49.4	3.4	MT	7.17	54.4	47.2			46.38
263		NC	53.52	45.84	0.64	49.7	49.4	0.9	NC	3.82	53.5	49.7			46.56
264		ND	38.88	58.96	2.16	44.5	53.1	2.4	ND	-5.62	38.9	44.5			58.76
265		NE	49.24	49.06	1.70	41.6	56.5	1.9	NE	7.64	49.2	41.6			60.7
266		NH	61.65	37.09	1.27	54.1	44.5	1.4	NH	7.55	61.6	54.1			60.08
267		NJ	63.84	35.08	1.07	57.2	41.6	1.2	NJ	6.64	63.8	57.2			57.26
268		NM	58.82	39.54	1.64	56.9	41.8	1.3	NM	1.92	58.8	56.9			65.71
269		NV	56.34	41.78	1.88	55.1	42.7	2.2	NV	1.24	56.3	55.1			55.8
270		NY	71.54	27.34	1.13	62.8	36.1	1.1	NY	8.74	71.5	62.8			43.09
271		OH	56.28	42.04	1.68	51.4	46.8	1.8	OH	4.88	56.3	51.4			57.14
272		OK	40.62	59.26	0.12	34.4	65.6	0.0	OK	6.22	40.6	34.4			41.85
273		OR	58.45	38.59	2.96	56.7	40.4	2.9	OR	1.75	58.4	56.7			55.82
274		PA	63.77	35.32	0.91	54.5	44.2	1.3	PA	9.27	63.8	54.5			58.36
275		RI	67.47	29.41	3.12	63.1	35.2	1.7	RI	4.37	67.5	63.1			65.89
276		SC	47.55	51.42	1.03	44.9	53.9	1.2	SC	2.65	47.5	44.9			51.82
277		SD	48.72	48.72	2.56	44.7	53.2	2.1	SD	4.02	48.7	44.7			45.48
278		TN	47.67	50.29	2.03	41.8	56.9	1.3	TN	5.87	47.7	41.8			50.03
279		TX	46.22	52.31	1.48	43.6	55.4	1.0	TX	2.62	46.2	43.6			48.86
280		UT	31.53	63.78	4.68	34.3	62.3	3.4	UT	-2.77	31.5	34.3			38.62
281		VA	62.49	36.66	0.85	52.6	46.3	1.1	VA	9.89	62.5	52.6			67.32
282		VT	71.46	26.45	2.09	67.5	30.5	2.0	VT	3.96	71.5	67.5			58.16
283		WA	57.94	38.20	3.87	57.4	40.3	2.3	WA	0.54	57.9	57.4			60.67
284		WI	63.30	35.72	0.98	56.2	42.3	1.5	WI	7.10	63.3	56.2			46.45
285		WV	45.14	53.13	1.73	42.6	55.7	1.7	WV	2.54	45.1	42.6			55.92
286		WY	34.06	64.17	1.77	32.5	64.8	2.7	WY	1.56	34.1	32.5			41.55
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1
2													2004
3			98.15%	True Vote Model							Unadjusted National Exit Poll								Final National Exit Poll																	2004 exit poll timeline
4			(Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)							(implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)							(Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)																			http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
5		2000	Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			2000	Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		2000	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Alive	Turnout												http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
6		DNV	22,381	17.8%	57%	41%	2%			DNV	23,116	18.38%	57%	41%	2%		DNV	20,790	17%	54%	44%	2%	-	-												http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf
7		Gore	52,055	41.4%	91%	8%	1%			Gore	48,248	38.37%	91%	8%	1%		Gore	45,249	37%	90%	10%	0%	48,454	93%
8		Bush	47,403	37.7%	10%	90%	0%			Bush	49,670	39.50%	10%	90%	0%		Bush	52,586	43%	9%	91%	0%	47,933	110%
9		Other	3,898	3.1%	64%	17%	19%			Other	4,703	3.74%	64%	17%	19%		Other	3,669	3%	64%	14%	22%	3,798	97%
10
11		Total	125,737	100%	53.6%	45.1%	1.4%			Total	125,737	100%	51.8%	46.8%	1.5%		Total	122,294	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	100,185	94%
12					67,362	56,666	1,709					125,737	65,070	58,829	1,838					59,031	62,040	1,223
13																										Gender	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
14	MoE exceeded			National Exit Poll (unadjusted)							How Voted in 2000 (used above)						Kerry 2-pty Vote Win Prob			Sample	MoE					Male	46%	49%	50%	1%
15	in 23 states			Resp.	Kerry	Bush	Other				Sample	DNV	Gore	Bush	Other		State EP	51.77%	100%	76,192	0.46%					Female	54%	54%	45%	1%
16				13,660	7,064	6,414	182				3,182	585	1,221	1,257	119		Nat EP	52.41%	100%	13,660	1.09%							51.70%	47.30%	1.00%
17				share	51.71%	47.0%	1.3%					18.38%	38.37%	39.50%	3.74%				Expected	336	EV											2-party:	p =colG /(colG+colH)
18				2pty	52.41%	47.59%																			97 EV Flip to Bush							MoE=	1.96sqrt(p(1-p)/n)
19	Votes in thousands						UNADJUSTED EXIT POLL				UNADJUSTED EXIT POLL WTD SHARE					Snapshot	EDISON-MITOFSKY WPE/IMS			RECORDED VOTE				Margin Diff			WPE	Comp	Net			NDMoE	3.49%	4.53%	MoEC				42
20		Cast	Recorded	Sample	MoEC		Kerry	Bush	Nader	Other	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Other	Margin	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Unadj	WPE	Diff	-Recd	Rate	Unctd					Unadj		Win	Red Shift		RedShift		Response	EV Flip
21		126,528	122,293	76,192	3.14%	Sample	38,033	37,071	553	535	62,474	58,203	648	969	4,271	349	65,605	59,651	5,954	59,019	62,044	-3,025	252	7,296	8,979	1,683	6,586	54.50	4,235			Region	MoE	2-prty	Theor EV	Prob	>MoEC	MoEC	Deviation	B,D,R	Bush	97
22		30%	cluster	0.36%	3.09%	Unwtd	49.92	48.65	0.73	0.70	51.09	47.59	0.53	0.79	3.49		51.85	47.14	4.71	48.26	50.73	-2.47		5.97	7.18	1.21	3.59	52.49		kerry					336		23	3.14	3.06	REcorrel	0.27	8
23	1		122,293		3.43%	2pty	50.64%	49.36%			51.77%	48.23%					52.38%	47.62%		48.75%	51.25%									2-pty rec								3.09	2.98	EPcorrel	0.30
24
25	AK	293	313	1,177	3.70	W	526	611	23	17	44.7	51.9	2.0	1.4	-7.2		40.2	56.4	-16.2	35.5	61.1	-25.6		18.4%	9.4%	-9%	4.7	53.2	-20	0.37	Alaska	W	2.85	46.26	3	2.39%	1	3.70	9.19	R	53.2
26	AL	2,851	1,883	736	4.60	S	292	435	7	2	39.7	59.1	1.0	0.3	-19.4		41.8	57.5	-15.7	36.8	62.5	-25.7		6.3%	10%	3.7%	5.0	58.3	968	0.37	Alabama	S	3.54	40.17	9	0.00%		4.60	3.14	R	58.3
27	AR	1,140	1,055	1,457	3.32	S	647	798	10	2	44.4	54.8	0.7	0.1	-10.4		45.2	53.7	-8.5	44.5	54.3	-9.8		-0.6%	1.3%	1.9%	0.7	60.2	85	0.45	Arkansas	S	2.55	44.78	6	0.10%		3.32	-0.28	R	60.2
28	AZ	2,239	2,013	1,907	2.91	W	882	1,007	0	18	46.3	52.8	0.0	0.9	-6.6		44.5	54.7	-10.2	44.4	54.9	-10.5		3.9%	0.3%	-3.6%	0.1	57.3	226	0.45	Arizona	W	2.24	46.69	10	1.30%		2.91	1.97	R	57.3
