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1 | Timestamp | Who did you vote for in 2000? | Sample Question 2 | ||||||||||||
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4 | 1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: a 52-41% Democratic margin vs. 48-46% recorded | ||||||||||||||
5 | 8/23/2016 5:00:39 | 1 | |||||||||||||
6 | |||||||||||||||
7 | Richard Charnin | ||||||||||||||
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10 | This workbook contains unadjusted state exit polls for the 1988-2016 Presidential Elections. | ||||||||||||||
11 | |||||||||||||||
12 | 131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116 | ||||||||||||||
13 | E-116= 0.000000.....0001 (115 zeros) | ||||||||||||||
14 | Data Source: Roper Center UConn | ||||||||||||||
15 | http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP | ||||||||||||||
16 | |||||||||||||||
17 | Unadjusted exit polls are based on actual respondent totals. | ||||||||||||||
18 | Final Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. | ||||||||||||||
19 | The unadjusted exit polls are confirmed in other surveys and independent models.. | ||||||||||||||
20 | https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/electionintegrity | ||||||||||||||
21 | http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf | ||||||||||||||
22 | True Vote Models | ||||||||||||||
23 | The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. | ||||||||||||||
24 | The TVM closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in each election from 1988-2008. | ||||||||||||||
25 | http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm | http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005178.php | |||||||||||||
26 | |||||||||||||||
27 | Data Summary | ||||||||||||||
28 | The Democrats led all 1988-2008 presidential election true vote models and unadjusted exit polls | ||||||||||||||
29 | - Recorded vote: 48.1 - 46.0% | ||||||||||||||
30 | - Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 52.1- 41.4% | ||||||||||||||
31 | - Unadjusted national exit poll: 51.9 - 41.7% | ||||||||||||||
32 | - True Vote Model 1: 50.2 - 43.2% (previous recorded vote) | ||||||||||||||
33 | - True Vote Model 2: 51.6 - 41.8% (previous votes cast) | ||||||||||||||
34 | - True Vote Model 3: 52.5 - 40.9% (previous exit poll) | ||||||||||||||
35 | - True Vote Model 4: 53.0 - 40.4% (recursive) | ||||||||||||||
36 | |||||||||||||||
37 | |||||||||||||||
38 | States flipping from the Democrats in the exit poll to the GOP in the recorded vote | ||||||||||||||
39 | |||||||||||||||
40 | 1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT | ||||||||||||||
41 | Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls. He lost by 7 million votes, | ||||||||||||||
42 | |||||||||||||||
43 | 1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA | ||||||||||||||
44 | Clnton had a 18 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million. | ||||||||||||||
45 | |||||||||||||||
46 | 1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA | ||||||||||||||
47 | Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes. | ||||||||||||||
48 | |||||||||||||||
49 | 2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA | ||||||||||||||
50 | Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM. | ||||||||||||||
51 | |||||||||||||||
52 | 2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA | ||||||||||||||
53 | Kerry needed FL or OH to win. He won the national and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%. | ||||||||||||||
54 | |||||||||||||||
55 | 2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE | ||||||||||||||
56 | Obama had 58% in the state exit polls (exact match to the TVM), a 23 million margin (9.5 recorded) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll. | ||||||||||||||
57 | |||||||||||||||
58 | Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls are adjusted to force a match the recorded vote. | ||||||||||||||
59 | EV | ||||||||||||||
60 | 358 | ||||||||||||||
61 | 371 | ||||||||||||||
62 | 420 | ||||||||||||||
63 | Presidential Summary | 364 | |||||||||||||
64 | (in percent) | 404 | |||||||||||||
65 | 1988-2008 | ||||||||||||||
66 | 1988-2008 | Total | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | |||||
67 | Votes Cast | 688,813 | 102,224 | 113,866 | 105,017 | 110,826 | 125,736 | 131,144 | |||||||
68 | Recorded | 652,315 | 91,595 | 104,424 | 96,275 | 105,417 | 122,294 | 132,310 | 129,132 | 136,200 | |||||
69 | |||||||||||||||
70 | Recorded Vote | Weighted | Average | ||||||||||||
71 | Democrat | 48.15 | 47.89 | 45.64 | 43.01 | 49.18 | 48.38 | 48.28 | 52.87 | 51.03 | 48.25 | ||||
72 | Republican | 46.02 | 45.99 | 53.46 | 37.46 | 40.82 | 47.87 | 50.72 | 45.60 | 47.19 | 46.17 | ||||
73 | Recorded Margin (RV) | 2.12 | 1.91 | -7.82 | 5.55 | 8.60 | 0.51 | -2.40 | 7.27 | 3.84 | 2.08 | ||||
74 | |||||||||||||||
75 | |||||||||||||||
76 | State Exit Polls (unadjusted) | ||||||||||||||
77 | Respondents | 374,937 | 62,490 | 34,016 | 54,410 | 69,716 | 58,215 | 76,192 | 82,388 | na | 102,702 | ||||
78 | 24 states | ||||||||||||||
79 | Democrat | 52.10 | 51.96 | 51.60 | 47.56 | 52.66 | 50.79 | 51.09 | 58.06 | na | 49.6 | ||||
80 | Republican | 41.39 | 41.37 | 47.31 | 31.68 | 36.99 | 44.37 | 47.59 | 40.29 | na | 43.6 | ||||
81 | Exit Poll Margin (SEP) | 10.71 | 10.59 | 4.29 | 15.88 | 15.67 | 6.42 | 3.50 | 17.77 | na | 6 | ||||
82 | Red Shift | 4.29 | 4.34 | 6.06 | 5.17 | 3.54 | 2.96 | 2.95 | 5.25 | na | 1.96 | ||||
83 | |||||||||||||||
84 | Probability Analysis | Total | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | |||||||
85 | 131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-131 | ||||||||||||||
86 | State Exit Poll MoE +Cluster (average) | 3.60% | 3.47% | 4.06% | 3.48% | 3.84% | 3.43% | 3.31% | |||||||
87 | Exit Polls red-shift to GOP | 232 | 21 | 45 | 44 | 34 | 42 | 46 | |||||||
88 | |||||||||||||||
89 | Exit Polls exceeding MoE | 135 | 12 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 23 | 37 | |||||||
90 | Exit Polls exceeding MoE for GOP | 131 | 12 | 27 | 18 | 16 | 22 | 36 | |||||||
91 | 4.59E-37 | ||||||||||||||
92 | Probability of red-shift | 2.07E-33 | 1.21E-04 | 8.00E-09 | 5.14E-08 | 6.56E-03 | 1.35E-06 | 1.04E-09 | |||||||
93 | BINOMDIST | Probability of exceeding MoE | 2.61E-98 | 3.57E-10 | 4.99E-22 | 1.79E-12 | 1.97E-10 | 5.58E-17 | 4.59E-37 | ||||||
94 | |||||||||||||||
95 | BINOMDIST | Probability of exceeding MoE for GOP | 4.06E-131 | 1.22E-13 | 6.94E-30 | 1.33E-15 | 7.38E-14 | 1.11E-15 | 4.62E-46 | ||||||
96 | Pct exceeding MoE | 47.81% | 50.00% | 52.94% | 35.29% | 31.37% | 43.14% | 70.59% | |||||||
97 | |||||||||||||||
98 | National Exit Poll (unadjusted) | Average | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2008 | 2016 | |||||
99 | Respondents | 71,436 | 14,287 | 11,596 | 15,236 | n/a | 13,108 | 13,660 | 17,836 | n/a | |||||
100 | Weighted | pre-elect poll |