usdx weakened (90), it was 75 during the QE in 2008; it was 100 in Mar before the QE

domestic vs foreign price level

domestic prices keep rising (pre-corona rate), imports stable (get relatively cheaper)

level of economic activity

continued claims at 5M, still highest in history (we'll have printing)

nonspeculative capital flow

2020 - mar/apr inflow, then net outflow (we'll have printing)

negative (we'll have printing)

negative (we'll have printing)

Where the debts are moving

getting paid; debts grow

Where the currency is moving

depreciating. the exports don't get better, BOP isn't getting closed, World's PP doens't get better, the IR can't be increased (debts will get destroyed, exports even more), capital outflows continue

Money flow from more risky to less risky or vice versa?

seems like to more risky (bond yields increase)

Confidence & Personal Income

Continuing Jobless

Disposable Personal Income

Unemployment (not seas adj)

Unemployment (seas adj)

Consumer Confidence

Consumer Sentiment

Spending / production

Business Earnings

Companies State

Industrial Production

Corporate Profits

Manuf New Orders Durable Goods

Manuf Production

Capacity Utilization

if sales fell, earnings fell less, the difference is in salaries. sales fell -> cascades down

Manuf Real Output (lag)

Company Earnings (quarterly)

Equity Implied Volatility (3M, at the money)

high = expected vola

Aggregate Corporate Spread

high = debt squeeze

House Price Index

big spread = squeeze

big spread = squeeze

low e/a = shaky, hesitant to lend

low t1c/a = shaky, hesitant to lend

rise? consumers in squeeze; banks hesitant to lend

rise? consumers in squeeze; banks hesitant to lend

rise? businesses in squeeze; banks hesitant to lend

high debt svc payments as % of income -> higher burden

less loans = more squeeze

Sums all of Feds liquidity facilities (Balance sheet/QE, Bank term funding program, bank deposits at fed) minus reverse Repos. Tends to correlate with bubbly market.

Domestic vs foreign price level

Trade Weighted Dollar Index

Canada -> USA exports as % of GDP

USA Tariffs on Canada affects 20% of Canada's GDP

USA -> Canada exports as % of GDP

Retaliatory Canada tariffs on the US only affect 1.2% of US GDP

Mexico -> USA exports as % of GDP

USA Tariffs on Mexico affects 26% of Mexico's GDP

USA -> Mexico exports as % of GDP

Retaliatory Mexico tariffs on the US only affect 1.2% of US GDP

China -> USA exports as % of GDP

USA Tariffs on China affects 2.5% of China's GDP

USA -> China exports as % of GDP

Retaliatory China tariffs on the US only affect 0.5% of US GDP

nonspeculative capital flow

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current US$) - yearly

Foreign direct investment, net outflows (BoP, current US$) - yearly

Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$)

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP)

Foreign direct investment, net outflows (% of GDP)

Rest of the world - lending / borrowing

Balance on Capital Account

Retirement Inflows/Outflows to Stock Market

As boomers retire, they will draw down savings from the stock market

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2011/august/boomer-retirement-us-equity-markets/