Racing Refunds Spreadsheet
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Racing Refunds Profit Estimator
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Important: To edit the spreadsheet, create your own version by clicking File > Make a copy > Okay
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Example Horse Odds and Trigger Bet Losses have been added - have a play around as you wish!
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% Chance
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Free Bet Amount
Horse Odds1st2nd2nd or 3rd
Expected Free Bet
Expected Profit
Trigger Bet Loss
NET PROFIT
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Finishes 2nd or 3rd
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Skybet£25333%20%33%£8.33£6.67£1.50£5.17
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Finishes 1st
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Bet365 (odds 5.0+)
£50617%£8.33£6.67£2.70£3.97
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Betfair (odds SP 4.0+)
£25520%£5.00£4.00£1.60£2.40
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Finishes 2nd
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Bookie 1£20333%20%33%£4.00£3.20£1.00£2.20
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Bookie 2£25520%18%30%£4.50£3.60£1.20£2.40
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Bookie 3£25714%15%26%£3.86£3.09£1.30£1.79
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Finished 2nd to SP Favourite
SP Favourite
2nd to SP Fav
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Bookie 1£2551.512%30%£3.00£2.40£0.80£1.60
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Bookie 2£25529%30%£2.25£1.80£1.20£0.60
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Bookie 3£2552.57%30%£1.80£1.44£1.30£0.14
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Finished 2nd or 3rd to SP Favourite
SP Favourite
2nd or 3rd to SP Fav
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Bookie 1£2051.520%£4.00£3.20£1.00£2.20
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Bookie 2£204216%£3.21£2.57£1.00£1.57
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Bookie 3£2052.512%£2.40£1.92£1.50£0.42
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Variables You Can Adjust
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Each Way (1/4 or 1/5)
0.25
If the race has an each pay out of 1/5, change the below cell to 0.2, this will help make the 2nd and 3rd % chances as accurate as possible.
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2nd or 3rd weighting
0.6
I have assumed an equal chance of a horse coming 2nd or 3rd, if you wish to alter this, do so here!
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Free Bet To Profit Conversion
80%
If you extract more/less from free bets to cash, you can alter it here!
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How The % Chance is Calculated
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how to check
https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/each-way.html
Chance to win is straightforward given the bookmaker gives us their odds.
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put in the decimal odds and 1/4 to place, then multiple the total returns for winning by % chance 1st and the total returns for placing by % chance 2nd or 3rd and it will equal the total stake
Chance to come 2nd/3rd is an estimate based on the total payout of an each way bet, then using formula to remove the % chance of the horse coming first.
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