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Packers decision-making on fourth and goal
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2020-21 NFC Championship Game
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Date of GameJanuary 24, 2021
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Final score31-26
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Score at the time of the call31-23
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Time remaining2:22
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Call
Fourth and goal at the X yard line
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Going for it:
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P[TD]0.6
Probability of scoring a touchdown on the one play
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P[2PT]0.48
Probability of a two point conversion
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P[defensive stop]0.68
Probability of a defensive stop within regulation
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P[Win in OT]0.53
Probability of winning in OT or with a last minute field goal
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P[Packers win]0.104
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Kicking a field goal
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P[FG]0.96
Probability of making a field goal
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P[defensive stop]0.5
Probability of making a defensive stop that would leave enough time remaining for a drive. A FG would lead to a Packers loss
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P[TD in remaining time]
0.15
Probability of a touchdown with time remaining (less than 90 seconds)
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P[Packers win]0.076
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What-if analysis
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How confident would the Packers be in their ability to stop TB after kicking a FG to make this decision the right call?0.68Find the value of P[defensive stop] that makes kicking a FG the better call
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How confident should the Packers be in scoring a TD in the remaining time if they get the ball back?0.21Find the value of P[TD in remaining time] that makes kicking a FG the better call
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