29	CA	12,807	12,420	2,391	2.59	W	1,288	1,056	0	47	53.9	44.2	0.0	2.0	9.7	55	60.1	38.6	21.5	54.3	44.4	9.9	55	11.60	11.6%	11.8%	5.8	50.5	387	0.55	California	W	1.99	54.95	55	99.99%		2.59	-0.10	D	50.5
30	CO	2,097	2,130	2,534	2.53	W	1,248	1,246	19	21	49.3	49.2	0.7	0.8	0.1	9	50.1	48.6	1.5	47.0	51.7	-4.7		4.8%	6.2%	1.4%	3.1	55.5	-33	0.48	Colorado	W	1.95	50.04	9	51.24%		2.53	2.39	B	55.5	9
31	CT	1,524	1,579	872	4.16	E	545	314	11	2	62.5	36.0	1.3	0.2	26.5	7	62.3	35.9	26.4	54.3	43.9	10.4	7	16.1%	16%	-0.1%	8.0	51.0	-55	0.55	Connecticut	E	3.20	63.45	7	100.00%	1	4.16	8.05	D	51
32	DC	270	228	795	2.47	E	721	64	7	3	90.7	8.1	0.9	0.4	82.6	3	90.6	7.9	82.7	89.2	9.3	79.9	3	2.7%	2.8%	0.1%	1.4	53.5	42	0.91	DC	E	1.90	91.85	3	100.00%		2.47	1.37	D	53.5
33	DE	385	375	766	4.43	E	485	276	4	1	63.3	36.0	0.5	0.1	27.3	3	61.3	37.8	23.5	53.3	45.8	7.5	3	19.8%	16%	-3.8%	8.0	57.5	10	0.54	Delaware	E	3.40	63.73	3	100.00%	1	4.43	9.89	D	57.5
34	FL	7,372	7,610	2,862	2.38	S	1,454	1,375	16	17	50.8	48.0	0.6	0.6	2.8	27	51.0	48.2	2.8	47.1	52.1	-5.0		7.8%	7.8%	0%	3.9	49.0	-238	0.47	Florida	S	1.83	51.40	27	87.49%	1	2.38	3.88	B	49	27
35	GA	3,332	3,302	1,618	3.13	S	676	929	0	13	41.8	57.4	0.0	0.8	-15.6		42.0	57.3	-15.3	41.4	58.0	-16.6		1%	1.3%	0.3%	0.6	63.9	30	0.42	Georgia	S	2.41	42.12	15	0.00%		3.13	0.48	R	63.9
36	HI	433	429	622	4.98	W	381	241	0	0	61.3	38.7	0.0	0.0	22.5	4	58.1	41.2	16.9	54.0	45.3	8.7	4	13.8%	8.2%	-5.6%	4.1	53.4	4	0.54	Hawaii	W	3.83	61.25	4	100.00%	1	4.98	6.90	D	53.4
37	IA	1,522	1,507	2,512	2.54	M	1,239	1,231	32	10	49.3	49.0	1.3	0.4	0.3	7	50.7	48.4	2.3	49.2	49.9	-0.7		1%	3%	2%	1.5	52.6	15	0.50	Iowa	M	1.96	50.16	7	54.97%		2.54	0.51	B	52.6	7
38	ID	585	598	801	4.06	W	223	563	0	15	27.8	70.3	0.0	1.9	-42.4		32.3	66.4	-34.1	30.3	68.4	-38.1		-4.3%	4%	8.3%	2.0	63.2	-13	0.31	Idaho	W	3.12	28.37	4	0.00%		4.06	-2.17	R	63.2
39	IL	5,672	5,274	1,434	3.34	M	803	621	0	10	56.0	43.3	0.0	0.7	12.7	21	56.6	42.7	13.9	54.8	44.5	10.3	21	2.4%	3.6%	1.2%	1.8	51.9	398	0.55	Illinois	M	2.57	56.39	21	99.99%		3.34	1.20	D	51.9
40	IN	2,598	2,468	941	4.07	M	372	560	0	9	39.5	59.5	0.0	1.0	-20.0		40.4	58.8	-18.4	39.3	59.9	-20.6		0.6%	2.2%	1.6%	1.1	38.6	130	0.40	Indiana	M	3.13	39.91	11	0.00%		4.07	0.31	R	38.6
41	KS	1,188	1,188	667	4.69	M	228	431	6	2	34.2	64.6	0.9	0.3	-30.4		37.2	61.5	-24.3	36.6	62.0	-25.4		-5%	1.1%	6.1%	0.6	64.5	0	0.37	Kansas	M	3.61	34.60	6	0.00%		4.69	-2.52	R	64.5
42	KY	1,930	1,796	1,050	3.89	M	445	589	11	5	42.4	56.1	1.0	0.5	-13.7		39.9	59.4	-19.5	39.7	59.6	-19.9		6.2%	0.4%	-5.8%	0.2	52.6	134	0.40	Kentucky	M	2.99	43.04	8	0.02%		3.89	3.09	R	52.6
43	LA	2,067	1,943	1,683	3.09	S	744	918	15	6	44.2	54.5	0.9	0.4	-10.3		43.5	55.4	-11.9	42.2	56.7	-14.5		4.2%	2.6%	-1.6%	1.3	47.8	124	0.43	Louisiana	S	2.38	44.77	9	0.04%		3.09	2.08	R	47.8
44	MA	3,085	2,912	889	4.04	E	575	294	0	20	64.7	33.1	0.0	2.2	31.6	12	65.8	32.9	32.9	61.9	36.8	25.1	12	6.5%	7.8%	1.3%	3.9	56.5	173	0.63	Massachusetts	E	3.11	66.17	12	100.00%		4.04	3.25	D	56.5
45	MD	2,413	2,387	1,065	3.88	E	584	466	9	6	54.8	43.8	0.8	0.6	11.1	10	59.6	39.3	20.3	55.9	42.9	13.0	10	-1.9%	7.3%	9.2%	3.7	59.4	26	0.57	Maryland	E	2.98	55.62	10	99.78%		3.88	-0.96	D	59.4
46	ME	736	741	1,991	2.83	E	1,103	843	20	25	55.4	42.3	1.0	1.3	13.1	4	55.6	42.6	13.0	53.6	44.6	9.0	4	4.1%	4%	-0.1%	2.0	61.3	-5	0.55	Maine	E	2.18	56.68	4	100.00%		2.83	2.03	D	61.3
47	MI	4,818	4,839	2,552	2.51	M	1,375	1,142	21	14	53.9	44.7	0.8	0.5	9.1	17	54.4	44.6	9.8	51.2	47.8	3.4	17	5.7%	6.4%	0.7%	3.2	50.2	-21	0.52	Michigan	M	1.93	54.63	17	99.98%	1	2.51	2.87	B	50.2
48	MN	2,887	2,828	2,190	2.70	M	1,232	928	19	11	56.3	42.4	0.9	0.5	13.9	10	55.7	43.0	12.7	51.1	47.6	3.5	10	10.4%	9.2%	-1.2%	4.6	45.3	59	0.52	Minnesota	M	2.07	57.04	10	100.00%	1	2.70	5.19	B	45.3
49	MO	2,815	2,731	2,264	2.68	M	1,140	1,102	0	22	50.4	48.7	0.0	1.0	1.7	11	49.0	50.4	-1.4	46.1	53.3	-7.2		8.9%	5.8%	-3.1%	2.9	47.0	84	0.46	Missouri	M	2.06	50.85	11	73.25%	1	2.68	4.44	B	47	11
50	MS	1,263	1,152	799	4.49	S	364	429	5	1	45.6	53.7	0.6	0.1	-8.1		49.0	50.2	-1.2	39.8	59.4	-19.6		11.5%	18.4%	6.9%	9.2	49.6	111	0.40	Mississippi	S	3.46	45.90	6	3.69%	1	4.49	5.73	R	49.6
51	MT	482	450	638	4.96	W	251	362	19	6	39.3	56.7	3.0	0.9	-17.4		37.3	60.4	-23.1	38.6	59.1	-20.5		3.1%	-2.6%	-5.7%	-1.3	63.0	32	0.40	Montana	W	3.82	40.95	3	0.02%		4.96	1.55	R	63
52	NC	3,639	3,501	2,167	2.73	S	1,000	1,149	0	18	46.1	53.0	0.0	0.8	-6.9		49.5	50.1	-0.6	43.6	56.0	-12.4		5.5%	11.8%	6.3%	5.9	52.6	138	0.44	North Carolina	S	2.10	46.53	15	0.64%	1	2.73	2.76	B	52.6
53	ND	330	313	687	4.53	M	216	459	7	5	31.4	66.8	1.0	0.7	-35.4		34.6	63.7	-29.1	35.5	62.9	-27.4		-8%	-1.7%	6.3%	-0.9	63.0	17	0.36	North Dakota	M	3.49	32.00	3	0.00%		4.53	-3.99	R	63
54	NE	793	778	785	4.39	M	286	490	7	2	36.4	62.4	0.9	0.3	-26.0		37.0	61.5	-24.5	32.7	65.9	-33.2		7.2%	8.7%	1.5%	4.3	66.5	15	0.33	Nebraska	M	3.37	36.86	5	0.00%		4.39	3.61	R	66.5
55	NH	677	678	1,871	2.91	E	1,061	785	18	7	56.7	42.0	1.0	0.4	14.8	4	57.2	41.9	15.3	50.2	48.9	1.3	4	13.5%	14%	0.5%	7.0	44.0	-1	0.51	New Hampshire	E	2.24	57.48	4	100.00%	1	2.91	6.73	B	44
56	NJ	3,693	3,612	1,520	3.19	E	899	586	26	9	59.1	38.6	1.7	0.6	20.6	15	57.5	41.7	15.8	52.9	46.2	6.7	15	13.9%	9.1%	-4.8%	4.6	59.7	81	0.53	New Jersey	E	2.46	60.54	15	100.00%	1	3.19	6.95	D	59.7
57	NM	837	756	2,006	2.83	W	1,081	889	20	16	53.9	44.3	1.0	0.8	9.6	5	53.0	45.8	7.2	49.0	49.8	-0.8		10.4%	8%	-2.4%	4.0	56.9	81	0.50	New Mexico	W	2.18	54.87	5	99.96%	1	2.83	5.19	B	56.9	5
