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1 | These are just estimates based on what's publicly available. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | I have no idea what PCPO will use as baseline. Can add other scenarios. Just suggest them! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Please send suggestions to @MikePMoffatt. I've probably made a bunch of errors in here - would be grateful if they're spotted! | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | Assumption: PCs make no changes until Budget 2019. No "efficiencies" included unless specifically identified | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | DEFICIT (INCL. RESERVE, EXCL. AUD GEN ACCOUNTING) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | GPO | (Baseline = ???) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | LIB | -$6,600,000,000 | -$6,600,000,000 | -$6,500,000,000 | -$5,600,000,000 | (Baseline = Budget 2018) | ||||||||||||||||||||
10 | NDP | -$4,711,000,000 | -$5,460,000,000 | -$6,468,000,000 | -$5,035,000,000 | (Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform) | ||||||||||||||||||||
11 | PCPO (Fall 2017) | $0 | -$5,801,000,000 | -$6,985,000,000 | -$7,629,000,000 | *MOST LIKELY (Uses Fall Economic Update as Baseline. This is what People's Guarantee did) | ||||||||||||||||||||
12 | Plan for Ontario (Fall 2017) | $0 | -$4,499,000,000 | -$6,966,000,000 | -$7,488,000,000 | Uses Recently Released "Plan for Ontario" Numbers, and Fall Econ Update as Baseline | ||||||||||||||||||||
13 | PfO, with 4% "efficiencies" | $0 | $1,243,040,000 | -$1,013,280,000 | -$1,319,280,000 | What the numbers would look like if Program expenses reduced by 4%, starting in Year 2. This is *REALLY* rough. | ||||||||||||||||||||
14 | PCPO (Budget 2018) | -$6,600,000,000 | -$12,699,000,000 | -$13,650,000,000 | -$12,872,000,000 | (Uses Budget 2018 as baseline. Unlikely) | ||||||||||||||||||||
15 | PCPO (NDP Plat.) | -$1,227,000,000 | -$6,788,000,000 | -$5,640,000,000 | -$4,235,000,000 | (Uses NDP baseline as baseline. Unlikely) | ||||||||||||||||||||
16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | DEFICIT (INCL. RESERVE, INCL. AUD GEN ACCOUNTING) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | GPO | (Baseline = ???) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | LIB | -$11,800,000,000 | -$12,200,000,000 | -$12,500,000,000 | -$11,600,000,000 | (Baseline = Budget 2018) | ||||||||||||||||||||
21 | NDP | -$9,911,000,000 | -$11,060,000,000 | -$12,468,000,000 | -$11,035,000,000 | (Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform) | ||||||||||||||||||||
22 | PCPO (Fall 2017) | -$5,200,000,000 | -$11,401,000,000 | -$12,985,000,000 | -$13,629,000,000 | *MOST LIKELY (Uses Fall Economic Update as Baseline. This is what People's Guarantee did) | ||||||||||||||||||||
23 | Plan for Ontario (Fall 2017) | -$5,200,000,000 | -$10,099,000,000 | -$12,966,000,000 | -$13,488,000,000 | Uses Recently Released "Plan for Ontario" Numbers, and Fall Econ Update as Baseline | ||||||||||||||||||||
24 | PfO, with 4% efficiencies | -$5,200,000,000 | -$4,356,960,000 | -$7,013,280,000 | -$7,319,280,000 | What the numbers would look like if Program expenses reduced by 4%, starting in Year 2. This is *REALLY* rough. | ||||||||||||||||||||
25 | PCPO (Budget 2018) | -$11,800,000,000 | -$18,299,000,000 | -$19,650,000,000 | -$18,872,000,000 | (Uses Budget 2018 as baseline. Unlikely) | ||||||||||||||||||||
26 | PCPO (NDP Plat.) | -$6,427,000,000 | -$12,388,000,000 | -$11,640,000,000 | -$10,235,000,000 | (Uses NDP baseline as baseline. Unlikely) | ||||||||||||||||||||
27 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | REVENUE | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
30 | GPO | (Baseline = ???) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
31 | LIB | $152,500,000,000 | $157,600,000,000 | $163,800,000,000 | $169,500,000,000 | (Baseline = Budget 2018) | ||||||||||||||||||||
32 | NDP | $153,616,000,000 | $160,978,000,000 | $167,446,000,000 | $174,928,000,000 | (Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform) | ||||||||||||||||||||
33 | PCPO (Fall 2017) | $153,600,000,000 | $151,541,000,000 | $156,355,000,000 | $162,333,000,000 | *MOST LIKELY (Uses Fall Economic Update as Baseline. This is what People's Guarantee did) | ||||||||||||||||||||
34 | Plan for Ontario (Fall 2017) | $153,600,000,000 | $152,852,000,000 | $156,352,000,000 | $162,330,000,000 | Uses Recently Released "Plan for Ontario" Numbers, and Fall Econ Update as Baseline | ||||||||||||||||||||
35 | PCPO (Budget 2018) | $152,500,000,000 | $150,892,000,000 | $156,146,000,000 | $161,846,000,000 | (Uses Budget 2018 as baseline. Unlikely) | ||||||||||||||||||||
36 | PCPO (NDP Plat.) | $152,173,000,000 | $150,503,000,000 | $155,856,000,000 | $162,017,000,000 | (Uses NDP basline as baseline. Unlikely) | ||||||||||||||||||||
