ABCDEFILORSTUVWXYZAAAB
1
DistrictIncumbentPartyFiveThirtyEight Partisan Lean (2021 Version)FiveThirtyEight Partisan Lean (2020 Version)Cook PVI2020 Pres. Margin2016 Pres. Margin2012 Pres. Margin2008 Pres. MarginFiveThirtyEight ElasticityNon-Hispanic White CVAPBlack CVAPHispanic CVAPAsian CVAPMedian Household Income% Bachelor's Degree or Higher (25+ Pop.)College-Educated Non-Hispanic White % (25+ Pop.)Non-College Non-Hispanic White % (25+ Pop.)Density Index
2
AK-1Young, DonRR+15R+16R+9-10%-15%-14%-22%1.1767.3%3.2%5.5%4.3%$76,11429.0%23.7%43.8%Pure rural
3
AL-1Carl, JerryRR+32R+29R+15-28%-29%-24%-22%0.7168.3%26.5%2.1%1.0%$46,44924.0%18.8%50.1%Rural-suburban mix
4
AL-2Moore, BarryRR+33R+31R+16-29%-32%-27%-30%0.8265.6%30.3%1.9%0.6%$44,76522.1%16.4%49.9%Pure rural
5
AL-3Rogers, MikeRR+35R+32R+16-32%-33%-26%-26%0.8871.0%25.3%1.7%0.8%$44,72521.5%16.2%54.5%Pure rural
6
AL-4Aderholt, RobRR+66R+60R+30-63%-63%-51%-48%0.8988.6%7.1%1.9%0.4%$41,82216.9%15.3%71.4%Pure rural
7
AL-5Brooks, MoRR+32R+33R+18-27%-33%-29%-26%0.8776.8%17.3%2.3%1.2%$52,87430.8%24.4%52.0%Rural-suburban mix
8
AL-6Palmer, GaryRR+42R+47R+26-35%-45%-50%-49%0.7781.4%14.6%1.7%1.0%$63,00936.0%30.1%49.6%Rural-suburban mix
9
AL-7Sewell, TerriDD+39D+41D+2042%41%45%43%0.7335.2%62.4%1.1%0.3%$35,05919.6%9.8%24.5%Rural-suburban mix
10
AR-1Crawford, RickRR+43R+32R+17-41%-35%-25%-19%1.1179.4%16.9%1.8%0.3%$39,86416.0%14.0%65.6%Pure rural
11
AR-2Hill, FrenchRR+14R+11R+7-9%-11%-12%-10%1.0073.2%21.5%2.4%1.0%$49,52629.2%23.1%49.7%Rural-suburban mix
12
AR-3Womack, SteveRR+33R+32R+19-27%-31%-34%-30%0.9485.6%3.0%6.2%1.8%$48,05826.5%22.8%57.8%Rural-suburban mix
13
AR-4Westerman, BruceRR+41R+31R+17-38%-33%-26%-23%0.9276.3%19.0%2.4%0.4%$39,24816.1%13.3%62.5%Pure rural
14
AZ-1O'Halleran, TomDR+6R+4R+22%-1%-3%-3%0.9155.3%2.3%17.8%1.2%$50,31724.1%18.9%37.2%Pure rural
15
AZ-2Kirkpatrick, AnnDD+2D+1R+111%5%-2%-1%0.9968.9%3.7%21.9%2.5%$50,27033.9%26.6%41.6%Dense suburban
16
AZ-3Grijalva, RaulDD+22D+26D+1327%30%25%18%1.1937.0%5.3%51.4%1.7%$44,33216.0%8.6%24.6%Dense suburban
17
AZ-4Gosar, PaulRR+45R+41R+21-37%-40%-36%-30%0.9980.6%1.8%13.4%1.1%$47,67118.8%16.2%63.6%Rural-suburban mix
18