58	NV	871	830	2,170	2.73	W	1,138	1,008	16	8	52.4	46.5	0.7	0.4	6.0	5	52.8	45.5	7.3	47.9	50.5	-2.6		8.6%	9.9%	1.3%	4.9	49.1	41	0.49	Nevada	W	2.10	53.03	5	98.52%	1	2.73	4.30	B	49.1	5
59	NY	7,698	7,391	1,452	3.23	E	901	525	21	5	62.1	36.2	1.4	0.3	25.9	31	64.5	34.0	30.5	58.4	40.1	18.3	31	7.6%	12.2%	4.6%	6.1	57.9	307	0.59	New York	E	2.48	63.18	31	100.00%	1	3.23	3.80	D	57.9
60	OH	5,485	5,628	2,020	2.82	M	1,092	924	0	4	54.1	45.7	0.0	0.2	8.3	20	54.0	45.5	8.5	48.7	50.8	-2.1		10.4%	10.6%	0.2%	5.3	44.1	-143	0.49	Ohio	M	2.17	54.17	20	99.81%	1	2.82	5.21	B	44.1	20
61	OK	1,541	1,464	1,590	3.08	S	577	996	0	17	36.3	62.6	0.0	1.1	-26.4		33.8	66.2	-32.4	34.4	65.6	-31.2		4.8%	-1.2%	-6%	-0.6	53.2	77	0.34	Oklahoma	S	2.37	36.68	7	0.00%		3.08	2.42	R	53.2
62	OR	1,924	1,837	1,000	4.02	W	522	463	15	0	52.2	46.3	1.5	0.0	5.9	7	52.2	46.3	5.9	51.3	47.2	4.1	7	1.8%	1.8%	0%	0.9	na	87	0.52	Oregon	W	3.09	52.99	7	92.78%		4.02	0.90	B	53
63	PA	5,845	5,770	2,107	2.75	E	1,192	904	0	11	56.6	42.9	0.0	0.5	13.7	21	55.1	44.2	10.9	50.9	48.4	2.5	21	11.2%	8.4%	-2.8%	4.2	46.8	75	0.51	Pennsylvania	E	2.11	56.87	21	100.00%	1	2.75	5.58	B	46.8
64	RI	467	437	809	4.28	E	512	279	13	5	63.3	34.5	1.6	0.6	28.8	4	62.1	36.0	26.1	59.4	38.7	20.7	4	8.1%	5.4%	-2.7%	2.7	44.2	30	0.61	Rhode Island	E	3.29	64.73	4	100.00%		4.28	4.05	B	44.2
65	SC	1,899	1,618	1,782	3.02	S	851	902	25	4	47.8	50.6	1.4	0.2	-2.9		45.8	53.1	-7.3	40.9	58.0	-17.1		14.2%	9.8%	-4.4%	4.9	59.4	281	0.41	South Carolina	S	2.32	48.55	8	17.23%	1	3.02	7.12	R	59.4
66	SD	378	388	1,544	3.11	M	542	967	25	10	35.1	62.6	1.6	0.6	-27.5		35.9	62.5	-26.6	38.4	59.9	-21.5		-6%	-5.1%	0.9%	-2.5	42.7	-10	0.39	South Dakota	M	2.39	35.92	3	0.00%		3.11	-3.01	R	42.7
67	TN	2,319	2,437	1,783	2.98	S	741	1,005	21	16	41.6	56.4	1.2	0.9	-14.8		43.2	56.1	-12.9	42.5	56.8	-14.3		-0.5%	1.4%	1.9%	0.7	66.7	-118	0.43	Tennessee	S	2.29	42.44	11	0.00%		2.98	-0.25	R	66.7
68	TX	7,950	7,411	1,794	2.97	S	744	1,031	0	19	41.5	57.5	0.0	1.1	-16.0		42.0	57.3	-15.3	38.2	61.1	-22.9		6.9%	7.6%	0.7%	3.8	58.3	539	0.38	Texas	S	2.28	41.92	34	0.00%	1	2.97	3.45	R	58.3
69	UT	1,022	928	775	4.28	W	244	514	0	17	31.5	66.3	0.0	2.2	-34.8		28.1	69.4	-41.3	26.0	71.5	-45.5		10.7%	4.2%	-6.5%	2.1	59.6	94	0.27	Utah	W	3.29	32.19	5	0.00%	1	4.28	5.33	R	59.6
70	VA	3,134	3,198	1,431	3.36	S	754	670	0	7	52.7	46.8	0.0	0.5	5.9	13	49.8	49.3	0.5	45.5	53.7	-8.2		14.1%	8.7%	-5.4%	4.3	56.4	-64	0.46	Virginia	S	2.59	52.95	13	95.72%	1	3.36	7.04	B	56.4	13
71	VT	316	312	698	4.37	E	480	194	21	3	68.8	27.8	3.0	0.4	41.0	3	66.5	31.2	35.3	58.9	38.8	20.1	3	20.9%	15.2%	-5.7%	7.6	53.1	4	0.60	Vermont	E	3.36	71.22	3	100.00%	1	4.37	10.44	D	53.1
72	WA	2,851	2,859	2,178	2.70	W	1,230	912	16	20	56.5	41.9	0.7	0.9	14.6	11	56.8	41.6	15.2	52.8	45.6	7.2	11	7.4%	8%	0.6%	4.0	53.8	-8	0.54	Washington	W	2.08	57.42	11	100.00%	1	2.70	3.70	B	53.8
73	WI	3,010	2,997	2,321	2.64	M	1,206	1,086	17	12	52.0	46.8	0.7	0.5	5.2	10	52.1	46.9	5.2	49.7	49.3	0.4	10	4.8%	4.8%	0%	2.4	55.3	13	0.50	Wisconsin	M	2.03	52.62	10	97.40%		2.64	2.39	B	55.3
74	WV	798	756	1,728	3.03	E	721	983	19	5	41.7	56.9	1.1	0.3	-15.2		40.2	59.0	-18.8	43.2	56.1	-12.9		-2.3%	-5.9%	-3.6%	-3.0	48.7	42	0.44	West Virginia	E	2.33	42.31	5	0.00%		3.03	-1.13	R	48.7
75	WY	247	243	761	4.22	W	220	519	12	10	28.9	68.2	1.6	1.3	-39.3		32.6	65.4	-32.8	29.1	68.9	-39.8		0.5%	7%	6.5%	3.5	66.0	4	0.30	Wyoming	W	3.25	29.77	3	0.00%		4.22	0.25	R	66
76
77
78																		86.57%
79		Unadjusted Exit Poll				Unadjusted Bush Approval Rating							Party ID
80		Cast	Recorded	Kerry	Bush		Sample	Appr	Disap			Total	Dem	Rep	Ind
81		125,737	120,436	64,194	59,903		69,553	35,623	33,930			73,588	27,656	25,940	19,992
82				51.05%	47.64%		Avg	51.22%	48.78%			Avg	37.58%	35.25%	27.17%
83							Wtd	50.30%				Wtd	38.76%	35.12%	26.12%
84												Correlation: Bush approval				-0.72	0.93	-0.42		Correl	1.00	0.99	0.93	Pct of Bush share
85												Correlation: Bush share				-0.72	0.93	-0.42		Wtd	47.64	50.30	35.12	Rating	RepID
86
87		Cast	Recd	Kerry	Bush	Sample	Bush Approv	Disap	Rating	Rating-Bush%		Sample	Dem	Rep	Ind	Dem	Rep	Ind		State	Bush Exit	Bush Approval	Repub Party ID	105.87	71.67
88	AK	293	313	44.7%	51.9%	1,193	673	520	56%	5%		1,127	266	390	471	24%	35%	42%		AK	52	56	35	109	67
89	AL	2,060	1,883	39.7%	59.1%	731	436	295	60%	1%		737	252	331	154	34%	45%	21%		AL	59	60	45	101	76
90	AR	1,140	1,055	44.4%	54.8%	1,441	806	635	56%	1%		1,402	553	438	411	39%	31%	29%		AR	55	56	31	102	57
91	AZ	2,239	2,013	46.3%	52.8%	1,822	1,017	805	56%	3%		1,853	563	780	510	30%	42%	28%		AZ	53	56	42	106	80
92	CA	12,807	12,420	53.9%	44.2%	1,796	861	935	48%	4%		2,318	879	809	630	38%	35%	27%		CA	44	48	35	108	79
93	CO	2,097	2,130	49.3%	49.2%	2,375	1,217	1,158	51%	2%		2,477	758	905	814	31%	37%	33%		CO	49	51	37	104	74
94	CT	1,524	1,579	62.5%	36%	785	316	469	40%	4%		860	352	202	306	41%	23%	36%		CT	36	40	23	112	65
95	DC	270	228	90.7%	8.1%	786	93	693	12%	4%		837	591	54	192	71%	6%	23%		DC	8	12	6	146	80
96	DE	385	375	63.3%	36%	714	272	442	38%	2%		756	353	207	196	47%	27%	26%		DE	36	38	27	106	76
97	FL	7,372	7,610	50.8%	48%	2,413	1,236	1,177	51%	3%		2,791	1,088	1,033	670	39%	37%	24%		FL	48	51	37	107	77
98	GA	3,332	3,302	41.8%	57.4%	1,417	827	590	58%	1%		1,576	546	641	389	35%	41%	25%		GA	57	58	41	102	71
99	HI	433	429	61.3%	38.7%	625	275	350	44%	5%		623	259	142	222	42%	23%	36%		HI	39	44	23	114	59
100	IA	1,522	1,507	49.3%	49%	2,441	1,283	1,158	53%	4%		2,450	821	864	765	34%	35%	31%		IA	49	53	35	107	72
101	ID	585	598	27.8%	70.3%	749	535	214	71%	1%		797	165	415	217	21%	52%	27%		ID	70	71	52	102	74
102	IL	5,672	5,274	56%	43.3%	1,129	540	589	48%	5%		1,382	554	450	378	40%	33%	27%		IL	43	48	33	110	75
