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PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD)
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^^INPUT YOUR OWN ASSUMPTIONS (yellow cells)Input Cells
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Actuals
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Estimates
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Modeling Inputs — 5 Years
FY2026–2027
FY2028–2030Segment build ($B, USD)-2-1012345Implied CAGRs
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Core Marketplace Rev Growth8.00%5.00%Revenue buildDec 2023Dec 2024Dec 2025Dec 2026Dec 2027Dec 2028Dec 2029Dec 2030
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Temu Revenue Growth9.00%5.00%Core Marketplace Rev ($B)$24.7$28.5$31.7$34.2$37.0$39.9$41.9$44.06.79%
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Duoduo Grocery Rev Growth14.00%10.00%Temu Revenue ($B)$5.3$11.8$21.4$23.3$25.4$27.7$29.1$30.67.38%
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Normalized FCF Margin (WC-adjusted % rev)15.00%19.00%Duoduo Grocery Rev ($B)$6.0$7.3$8.6$9.8$11.2$12.7$14.0$15.412.38%
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Cash Tax Rate (% of EBIT-equiv)23.00%Total Revenue ($B)$36.0$47.6$61.7$67.4$73.6$80.4$85.0$90.07.84%
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Net Cash + Investments / ADS ($)$42.00Normalized FCF ($B)$4.3$6.7$9.9$10.1$11.0$12.1$16.2$17.111.55%
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 (already net of trap discount, Otherwise, $51 per ADS)
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Share Inputs
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Current Stock Price$86.00
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Annual Share Count Growth / Decline0.00%Shares Outstanding (millions)1,4211,4501,4801,4801,4801,4801,4801,480
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Normalized FCF Margin %11.94%14.08%16.05%15.00%15.00%15.00%19.00%19.00%
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Normalized FCF Per Share ($/sh)$3.03$4.62$6.69$6.83$7.46$8.15$10.92$11.5511.55%
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PriceIRR
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Summary StatsDiscount Rate12.00%$60.0024.58%
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Implied Total Revenue CAGR (5yr)7.84%Margin of Safety Discount20.00%$80.0015.93%
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Implied FCF/Share CAGR (5yr)11.55%Operating Fair Value / Share$78.34$100.0012.48%
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Implied Weighted Avg Exit Multiple12x(+) Net Cash & Investments / ADS$42.00$120.008.46%
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Net Cash + Inv / ADS ($, incl.)$42.00Total Fair Value (incl. cash)$120.34$140.005.16%
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Intrinsic Value Target (w/ MoS)$96.27$160.002.39%
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Implied Upside vs Current Price39.93%$200.00-2.08%
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Implied IRR from Current Price15.93%
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Notes
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Segment split (Core / Temu / Grocery) is ESTIMATED — PDD does not disclose it. FY2025 anchors: Core ~$31.7B, Temu ~$21.4B, Grocery ~$8.6B (RMB @ 7.0).
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Cash per ADS is entered AFTER your trap discount. ~$63B gross ÷ 1,480m ADS ≈ $43 gross; bear haircuts it, bull keeps full.
Range of Exit Multiples Analysis (P / Norm. FCF Per Share, FY2030E)
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FY2030 P/FCF MultipleWeighting
Present Value / Share
IRR Inputs —FY2026FY2027FY2028FY2029FY2030 + Exit
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5x5.00%$32.78
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7x10.00%$45.89-$60.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$180.07
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9x17.50%$59.00-$86.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$180.07
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11x20.00%$72.11-$100.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$180.07
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13x20.00%$85.23-$120.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$180.07
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15x12.50%$98.34-$140.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$180.07
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17x7.50%$111.45-$160.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$180.07
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19x5.00%$124.56-$200.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$180.07
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21x2.50%$137.67
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Weighting Balance Check:100.00%
← Initial investment (negative = outlay at entry price)
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← Yr1–4 dividends (PDD pays none) + Yr5 exit value (multiple × FCF/sh + net cash)
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