AZ-5Biggs, AndyRR+23R+26R+15-15%-21%-29%-26%1.1577.3%3.0%13.6%3.4%$70,93435.3%27.6%48.1%Dense suburban
19
AZ-6Schweikert, DavidRR+13R+16R+9-4%-10%-21%-17%1.1080.9%2.6%10.8%2.8%$67,40543.4%36.2%41.5%Dense suburban
20
AZ-7Gallego, RubenDD+43D+45D+2349%49%45%31%1.1832.4%12.6%48.2%2.5%$39,00513.9%7.4%19.5%Urban-suburban mix
21
AZ-8Lesko, DebbieRR+24R+25R+13-16%-21%-25%-22%1.0075.5%4.2%15.0%2.8%$63,06229.1%23.2%52.1%Dense suburban
22
AZ-9Stanton, GregDD+15D+10D+424%16%5%4%0.9867.1%5.8%19.1%3.3%$54,21037.7%28.1%35.0%Urban-suburban mix
23
CA-1LaMalfa, DougRR+21R+24R+11-15%-20%-16%-11%1.0682.1%1.6%9.6%2.1%$48,52424.0%21.0%60.9%Rural-suburban mix
24
CA-2Huffman, JaredDD+45D+39D+2250%46%42%46%0.8779.8%1.6%10.1%3.4%$68,70940.7%34.7%41.8%Rural-suburban mix
25
CA-3Garamendi, JohnDD+9D+7D+512%13%11%13%0.9957.6%7.1%20.2%10.3%$61,26824.7%15.6%38.6%Rural-suburban mix
26
CA-4McClintock, TomRR+15R+21R+10-10%-15%-18%-11%0.9881.6%1.4%9.6%4.1%$72,37132.7%26.9%53.4%Rural-suburban mix
27
CA-5Thompson, MikeDD+43D+39D+2147%45%42%44%0.8260.6%6.8%17.4%10.9%$71,52631.0%21.1%35.6%Dense suburban
28
CA-6Matsui, DorisDD+40D+38D+2143%45%41%39%0.9745.3%14.1%20.5%14.7%$51,47927.7%15.6%27.7%Urban-suburban mix
29
CA-7Bera, AmiDD+9D+4D+314%11%4%5%0.9060.7%7.7%13.5%13.5%$69,96433.0%20.4%38.5%Dense suburban
30
CA-8Obernolte, JayRR+16R+20R+9-11%-15%-14%-13%0.9954.7%7.9%31.3%2.8%$50,05116.4%10.6%42.4%Rural-suburban mix
31
CA-9McNerney, JerryDD+14D+13D+818%19%18%15%1.1444.9%10.1%27.7%13.7%$60,71719.8%10.2%30.7%Dense suburban
32
CA-10Harder, JoshDR+1R+2EVEN3%3%4%3%1.1554.2%3.8%31.6%6.6%$59,54317.3%10.9%39.1%Dense suburban
33
CA-11DeSaulnier, MarkDD+46D+40D+2151%49%38%41%0.9756.5%9.3%16.8%13.3%$83,34343.0%28.4%23.2%Urban-suburban mix
34
CA-12Pelosi, NancyDD+71D+71D+3774%78%72%71%0.8048.4%5.7%11.2%30.9%$97,28257.4%34.9%11.1%Pure urban
35
CA-13Lee, BarbaraDD+76D+76D+4080%81%79%77%0.5841.7%19.8%13.8%19.9%$70,22246.8%27.0%11.5%Pure urban
36
CA-14Speier, JackieDD+54D+51D+2757%59%51%49%0.8141.8%3.7%17.7%32.8%$101,75346.1%21.2%16.6%Urban-suburban mix
37
CA-15Swalwell, EricDD+41D+38D+2045%46%38%37%0.8942.8%7.1%17.5%28.3%$103,10943.3%17.1%20.1%Urban-suburban mix
38
CA-16Costa, JimDD+17D+15D+920%22%19%17%1.1633.7%7.6%47.0%9.2%$40,68912.3%6.3%23.1%Dense suburban