103	IN	2,598	2,468	39.5%	59.5%	776	484	292	62%	3%		894	278	417	199	31%	47%	22%		IN	60	62	47	105	78
104	KS	1,188	1,188	34.2%	64.6%	588	379	209	64%	0%		654	174	328	152	27%	50%	23%		KS	65	64	50	100	78
105	KY	1,930	1,796	42.4%	56.1%	1,011	577	434	57%	1%		1,016	454	379	183	45%	37%	18%		KY	56	57	37	102	66
106	LA	2,067	1,943	44.2%	54.5%	1,507	857	650	57%	2%		1,606	663	630	313	41%	39%	19%		LA	55	57	39	104	72
107	MA	3,085	1,055	64.7%	33.1%	688	233	455	34%	1%		827	340	119	368	41%	14%	44%		MA	33	34	14	102	43
108	MD	2,413	2,387	54.8%	43.8%	877	391	486	45%	1%		1,016	461	326	229	45%	32%	23%		MD	44	45	32	102	73
109	ME	736	741	55.4%	42.3%	1,899	830	1,069	44%	1%		1,902	608	536	758	32%	28%	40%		ME	42	44	28	103	67
110	MI	4,818	4,839	53.9%	44.7%	2,203	1,050	1,153	48%	3%		2,448	992	795	661	41%	32%	27%		MI	45	48	32	107	73
111	MN	2,887	2,828	56.3%	42.4%	1,914	849	1,065	44%	2%		2,106	868	672	566	41%	32%	27%		MN	42	44	32	105	75
112	MO	2,815	2,731	50.4%	48.7%	2,113	1,066	1,047	50%	2%		2,077	839	672	566	40%	32%	27%		MO	49	50	32	104	66
113	MS	1,263	1,152	45.6%	53.7%	769	431	338	56%	2%		783	331	327	125	42%	42%	16%		MS	54	56	42	104	78
114	MT	482	450	39.3%	56.7%	562	334	228	59%	3%		625	195	249	181	31%	40%	29%		MT	57	59	40	105	70
115	NC	3,639	3,501	46.1%	53%	1,991	1,085	906	54%	1%		2,107	826	825	456	39%	39%	22%		NC	53	54	39	103	74
116	ND	330	313	31.4%	66.8%	658	435	223	66%	-1%		655	162	269	224	25%	41%	34%		ND	67	66	41	99	61
117	NE	793	778	36.4%	62.4%	739	459	280	62%	0%		783	217	387	179	28%	49%	23%		NE	62	62	49	100	79
118	NH	677	678	56.7%	42%	1,820	812	1,008	45%	3%		1,745	479	494	772	27%	28%	44%		NH	42	45	28	106	67
119	NJ	3,693	3,612	59.1%	38.6%	1,290	524	766	41%	2%		1,433	590	399	444	41%	28%	31%		NJ	39	41	28	105	72
120	NM	837	756	53.9%	44.3%	1,970	966	1,004	49%	5%		1,895	866	567	462	46%	30%	24%		NM	44	49	30	111	68
121	NV	871	830	52.4%	46.5%	2,148	1,066	1,082	50%	3%		2,073	755	757	561	36%	37%	27%		NV	47	50	37	107	79
122	NY	7,698	7,391	62.1%	36.2%	1,238	488	750	39%	3%		1,387	668	360	359	48%	26%	26%		NY	36	39	26	109	72
123	OH	5,485	5,628	54.1%	45.7%	1,818	891	927	49%	3%		1,921	761	678	482	40%	35%	25%		OH	46	49	35	107	77
124	OK	1,541	1,464	36.3%	62.6%	1,456	935	521	64%	2%		1,527	616	654	257	40%	43%	17%		OK	63	64	43	103	68
125	OR	1,924	1,837	52.2%	46.3%	1,000	470	530	47%	1%		1,000	390	350	260	39%	35%	26%		OR	46	47	35	102	76
126	PA	5,845	5,770	56.6%	42.9%	1,850	859	991	46%	4%		1,995	885	710	400	44%	36%	20%		PA	43	46	36	108	83
127	RI	467	437	63.3%	34.5%	749	295	454	39%	5%		798	330	118	350	41%	15%	44%		RI	35	39	15	114	43
128	SC	1,899	1,618	47.8%	50.6%	1,673	902	771	54%	3%		1,690	625	657	408	37%	39%	24%		SC	51	54	39	107	77
129	SD	378	388	35.1%	62.6%	1,537	985	552	64%	1%		1,494	478	719	297	32%	48%	20%		SD	63	64	48	102	77
130	TN	2,319	2,437	41.6%	56.4%	1,558	895	663	57%	1%		1,703	550	691	462	32%	41%	27%		TN	56	57	41	102	72
131	TX	7,950	7,411	41.5%	57.5%	1,408	857	551	61%	3%		1,773	635	738	400	36%	42%	23%		TX	58	61	42	106	72
132	UT	1,022	928	31.5%	66.3%	747	503	244	67%	1%		821	171	448	202	21%	55%	25%		UT	66	67	55	102	82
133	VA	3,134	3,198	52.7%	46.8%	1,170	586	584	50%	3%		1,334	526	462	346	39%	35%	26%		VA	47	50	35	107	74
134	VT	316	312	68.8%	27.8%	669	199	470	30%	2%		692	255	149	288	37%	22%	42%		VT	28	30	22	107	77
135	WA	2,851	2,859	56.5%	41.9%	2,071	867	1,204	42%	0%		2,152	858	639	655	40%	30%	30%		WA	42	42	30	100	71
136	WI	3,010	2,997	52%	46.8%	2,173	1,115	1,058	51%	5%		2,225	798	806	621	36%	36%	28%		WI	47	51	36	110	77
137	WV	798	756	41.7%	56.9%	1,734	1,019	715	59%	2%		1,685	815	559	311	48%	33%	18%		WV	57	59	33	103	58
138	WY	247	243	28.9%	68.2%	762	542	220	71%	3%		760	197	393	170	26%	52%	22%		WY	68	71	52	104	76
139
140	Note: OR telephone poll (vote by mail)
141
142	2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
143	(How Voted in 2000)
144
145	3:59pm, 8349 respondents: Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%
146	http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf
147
148	7:33pm, 11027 respondents: Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%
149	http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
150
151	12:22am, 13047 respondents: Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%
152	http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif
153
154	Unadjusted. 13660 respondents: Kerry 51.7-Bush 47.0%
155	http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/abstract.cfm?label=&keyword=USMI2004-NATELEC&fromDate=&toDate=&organization=Any&type=&keywordOptions=1&start=1&id=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any&sortBy=DESC&archno=USMI2004-NATELEC&abstract=abstract&x=32&y=9
156
157	Final NEP 13660 respondents: Kerry 48.5%; Bush 51.1% (forced to match recorded vote)
158	http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
159
160	http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
161
162			Party - ID			Unadjusted National Exit Poll						Final National Exit Poll						True Vote
163												(adjusted mix to match recorded vote)
164						Unadj
165						Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
166			Democrat			38.76%	91%	9%	0%			37%	90%	10%	0%			39%	92%	8%	0%
167			Republican			35.12%	7%	93%	0%			37%	7%	93%	0%			34%	8%	92%	0%
168			Independent			26.12%	53.5%	42.5%	4%			26%	47.5%	48.5%	4%			27%	56%	40%	4%
169
170			Share			100%	51.70%	47.25%	1.04%			100%	48.24%	50.72%	1.04%			100%	53.72%	45.20%	1.08%
