FB365 Charlie Saponara Player Notes 2012
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GrandersonCurtisNYYMechanical adjustment late in 2010 season translated to improvement vs LHP in 2011. Hit .264 in breakout season, so regression could spell .240-.250
CanoRobinsonNYYWalk rate regressed to career levels, leading to drop in OBP. CT skills remain rock solid, but low FB% means he may not crack 30 HR mark.
GardnerBrettNYYBABIP went from .340 to .303, but elitie speed suggests that BABIP could rise in 2012. Struggles vs LHP limit BA upside and may but PT, thus SB totals.
RodriguezAlexNYYHasn't played over 140 games since 2007. Injuries/age have led to 2 straight years of low LD%, high GB%, limiting HR upside. Low CT%/slowing bat speed limits upside as well.
TeixeiraMarkNYY.263 BABIP in 2010 was supposed to adjust, but actually regressed as FB% stayed high. Skills still present at 32, so upside remains. Could be a nice value on draft day.
SwisherNickNYYActually maintained solid LD, CT%, but didn't see the results in BABIP. LD% Splits indicate regression as LHB may have been unlucky. Look for rebound in contract year.
MartinRussellNYYCareer high HR/FB rate on top of heavy GB% indicate 2011 power not likely to repeat. Limited upside and durability risk.
JeterDerekNYYOnce healthy in the 2nd half, Jeter looked reborn hitting .327/.383/.428 with a .388 BABIP. That BABIP won't stick over a full season. At age 37, skills limited, but still hanging around.
JonesAndruwNYYLimited skills against RHP, but can still hit LHP well. Re-upped with Yanks and could see decent PT in limited platoon with Brett Gardner. Some AL-only value for HRs.
MonteroJesusSEAImpressive MLB debut late in 2011, but small sample size renders stats meaningless. Skills say upside at the plate is big for POS and should get enough PT at C for eligibility in 2012. Only 22, so limit expectations.
ChavezEricNYYSeems like Chavez should be about 38 years old, but at age 34 he's only a part-time player with a chance for ABs against RHP.
CervelliFranciscoNYYCervelli's ability to spray line-drives means he has some BA upside in AL-only formats, but he has almost no power on top of PT questions against Martain and Montero.
DickersonChrisNYYYears ago, Dickerson displayed some power/speed upside, but high K-rates and issues against LHP offer little upside at this point in his career.
LairdBrandonNYYMade some prospect noise after a decent 2010 season at Double-A, but a lack of plate discipline and only medium power mean is upside is quite low, even at a prime fantasy POS.
NunezEduardoNYYNunez has some intriguing speed/contact skills, but there are two things holding him back at the moment: 1) PT and 2) poor plate discipline. Should his PT boost due to an injury, 30-40 SB is possible.
ZobristBenTBA bounce back in BABIP and power shows us that 20/20 skills remain. Good plate discipline limits risk, but don't pay for a major progression either.
LongoriaEvanTBAn oblique injury cost him time early and an extremely unlucky BABIP followed. With almost no change in plate discipline/batted-ball/powe skills, and at age 26, healthy Longo should break out again in 2012.
UptonB.J.TBBig Sept may have been fueled by .424 BABIP, but such streaks are well within skill-set. Unfortunately, whiffs are still an issue and limit BA upside. Power/speed skills worth invseting in at age 27 and in contract yr.
JoyceMattTBOpportunity led to plenty of PT in first half breakout, which was aided by an inflated BABIP. Huge 2nd half regression was predictable. Still, can't hit lefties, which limits upside.
KotchmanCaseyTB18% LD%, 56% GB% and poor speed indicate that .335 BABIP in 2011 was a fortunate. The Rays have not jumped at the chance to resign him, which tells you everything you need to know.
JenningsDesmondTBInjuries hampered him as a prospect, but skill-set is that of a more patient/powerful Carl Crawford. 22 HR/39 SB between AAA /MLB in 2011. Learning curve could hinder BA, but skills for stardom are there.
RodriguezSeanTBThe HR/SB skills are still there, but S-Rod's tendency to swing and miss too often have kepth both skills in check. Solid defensive skills give him PT upside, which still makes him end-game worthy at 2B, 3B, SS.
FuldSamTBSmall sample size waiver heros are fun…for a while. The Legend of Sam Fuld faded fast after a big start to 2011. The CT/SB skills are still there, but now he's blocked by the younger, better Jennings.
DamonJohnnyFAWhile Damon still displays fine LD/CT skills, he is having to make up for declining bat speed by guessing more and as a result chasing more bad pitches. Value will depend on PT, but more downside than upside.
ShoppachKellyBOSThe 21 HRs he hit in 2008 are nothing more than a HR/FB inflated memory at this point. Now in Boston, he must find PT with Salty and Lavarnway in house. No value here.