39
CA-17Khanna, RoDD+45D+46D+2547%53%46%41%1.0933.4%3.2%14.6%45.3%$115,39055.8%13.9%13.0%Pure urban
40
CA-18Eshoo, AnnaDD+51D+44D+2355%53%39%43%0.9264.1%2.2%11.7%18.5%$122,12461.8%38.1%20.5%Urban-suburban mix
41
CA-19Lofgren, ZoeDD+41D+44D+2442%51%45%39%0.9933.5%3.5%31.0%29.0%$91,35734.3%14.2%15.5%Urban-suburban mix
42
CA-20Panetta, JimmyDD+44D+41D+2348%47%45%45%1.0353.6%2.7%34.5%5.9%$66,07827.4%19.8%24.9%Urban-suburban mix
43
CA-21Valadao, DavidRD+9D+9D+511%16%11%6%1.0327.8%6.1%60.0%3.7%$40,3308.2%3.8%18.0%Rural-suburban mix
44
CA-22R+11R+17R+8-6%-10%-15%-13%0.9649.9%3.5%37.1%7.3%$56,09724.2%15.2%31.6%Dense suburban
45
CA-23McCarthy, KevinRR+22R+28R+14-17%-22%-25%-25%1.0355.9%6.8%29.7%4.5%$57,34120.0%12.8%40.6%Dense suburban
46
CA-24Carbajal, SaludDD+19D+12D+724%20%11%15%1.0467.2%2.2%23.2%4.5%$67,57433.6%27.2%34.7%Sparse suburban
47
CA-25Garcia, MikeRD+5R+2EVEN10%7%-2%1%1.0850.9%8.5%30.0%7.8%$75,86027.3%15.8%32.5%Dense suburban
48
CA-26Brownley, JuliaDD+20D+13D+725%22%10%15%1.2456.0%2.2%32.8%6.7%$80,28132.8%22.2%28.1%Dense suburban
49
CA-27Chu, JudyDD+33D+29D+1636%38%28%26%0.9732.3%5.5%24.7%35.3%$73,44541.9%15.7%13.1%Urban-suburban mix
50
CA-28Schiff, AdamDD+42D+43D+2344%50%44%44%0.9061.7%3.4%19.9%12.2%$62,31945.2%29.4%29.2%Pure urban
51
CA-29Cardenas, TonyDD+50D+55D+2950%61%57%51%0.9828.0%5.5%55.7%9.2%$50,82319.3%7.9%15.2%Pure urban
52
CA-30Sherman, BradDD+37D+35D+1839%43%33%35%0.9158.5%5.2%22.0%11.6%$76,16942.5%27.5%27.7%Urban-suburban mix
53
CA-31Aguilar, PeteDD+16D+14D+820%21%17%15%1.2834.1%12.5%44.2%7.0%$58,16723.5%10.5%21.6%Dense suburban
54
CA-32Napolitano, GraceDD+31D+32D+1732%39%33%27%1.0221.6%3.5%54.6%18.7%$64,15121.0%5.7%12.7%Urban-suburban mix
55
CA-33Lieu, TedDD+37D+30D+1640%41%24%31%1.0470.2%3.0%11.4%12.0%$103,17663.9%46.4%22.9%Urban-suburban mix
56
CA-34Gomez, JimmyDD+63D+67D+3564%73%69%58%0.9517.6%7.3%50.9%22.2%$40,21525.2%7.3%5.4%Pure urban
57
CA-35Torres, NormaDD+31D+34D+1933%41%37%32%0.9521.0%8.6%60.5%7.4%$58,46715.3%4.1%14.1%Urban-suburban mix
58
CA-36Ruiz, RaulDD+8D+2D+214%9%3%3%1.0154.4%4.9%35.3%3.0%$46,77220.8%15.3%35.3%Dense suburban
59