171			Votes			125,736.00	65,011	59,412	1,314			122,293	58,994	62,027	1,272			125,736	67,545	56,833	1,358
172
173
174
175			Bush Approval			Unadjusted National Exit Poll							Final National Exit Poll						True Vote
176						Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
177			Approve			50.30%	10%	89%	1%			53%	9.5%	89.5%	1%			48%	10%	89%	1%
178			Dissaprove			49.70%	94%	5%	1%			47%	92%	7%	1%			52%	94%	5%	1%
179
180			Share			100%	51.75%	47.25%	1.00%			100%	48.28%	50.73%	1.00%			100%	53.68%	45.32%	1.00%
181			Votes			125,736	65,066	59,413	1,257			125,736	60,699	63,780	1,257			125,736	67,495	56,984	1,257
182
183												National Exit Poll Timeline
184			Favorability								Voted in 2000
185											359pm	8349					733pm	11027
186			Kerry	Total	Fav	Unfav						Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
187				3,235	1,683	1,552					DNV	15	62	37	1		17	59	39	2
188					52.02%	47.98%					Gore	39	91	8	1		38	91	8	1
189											Bush	42	9	90	1		41	9	90	1
190			Bush	Total	Fav	Unfav					Other	4	61	12	27		4	65	13	22
191				3,254	1,591	1,663					Total	100	51.01	46.95	2.04		100	50.90	47.09	2.01
192					48.89%	51.11%
193			When Decided								1222am	13047					13660 Unadjusted match
194			Today	499	5.62%							Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
195			Last 3	305	3.44%						DNV	17	57	41	2		18.38	57	42	1
196			Last 7	208	2.34%						Gore	39	91	8	1		38.37	91	8	1
197			Last 30	902	10.17%						Bush	41	10	90	0		39.50	10	90	0
198			Before	6,959	78.43%						Other	3	64	17	19		3.75	64	17	19
199			Total	8,873							Total	100	51.20	47.50	1.30		100.00	51.74	46.98	1.28
200
201												13660	Final Recorded Match					True Vote Model
202												Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
203											DNV	17	54	45	1		17	57	41	2
204											Gore	37	90	10	0		42	91	8	1
205											Bush	43	9	91	0		38	10	90	0
206											Other	3	71	21	8		3	64	17	19
207											Total	100	48.48	51.11	0.41		100	53.63	45.04	1.33
208
209
210											Gender
211											359pm	8349					733pm	11027
212												Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
213											Male	42	47	51	2		46	47	51	2
214											Female	58	53	45	2		54	54	45	1
215											Total	100.00%	50.48%	47.52%	2.00%		100.00%	50.78%	47.76%	1.46%
216
217											1222am	13047					13660 Unadjusted NEP match
218												Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
219											Male	46	47	52	1		46	48	50.5	1.5
220											Female	54	54	45	1		54	55	43.8	1.2
221											Total	100	50.78%	48.22%	1.00%		100%	51.78%	46.88%	1.34%
222
223											1am	13660	Final NEP					True Vote Model
224												Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
225											Male	46	44	55	1		46	50	48.7	1.3
226											Female	54	51	48	1		54	56.5	42	1.5
227											Total	100	47.78%	51.22%	1.00%		100	53.5	45.1	1.4
228
229
230		OHIO
231											Final	CNN						Unadjusted
232			730pm	1963 respondents						1am	2020 respondents						2020 respondents
233			Mix	Kerry	Bush					Mix	Kerry	Bush					Kerry	Bush	Other
234		Female	53%	53%	47%				Female	53%	50%	50%				2020	1092	924	4
235		Male	47%	51%	49%				Male	47%	47%	52%					54.06%	45.74%	0.20%
236		Total		52.06%	47.94%				Total		48.59%	50.94%					MoE	2.17%
237									Recorded		48.7%	50.8%
238
239		FLORIDA
240											Final	CNN					Unadjusted
241			840pm	2846 respondents						1am	2862 respondents						2862 respondents
242			Mix	Kerry	Bush					Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other				Kerry	Bush	Other
243		Female	54%	52%	48%				Female	54%	49%	50%	1%			2862	1454	1375	33
244		Male	46%	47%	52%				Male	46%	46%	53%	1%				50.80%	48.04%	1.15%
245		Total		49.70%	49.84%				Total		47.62%	51.38%	1.00%				MoE	1.81%
246									Recorded		47.1%	52.1%	0.8%
247
248
249
250
251
252
253													National Exit Poll Timeline
254												Time	Resp	Kerry	Bush
255												359pm	8349	50.48%	47.52%
256												730pm	11027	50.78%	47.76%
257												1222am	13047	50.78%	48.22%
258												Final Unadj	13660	51.71%	46.95%
259					Kerry04		Bush					Final Adj	13660	48.28%	50.72%
260				State	Exit	Recorded	Approv
261	Bush Incr			AK	44.7	35.5	34.6
262	VT	20.90		AL	39.7	36.8	44.9
263	DE	19.80		AR	44.4	44.5	31.2
264	AK	18.40		AZ	46.3	44.4	42.1
265	CT	16.10		CA	53.9	54.3	34.9
266	SC	14.20		CO	49.3	47.0	36.5
267	VA	14.10		CT	62.5	54.3	23.5
268	NJ	13.90		DC	90.7	89.2	6.5
269	HI	13.80		DE	63.3	53.3	27.4
270	NH	13.50		FL	50.8	47.1	37.0
271	MS	11.50		GA	41.8	41.4	40.7
272	PA	11.20		HI	61.3	54.0	22.8
273	UT	10.70		IA	49.3	49.2	35.3
274	MN	10.40		IL	56.0	54.8	52.1
275	NM	10.40		IN	39.5	39.3	32.6
276	OH	10.40		KS	34.2	36.6	46.6
277	MO	8.90		KY	42.4	39.7	50.2
278	NV	8.60		LA	44.2	42.2	37.3
279	RI	8.10		MA	64.7	61.9	39.2
280	FL	7.80		MD	54.8	55.9	14.4
281	NY	7.60		ME	55.4	53.6	32.1
282	WA	7.40		MI	53.9	51.2	28.2
283	NE	7.20		MN	56.3	51.1	32.5
284	TX	6.90		MO	50.4	46.1	31.9
285	MA	6.50		MS	45.6	39.8	32.4
286	AL	6.30		MT	39.3	38.6	41.8
287	KY	6.20		NC	46.1	43.6	39.8
288	MI	5.70		NE	36.4	32.7	39.2
289	NC	5.50		NH	56.7	50.2	41.1
290	CO	4.80		NJ	59.1	52.9	49.4
291	OK	4.80		NM	53.9	49.0	28.3
292	WI	4.80		NV	52.4	47.9	27.8
293	LA	4.20		NY	62.1	58.4	29.9
294	ME	4.10		OH	54.1	48.7	36.5
295	AZ	3.90		OK	36.3	34.4	26.0
296	MT	3.10		OR	52.2	51.3	35.3
297	DC	2.70		PA	56.6	50.9	42.8
298	IL	2.40		RI	63.3	59.4	35.0
299	OR	1.80		SC	47.8	40.9	35.6
300	GA	1.00		SD	35.1	38.4	14.8
301	IA	1.00		TN	41.6	42.5	38.9
302	IN	0.60		TX	41.5	38.2	48.1
303	WY	0.50		UT	31.5	26.0	40.6
304	CA	-0.20		VA	52.7	45.5	41.6
