ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABAC
1
Malaria ConsortiumMalaria Consortium
2
Burkina FasoChadCôte d'IvoireDRCDRCDRCDRCMozambiqueNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaSouth SudanTogoUganda
3
Main calculationsunittypeOverallHaut-KatangaHaut-LomamiLualabaTanganyikaNampulaBauchiBornoFCT (Abuja)KebbiKogiNasarawaOyoPlateauSokotoNorthern Bahr El Ghazal Karamoja
4
Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from below for visibility)xcashfeed-13.314.78.510.211.212.212.88.849.555.514.661.527.726.616.525.256.05.28.06.8
5
Costs
6
7
GiveWell costs
8
Grant size$input-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$17,456,907$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
9
10
Cost breakdown
11
Percentage of total costs covered by the grantee%input-89%90%91%50%50%50%50%89%82%89%89%89%89%89%89%89%89%91%50%89%
12
Percentage of total costs covered by other philanthropic actors%input-0%0%0%44%44%44%44%0%9%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%44%0%
13
Percentage of total costs covered by domestic governments%input-11%10%9%6%6%6%6%11%10%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%9%6%11%
14
15
Total costs
16
Total spending by all contributors$calc-$1,117,963$1,108,341$1,102,951$1,994,019$1,994,019$1,994,019$1,994,019$19,516,180$1,225,692$1,117,963$1,117,963$1,117,963$1,117,963$1,117,963$1,117,963$1,117,963$1,117,963$1,094,096$1,994,019$1,119,429
17
18
Total spending attributable to different actors
19
Total spending contributed by grantee$calc-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$17,456,907$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
20
Total spending contributed by other philanthropic actors$calc-$0$0$0$876,121$876,121$876,121$876,121$0$107,729$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$0$876,121$0
21
Total spending contributed by domestic governments $calc-$117,963$108,341$102,951$117,899$117,899$117,899$117,899$2,059,273$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$94,096$117,899$119,429
22
23
Upstream / downstream spending
24
Total spending causally upstream of donations to grantee$calc-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,876,121$1,876,121$1,876,121$1,876,121$17,456,907$1,107,729$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,876,121$1,000,000
25
Total spending causally downstream of donations to grantee$calc-$117,963$108,341$102,951$117,899$117,899$117,899$117,899$2,059,273$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$117,963$94,096$117,899$119,429
26
27
Cost per child covered
28
Cost per seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) cycle administered$input-$1.64$1.94$2.53$1.94$1.94$1.94$1.94$2.07$0.88$0.74$1.52$1.13$1.36$1.15$1.81$1.25$0.99$4.64$1.93$1.99
29
Number of SMC cycles per year#input-4.34.05.04.04.04.04.04.05.04.05.04.05.05.05.05.04.05.04.05.0
30
Total cost per child treated with all cycles of SMC in a year$calc-$7.08$7.77$12.63$7.77$7.77$7.77$7.77$8.29$4.42$2.95$7.59$4.51$6.81$5.76$9.04$6.23$3.97$23.20$7.73$9.93
31
Upstream costs per child treated with all cycles of SMC in a year$calc-$6.33$7.01$11.45$7.32$7.32$7.32$7.32$7.42$4.00$2.64$6.79$4.04$6.09$5.15$8.09$5.57$3.55$21.20$7.27$8.87
32
33
Outputs
34
35
Total children covered
36
Total people under age 5 receiving a year of SMC#calc-157,907142,55487,338136,702136,702136,702136,7022,353,255250,305378,403147,313247,739164,187194,169123,626179,412281,77947,160137,488112,775
37
38
Outcomes
39
40
Mortality reduction among people under age 5 (treated population)
41
Reduction in malaria incidence for children under age 5 targeted for SMC found in GiveWell's adjusted version of the Meremikwu et al. 2012 meta-analysis%input75%--------------------
42
Estimated proportion of children targeted for SMC in trials that received SMC%input90%--------------------
43
Implied reduction in malaria incidence among children under age 5 receiving SMC%calc84%--------------------
44
Internal validity adjustment%input-5%--------------------
45
External validity adjustment%input0%--------------------
46
Adjustment for lower effectiveness outside the Sahel region of Africa%input-0%0%0%-25%-25%-25%-25%-25%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-25%
47
Expected reduction in malaria incidence among children under age 5 receiving SMC%calc-79%79%79%60%60%60%60%60%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%60%
48
Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence%input100%--------------------
49
Expected reduction in malaria mortality among children under age 5 receiving SMC%calc-79%79%79%60%60%60%60%60%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%79%60%
50
Annual malaria mortality rate among 3-59-month-olds%supp-0.32%0.28%0.27%0.35%0.37%0.41%0.44%0.32%0.52%0.32%0.20%0.66%0.33%0.32%0.25%0.32%0.55%0.25%0.18%0.22%
51
Indirect malaria deaths per direct malaria death#input0.75--------------------
52
Total malaria-attributable mortality rate (including direct and indirect malaria deaths)%calc-0.55%0.49%0.48%0.60%0.65%0.72%0.77%0.56%0.91%0.56%0.35%1.16%0.57%0.56%0.45%0.56%0.96%0.43%0.32%0.39%
53
Relative reduction in mortality rate due to vaccine rollout%input--14%-2%-12%-11%-11%-11%-11%-17%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-14%-13%-17%
54
Total malaria-attributable mortality rate (including direct and indirect malaria deaths and adjustment for malaria vaccine rollout)%calc-0.47%0.48%0.42%0.54%0.58%0.64%0.69%0.47%0.81%0.50%0.31%1.03%0.51%0.50%0.40%0.50%0.86%0.37%0.28%0.33%
55
Expected number of annual malaria-attributable mortalities among the target population in the absence of SMC#calc-75068336973679087294111,0002,0231,8874562,5528389764918982,413176386368
