Rough Target Malaria cost-effectiveness calculation
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QuantityEstimateSourceLinkNote
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Size of Open Phil grant to support Target Malaria$18,700,000.00Open Phil
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Rough cost per life saved by donating to AMF$7,500.00
GiveWell 2016 calculation, linked spreadsheet, 'Bed Nets' sheet, B78:80
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gVbwg7Og9CIekG-9r2J0lyolNILQ_yDWbEmR7OimCKs/edit?usp=sharing
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Projected number of lives saved by donating this amount to AMF2493Calculation
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Malaria deaths per day in Sub-Saharan Africa1717
IHME Global Burden of Disease Report
http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool?params=querytool-permalink/c32c495f8c326bceb9a9232208fd73b0
This estimate is somewhat higher than the WHO estimate for the same quantity; our understanding is that GiveWell thinks the IHME estimate is more reliable
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Discount for several factors10Open Phil
The current mortality rate of malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa is roughly 1,700 people per day. We expect that money spent now that speeds up deployment of gene drives by one day would produce less expected value than simply “1,700 lives saved” because:
* It seems likely that gene drives will not be released for about 10 years, and it would likely take many more years for them to eradicate malaria. At a 3% discount rate, the value of money spent today for benefits in 10 years would be reduced by 25%; at a 5% discount rate, after 17 years the value would be reduced by about 60%.
* The malaria burden is likely to be smaller in 10 years than it is today. The Global Burden of Disease report (IHME, Global Burden of Disease) estimates that deaths from malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa have fallen from over 1 million in 2004 to 627,000 in 2015. It is our understanding that a significant portion of this reduction was due to the mass distribution of insecticide-treated bednets, and it seems plausible that deaths from malaria could be reduced by nearly 50% over the next 10 years thanks to the continued distribution of nets. The Roll Back Malaria Partnership aims to reduce malaria mortality by 75% from 2015 to 2025. While these factors indicate that the malaria burden is likely to be lower in 10 years, it is also possible that other factors, e.g. increasing insecticide resistance among mosquitoes, may hinder progress in this area.
* It remains to be seen whether gene drives will succeed in greatly reducing the burden of malaria, whether Target Malaria will have the first working gene drives, and whether it will receive regulatory approval and public acceptance to deploy them.
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Estimated deaths averted per day of timeline acceleration171.7Calculation
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Number of days of timeline acceleration required to equal lives saved via AMF
14.52Calculation
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