Ont Deficit Projections
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These are just estimates based on what's publicly available.
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I have no idea what PCPO will use as baseline. Can add other scenarios. Just suggest them!
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Please send suggestions to @MikePMoffatt. I've probably made a bunch of errors in here - would be grateful if they're spotted!
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Assumption: PCs make no changes until Budget 2019. No "efficiencies" included unless specifically identified
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DEFICIT (INCL. RESERVE, EXCL. AUD GEN ACCOUNTING)
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2018-192019-202020-212021-22
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GPO
(Baseline = ???)
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LIB-$6,600,000,000-$6,600,000,000-$6,500,000,000-$5,600,000,000
(Baseline = Budget 2018)
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NDP-$4,711,000,000-$5,460,000,000-$6,468,000,000-$5,035,000,000
(Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform)
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PCPO (Fall 2017)$0-$5,801,000,000-$6,985,000,000-$7,629,000,000
*MOST LIKELY (Uses Fall Economic Update as Baseline. This is what People's Guarantee did)
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Plan for Ontario (Fall 2017)
$0-$4,499,000,000-$6,966,000,000-$7,488,000,000
Uses Recently Released "Plan for Ontario" Numbers, and Fall Econ Update as Baseline
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PfO, with 4% "efficiencies"$0$1,243,040,000-$1,013,280,000-$1,319,280,000
What the numbers would look like if Program expenses reduced by 4%, starting in Year 2. This is *REALLY* rough.
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PCPO (Budget 2018)-$6,600,000,000-$12,699,000,000-$13,650,000,000-$12,872,000,000
(Uses Budget 2018 as baseline. Unlikely)
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PCPO (NDP Plat.)-$1,227,000,000-$6,788,000,000-$5,640,000,000-$4,235,000,000
(Uses NDP baseline as baseline. Unlikely)
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DEFICIT (INCL. RESERVE, INCL. AUD GEN ACCOUNTING)
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2018-192019-202020-212021-22
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GPO
(Baseline = ???)
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LIB-$11,800,000,000-$12,200,000,000-$12,500,000,000-$11,600,000,000
(Baseline = Budget 2018)
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NDP-$9,911,000,000-$11,060,000,000-$12,468,000,000-$11,035,000,000
(Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform)
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PCPO (Fall 2017)-$5,200,000,000-$11,401,000,000-$12,985,000,000-$13,629,000,000
*MOST LIKELY (Uses Fall Economic Update as Baseline. This is what People's Guarantee did)
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Plan for Ontario (Fall 2017)
-$5,200,000,000-$10,099,000,000-$12,966,000,000-$13,488,000,000
Uses Recently Released "Plan for Ontario" Numbers, and Fall Econ Update as Baseline
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PfO, with 4% efficiencies-$5,200,000,000-$4,356,960,000-$7,013,280,000-$7,319,280,000
What the numbers would look like if Program expenses reduced by 4%, starting in Year 2. This is *REALLY* rough.
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PCPO (Budget 2018)-$11,800,000,000-$18,299,000,000-$19,650,000,000-$18,872,000,000
(Uses Budget 2018 as baseline. Unlikely)
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PCPO (NDP Plat.)-$6,427,000,000-$12,388,000,000-$11,640,000,000-$10,235,000,000
(Uses NDP baseline as baseline. Unlikely)
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REVENUE
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2018-192019-202020-212021-22
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GPO
(Baseline = ???)
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LIB$152,500,000,000$157,600,000,000$163,800,000,000$169,500,000,000
(Baseline = Budget 2018)
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NDP$153,616,000,000$160,978,000,000$167,446,000,000$174,928,000,000
(Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform)
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PCPO (Fall 2017)$153,600,000,000$151,541,000,000$156,355,000,000$162,333,000,000
*MOST LIKELY (Uses Fall Economic Update as Baseline. This is what People's Guarantee did)
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Plan for Ontario (Fall 2017)
$153,600,000,000$152,852,000,000$156,352,000,000$162,330,000,000
Uses Recently Released "Plan for Ontario" Numbers, and Fall Econ Update as Baseline
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PCPO (Budget 2018)$152,500,000,000$150,892,000,000$156,146,000,000$161,846,000,000
(Uses Budget 2018 as baseline. Unlikely)
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PCPO (NDP Plat.)$152,173,000,000$150,503,000,000$155,856,000,000$162,017,000,000
(Uses NDP basline as baseline. Unlikely)
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EXPENSE (EXCL. INT PAYMENTS)
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2018-192019-202020-212021-22
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GPO
(Baseline = ???)