CA-37Bass, KarenDD+68D+70D+3771%76%72%71%0.8231.9%29.3%26.4%9.6%$54,06337.8%18.5%9.6%Pure urban
60
CA-38Sanchez, LindaDD+32D+32D+1733%40%32%26%0.9322.1%4.5%55.7%16.0%$65,96322.5%5.3%14.9%Pure urban
61
CA-39Kim, YoungRD+6R+1EVEN10%9%-4%-2%0.9538.1%2.8%27.9%28.9%$85,14741.1%14.3%19.7%Dense suburban
62
CA-40Roybal-Allard, LucilleDD+57D+63D+3357%69%65%58%1.258.2%7.8%79.5%3.7%$43,4999.5%1.3%4.7%Pure urban
63
CA-41Takano, MarkDD+22D+22D+1226%28%25%21%1.2232.0%11.3%48.3%6.1%$60,62917.0%7.7%21.6%Dense suburban
64
CA-42Calvert, KenRR+13R+18R+9-7%-12%-15%-11%0.9751.1%6.3%30.7%8.9%$77,29725.1%13.3%34.9%Sparse suburban
65
CA-43Waters, MaxineDD+54D+56D+2956%62%58%53%0.8620.0%28.4%34.7%13.6%$52,80625.5%7.5%9.8%Pure urban
66
CA-44Barragan, NanetteDD+59D+66D+3559%71%71%65%0.8110.5%22.9%57.2%7.2%$49,77412.6%2.5%6.5%Pure urban
67
CA-45Porter, KatieDD+6R+6R+311%5%-12%-5%0.9759.8%1.9%14.9%20.5%$97,43153.8%30.3%25.6%Urban-suburban mix
68
CA-46Correa, LouDD+29D+29D+1531%38%25%19%0.9429.9%2.5%48.9%17.0%$59,86318.0%6.7%15.4%Pure urban
69
CA-47Lowenthal, AlanDD+25D+23D+1327%32%23%19%0.9540.6%8.5%25.4%22.4%$63,88731.1%15.4%21.7%Pure urban
70
CA-48Steel, MichelleRR+2R+8R+41%2%-12%-5%1.0663.3%1.3%14.7%17.7%$87,41344.4%30.7%29.2%Urban-suburban mix
71
CA-49Levin, MikeDD+7R+3R+113%8%-7%1%0.9269.3%2.8%18.8%6.2%$82,20244.1%34.1%32.1%Dense suburban
72
CA-50Issa, DarrellRR+14R+23R+11-8%-15%-23%-19%1.0265.5%3.1%22.0%5.5%$70,77427.8%20.3%41.4%Dense suburban
73
CA-51Vargas, JuanDD+36D+41D+2236%49%41%33%0.9819.8%9.0%59.9%9.4%$44,75914.2%4.1%12.2%Urban-suburban mix
74
CA-52Peters, ScottDD+23D+12D+629%23%6%12%1.0065.2%3.3%11.9%16.0%$89,95557.6%37.7%24.4%Urban-suburban mix
75
CA-53Jacobs, SaraDD+32D+26D+1436%35%25%25%0.9648.3%8.6%26.8%12.6%$68,79937.1%21.4%25.0%Urban-suburban mix
76
CO-1DeGette, DianaDD+47D+39D+2154%46%40%43%1.0268.6%8.2%18.2%2.6%$62,19546.2%38.6%26.0%Urban-suburban mix
77
CO-2Neguse, JoeDD+23D+15D+930%21%18%24%1.0287.6%0.9%7.4%2.1%$75,02153.9%48.6%37.7%Sparse suburban
78
CO-3Boebert, LaurenRR+12R+15R+6-6%-12%-6%-2%1.1777.2%1.0%18.5%0.6%$51,45630.3%26.9%49.1%Pure rural
79
CO-4Buck, KenRR+22R+27R+13-16%-23%-19%-15%1.0879.8%1.2%15.7%1.2%$71,35734.5%30.1%46.9%Rural-suburban mix
80