56
Proportion of annual malaria mortality that occurs during the SMC season%input-70%70%70%52%52%52%52%52%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%70%62%
57
Expected number of malaria-attributable mortalities among the target population during the SMC season in the absence of SMC#calc-5254782583794074494855,6651,4161,3213191,7865866833446291,689123270228
58
Total deaths averted among people under age 5#calc-4173792052262422672893,3721,1241,0482531,4184655422734991,34198215136
59
60
Mortality reduction among people age 5 and older (untreated population)
61
Reduction in malaria incidence among the SMC-eligible population found in Cisse et al. 2016%input60%--------------------
62
Reduction in malaria incidence among the population too old to be eligible for SMC found in Cisse et al. 2016%input26%--------------------
63
Implied proportion of the protective effect of SMC received by the population too old to be eligible for SMC%calc43%--------------------
64
Adjustment for differences in program coverage and transmission intensity in the populations studied by the Cisse et al. 2016 trial and the populations targeted by grantee programs%input-69%--------------------
65
Expected proportion of the protective effect of SMC received by the population too old to be eligible for SMC%calc13%--------------------
66
Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people age 5 and older%calc-11%11%11%8%8%8%8%8%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%8%
67
Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence%feed100%--------------------
68
Expected reduction in malaria mortality among people age 5 and older%calc-11%11%11%8%8%8%8%8%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%8%
69
Malaria mortalities among people age 5 and older per malaria mortality among 3-59-month-olds#supp-0.80.71.20.40.40.40.41.80.31.11.30.61.91.12.31.20.40.41.70.4
70
Expected number of malaria-attributable mortalities among the target population during the SMC season in the absence of SMC#calc-4273123211331431581709,9814631,3954201,1001,1227417857686455346090
71
Total deaths averted among people age 5 and older#calc-453334111113147954914845117119798382696497
72
73
Malaria incidence reduction among people under age 15
74
Adjusted malaria incidence among people under 5%supp-73%48%79%76%91%96%93%82%88%63%50%94%86%68%89%74%66%46%63%90%
75
Adjusted malaria incidence among people age 5 to 14%supp-30%22%33%31%37%39%38%35%37%28%21%39%35%29%36%31%29%19%27%38%
76
Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people under 5pptcalc-40%27%44%23%28%29%29%25%49%35%28%52%48%38%50%41%37%26%35%33%
77
Expected reduction in malaria incidence among people age 5 to 14pptcalc-2%2%2%1%2%2%2%1%3%2%2%3%3%2%3%2%2%1%2%2%
78
National population under 5#input-4,106,4653,635,5154,354,39113,560,74013,560,74013,560,74013,560,7405,179,21737,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,84237,117,8421,562,3341,172,5107,317,718
79
National population age 5 to 14#input-6,265,7025,379,3827,217,39324,438,17924,438,17924,438,17924,438,1799,086,79264,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,22064,471,2202,732,6172,136,53212,517,987
80
Number of 5-14-year-olds exposed to spillover effects per person targeted to receive SMC#calc-1.51.51.71.81.81.81.81.81.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.81.7
81
Total 5-14-year-olds exposed to spillover effects from SMC#calc-240,937210,934144,763246,354246,354246,354246,3544,128,720434,763657,260255,873430,306285,182337,258214,731311,627489,43282,486250,530192,917
82
Malaria cases averted among people under age 5#calc-63,86837,91638,13931,87638,18140,31839,182593,516122,270132,51040,996129,11978,21373,80761,23273,682103,84912,18148,38137,592
83
Malaria cases averted among people age 5 to 14#calc-5,4053,4193,5433,1523,7763,9873,87558,55712,00713,4864,03312,3657,4497,2345,8107,29610,3951,1955,0243,662
84
85
Long-term income increases for people under age 15
86
Increase in annual income per malaria case averted among people under age 15%input0.6%--------------------
87
Adjusted increase in ln(income) per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.006--------------------
88
Average number of years between receiving SMC and the beginning of long-term benefits#input12.5--------------------
89
Discount rate for future benefits%input4.0%--------------------
90
Discounted increase in ln(income) per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.004--------------------
91
Expected number of years the long-term benefits of receiving SMC will last#input40--------------------
92
Present value of individual lifetime benefits per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.08--------------------
93
Multiplier for resource sharing within households#input2--------------------
94
Present value of total lifetime benefits per malaria case averted among people under age 15ln($)calc0.16--------------------
95
Present value of increase in units of annual ln(income) among people under age 5ln($)calc-10,3616,1516,1875,1716,1946,5406,35696,28019,83521,4966,65020,94612,68811,9739,93311,95316,8461,9767,8486,098
96
Present value of increase in units of annual ln(income) among people age 5 to 14ln($)calc-8775555755116126476299,4991,9482,1886542,0061,2081,1749431,1841,686194815594
97
Total present value of units of increase in units of annual ln(income) among people under age 15ln($)calc-11,2376,7056,7625,6826,8067,1876,985105,77921,78323,6847,30522,95213,89613,14710,87613,13618,5332,1708,6636,692
98
99
Value of outcomes
100