JohnsonElliotTBDefense is his calling card, his offense is the 1-800 number that charges you to listen to a voice message from Alyssa Milano. In other words, it's just not worth it to even consider dialling.
JasoJohn SEAAfter showing promising plate discipline skills in the minors and in 404 PAs in 2010, things fell apart in 2011. However, a new opportinuty in SEA should lead to plenty of PT. Huge issues vs. LHP limit upside.
RuggianoJustinTBA little pop, a little speed, but far from someone that will consistently contribute at the major league level.
GuyerBrandonTBWhile there is upside for 15/15 in his bat, the plate discipline/contact skills just aren't there. He may platoon with Joyce, hit a few HRs and steal a few bases, but keep expectations down.
ChirinosRobinsonTBA decent catching prospect, but at age 27 it's time to lose the prospect label. His drop in production at AAA last season is a concern and he'll need the PT to make an impact. AL-only C2 at best.
LobatonJoseTBThere's not much upside in Lobaton's bat, but he's shown enough ability to draw walks that he might be rosterable in deeeeep AL-only, OBP formats.
LopezFelipeFASome players fade faster than most and, at age 31, Lopez is probably looking at a minor league chance at best with a real chance that he ends up watchiing games from home in 2012.
RamirezMannyOAKOne of the most feared hitters of his generation has become nothing more than a source of negative storylines of late. Still looking at a 50 game suspention for PED use. No need to consider on draft day.
JohnsonDanCWSPerhaps a just a slugging quad-A player at this point in his career, Johnson still brings good plate discipline and power, but has stuggled in MLB opportinuties. Skills show upside in HR/OBP for pot waiver watch.
BrignacReidTBWith limited power and speed, Brignac kills any other possible upside with high whiff and chase rates. Such poor skills might work if he hit 25-plus home runs, but that's not the reality here.
EllsburyJacobyBOSDidn't see that coming did you? Neither did I. Neither did anyone! Ellsbury did make a slight mechanical adjustment to help with loft off the bat, but it's asking a lot for a repeat in HR/FB rate in 2012. Don't reach.
PedroiaDustinBOSNow smack-dab in the middle of his prime, Pedroia should continue to produce at the plate and in 2012, though 2011 might have been his career year, so a small (very small) regression is likely.
GonzalezAdrianBOSA-Gonz hit for more power away from Fenway in '11 which says a lot (he SLGd .516 at home and .579 oaway). More HR pot in '12, especially since recovery from shoulder surgery tempered power last April.
OrtizDavidBOSFocused less on hitting homers and more on contact in 2011. Ortiz lowered his K%, raised his CT% and even hit leftied better. At age 36, however, don't bet on a repeat. New approach actually limits HR upside.
YoukilisKevinBOSA plethera of injuries affected Youk in 2011 and, given his age, body-type and the demands of playing 3B everyday, health has to be real concern for '12. Good upside if healthy, but keep concerns in mind.
ScutaroMarcoBOS While most of the Sox were scuffling in Sept., Scutaro was busy hitting .387/.438/.581. However, his age position could lead to durrability issues at this point. Valuable fill-in for mixed leagues.
SaltalamacchiaJarrodBOSThe potential for 20 HRs is real, but a ton of whiffs and Ks on top of poor plate discipline = low AVG/OBP. Inability to hit from the right side limits PT upside, especially with Lavarnway/Shoppach in the mix.
ReddickJoshOAKTrade to OAK should lead to PT, but upside is limited. His Triple-A numbers are quite unimpressive (.234/.300/.449) and he only hit .244/.293/.389 in the 2nd half of '11. Upside for .275/20 HR, but not to be expected.
SuttonDrewATLA 20/20 season in Double-A back in 2009 put him on the fantasy radar and his plate discipline skills suggested an MLB breakout was possible. Now, however, his opportinuties seem more limited than ever.
AvilesMikeBOSWith a little BABIP luck, Aviles could have some value given his multi-position eligibility. However, his lack of plate discipline has been his downfall. Add to his list of question marks where and how much he will play.
LowrieJedHOUNow the "everyday" SS in Houston, but can he stay healthy enough to play everyday? Plate discipline skills took a downturn in '11 and 50% career FB% not good for hit skill set. Struggles as LHB worsen his case.
CrawfordCarlBOSAs a reminder that players are indeed human beings, I give you Carl Crawford cira 2011. Out of the quiet comfort of TB and into the fire of BOS. Hamsting issues hurt SBs. Should bounce back in '12 at discounted price.
McDonaldDarnellBOSMild skill-set, mild numbers and mild opportunity = ….sorry, I just fell asleep for a second.
LavarnwayRyanBOSNot a lot of people were high on Lavarnway as a prospect, but the dude just kept on hitting. Now, some think he'll be good enough at C to stick. Salty can't hit LHP, Lavarnway can. PT will be limited, draft accordingly.
