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AUTO1 Group (AG1) — Valuation Model
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Scenario ComparisonBear CaseBase CaseBull Case
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Implied Total Revenue CAGR (5Y)6.8%13.9%18.6%
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Implied Gross Profit CAGR (5Y)7.0%18.2%25.9%
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Implied Adj. EBITDA CAGR (5Y)(2.8%)27.9%43.2%
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2030E Adj. EBITDA Margin (% rev)13.0%31.0%40.0%
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Retail % of Gross Profit (2030E)35.9%39.4%43.2%
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Weighted Avg Exit Multiple11.8x20.3x23.9x
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Fair Value, No MOS (€/sh)€4.36€42.13€89.71
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Fair Value, with MOS (€/sh)€3.48€33.70€71.77
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Upside vs Current Price(83.4%)40.4%241.8%
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5Y IRR from Current Price(27.0%)11.9%33.7%
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Current Price (€)€24.00
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