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Wandjina World Tour! Efficiency Calculations
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By MegaMorgan
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Event-Specific Notes
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None
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Introduction
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The purpose of this document is to try and answer the question, "If I've already cleared the shop for the Event, is it worth it to continue farming the Event for Material drops?" In order to answer this question, I came up with a value that I will refer to as Efficiency, which compares the APD (average AP per Drop) values of the Event Quests to the best possible Free Quests for those drops.
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In this document, 'Event Quest' will refer to the limited-time Free Quests in the Event itself, while 'Free Quest' will refer to the Free Quests that are available all the time, in Singularities and Lostbelts.
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All calculations are done using JP Free Quest data. If you care about these calculations, it's possible you're planning at least 2 years into the future anyway. This can be changed in the 'Inputs' tab (guide is in the 'Contents' tab).
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You can make a personal copy of this sheet to fit it toward your own purposes. The 'Inputs' tab can be used to exclude drops, as well as limit how far into the future this document analyzes. You can also designate the Cut Off for each Material's Efficiency, which causes Free Quests whose drop rates are too low to get ignored for some calculations.
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For Lottery Events, you can also input your expected Lotto Currency Drop Bonus in the 'Event Quest' tab. This will include Materials gained from opening boxes in the Efficiency calculations. Details below in the 'Lottery Events' section.
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Values in this shade are the only values that need to be modified to personalize calculations.
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Quick Explanation for the Event Quest Tab
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For many people, after you have excluded the Materials you do not care about in the 'Inputs' tab and chosen the Event you want analyzed in cell A1, the only numbers you need to care about are in the Total Eff and T. Eff (min) columns. Together, these numbers offer a range for how much AP you stand to gain by farming these Event Quests over Free Quests.
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If Total Eff is below 1, it is always better to farm Free Quests for the materials dropped. If T. Eff (min) is above 1, it is always better to farm that Event Quest over Free Quests, but not necessarily over other Event Quests. Higher values are better.
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As stated below, there is a reason that T. Eff (min) is referred to as being the 'minimum Total Efficiency.' The true merit of the quest will probably lie between Total Eff and T. Eff (min). If Total Eff is much greater than 1 (Ex: 1.6 or higher), and T. Eff (min) is not much lower than 1 (Ex: 0.8 or higher), it would be fair to assume that it IS a good Event Quest to farm.
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Further, you don't have to robotically follow whatever this document says is a good idea. FGO is just a game, and this document is just a tool to try and help players reach their goals better.
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Efficiency Explanation
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Eff: a material's Efficiency (Eff) is the ratio between the Event Quest's APD for that Material and its best APD from Free Quests.
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Total Eff: by adding together the Eff for each Material we care about, we can get the Event Quest's Total Efficiency (Total Eff). Coincidentally, Total Eff tells us how much AP we gain by farming the Event Quest over farming each Materials' best Free Quests in sequence (proven in the "Proof" tab)... at least, if we merely compare each Material's APD from the Event Quest to only that Material's APD from each Free Quest.
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This is where the minimum Total Efficiency (T. Eff(min)) comes in. T. Eff (min) takes into account that Free Quests might drop multiple Materials that we care about. In order to calculate it, we must first calcuate each Material's minimum Efficiency (Eff (min)).
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Eff (min): on the 'Free Quest' tab, the Total Eff for each Free Quest is calculated the same as for Event Quests. Back on the 'Event Quest' tab, for each Quest, a Material's Eff (min) is the ratio between that Material's Eff and the greatest Total Eff among Free Quests which drop that Material.
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I refer to it as 'minimum Efficiency' because, if the actual AP gain exists within a range dependent on how much of each Material you want, then the minimum Efficiency seems to be the lower bound for what that actual Efficiency might be.
