VA2013 Benchmarks
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2013 Virginia Election Night Benchmarks
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An estimate of the votes each candidate might win if Terry McAuliffe (D) were to win statewide by 7.5% of the two-party vote.
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Compiled by: David Wasserman, Cook Political Report @Redistrict *Note: this analysis excludes third party votes
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LocalityWarner '01 Got...%Kaine '05 Got...%Deeds '09 Got...%Est. McAuliffe%Est. McAuliffeEst. Cuccinelli
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ACCOMACK COUNTY50.93%50.70%37.57%50.37%4,2614,199
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ALBEMARLE COUNTY57.20%62.67%49.46%61.93%18,75211,527
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ALEXANDRIA CITY68.71%73.21%62.88%74.23%28,0629,740
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ALLEGHANY COUNTY59.62%55.06%61.26%52.89%2,3152,062
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AMELIA COUNTY46.97%37.80%28.87%38.74%1,4802,341
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AMHERST COUNTY51.01%44.56%32.11%43.78%3,5284,532
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APPOMATTOX COUNTY52.04%40.39%25.65%36.34%1,5802,768
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ARLINGTON COUNTY68.94%75.64%65.66%75.73%46,42514,878
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AUGUSTA COUNTY37.48%34.40%22.54%31.64%5,92312,800
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BATH COUNTY52.72%45.88%63.51%44.34%637800
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BEDFORD COUNTY41.56%37.90%22.88%34.10%7,59714,683
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BLAND COUNTY48.46%37.51%24.07%33.12%5441,098
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BOTETOURT COUNTY44.08%40.28%28.61%36.78%3,7226,397
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BRISTOL CITY48.85%38.10%27.50%38.16%1,4382,330
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BRUNSWICK COUNTY65.57%60.70%49.46%61.31%2,5021,579
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BUCHANAN COUNTY66.10%52.45%36.75%43.96%2,1922,795
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BUCKINGHAM COUNTY59.62%48.97%36.60%49.94%1,8531,857
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BUENA VISTA CITY59.86%52.84%39.05%45.36%601724
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CAMPBELL COUNTY46.21%37.50%22.94%33.75%4,7939,408
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CAROLINE COUNTY61.22%54.93%43.49%55.60%3,8253,054
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CARROLL COUNTY42.48%39.61%26.98%36.28%2,4624,324
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CHARLES CITY COUNTY73.47%69.99%58.59%69.37%1,487657
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CHARLOTTE COUNTY52.25%44.06%33.29%44.13%1,4141,790
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CHARLOTTESVILLE CITY74.54%81.09%73.75%82.15%8,8181,916
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CHESAPEAKE CITY45.95%51.68%39.66%52.68%29,62926,609
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CHESTERFIELD COUNTY42.28%45.48%33.62%46.90%42,65048,296
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CLARKE COUNTY49.84%48.63%36.63%48.10%2,0192,178
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COLONIAL HEIGHTS CITY32.45%30.15%16.83%31.35%1,5023,290
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COVINGTON CITY64.21%63.52%65.88%60.21%779515
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CRAIG COUNTY50.86%43.61%32.19%39.05%581906
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CULPEPER COUNTY42.40%39.03%29.65%40.90%4,3126,232
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CUMBERLAND COUNTY51.17%44.62%35.88%46.97%1,2121,368
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DANVILLE CITY54.43%53.90%44.98%57.65%6,0324,430
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DICKENSON COUNTY61.28%48.16%39.49%46.13%1,6131,883
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DINWIDDIE COUNTY52.77%47.35%37.36%48.78%3,4343,605
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EMPORIA CITY59.69%49.41%47.61%59.29%773531
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ESSEX COUNTY54.41%49.46%39.19%51.09%1,4401,378
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FAIRFAX CITY52.06%58.43%46.96%59.66%3,7452,532
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FAIRFAX COUNTY54.81%61.31%49.18%62.18%174,403106,099
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FALLS CHURCH CITY66.42%74.01%65.01%74.73%3,1381,061
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FAUQUIER COUNTY42.46%44.90%31.14%44.02%8,11010,312
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FLOYD COUNTY47.31%45.74%34.13%43.08%1,8072,387
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FLUVANNA COUNTY47.65%50.96%36.53%50.32%3,5993,553
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FRANKLIN CITY64.74%58.52%54.55%64.10%1,431801
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FRANKLIN COUNTY51.72%46.24%31.17%41.81%5,9728,310