IglesiasJoseBOSDefense will be what gets him to the bigs and allows him to stay. However, he's probably never going to make much of a fantasy impact with the bat.
JacksonConorFAHealth and lack of performance have eliminated what little fantasy value Jackson has had in the past. Skills suggest that a .290-.300 season is not impossible, but even in that scenario there'd be no pop behind it.
CameronMikeWASSigned a minor league deal with WAS and at best becomes a 4th OF. Skills are eroded, though he might smack a few out of the park.
BautistaJoseTORUnlike his breakout '10, Bautista's numbers fell off in the 2nd half of '11. Given low LD%, high FB%, I wouldn't put stock in .309 BABIP from '11. 40-plus HR? Sure, but risk in AVG is high.
EscobarYunelTORFirst full season in TOR and turned in numbers in line with what he'd done throughout career minus 2010. Heavy GB% should continue to play well on TOR turf. In line for a familiar season.
LawrieBrettTORBig numbers in small MLB sample last season might overvalue '12 expectations. Skills are there for stardom, but only 22 and yet to face 1st MLB slump. Still, 3Bs with 20/20 potential are rare.
ArencibiaJ.P.TORHuge power comes with huge FB% and K%, which makes the chances of him even approaching .250 quite low. His initials might actually mean Just Power.
EncarnacionEdwinTORWith Lawrie as the everyday 3B in '12, EE might just finally find himself in his natural position…DH. 2nd half breakout (.291/.382/.504) along w/ good CT% and low K% shows his potential. Once again a late round flier.
MolinaJoseTBWhen looking at Molina's .281 AVG from '11, just keep in mind that he's still Jose Molina. It took a .363 BABIP for that to happen. He'll mentor a couple youg-ish catchers in TB, so leave him alone and let him do his job.
ThamesEricTORGood raw power gives Thames some upside, but he has a couple of issues to overcome first: His plate discipline leaves much to be desired and he'll have to greatly improve against LHB to avoid a platoon.
JohnsonKellyTORKJ has been anything but consistent throughout his career. After a breakout '10, his K% spikes along with a sharp drop in CT% and huge fallout against LHP. Still hit 21 HR and stole 16 bags. Upside for a late pick.
McDonaldJohnARIHow dedicated am I to fantasy baseball? I actually projected John McDonald.
LindAdamTORLind did good to bring his K% back down after a spike in '10, but he hit for almost no power vs LHP. Outside of '09, he hasn't done much vs LHP, which limits upside and might force a platoon. '09 now well behind him.
SniderTravisTORStruggles with CT% and K% landed Snider back in Triple-A where he traded power for CT%. At 24, there is still upside, but a career K% of 37% vs LHP is ugly, albeit in limited PAs. A lot of work to be done here.
McCoyMikeTORWhile McCoy has put up good MiLB numbers in recent years, keep in mind his age, 31. He's a utility man with speed to steal 30-plus bags, but he has not path to PT. If opportinuty arises, might get some cheap SBs.
PattersonCoreyFAAs much as he has tried to get us to believe in him again by a hot streak here or there, we know better. Avoid, obviously.
NixJaysonNYYSigned a minor league deal with NYY as depth at 3B should A-Rod go down with another injury. Even at that, he's not next in line. There's still some pop in his bat, but that's pretty much irrelevant at this point.
TeahenMarkTORThe Jays took on Teahen's contract so that they could acquire Colby Rasmus. He has no clear path to PT in TOR. Skills have eroded anyway.
RiveraJuan LADAt lest he can say that he was a part of the Napoli trade!
CooperDavidTORAfter struggling at Double-A for 2 yrs, broke out to the tune of .364/.439./.535 at Triple-A Vegas. His swing is more LD oriented, so power might limited. Blocked by Lind right now, but that could change w/ Lind slump.
LoewenAdamNYMFormer 1st round pick (4th overall) as a pitcher and once ranked as the 13th best prospect in the game. His pitching career is over, but he's attempting to Ankiel himself as an OF. Some pop, but unlikely to make impact.
DavidRajaiTORInjured his ankle in early April, then experienced a season of inconsistencies. By mid-August he had suffered a torn hamstring and the Jays had added Colby Rasmus. He'll need to find PT. Still 50 SB upside.
RasmusColbyTORHigh FB%, low CT% caught up with him in '11, but cutting down on IFFB% could go a long way to a bounceback. Cut down K% in '11 and talent still there for 25/15 season. If he's around late, pounce.
HillAaronARIFar removed from '09 glory, but making small strides in right direction (LD/FB%). SBs came out of nowhere, so don't expect a repeat. Look for another small progression in AVG/power and take a flier late.
HardyJ.J.BALHardy was finally 100% again and it showed with 30 bombs. HR/FB rate was a career high and below average plate discipline suggest that '11 might have been his peak. Injury risk still lingering, so draft accordinly.
