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Scope of analysisNotes
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Unit of analysis (full organization or program of a larger organization)No Lean Season
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Revenue analysis 'as of' dateJune 30, 2017
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End date of the analysis: GiveWell's next allocation decisionNovember 30, 2018
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Date by which funds need to be received (or committed) for them to impact plans prior to GiveWell's next funding allocationJune 30, 2018We make the analysis period 1 year for simplicity.
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Funds on handAmountNotes
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Uncommitted, unreserved funds (available for 2018)$400,000No Lean Season told us that its only non-GiveWell-directed funding was a grant from the Global Innovation Fund (GIF) and $100,000 from Y Combinator. No Lean Season was short on funds for the 2017/18 program year, so we assume that Y Combinator funds will be spent in 2017. Regarding the GIF grant, No Lean Season told us, "You can assume that roughly $400K of global management costs in 2018 are already covered, and that half of the funds for Indonesia [$657,750] are available (but were given assuming that they would be matched with new funds from GiveWell)." (Email to GiveWell, October 17, 2017)
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Projected revenueValue from same period in previous yearAre there any reasons why last year's revenue is not a reasonable projection for next year (ignoring variation in GiveWell-influenced funding)?Projection (before GiveWell's 2017 recommendation)Notes
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Total revenue for No Lean Season, between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017$3,867,586-Source for data from prior period: files.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/No_Lean_Season/Evidence_Action_2016-2017_revenue_and_expenditures.xlsx
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Total GiveWell-influenced funding that reached the organization between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017$1,687,500-Source: https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants
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Projected revenue from donors who are not influenced by GiveWell's research, between July 1, 2017 and June 30, 2018$2,180,086-$0No Lean Season told us that its only sources of revenue to date, other than GiveWell-directed funding, were the Global Innovation Fund ($2.5 million, which excluding Indonesia pilot/RCT costs is $1.9 million) and Y Combinator ($100,000). It is pursuing other funding sources, but it is unclear how likely they are. (Email to GiveWell, October 17, 2017)
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Funding held by GiveWell as of June 30, 2017 for supporting No Lean Season--$0
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Projected revenue from donors who give based on GiveWell's top charity list, but do not follow our recommendation for marginal funding, between July 1, 2017 and June 30, 2018--$50,000GiveWell maintains both a list of all top charities that meet our criteria and a recommendation for which charity or charities to give to to maximize the impact of additional donations, given cost-effectiveness of remaining funding gaps. In our experience, when we recommend a new top charity (but don't make it the recommendation for additional donors), charities receive ~$50,000 to $200,000 from donors other than Good Ventures.
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[For programs that are part of a larger org] Funding expected for the program from parent organization's unrestricted fundingUnknown-$0Source: files.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/No_Lean_Season/Evidence_Action_2016-2017_revenue_and_expenditures.xlsx. Evidence Action plans to transfer $750,000 to the Beta program in 2017, of which No Lean Season is a part, "to cover the Beta and G-United negative balances at 6/30/17 as well as to cover the ongoing monthly operating costs should fundraising efforts not be successful" (sheet "Unrestricted commitments"). No Lean Season had a large positive balance as of 6/30/17, so our understanding is the unrestricted funds were to cover other Beta costs (particularly the G-United progam which had a negative balance). Evidence Action also projects allocating $150,000 to Beta in 2018 (sheet "Unrestriced forecasts"); we have assumed that this will be used for the "the ongoing monthly operating costs" mentioned in the context of the 2017 funds, but have not investigated further given the relatively small amount.
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