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FREDERICK COUNTY39.27%36.04%25.13%37.29%6,90711,618
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FREDERICKSBURG CITY61.81%62.58%50.96%64.03%3,6122,029
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GALAX CITY54.16%51.30%37.46%46.77%571650
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GILES COUNTY57.43%50.62%36.59%45.41%1,8832,264
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GLOUCESTER COUNTY45.10%41.20%27.81%41.05%4,3496,246
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GOOCHLAND COUNTY47.66%43.29%29.15%42.34%3,1534,294
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GRAYSON COUNTY47.03%40.89%29.71%38.40%1,4862,385
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GREENE COUNTY42.28%42.22%27.40%41.36%1,9892,820
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GREENSVILLE COUNTY68.85%56.28%52.64%61.93%1,577969
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HALIFAX COUNTY55.77%44.58%38.34%46.09%3,9394,606
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HAMPTON CITY64.02%65.42%57.96%70.36%23,2989,813
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HANOVER COUNTY38.44%37.14%23.65%36.80%12,07620,744
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HARRISONBURG CITY48.04%52.12%42.23%53.65%4,0263,478
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HENRICO COUNTY51.77%54.16%43.72%56.26%49,39138,400
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HENRY COUNTY62.43%51.56%36.99%46.95%5,8926,658
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HIGHLAND COUNTY48.41%40.58%44.93%38.21%341551
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HOPEWELL CITY50.33%45.95%37.47%53.26%2,4532,153
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ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY50.10%46.99%34.13%46.66%5,2425,992
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JAMES CITY COUNTY49.57%50.25%34.34%49.22%11,21211,567
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KING & QUEEN COUNTY57.67%55.42%41.07%52.06%1,022941
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KING GEORGE COUNTY49.52%44.29%29.73%43.52%2,5123,261
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KING WILLIAM COUNTY49.77%43.74%28.42%42.40%1,9902,704
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LANCASTER COUNTY46.04%45.34%35.25%47.14%1,9232,156
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LEE COUNTY53.54%34.58%25.72%34.85%1,7283,231
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LEXINGTON CITY65.61%65.93%60.61%63.70%910519
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LOUDOUN COUNTY46.17%53.02%38.87%53.14%41,52736,615
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LOUISA COUNTY54.33%47.07%34.60%47.04%4,0734,586
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LUNENBURG COUNTY54.99%46.00%37.46%47.26%1,4311,597
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LYNCHBURG CITY53.39%51.94%38.15%48.47%9,55910,162
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MADISON COUNTY45.82%44.27%30.48%43.69%1,6332,105
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MANASSAS CITY45.95%47.28%38.03%52.89%4,0933,645
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MANASSAS PARK CITY46.66%46.40%39.83%56.12%1,223956
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MARTINSVILLE CITY67.29%63.13%51.74%63.21%2,0161,173
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MATHEWS COUNTY46.96%42.73%30.00%39.96%1,2501,879
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MECKLENBURG COUNTY47.45%43.59%32.32%43.94%3,2094,094
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MIDDLESEX COUNTY48.56%41.38%30.45%42.34%1,4471,971
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MONTGOMERY COUNTY56.35%57.03%45.38%55.02%11,5599,451
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NELSON COUNTY60.33%56.59%46.28%56.36%2,5781,996
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NEW KENT COUNTY46.05%41.35%25.50%37.99%2,2973,749
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NEWPORT NEWS CITY57.25%59.02%50.02%63.55%24,69614,167
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NORFOLK CITY65.71%68.30%60.16%71.53%30,36812,087
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NORTHAMPTON COUNTY65.20%62.10%48.91%62.01%2,1981,347
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NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY50.08%45.23%34.46%45.75%2,0002,372
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NORTON CITY67.87%45.45%39.38%46.18%398463
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NOTTOWAY COUNTY57.94%50.65%41.64%51.20%1,9571,865
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ORANGE COUNTY48.10%46.46%32.68%46.08%4,1354,839
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PAGE COUNTY42.60%39.91%29.77%40.79%2,5603,716
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PATRICK COUNTY48.86%42.53%29.89%38.21%1,7212,783
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PETERSBURG CITY82.30%82.47%81.03%88.87%6,433806
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PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY43.15%38.30%28.54%38.64%6,1579,777
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