CO-5Lamborn, DougRR+21R+28R+14-13%-24%-21%-19%1.1276.9%5.6%12.0%2.0%$61,39135.5%29.9%46.4%Dense suburban
81
CO-6Crow, JasonDD+12D+2D+219%9%5%9%1.0371.5%8.7%12.7%4.4%$75,96242.0%33.3%33.7%Dense suburban
82
CO-7Perlmutter, EdDD+15D+8D+623%12%15%17%1.1673.5%1.6%20.2%2.6%$65,88032.4%27.2%42.9%Dense suburban
83
CT-1Larson, JohnDD+21D+20D+1228%23%28%33%1.1069.1%13.5%13.4%2.9%$69,91036.9%28.1%39.0%Sparse suburban
84
CT-2Courtney, JoeDD+3D+1D+311%3%13%19%1.0386.0%3.8%6.2%2.2%$74,42734.7%30.9%54.5%Rural-suburban mix
85
CT-3DeLauro, RosaDD+14D+14D+921%16%26%26%1.1372.1%12.8%11.0%2.8%$66,46535.9%27.5%43.0%Sparse suburban
86
CT-4Himes, JimDD+22D+14D+730%23%11%20%1.0870.8%12.2%12.7%3.7%$92,79948.7%38.9%26.1%Sparse suburban
87
CT-5Hayes, JahanaDD+2.8D+0.4D+211%4%8%14%1.1277.2%6.5%12.9%2.4%$71,13235.8%30.3%44.6%Sparse suburban
88
DE-1Blunt Rochester, LisaDD+14D+12D+619%12%19%25%0.8469.9%21.2%5.2%2.3%$63,03631.0%22.6%45.6%Sparse suburban
89
FL-1Gaetz, MattRR+40R+44R+22-34%-39%-38%-35%0.9077.2%13.0%4.6%2.1%$53,48027.1%22.7%54.6%Rural-suburban mix
90
FL-2Dunn, NealRR+40R+39R+18-35%-36%-31%-28%0.9779.7%12.8%4.5%1.1%$47,14623.3%19.2%60.4%Rural-suburban mix
91
FL-3Cammack, KatRR+19R+21R+9-13%-16%-15%-10%0.9972.9%15.3%7.6%2.3%$47,04726.3%19.6%53.0%Pure rural
92
FL-4Rutherford, JohnRR+28R+35R+17-21%-28%-33%-29%1.0979.7%9.0%6.2%3.2%$66,75338.7%30.9%47.6%Sparse suburban
93
FL-5Lawson, AlDD+21D+21D+1227%25%28%27%0.8644.9%46.0%5.5%1.9%$39,66720.1%10.5%34.5%Sparse suburban
94
FL-6Waltz, MichaelRR+22R+18R+7-18%-17%-6%1%0.9478.4%9.5%9.5%1.3%$45,87323.1%19.0%59.8%Sparse suburban
95
FL-7Murphy, StephanieDD+4.6R+0.4EVEN10%7%0%3%1.0464.2%10.2%21.0%3.3%$56,68138.2%27.2%35.5%Sparse suburban
96
FL-8Posey, BillRR+23R+24R+11-18%-21%-15%-11%1.1180.4%8.5%7.9%1.6%$50,99828.2%23.5%56.2%Sparse suburban
97
FL-9Soto, DarrenDD+4D+7D+57%13%12%10%0.9649.8%12.4%34.5%2.6%$48,01622.7%12.5%35.5%Sparse suburban
98
FL-10Demings, ValDD+21D+20D+1125%27%22%22%0.9944.3%26.5%22.7%4.6%$50,38029.6%16.2%25.8%Sparse suburban
99
FL-11Webster, DanRR+37R+33R+15-32%-32%-19%-14%1.1083.7%6.4%7.6%1.0%$45,05120.6%17.8%65.8%Rural-suburban mix
100
FL-12Bilirakis, GusRR+22R+20R+8-17%-19%-8%-4%1.0883.0%4.4%9.5%2.0%$50,54226.9%21.7%60.5%Sparse suburban