SMS Immunization Reminders CEA calculation - Shared Copy
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Orange cells are key estimates.
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Other cells have at least one supporting source noted in comments or source section of that cell.
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Efficacy of vaccines
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DTP1DTP2DTP3MeaslesRotavirus 1Rotavirus 2Rotavirus 3Hib 1Hib 2Hib 3Hep B2Hep B3
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Pertussis0.3332396750.352842010.078409335
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Diphtheria0.41409550.4384630.097432
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Measles0.88275883
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Rotavirus0.23364240.24738461590.05497216
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Hib0.470.280.2
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Hep B0.40.25
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Excluded vaccines: BCG and Hep B1 (adminstered at birth), all polio vaccines (disease eliminated), tetanus (pre-natal and post age 5), Japanese encephalitis (regional)
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Counterfactual immunization coverage increase caused by sms reminders for immunization per child reached
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DTP1DTP2DTP3MeaslesRotavirus 1Rotavirus 2Rotavirus 3Hib 1Hib 2Hib 3Hep b2Hep b3
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0.03150.03150.0315
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0.03150.03150.0315
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0.0315
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0.03150.03150.0315
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0.03150.03150.0315
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0.03150.0315
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The estimates above are the average effect of the four strongest studies divided by four because we expect the rate at scale to be lower than the effects found by the studies for a variety of reasons.
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Average fatality rate for immunization preventable diseases per completely unvaccinated Indian child
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Source
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Pertussis0.000609069
GiveWell private spreadsheet
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Diptheria0.000022100
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ with settings Cause, Deaths, India, 2013, <5, both and combined with informal estimate of Indian under 5 population as well as under 5 mortality rate in India as 1022.12 per 100,000
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Measles0.001138955
GiveWell private spreadsheet
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Rotavirus0.000262000
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ with settings Cause, Deaths, India, 2013, <5, both and combined with informal estimate of Indian under 5 population as well as under 5 mortality rate in India as 1022.12 per 100,000 numbers combined with "Rotavirus is the leading cause of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in India, accounting for approximately 40% of all diarrhoea cases requiring treatment.[5, 6, 7]" http://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/ivac/resources/factsheets/Diarrhoea%20in%20India%20leaflet.pdf Note that this conflicts by about an order of magnitude by fugure implied by section 3.1 of http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X14003429
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Hib0.000369031
Estimate uses that Hib causes 7.2*10^4 <5 Indian deaths on a population that is 0% immunized (http://www.who.int/immunization/diseases/hib/GBD_Hib.pdf?ua=1), with an annual birth cohort of 2.7*10^7.
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Hep B0.000709091
Estimated Hep B causes 7.8*10^4 premature Indian deaths annually on a 1.1*10^9 population that is 0% immunized, with an annual birth cohort of 2.7*10^7 and no discount applied for Hep B deaths likely occuring after 5 years of age.
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Immunization preventable deaths averted by increased immunization coverage per child reached
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DTP1DTP2DTP3MeaslesRotavirus 1 Rotavirus 2Rotavirus 3Hib 1Hib 2Hib 3Hep B2Hep B3
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Pertussis0.0000063934276020.0000067695116010.000001504335901
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Diptheria0.00000028827258230.00000030523601750.0000000678272868
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Measles0.00001026160705
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Rotavirus0.0000019282507270.0000020416652350.0000004536852365
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Hib0.0000054635027710.0000032548527140.000002324894796
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Hep B0.0000089345453650.000005584090853
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Total lives saved per child reached
0.00005557570574
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Note
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Estimated cost per child reached
$0.25
This estimate is informed by the main studies on sms immunization reminders as well as conversations with Immunize India.
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Cost per life saved$4,498
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CEA estimate
Notes of factors not taken into account