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LIB$145,900,000,000$150,400,000,000$155,800,000,000$159,500,000,000
(Baseline = Budget 2018)
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NDP$145,127,000,000$152,638,000,000$159,414,000,000$164,363,000,000
(Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform)
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PCPO (Fall 2017)$140,400,000,000$143,542,000,000$148,840,000,000$154,362,000,000
*MOST LIKELY (Uses Fall Economic Update as Baseline. This is what People's Guarantee did)
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Plan for Ontario (Fall 2017)
$140,400,000,000$143,551,000,000$148,818,000,000$154,218,000,000
Uses Recently Released "Plan for Ontario" Numbers, and Fall Econ Update as Baseline
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PCPO (Budget 2018)$145,900,000,000$149,791,000,000$155,296,000,000$159,118,000,000
(Uses Budget 2018 as baseline. Unlikely)
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PCPO (NDP Plat.)$140,200,000,000$143,491,000,000$146,996,000,000$150,652,000,000
(Uses NDP basline as baseline. Unlikely)
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OTHER EXPENSE (APPLIES TO ALL)
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Interest$12,500,000,000$13,100,000,000$13,800,000,000$14,900,000,000Budget 2018
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Reserve$700,000,000$700,000,000$700,000,000$700,000,000Budget 2018
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Aud Gen Acct$5,200,000,000$5,600,000,000$6,000,000,000$6,000,000,000
Aud Gen's Report. No Figures available for 2021-22
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POSSIBLE BASELINE ESTIMATES
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Fall 2017 Fiscal Update
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Revenue$153,600,000,000$158,249,000,000$164,009,000,000$169,987,000,000
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Expenses (excl int.)$140,400,000,000$144,151,000,000$149,344,000,000$154,744,000,000
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Budget 2018
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Revenue$152,500,000,000$157,600,000,000$163,800,000,000$169,500,000,000
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Expenses (excl int.)$145,900,000,000$150,400,000,000$155,800,000,000$159,500,000,000
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NDP Platform
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Revenues$152,173,000,000$157,211,000,000$163,510,000,000$169,671,000,000
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Expenses (excl int.)$140,200,000,000$144,100,000,000$147,500,000,000$151,034,000,000
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REVENUE (Changes from Baseline)
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2018-192019-202020-212021-22
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GPO
(Baseline = ???)
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LIB$0$0$0$0
(Baseline = Budget 2018)
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NDP$1,443,000,000$3,767,000,000$3,936,000,000$5,257,000,000
(Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform)
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PCPO$0-$6,708,000,000-$7,654,000,000-$7,654,000,000
(Baseline = ???. Figures from Costing Sheet)
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Plan for Ontario$0-$5,397,000,000-$7,657,000,000-$7,657,000,000
(Baseline = ???. Figures from Plan for Ontario Tab)
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EXPENSES (Changes from Baseline)
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2018-192019-202020-212021-22
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GPO
(Baseline = ???)
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LIB$0$0$0$0
(Baseline = Budget 2018)
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NDP$4,927,000,000$8,538,000,000$11,914,000,000$13,329,000,000
(Baseline = Figures in NDP Platform)
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PCPO$0-$609,000,000-$504,000,000-$382,000,000
(Baseline = ???. Figures from Costing Sheet)
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Plan for Ontario$0-$600,000,000-$526,000,000-$526,000,000
(Baseline = ???. Figures from Plan for Ontario Tab)
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