305	TN	-0.50		VT	68.8	58.9	54.6
306	AR	-0.60		WA	56.5	52.8	34.6
307	MD	-1.90		WI	52.0	49.7	21.5
308	WV	-2.30		WV	41.7	43.2	29.7
309	ID	-4.30		WY	28.9	29.1	36.2


1
2											2000
3																	154 EV Flip to Bush
4			Unadjusted National Exit Poll							93.31%	Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate						94.55%	Final National Exit Poll (recorded)
5		Total	Gore	Bush	Nader	Other			Voted '96	Turnout	Mix	Gore	Bush	Other		Voted '96	Turnout	Mix	Gore	Bush	Other
6		13,108	6,359	6,065	523	161			New/DNV	17,732	16%	52%	43%	5%		New/DNV	18,982	18%	52%	43%	5%
7			48.51%	46.27%	3.99%	1.23%			Clinton	48,763	44%	87%	10%	3%		Clinton	42,183	40%	87%	10%	3%
8			Gore Pop.Vote Win Probabilities						Dole	35,464	32%	7%	91%	2%		Dole	35,856	34%	7%	91%	2%
9			ExitPoll	Sample	Prob	2-pty	MoE		Perot/other	8,866	8%	23%	65%	12%		Perot/other	8,437	8%	23%	65%	12%
10	30%	Cluster	National	13,108	98%	51.18%	1.11%
11	382	Exp EV	State	57,866	100%	53.30%	0.53%		Total cast	110,825	100%	50.68%	45.60%	3.72%		Total	105,458	100%	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%
12											110,825	56,166	50,536	4,123				105,458	51,004	50,456	3,998
13	MoE exceeded:		17	states
14	Cluster effect		30%	Unadjusted Unweighted Exit Poll Sample Count							Unadjusted Weighted Exit Poll Shares							Recorded Vote					Exit Poll (WPE/IMS)				Unadj							Response			Margin
15	States	Cast	Votes	Sample	MoEC	Gore	Bush	Buchanan	Nader	Other	Gore	Bush	Buch	Nader	Other	EV		Gore	Bush	Other	EV	MoE	Gore	Bush	EV	WPE	Discrep		Gore		Win		B,D,R	Bush	Kerry
16	Unwtd	110,825	105,458	57,866	3.29%	28,242	26,643	535	1,962	484	56,239	49,269	834	3,593	923	404	<snapshot	51,024	50,480	3,954			54,736	52,099	274	2,636	6,426	0 cluster	2-pty		Prob	Gore	RECcorrel	0.33	-0.34	12	31	21	34
17		110,825		Sample	3.64%	48.81%	46.04%	0.92%	3.39%	0.84%	50.75%	44.46%	0.75%	3.24%	0.83%	382	<expected	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%	267	17	49.39%	46.90%		1.97%	5.77%	MoE	unadj	EV	ExpEV	Deviation	EPcorrel	0.26	-0.26	Flipped	ExitP	Recorded	RedShift Diff/2	abs(RS/2)
18				Wtd	3.47%						53.30%											> MoE									382					154					Gore 2-party recorded
19		Cast	Recorded	Unwtd	3.84%
20	AK	270	286	759	4.43	235	425	18	72	9	31.0	56.0	2.4	9.5	1.2		W	27.7	58.6	13.7		0	31.0	56.0		5.9	5.9	3.41	35.61%	3	0%	3.30	R	61.9	Alaska		-25.03	-30.95	2.96	2.96	32.06
21	AL	1,953	1,673	829	4.42	429	383	6	9	2	51.7	46.2	0.7	1.1	0.2	9	S	41.6	56.5	1.9		1	44.3	53.7		5.5	20.4	3.40	52.83%	9	90%	10.16	R	63.9	Alabama	9	5.55	-14.88	10.21	10.21	42.41
22	AR	936	922	1,092	3.84	570	485	15	16	6	52.2	44.4	1.4	1.5	0.5	6	S	45.9	51.3	2.8		1	47.5	49.7		3.2	13.2	2.96	54.03%	6	98%	6.33	R	61.2	Arkansas	6	7.78	-5.44	6.61	6.61	47.20
23	AZ	1,644	1,534	1,156	3.75	545	536	13	49	13	47.1	46.4	1.1	4.2	1.1	8	W	44.7	51.0	4.4		0	44.7	51.0		0.0	7.1	2.88	50.42%	8	59%	2.47	R	55.3	Arizona	8	0.78	-6.28	3.53	3.53	46.72
24	CA	11,489	10,966	2,740	2.41	1476	1084	13	143	24	53.9	39.6	0.5	5.2	0.9	54	W	53.4	41.7	4.9	54	0	55.3	39.8	54	3.8	2.5	1.85	57.66%	54	100%	0.42	D	48.2	California		14.31	11.80	1.25	1.25	56.20
25	CO	1,633	1,741	924	4.19	419	415	9	69	12	45.3	44.9	1.0	7.5	1.3	8	W	42.4	50.8	6.9		1	45.2	48.0		5.6	8.8	3.22	50.24%	8	54%	2.95	B	50.1	Colorado	8	0.43	-8.36	4.39	4.39	45.51
26	CT	1,332	1,460	1,082	3.81	593	408	6	72	3	54.8	37.7	0.6	6.7	0.3	8	E	55.9	38.4	5.6	8	0	56.4	38.0	8	0.9	-0.4	2.93	59.24%	8	100%	-1.10	D	54.9	Connecticut		17.10	17.47	-0.18	0.18	59.26
27	DC	267	202	637	3.19	536	68	30	0	3	84.1	10.7	4.7	0.0	0.5	3	E	85.2	9.0	5.9	3	0	84.1	10.7	3	-2.7	-2.7	2.45	88.74%	3	100%	-1.01	D	46.8	DC		73.47	76.20	-1.37	1.37	90.49
28	DE	352	328	971	3.99	571	364	5	26	5	58.8	37.5	0.5	2.7	0.5	3	E	55.0	41.9	3.1	3	1	58.5	38.4	3	7.1	8.3	3.07	61.07%	3	100%	3.84	D	52	Delaware		21.32	13.06	4.13	4.13	56.74
29	FL	6,006	6,004	1,816	2.97	969	792	10	30	15	53.4	43.6	0.6	1.7	0.8	25	S	48.8	48.8	2.3		1	49.1	48.5	25	0.6	9.8	2.29	55.03%	25	100%	4.52	B	54.6	Florida	25	9.75	-0.01	4.88	4.88	50.00
30	GA	2,827	2,597	1,245	3.61	613	581	20	0	31	49.2	46.7	1.6	0.0	2.5	13	S	43.0	54.7	2.3		1	45.8	51.9		5.6	14.3	2.78	51.34%	13	77%	6.25	R	49.9	Georgia	13	2.57	-11.69	7.13	7.13	44.02
31	HI	340	368	825	4.40	431	330	10	50	4	52.2	40.0	1.2	6.1	0.5	4	W	55.8	37.5	6.7	4	0	52.2	40.0	4	-6.1	-6.1	3.38	56.64%	4	100%	-3.55	D	54.8	Hawaii		12.24	18.33	-3.04	3.04	59.83
32	IA	1,353	1,316	1,004	4.02	463	508	8	18	7	46.1	50.6	0.8	1.8	0.7		M	48.5	48.2	3.2	7	0	47.0	49.7		-3.0	-4.8	3.09	47.68%	7	13%	-2.42	B	60.3	Iowa		-4.48	0.31	-2.40	2.40	50.16
33	ID	500	502	824	4.25	270	489	16	0	49	32.8	59.3	1.9	0.0	5.9		W	27.6	67.2	5.2		1	26.4	68.4		-2.5	13.0	3.27	35.57%	4	0%	5.13	R	60.9	Idaho		-26.58	-39.53	6.48	6.48	29.15
34	IL	5,030	4,742	1,475	3.26	831	572	10	56	6	56.3	38.8	0.7	3.8	0.4	22	M	54.6	42.6	2.8	22	0	57.8	39.4	22	6.4	5.5	2.51	59.23%	22	100%	1.74	D	45.8	Illinois		17.56	12.01	2.77	2.77	56.18
35	IN	2,564	2,199	1,166	3.72	533	603	6	0	24	45.7	51.7	0.5	0.0	2.1		M	41.0	56.6	2.3		1	42.8	54.8		3.6	9.6	2.86	46.92%	12	5%	4.70	R	53.1	Indiana		-6.00	-15.63	4.82	4.82	42.00
36	KS	1,148	1,072	734	4.63	288	412	11	20	3	39.2	56.1	1.5	2.7	0.4		M	37.2	58.0	4.7		0	39.4	55.8		4.4	3.9	3.56	41.14%	6	0%	2.00	R	64.2	Kansas		-16.89	-20.80	1.95	1.95	39.08
37	KY	1,645	1,544	1,134	3.75	473	625	9	22	5	41.7	55.1	0.8	1.9	0.4		M	41.4	56.5	2.1		0	39.2	58.7		-4.4	1.7	2.88	43.08%	8	0%	0.34	R	53.8	Kentucky		-13.40	-15.13	0.86	0.86	42.27
38	LA	2,030	1,766	1,241	3.62	598	610	12	13	8	48.2	49.2	1.0	1.0	0.6		S	44.9	52.6	2.6		0	45.2	52.3		0.6	6.7	2.78	49.50%	9	39%	3.31	R	59.1	Louisiana		-0.97	-7.68	3.35	3.35	46.06
