1988-2016 Presidential Unadjusted Exit Polls / Recorded Vote/ True Vote
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TimestampWho did you vote for in 2000?Sample Question 2
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1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: a 52-41% Democratic margin vs. 48-46% recorded
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8/23/2016 5:00:391
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Richard Charnin
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This workbook contains unadjusted state exit polls for the 1988-2016 Presidential Elections.
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131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116
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E-116= 0.000000.....0001 (115 zeros)
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Data Source: Roper Center UConn
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http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP
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Unadjusted exit polls are based on actual respondent totals.
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Final Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
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The unadjusted exit polls are confirmed in other surveys and independent models..
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https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/electionintegrity
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http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
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True Vote Models
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The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares.
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The TVM closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in each election from 1988-2008. 
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http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htmhttp://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005178.php
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Data Summary
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The Democrats led all 1988-2008 presidential election true vote models and unadjusted exit polls
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- Recorded vote: 48.1 - 46.0%
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- Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 52.1- 41.4%
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- Unadjusted national exit poll: 51.9 - 41.7%
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- True Vote Model 1: 50.2 - 43.2% (previous recorded vote)
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- True Vote Model 2: 51.6 - 41.8% (previous votes cast)
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- True Vote Model 3: 52.5 - 40.9% (previous exit poll)
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- True Vote Model 4: 53.0 - 40.4% (recursive)
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States flipping from the Democrats in the exit poll to the GOP in the recorded vote
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1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT 
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Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls. He lost by 7 million votes,
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1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA 
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Clnton had a 18 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million.
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1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA 
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Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes.
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2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA 
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Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM. 
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2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
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Kerry needed FL or OH to win. He won the national and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.
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2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE 
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Obama had 58% in the state exit polls (exact match to the TVM), a 23 million margin (9.5 recorded) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
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Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls are adjusted to force a match the recorded vote.
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EV
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Presidential Summary364
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(in percent)404
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1988-2008
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1988-2008Total19881992199620002004200820122016
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Votes Cast688,813102,224113,866105,017110,826125,736131,144
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Recorded652,31591,595104,42496,275105,417122,294132,310129,132136,200
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Recorded VoteWeightedAverage
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Democrat48.1547.8945.6443.0149.1848.3848.2852.8751.0348.25
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Republican46.0245.9953.4637.4640.8247.8750.7245.6047.1946.17
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Recorded Margin (RV)2.121.91-7.825.558.600.51-2.407.273.842.08
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State Exit Polls (unadjusted)
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Respondents374,93762,49034,01654,41069,71658,21576,19282,388
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24 states 
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Democrat52.1051.9651.6047.5652.6650.7951.0958.06
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Republican41.3941.3747.3131.6836.9944.3747.5940.29
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Exit Poll Margin (SEP)10.7110.594.2915.8815.676.423.5017.77
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Red Shift4.294.346.065.173.542.962.955.25
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Probability AnalysisTotal198819921996200020042008
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131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-131
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State Exit Poll MoE +Cluster (average)3.60%3.47%4.06%3.48%3.84%3.43%3.31%
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Exit Polls red-shift to GOP232214544344246
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Exit Polls exceeding MoE 135122719172337
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Exit Polls exceeding MoE for GOP131122718162236
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4.59E-37
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Probability of red-shift2.07E-331.21E-048.00E-095.14E-086.56E-031.35E-061.04E-09
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BINOMDISTProbability of exceeding MoE 2.61E-983.57E-104.99E-221.79E-121.97E-105.58E-174.59E-37
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BINOMDISTProbability of exceeding MoE for GOP4.06E-1311.22E-136.94E-301.33E-157.38E-141.11E-154.62E-46
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Pct exceeding MoE47.81%50.00%52.94%35.29%31.37%43.14%70.59%
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National Exit Poll (unadjusted)Average198819921996200020042008
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Respondents71,43614,28711,59615,236n/a13,10813,66017,836
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Weightedpre-elect poll
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