37 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | EXPENSE (EXCL. INT PAYMENTS) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
39 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | GPO | (Baseline = ???) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
41 | LIB | $145,900,000,000 | $150,400,000,000 | $155,800,000,000 | $159,500,000,000 | (Baseline = Budget 2018) | ||||||||||||||||||||
42 | NDP | $145,127,000,000 | $152,638,000,000 | $159,414,000,000 | $164,363,000,000 | (Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform) | ||||||||||||||||||||
43 | PCPO (Fall 2017) | $140,400,000,000 | $143,542,000,000 | $148,840,000,000 | $154,362,000,000 | *MOST LIKELY (Uses Fall Economic Update as Baseline. This is what People's Guarantee did) | ||||||||||||||||||||
44 | Plan for Ontario (Fall 2017) | $140,400,000,000 | $143,551,000,000 | $148,818,000,000 | $154,218,000,000 | Uses Recently Released "Plan for Ontario" Numbers, and Fall Econ Update as Baseline | ||||||||||||||||||||
45 | PCPO (Budget 2018) | $145,900,000,000 | $149,791,000,000 | $155,296,000,000 | $159,118,000,000 | (Uses Budget 2018 as baseline. Unlikely) | ||||||||||||||||||||
46 | PCPO (NDP Plat.) | $140,200,000,000 | $143,491,000,000 | $146,996,000,000 | $150,652,000,000 | (Uses NDP basline as baseline. Unlikely) | ||||||||||||||||||||
47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
48 | OTHER EXPENSE (APPLIES TO ALL) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
49 | Interest | $12,500,000,000 | $13,100,000,000 | $13,800,000,000 | $14,900,000,000 | Budget 2018 | ||||||||||||||||||||
50 | Reserve | $700,000,000 | $700,000,000 | $700,000,000 | $700,000,000 | Budget 2018 | ||||||||||||||||||||
51 | Aud Gen Acct | $5,200,000,000 | $5,600,000,000 | $6,000,000,000 | $6,000,000,000 | Aud Gen's Report. No Figures available for 2021-22 | ||||||||||||||||||||
52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
53 | POSSIBLE BASELINE ESTIMATES | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Fall 2017 Fiscal Update | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | Revenue | $153,600,000,000 | $158,249,000,000 | $164,009,000,000 | $169,987,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
56 | Expenses (excl int.) | $140,400,000,000 | $144,151,000,000 | $149,344,000,000 | $154,744,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | Budget 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
59 | Revenue | $152,500,000,000 | $157,600,000,000 | $163,800,000,000 | $169,500,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Expenses (excl int.) | $145,900,000,000 | $150,400,000,000 | $155,800,000,000 | $159,500,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
61 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
62 | NDP Platform | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
63 | Revenues | $152,173,000,000 | $157,211,000,000 | $163,510,000,000 | $169,671,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
64 | Expenses (excl int.) | $140,200,000,000 | $144,100,000,000 | $147,500,000,000 | $151,034,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||
65 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
66 | REVENUE (Changes from Baseline) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
67 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | GPO | (Baseline = ???) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | LIB | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | (Baseline = Budget 2018) | ||||||||||||||||||||
70 | NDP | $1,443,000,000 | $3,767,000,000 | $3,936,000,000 | $5,257,000,000 | (Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform) | ||||||||||||||||||||
71 | PCPO | $0 | -$6,708,000,000 | -$7,654,000,000 | -$7,654,000,000 | (Baseline = ???. Figures from Costing Sheet) | ||||||||||||||||||||
72 | Plan for Ontario | $0 | -$5,397,000,000 | -$7,657,000,000 | -$7,657,000,000 | (Baseline = ???. Figures from Plan for Ontario Tab) | ||||||||||||||||||||
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74 | EXPENSES (Changes from Baseline) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
76 | GPO | (Baseline = ???) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | LIB | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | (Baseline = Budget 2018) | ||||||||||||||||||||
78 | NDP | $4,927,000,000 | $8,538,000,000 | $11,914,000,000 | $13,329,000,000 | (Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform) | ||||||||||||||||||||
79 | PCPO | $0 | -$609,000,000 | -$504,000,000 | -$382,000,000 | (Baseline = ???. Figures from Costing Sheet) | ||||||||||||||||||||
80 | Plan for Ontario | $0 | -$600,000,000 | -$526,000,000 | -$526,000,000 | (Baseline = ???. Figures from Plan for Ontario Tab) | ||||||||||||||||||||
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