39	MA	2,772	2,703	887	4.08	534	286	8	50	9	60.2	32.2	0.9	5.6	1.0	12	E	59.8	32.5	7.7	12	0	62.0	30.4	12	4.3	0.7	3.14	65.12%	12	100%	0.40	D	54	Massachusetts		27.96	27.30	0.33	0.33	64.79
40	MD	2,178	2,025	849	4.20	518	294	8	27	2	61.0	34.6	0.9	3.2	0.2	10	E	56.6	40.2	3.3	10	1	58.7	38.0	10	4.3	10.0	3.23	63.79%	10	100%	4.44	D	64.9	Maryland		26.38	16.39	5.00	5.00	58.47
41	ME	677	652	993	4.04	470	420	11	84	8	47.3	42.3	1.1	8.5	0.8	4	E	49.1	44.0	6.9	4	0	50.1	42.9	4	2.1	-0.1	3.11	52.81%	4	91%	-1.75	B	66	Maine		5.04	5.11	-0.04	0.04	52.75
42	MI	4,343	4,233	1,636	3.14	875	722	0	0	39	53.5	44.1	0.0	0.0	2.4	18	M	51.3	46.1	2.6	18	0	52.4	45.0	18	2.2	4.2	2.41	54.79%	18	100%	2.21	B	48.4	Michigan		9.35	5.13	2.11	2.11	52.63
43	MN	2,376	2,439	1,172	3.72	532	571	5	57	7	45.4	48.7	0.4	4.9	0.6		M	47.9	45.5	6.6	10	0	47.7	45.8	10	-0.5	-5.7	2.86	48.23%	10	18%	-2.51	B	46.9	Minnesota		-3.33	2.40	-2.87	2.87	51.29
44	MO	2,659	2,360	1,443	3.35	712	687	12	25	7	49.3	47.6	0.8	1.7	0.5	11	M	47.1	50.4	2.5		0	46.2	51.3		-1.8	5.1	2.58	50.89%	11	70%	2.26	B	38.1	Missouri	11	1.73	-3.34	2.54	2.54	48.29
45	MS	1,213	995	781	4.53	344	427	2	6	2	44.0	54.7	0.3	0.8	0.3		S	40.7	57.6	1.7		0	42.3	56.0		3.2	6.3	3.49	44.62%	7	1%	3.34	R	69.7	Mississippi		-10.63	-16.91	3.14	3.14	41.40
46	MT	409	411	900	4.06	288	530	13	64	5	32.0	58.9	1.4	7.1	0.6		W	33.4	58.4	8.2		0	31.8	60.0		-3.2	-1.8	3.12	35.21%	3	0%	-1.36	R	55.9	Montana		-26.89	-25.07	-0.91	0.91	36.34
47	NC	2,995	2,911	1,217	3.65	617	577	7	0	16	50.7	47.4	0.6	0.0	1.3	14	S	43.2	56.0	0.8		1	48.1	51.1		9.8	16.1	2.81	51.68%	14	82%	7.50	B	56.2	North Carolina	14	3.29	-12.83	8.06	8.06	43.54
48	ND	313	288	869	4.08	277	549	16	21	6	31.9	63.2	1.8	2.4	0.7		M	33.1	60.7	6.3		0	32.1	61.7		-2.0	-3.7	3.14	33.54%	3	0%	-1.18	R	68.5	North Dakota		-31.30	-27.60	-1.85	1.85	35.27
49	NE	710	697	966	3.80	287	627	17	33	2	29.7	64.9	1.8	3.4	0.2		M	33.3	62.2	4.5		0	35.3	60.2		4.1	-6.2	2.93	31.40%	5	0%	-3.54	R	50.7	Nebraska		-35.20	-28.99	-3.10	3.10	34.82
50	NH	571	569	1,235	3.63	583	587	6	50	9	47.2	47.5	0.5	4.0	0.7		E	46.8	48.1	5.1		0	48.0	46.9	4	2.4	0.9	2.79	49.83%	4	46%	0.40	B	54.8	New Hampshire		-0.32	-1.27	0.47	0.47	49.33
51	NJ	3,374	3,187	1,569	3.12	922	566	10	63	8	58.8	36.1	0.6	4.0	0.5	15	E	56.1	40.3	3.6	15	1	56.3	40.1	15	0.4	6.9	2.40	61.96%	15	100%	2.64	D	51.8	New Jersey		22.69	15.83	3.43	3.43	58.21
52	NM	647	599	862	4.34	422	389	4	42	5	49.0	45.1	0.5	4.9	0.6	5	W	47.9	47.8	4.2	5	0	45.4	50.4		-5.1	3.8	3.34	52.03%	5	82%	1.05	B	57.5	New Mexico		3.83	0.06	1.88	1.88	50.03
53	NV	641	609	1,001	4.03	490	467	5	32	7	49.0	46.7	0.5	3.2	0.7	4	W	46.0	49.5	4.5		0	49.0	46.5	4	6.0	5.8	3.10	51.20%	4	72%	2.98	B	50	Nevada	4	2.30	-3.55	2.92	2.92	48.14
54	NY	7,004	6,823	2,268	2.57	1342	768	20	127	11	59.2	33.9	0.9	5.6	0.5	33	E	60.2	35.2	4.6	33	0	61.9	33.6	33	3.3	0.3	1.98	63.60%	33	100%	-1.04	D	53.9	New York		25.31	24.98	0.16	0.16	63.09
55	OH	4,823	4,705	1,952	2.88	925	946	14	62	5	47.4	48.5	0.7	3.2	0.3		M	46.5	50.0	3.6		0	47.0	49.5		1.0	2.4	2.22	49.44%	21	35%	0.93	B	44.9	Ohio		-1.08	-3.51	1.22	1.22	48.18
56	OK	1,431	1,234	689	4.56	221	454	10	0	4	32.1	65.9	1.5	0.0	0.6		S	38.4	60.3	1.3		1	36.1	62.7		-4.7	-11.9	3.50	32.74%	8	0%	-6.35	R	64.8	Oklahoma		-33.82	-21.88	-5.97	5.97	38.92
57	OR	1,529	1,534	652	4.99	306	303	1	41	0	47.0	46.5	0.2	6.4	2.2	7	W	47.0	46.5	6.5	7	0	47.0	49.0		-2.4	-2.4	3.84	50.24%	7	54%	0.00	B	53.7	Oregon		0.44	0.44	0.00	0.00	50.24
58	PA	4,988	4,913	1,831	2.97	936	830	12	46	7	51.1	45.3	0.7	2.5	0.4	23	E	50.6	46.4	3.0	23	0	51.0	46.0	23	0.8	1.6	2.29	53.00%	23	98%	0.52	B	48.5	Pennsylvania		5.79	4.17	0.81	0.81	52.15
59	RI	438	409	1,103	3.64	639	334	26	97	7	57.9	30.3	2.4	8.8	0.6	4	E	61.0	31.9	7.1	4	0	61.2	31.7	4	0.4	-1.4	2.80	65.67%	4	100%	-3.05	D	42.7	Rhode Island		27.65	29.08	-0.71	0.71	65.65
60	SC	1,725	1,384	836	4.40	381	431	5	14	5	45.6	51.6	0.6	1.7	0.6		S	40.9	56.8	2.3		1	42.7	55.1		3.5	9.9	3.38	46.92%	8	9%	4.67	R	60.3	South Carolina		-5.98	-15.93	4.97	4.97	41.85
61	SD	311	316	583	5.06	206	368	4	0	5	35.3	63.1	0.7	0.0	0.9		M	37.6	60.3	2.1		0	38.0	59.8		0.9	-5.1	3.89	35.89%	3	0%	-2.23	R	34.4	South Dakota		-27.79	-22.73	-2.53	2.53	38.39
62	TN	2,183	2,076	1,053	3.90	573	458	6	9	7	54.4	43.5	0.6	0.9	0.7	11	S	47.3	51.1	1.6		1	46.2	52.2		-2.2	14.8	3.00	55.58%	11	100%	7.13	R	64.5	Tennessee	11	10.92	-3.86	7.39	7.39	48.04
63	TX	7,005	6,408	852	4.36	422	386	8	30	6	49.5	45.3	0.9	3.5	0.7	32	S	38.0	59.3	2.7		1	38.2	59.1		0.4	25.5	3.35	52.23%	32	84%	11.55	R	61.1	Texas	32	4.23	-21.32	12.77	12.77	39.04
64	UT	829	771	832	3.82	193	583	11	37	8	23.2	70.1	1.3	4.4	1.0		W	26.3	66.8	6.8		0	25.8	67.3		-1.0	-6.4	2.94	24.87%	5	0%	-3.15	R	57.6	Utah		-46.88	-40.49	-3.19	3.19	28.27
65	VA	2,962	2,739	1,559	3.23	757	747	5	38	12	48.6	47.9	0.3	2.4	0.8	13	S	44.4	52.5	3.1		1	45.4	51.5		2.0	8.7	2.48	50.33%	13	58%	4.12	B	48.8	Virginia	13	0.64	-8.04	4.34	4.34	45.85
66	VT	290	294	1,161	3.72	588	478	12	76	7	50.6	41.2	1.0	6.5	0.6	3	E	50.6	40.7	8.7	3	0	50.4	40.9	3	-0.4	-0.5	2.86	55.16%	3	100%	0.01	D	60.3	Vermont		9.47	9.94	-0.23	0.23	55.44
67	WA	2,527	2,489	1,797	2.98	943	725	11	103	15	52.5	40.3	0.6	5.7	0.8	11	W	50.1	44.6	5.3	11	1	52.0	42.7	11	3.7	6.6	2.29	56.53%	11	100%	2.34	B	50.4	Washington		12.13	5.58	3.28	3.28	52.94
68	WI	2,632	2,599	1,145	3.77	543	541	9	48	4	47.4	47.2	0.8	4.2	0.3	11	M	47.8	47.6	4.6	11	0	46.6	48.8		-2.4	0.0	2.90	50.09%	11	52%	-0.41	B	51.7	Wisconsin		0.17	0.22	-0.02	0.02	50.12
