VA Key Race Analysis as of 8.25.2019*
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VA House of DelegatesDistrictD- Candidate *=IncumbentNOPE's Democratic DozenR-Opponent *=IncumbentVideo2017 D/R **Old DistrictNortham/ Gillespie **Old DistrictNortham/ Gillespie New DistrictEvery District LDIDem Cash on Hand 5/30/19R Cash on Hand 5/30/19Dem Cash Raised Apr-MayR Cash Raised Apr-MayCommentaryLuria Margin 2018
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Priority Now
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28Josh Colehttps://secure.actblue.com/donate/nope4vadems2019Milde2017 Video50/5051/48-1$158.1K$7.0K$88.7K$82.9KJosh suprised experts losing this Stafford Co+ district in 2017 by only 73 votes. R incumbent Anderson lost to more extreme right opponent Milde in primary. Thus now an open seat.
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83Nancy GuyChris Stolle*43/57**50/48**55/446$112.0K$93.3K$46.2K$27.2K
Redistricting suggests 12.4% Dem shift - VA Beach, Norfolk
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85Alex AskewRocky Holcomb51/49**53/45**55/441$122.4K$34.2K$82.1K$22.3K
Incumbent Turpin running for Senate. Redistricting suggests 2.7% Dem shift, VA Beach district.
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100Phil HernandezRob Bloxom*2019 Video48/5253/465$151.4K$25.5K$92.3K$0.4KHernandez is energetic new candidate. Bloxom is popular on Eastern Shore which is most voters~4.31
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66Sheila Bynum-ColemanKirk Cox*36/63**39/60**52/477$123.6K448.4K$79.4K$76.3KCox is current HOD speaker. Redistricting suggests 32% Dem shift in this South of Richmond district. Bynum-Coleman has run before in different district.
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Worthy27Larry BarnettRoxann Robinson*2017 Video50/5051/48-2$170.1K$165.5K$70.2K$38.0KLarry only lost in 2017 by 128 votes, and is now experienced and well prepared in this increasingly blue suburban Richmond district.
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73Rodney WillittMary KastlebergVideo51/4853/457$151.3K$64.8K$86.9K$34.9K
Incumbent Rodman running for Senate. Richmond suburb area somewhat bluish
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10Wendy Gooditis*Randy MinchewVideo52/4854/454$182.4K$260.20$62.7K$58.3K
Wendy is a very strong candidate, but former incumbent Minchew is running again. Western NOVA
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51Hala Ayala*Rich Anderson53/4755/446$141.5K$131.1K$55.2K$23.3KHala defeated Anderson fairly strongly in 2017, but he is mobilized for rematch
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21Kelly Fowler*Shannon KaneVideo52/4756/429$81.8K$55.2K$43.4K$12.3K
This VA Beach district remains competitive. Kane was VA Beach Council member.
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76Clint JenkinsChris Jones*-/9450/49**60/3915$55.7K$651.1K$49.5K$56.2KRedistricting suggests 27.4% Dem shift in Suffolk/Chesapeake district.
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Possible Later84Karen MallardGlen Davis*48/5252/461$87.8K$127.8K$46.6K$115.4K
Virginia Beach area where Kane did well
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81Len MeyersBarry Knight*41/59**44/55**52/47-1$15.8K$312.2K$8.8K$31.0KRedistricting suggests 16.1% Dem shift VA Beach/Chesapeake district, thus potentially competiive
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62Lindsey DoughertyCarrie Coyner48/52**48/51**49/?-6$11.8K$134.7K$8.0K$12.2KOpen seet with Ingram retiring. Redistricting suggests 2.3% Dem Shift.
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Probably Too Good40Dan HelmerTim Hugo*50/5055/444$285.9K$403.3K$100.5K$69.7KDem Tanner lost by 99 votes in 2017. Helmer is very strong Dem candidate and blue-leaning district in W. Fairfax Co. +, but Hugo is strong incumbent.
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94Shelly SimondsDavid Yancey*50/50**55/44**60/3918$212.1K$286.1K$92.0K$49.9K
Shelly tied Yancey in 2017. Redistricting suggests 13.6%Dem shift.
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91Martha MuglerColleen Holcomb44/56**47/51**54/458$21.5K$10.7K$20.7K$7.6K
Open-Very Flippable Seat. Redistricting suggest 19.8% Dem shift. - Hampton Rds Area
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68Dawn Adams*Garrison Coward50/49.556/438$173.9K$27.6K$31.2K$27.3K
Dawn narrowly won this suburban Richmond district, relatively well funded.
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72VanValkenberg*Vandergriff53/47**54/44$140.8K$59.8K$45.4K$24.7K
VanValkenberg won fairly handily in 2017. Redistricting helps him slightly in suburban Richmond.
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93Mike MullinHeather Cordasco60/39.9**55/43$48.0K$3.7K$26.5K$3.8K
Previously solid blue district shifted a bit R in redistricting, but Northam did well and Mullin strong.
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75Roslynn TylerOtto Wachsmann94/-53/47**$95.6K$2K0?$2K
Southside District along NC Border. Redistrictind suggests 5.8% R shift.
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VA SenateDistrictD- Candidate *=IncumbentR-Opponent *=IncumbentVideo2015 D/RNortham/ GillespieDem Cash on Hand 5/30/19R Cash on Hand 5/30/19Dem Cash Raised Apr-MayR Cash Raised Apr-MayCommentary
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Priority Now8Missy Smasal https://secure.actblue.com/donate/nope4vadems2019Bill DeSteph*Video41/5950/49-3$187.3K$193.6K$93.9K$85.0KMissy is a veteran with strong roots in Virginia Beach and is a strong challenger-3.45
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Worthy12Debra RodmanS. Dunnavant*38/5852/47-1$233.7K$331.9K$146.8K$141.2K
Mostly Henrico District is trending Bluer. Rodman is giving up HoD Seat (73) to vie for this one.
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Bigger Reach11Amanda PohlAmanda Chase*Donate36/6446/53$39.9K$65.2K$41.3K$16.4K
Incumbent Chase has been controversial and appears vulnerable.
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Too Good10Ghazala HashmiGlen Sturtevant*47/5057/4210$143.5K$413.6K$168.9K$111.7K
Moderate Sturtevant highly vulnerable in Richmond/Chesterfield+ district
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13John BellGeary Higgins48/5255/442$240.1K$89.0K$96.4K$116.7K
Loudoun district is now bluish. Dick Black R incumbent is retiring. Bell is strong candidate.
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7Cheryl TurpinJen Kiggans46/5454/453$120.3K$39.7K$122.3K$43.3K
HD Turpin is candidate. Should be prime for Dem flip
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* Many thanks to our friends at 31st Street Swing left for compiling the data.
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