WietersMattBALThey say sometimes catchers progress slower than other position players. Wieters has progresses in K% and ISO every season in the bigs. He won't be 26 until late May. The prime is coming and it will be glorious!
JonesAdamBALJust now hitting prime yrs. His raw skills, however, mask some prettty horrible plate discipline. That poor discipline leaves a lot of room for risk, so don't simply expect another progression. High GB% limits HR upside.
MarkakisNickBALTinkered with his stance a little in '11, perhaps due to big drop in AVG/SLG vs LHP. Eilite CT skills suggest he could still figure things out in the power dept, but ISO trending down since '08. Room for value at right price.
AndinoRobertBALNever showed much in the minors, but was a surprise asset for the O's in '11. Multi-position eligibility is nice, but upside is limited. Pass outside of AL-only leagues.
ReimoldNolanBALThe skills are very intrugiing: Solid CT%, low K% and a good eye at the plate plus a .184 career ISO. Hits RHP/LHP roughly the same. Only a .276 career MiLB hitter though. More of an asset in OBP lgs, 25 HR upside.
LeeDerrekFALee exploded in the 2nd half, as he has done over the past 3 yrs. There's still enough skill here for a .270/25 HR season, but it seems unlikely, given his age, that we can count on a full season of avoiding injury.
ReynoldsMarkBALStarted '11 very slow in the HR dept., hitting only 7 HR in April-May. Then, hit 8 HR each month from June-Aug and 6 in Sept. While you simply can't count on anything AVG wise, 45-plus HRs in '12 is not impossible.
RobertsBrianBALInjuries have held Roberts to only 98 games over the past two seasons. Unfortunately, his latest was a concussion, which makes it impossible to predict when or if he'll return. At age 34, saddly, skills may not return.
GuerreroVladimirFAIn '10, Vlad somewhat of a career resurgence in TEX. However, his slowing bat speed finally caught up to his hacktastic ways. It might be worth a late round flyer just to see if huge drop in HR/FB rate was a fluke.
ScottLukeTBScott's season came to an end with shoulder surgery in late July. Keep tabs on his recovery news this spring. At age 33/34 in 2012, and with the surgically repaired shoulder, upside (basically '10) seems limited.
DavisChrisBALCT% is among the worst in the league, Mark Reynolds bad, but without the Reynolds plate discipline. Fresh start in BAL, where he should get an extended look. Upside for 30 HR, but w/ very low AVG, risk outweighs.
BellJoshBALHit .216 vs LHP in second shot at Triple-A. Not a fan of the swing. Strikeouts have and will be a problem going forward. May smack a HR here or there, but not a regular.
PieFelixFA.186 career vs LHP and hasn't done enough vs RHP to warrant a starting job.
CabreraMiguelDETYou know a player's got some skills when you can comfotably project a SLG of .590 or above. There's 40 HR potential in his bat. Don't bet on 40 HRs, but they're in there.
AvilesAlexDET10 Breakout may have him slightly overvalued. Power game is legit, but don't expect .366 BABIP again. Regression in AVG could land him in the .270s. Still one of the more solid options at C, just don't reach.
PeraltaJhonnyDETCompletely overhauled approach since joining DET, more CT%, less Ks. 2yr LD% suggests BA won't completely fall off, but .325 BABIP from '11 may not hold. FB% increase suggests 15-20 HRs likely once again.
MartinezVictorDET12 will likely be his last season with C eligibility. There's no doubt that he can still hit, but 20 HR days are probably over given
JacksonAustinDETHigh K% caught up to him as BABIP regressed in '11. K% actually worsened in '11 and is a concern going forward. Still young, but not enough upside for mixed leagues to invest in outside of the late rounds.
BoeschBrennanDETShows good CT/K% for a power hitter, but does expand the zone too often. Don't buy '11 success vs LHP due to small sample, low LD% and high BABIP. Hitting in front of M-Cab and Prince could result in more fastballs.
SantiagoRamonDETUtility player with a little pop, nothing more.
RayburnRyanDETBig 2nd half in '10 caused sleeper buzz in '11, but consistently poor plate discipline caused a slow start and eventual loss of PT. There's definite power in his bat, but also definite risk.
WellsCasperSEASome might look at his 11 HRs in on 215 Abs and see upside. Don't be one of those people. That HR spike was fueled by a 17% HR/FB rate. Wells also Ks way too much as struggles vs RHP. Pass.
KellyDonDETPoor plate discipline and heavy FB% on top of a utility role = no thanks.
BetemitWilsonBALHas crushed RHP over the last two seasons, but has never really hit RHP. Should land in a platoon role and be worth something in AL-only formats.
DirksAndyDETPoor plate discipline and little upside in HR/SB dept. PT should be scarce again.
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