69	WV	732	648	792	4.51	348	415	12	15	2	43.9	52.4	1.5	1.9	0.3		E	45.6	51.9	2.5		0	43.3	54.2		-4.5	-2.1	3.47	45.61%	5	3%	-1.65	R	55.8	West Virginia		-8.46	-6.32	-1.07	1.07	46.76
70	WY	219	218	728	4.31	205	487	18	0	18	28.2	66.9	2.5	0.0	2.5		W	27.7	67.8	4.5		0	28.2	67.3		1.0	1.3	3.32	29.62%	3	0%	0.46	R	60.1	Wyoming		-38.74	-40.06	0.66	0.66	29.02
71
72
73
74
75				2000 NEP: How Voted in 1996
76															True Vote -4					Unadjusted 1996
77		Cast	EV	Sample	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Other	DNV	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Other	DNV	Clinton	Diff	MoE	Diff/MoE	Recorded		Clinton	Dole	Perot/Other		1996
78		110,825	538	48,704	23,742	14,567	3,363	1,413	5,619	50.42%	28.65%	6.36%	2.91%	10.40%	53.65%	-3.23%	3.64%	-89%	49.23%		52.64%	37.06%	10.30%		105,013
79					48.75%	29.91%	6.90%	2.90%	11.54%	55,877	31,747	7,051	3,229	11,530							52.55	37.41	11.02
80									97,904	57.07%	32.43%	7.20%	3.30%
81
82	AK	270	3	729	263	261	76	38	91	36%	36%	10%	5%	11%	43%	-7%	3%	-210%	33%		36.8	47.2	16.0	AK	240
83	AL	1,953	9	746	367	276	23	11	69	49%	37%	3%	1%	8%	49%	0%	4%	-7%	43%		51.9	43.7	4.4	AL	1,744
84	AR	936	6	943	504	272	44	30	93	53%	29%	5%	3%	9%	55%	-2%	3%	-61%	54%		56.8	32.3	10.9	AR	949
85	AZ	1,644	10	1,012	457	315	74	28	138	45%	31%	7%	3%	12%	49%	-4%	3%	-119%	47%		46.5	44.3	9.2	AZ	1,489
86	CA	11,489	55	2,118	1,095	617	119	75	212	52%	29%	6%	4%	9%	55%	-3%	2%	-162%	51%		57.0	33.2	9.8	CA	11,079
87	CO	1,633	9	761	355	205	61	27	113	47%	27%	8%	4%	13%	52%	-5%	4%	-152%	44%		45.8	44.1	10.1	CO	1,682
88	CT	1,332	7	945	489	257	88	19	92	52%	27%	9%	2%	9%	53%	-1%	3%	-41%	53%		52.0	35.4	12.6	CT	1,409
89	DC	267	3	630	511	52	8	11	48	81%	8%	1%	2%	7%	81%	0%	3%	10%	85%		85.0	8.2	6.8	DC	239
90	DE	352	3	841	443	212	42	17	127	53%	25%	5%	2%	13%	53%	0%	3%	-6%	52%		53.2	36.4	10.4	DE	293
91	FL	6,006	27	1,370	690	374	95	25	186	50%	27%	7%	2%	12%	50%	0%	3%	7%	48%		55.5	36.2	8.3	FL	5,516
92	GA	2,827	15	999	497	298	63	28	113	50%	30%	6%	3%	10%	51%	-1%	3%	-28%	46%		47.6	43.5	8.9	GA	2,632
93	HI	340	4	792	489	180	38	25	60	62%	23%	5%	3%	7%	58%	4%	3%	125%	57%		58.2	31.0	10.8	HI	361
94	IA	1,353	7	873	410	271	69	15	108	47%	31%	8%	2%	11%	56%	-9%	3%	-263%	50%		46.7	41.5	11.8	IA	1,291
95	ID	500	4	757	274	270	82	22	109	36%	36%	11%	3%	13%	44%	-7%	3%	-215%	34%		33.8	52.1	14.0	ID	502
96	IL	5,030	21	1,062	615	248	60	19	120	58%	23%	6%	2%	10%	56%	2%	3%	70%	54%		56.1	33.5	10.3	IL	4,779
97	IN	2,564	11	1,109	447	308	63	190	101	40%	28%	6%	17%	8%	49%	-8%	3%	-287%	42%		49.6	39.7	10.8	IN	2,367
98	KS	1,148	6	634	247	272	43	8	64	39%	43%	7%	1%	9%	48%	-9%	4%	-247%	36%		38.8	53.2	8.1	KS	1,129
99	KY	1,645	8	976	421	334	70	22	129	43%	34%	7%	2%	12%	51%	-7%	3%	-241%	46%		44.0	46.1	9.9	KY	1,535
100	LA	2,030	9	1,106	556	335	53	42	120	50%	30%	5%	4%	10%	53%	-3%	3%	-107%	52%		48.8	43.6	7.7	LA	1,915
101	MA	2,772	12	760	478	154	53	16	59	63%	20%	7%	2%	7%	58%	4%	3%	129%	61%		60.6	27.7	11.8	MA	2,569
102	MD	2,178	10	731	442	165	38	5	81	60%	23%	5%	1%	10%	56%	5%	4%	136%	54%		54.6	30.5	14.9	MD	2,048
103	ME	677	4	861	444	191	101	35	90	52%	22%	12%	4%	9%	52%	-1%	3%	-26%	52%		51.6	30.8	17.6	ME	626
104	MI	4,343	17	1,284	665	331	94	28	166	52%	26%	7%	2%	11%	54%	-2%	3%	-65%	52%		54.8	34.2	11.0	MI	4,080
105	MN	2,376	10	983	481	271	100	15	116	49%	28%	10%	2%	11%	56%	-7%	3%	-225%	51%		50.7	35.2	14.1	MN	2,259
106	MO	2,659	11	1,279	619	414	70	22	154	48%	32%	5%	2%	11%	55%	-7%	3%	-246%	48%		52.5	34.9	12.5	MO	2,397
107	MS	1,213	6	674	303	240	30	15	86	45%	36%	4%	2%	11%	49%	-4%	4%	-106%	44%		49.7	46.3	3.9	MS	1,069
108	MT	409	3	837	337	314	93	15	78	40%	38%	11%	2%	9%	51%	-11%	3%	-322%	41%		42.3	40.2	17.5	MT	437
109	NC	2,995	15	958	445	308	58	19	128	46%	32%	6%	2%	12%	51%	-4%	3%	-142%	44%		51.2	41.6	7.1	NC	2,897
110	ND	313	3	832	327	320	70	18	97	39%	38%	8%	2%	10%	49%	-10%	3%	-294%	40%		44.2	42.4	13.3	ND	300
111	NE	710	5	879	295	412	73	17	82	34%	47%	8%	2%	9%	45%	-12%	3%	-382%	35%		37.9	49.9	12.2	NE	720
112	NH	571	4	1,126	503	345	92	45	141	45%	31%	8%	4%	11%	49%	-5%	3%	-164%	49%		56.1	34.0	9.8	NH	518
113	NJ	3,374	15	1,243	716	318	67	23	119	58%	26%	5%	2%	9%	52%	5%	3%	197%	54%		59.3	30.2	10.5	NJ	3,251
114	NM	647	5	714	333	222	37	23	99	47%	31%	5%	3%	12%	54%	-8%	4%	-205%	49%		55.0	35.6	9.3	NM	627
115	NV	641	5	873	372	253	86	37	125	43%	29%	10%	4%	13%	48%	-6%	3%	-172%	44%		44.9	41.8	13.3	NV	562
116	NY	7,004	31	1,667	948	379	108	31	201	57%	23%	6%	2%	11%	58%	-1%	2%	-33%	59%		60.7	28.5	10.9	NY	6,830
117	OH	4,823	20	1,496	689	476	118	35	178	46%	32%	8%	2%	11%	52%	-6%	3%	-237%	47%		51.7	37.3	11.0	OH	4,811
118	OK	1,431	7	628	219	258	59	11	81	35%	41%	9%	2%	11%	47%	-13%	4%	-336%	40%		40.6	45.5	13.9	OK	1,379
119	OR	1,529	7	294	172	45	15	55	7	59%	15%	5%	19%	2%	55%	4%	6%	65%	47%		49.4	33.4	17.2	OR	1,462
120	PA	4,988	21	1,481	737	467	87	26	164	50%	32%	6%	2%	10%	55%	-5%	3%	-188%	49%		53.9	35.7	10.5	PA	4,951
121	RI	438	4	1,035	601	191	70	40	133	58%	18%	7%	4%	11%	59%	-1%	3%	-21%	60%		61.8	24.3	13.8	RI	439
122	SC	1,725	8	677	305	227	28	15	102	45%	34%	4%	2%	13%	54%	-9%	4%	-230%	44%		46.5	46.0	7.5	SC	1,479
123	SD	311	3	565	242	227	43	8	45	43%	40%	8%	1%	7%	52%	-9%	4%	-222%	43%		45.9	44.4	9.7	SD	336
124	TN	2,183	11	899	455	287	35	17	105	51%	32%	4%	2%	10%	52%	-2%	3%	-50%	48%		54.2	39.1	6.7	TN	2,133
125	TX	7,005	34	514	275	119	24	15	81	54%	23%	5%	3%	14%	50%	3%	4%	75%	44%		46.2	46.3	7.5	TX	6,210
126	UT	829	5	775	214	351	70	22	118	28%	45%	9%	3%	13%	43%	-15%	3%	-485%	33%		40.0	47.1	12.9	UT	707
127	VA	2,962	13	1,312	615	442	53	28	174	47%	34%	4%	2%	12%	50%	-3%	3%	-106%	45%		53.8	39.2	6.9	VA	2,796
128	VT	290	3	1,038