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T. Eff (min): each Event Quest's minimum Total Efficiency (T. Eff (min)) is the sum of each material's Eff (min). This demonstrates how much AP we stand to gain or lose by farming that Event Quest rather than some combination of those efficient Free Quests. If the Event Quest's T. Eff (min) is greater than 1, as stated above, it should be more efficient than any combination of Free Quests for those materials.
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Important Note on T. Eff (min): Excluding Materials in the "Inputs" tab can heavily modify an Event Quest's Total Eff and T. Eff (min) values. In particular, the Eff (min) values are highly sensitive to what Materials you exclude in unexpected ways. This can lead to very misleading data if not taken into account (beyond the assumptions we're already making). Make sure that your Material Exclusions match your goals.
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For example, if you are going to get all the Materials you need from a future Event, or even from farming the current Event, it may be worth excluding the Material to see how that changes your calculations. The information on this sheet is only as good as the information you feed it.
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Lottery Events
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Feature Explanation: This document can also add Materials from boxes into its Efficiency calculations.
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By calculating the average amount of AP that must be spent on a Lotto Event Quest in order to obtain a box (AP/Box), this sheet can simulate a drop chance for each Material in that box and add it to the Quest's drops.
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Event Quest Inputs: the most important variable for a Quest's AP/Box ratio is the Lotto (Currency) Drop Bonus. An Event-wide bonus can be input next to 'Lotto Drop Bonus' in cell G1. You can also input Drop Bonuses for specific Quests in column G ('Lotto'). These will override the general Lotto Drop Bonus in cell G1. If the input is blank, Materials from boxes will not be included in the analysis at all.
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Reading Lottery Data: on the 'Event Quest' tab, to the right of all the normal Material drop data (starting on column FT), the 'Avg Lot' values show how many Lottery Drops drop from that Event Quest. '# Lot' refers to the average number of Lottery Drop stacks, important for calculating the impact of the Lottery Drop Bonus. These values help determine the average number of runs needed to obtain a box (R/Box), which helps determine the overall AP Cost (AP/Box).
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Examples for Interpreting the Event Quest Tab
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In Saber Wars II, the APD for Dragon's Reverse Scale in the 'Fantasy Planet Caribou' Event Quest was 211 AP. The best APD for Scales from Free Quests at the time was Babylonia's Nippur at 172.9 AP. This meant the Scale's Eff for that Event Quest was 0.82, or not worth farming for Scales alone.
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However, that Event Quest also dropped Dragon Fangs at an APD of 94.9 AP. The best APD from Free Quests at the time was 27.8 AP, from America's Deming. While this only lead to the Eff for Fangs in that Event Quest to be 0.29, the Event Quest's Total Eff of 1.11 revealed that it was more AP efficient to farm the Event Quest than Nippur and Deming in sequence. Assuming you only cared about Dragon's Scales and Fangs.
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Jumping over to the 'Inputs' or 'Top 5 Free' tabs, we saw that the highest Total Eff among Free Quests for Dragon's Scales was going to be Avalon le Fae's Gloucester, with a Total Efficiency of 1.8. As the 'Free Quest' tab shows, this is because Gloucester is also good for Void Dust and Bells of Amnesty. This caused the Eff (min) for that material to be 0.455.
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We also saw that that the highest Total Efficiency for Fangs was Salem's Jail, with a value of 1.489. This is because Jail was also good for Lamps. This caused the Eff (min) for that material to be 0.197.
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In total, this meant that 'Fantasy Planet Caribou' had a T. Eff (min) of 0.652, which means that it was less efficient to farm that Event Quest as long as we cared about Dragon's Reverse Scales, Dragon's Fangs, Void Dust, Bells, AND Lamps.
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Other Details
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A more in depth explanation for each tab can be found in the 'Contents' tab, linked here.
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Tab titles in that tab link to their described tabs.
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If you want a more accurate analysis, a stronger farming plan, or just a better idea of what Events to farm, I recommend Fate/Grand Farm, linked below.
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https://github.com/Amarfas/FateGrandFarm
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