ABCDEFGHIJMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACAD
1
Growth Rate Reduction =
0.01
per day starting today (1% = 0.01, 0.5% = 0.005)
2
Days Until Deceleration =
-1,099
growth in cases will accelerate until this many days from now
3
Confirmed Cases
Actual Cases
4
Maximum Cases = 6,015,2765,413,161cases
6
Date of Maximum =6/206/20pandemic could be over
7
Est. Total Hospitalizations
 1,203,055 1,082,632 based on Chinese data showing ~20% hospitalization rate
8
Est. 3-week Stays in ICU 300,764 270,658 based on Chinese data showing ~5% critical case rate and 21 day average stay if a patient lives
9
Est. Deaths 120,306 108,263 based on a 2% CFR...will be 4-5% if hospitals get overwhelmed based on data from Wuhan
10
US Date
US Confirmed
Daily Change
Growth Factor
Cases/Million
3-day Avg. Growth Factor
Utah Date
Utah Cases
Utah Change
Utah Growth Factor
NOTES
11
3/1 75 3/1978153/19: Utah hits 78 cases which is what the entire US had on 3/1, so it's now 18 days behind the US numbers if all the measures taken don't slow down the rate of infection. That is to say, with no measures taken Utah could expect to have ~10k cases by 4/6. Having a lower case count only means you are behind in time, not that you are doing better. Many of the US states are simply at the bottom of their own exponential growth curves which now look just like this early US data!
12
3/2 100 253/20112342.27
13
3/3 124 240.96 0.38 3/21136240.71
14
3/4 158 341.42 0.48 3/22181451.88
15
3/5 221 631.85 0.67 3/23257761.693/23: Utah is outpacing early US case growth, it's about to be <18 days behind US case numbers
16
3/6 319 981.56 0.97 3/24298410.54
17
3/7 435 1161.18 1.32 1.5313/25346481.17
18
3/8 541 1060.91 1.64 3/26402561.17
19
3/9 704 1631.54 2.13 3/27480781.39Utah is slowing down compared to early US growth which is great
20
3/10 994 2901.78 3.01 1.410
21
3/11 1,301 3071.06 3.94
22
3/12 1,697 3961.29 5.13
23
3/13 2,247 5501.39 6.80 1.246
24
3/14 2,943 6961.27 8.90
25
3/15 3,680 7371.06 11.13
26
3/16 4,663 9831.33 14.11 1.219It appears as though this is the last day of restricted testing based upon EXPLODING 3/17 data, and if that's not true GOD HELP US! Note that we're likely already at the ACTUAL (not confirmed) case density (cases/million) that Italy shut down.
27
3/17 6,411 1,7481.78 19.40 3/16 estimated maximum cases were 80k @ 1% daily reduction, 3/17 reported data raised that to 110k....a few hundred cases difference today is tens of thousands by the end!
28
3/18 9,259 2,8481.63 28.02 NYC passes 3,000 cases. Wuhan lockdown at 1,000 cases. NYC should lockdown ASAP.
29
3/19 13,789 4,5301.59 41.72 1.6667815Ignoring this 3-day growth factor average because the huge increase is likely caused by more widespread testing. Or GOD HELP US!!!
30
3/20 19,383 5,5941.23 58.65 112342.273/20: The 60 cases/million population point has moved from 3/24 to today since 3/17...now 3/24 has ~120 cases instead of 60 cases/million population, so in the last 3 days the predicted case count on 3/24 has DOUBLED.
Today we hit 60 cases a million and what happened? WE FINALLY STARTED LOCKING DOWN! I told you governments would freak out starting at 60 cases/M. We are being more proactive than most, here's where others reacted:
Italy: 100 full country in lockdown
Spain: 133 full country in lockdown
Belgium: 128 full country in lockdown
Germany and France were in the 60-80 range when they implemented severe restrictions
I suspect that here in the US we'll start seeing nationwide restrictions on domestic travel sometime in the next week or two max. With no noticeable reduction in growth one week from now on 3/27 we should be 232 cases/million and two weeks on 4/3 we'll be at 931 cases/million, or ~300k cases.
31
3/21 24,207 4,8240.86 73.24 136240.71
32
3/22 33,566 9,3591.94 101.56 1.346181451.88Ignoring this 3-day growth factor average because the huge increase is likely caused by more widespread testing. Or GOD HELP US!!!
33
3/23 43,734 10,1681.09 132.33 257761.69
34
3/24 54,856 11,1221.09 165.98 298410.54
35
3/25 68,211 13,3551.20 206.39 1.127346481.17
36
3/26 85,435 17,2241.29 258.50 402561.17
37
3/27 104,126 18,6911.09 315.06 480781.39
38
3/28 123,578 19,4521.04 373.91 1.139 602 1221.56
39
3/29 143,491 19,9131.02 434.16 719 1170.96
40
3/30 163,788 20,2971.02 495.58 806 870.74
41
3/31 188,530 24,7421.22 570.44 887 810.93
42
4/1 218,443 29,9131.21 660.95 1,012 1251.54
43
4/2 254,309 35,8661.20 769.47 1,074 620.50
44
4/3 296,953 42,6441.19 898.50 1,104 300.49
45
4/4 347,230 50,2771.18 1,050.62 1,118 140.48
46
4/5 406,004 58,7741.17 1,228.46 1,125 70.47
47
4/6 474,124 68,1191.16 1,434.56 1,128 30.46
48
4/7 552,392 78,2691.15 1,671.38 1,130 10.45
49
4/8 641,540 89,1481.14 1,941.12 1,130 10.44
50
4/9 742,188 100,6481.13 2,245.65 1,130 00.43
51
4/10 854,813 112,6251.12 2,586.42 1,131 00.42
52
4/11 979,713 124,9011.11 2,964.34 1,131 00.41
53
4/12 1,116,979 137,2651.10 3,379.66 1,131 00.40
54
4/13 1,266,461 149,4821.09 3,831.95 1,131 00.39
55
4/14 1,427,751 161,2911.08 4,319.97 1,131 00.38
56
4/15 1,600,171 172,4191.07 4,841.67 1,131 00.37
57
4/16 1,782,762 182,5921.06 5,394.14 1,131 00.36
58
4/17 1,974,301 191,5381.05 5,973.68 1,131 00.35
59
4/18 2,173,308 199,0081.04 6,575.82 1,131 00.34
60
4/19 2,378,087 204,7791.03 7,195.42 1,131 00.33
61
4/20 2,586,756 208,6691.02 7,826.80 1,131 00.32
62
4/21 2,797,303 210,5471.01 8,463.85 1,131 00.31
63
4/22 3,007,638 210,3361.00 9,100.27 1,131 00.30
64
4/23 3,215,660 208,0210.99 9,729.68 1,131 00.29
65
4/24 3,419,312 203,6530.98 10,345.88 1,131 00.28
66
4/25 3,616,651 197,3390.97 10,942.97 1,131 00.27
67
4/26 3,805,899 189,2480.96 11,515.58 1,131 00.26
68
4/27 3,985,494 179,5960.95 12,058.98 1,131 00.25
69
4/28 4,154,134 168,6400.94 12,569.24 1,131 00.24
70
4/29 4,310,800 156,6660.93 13,043.27 1,131 00.23
71
4/30 4,454,776 143,9760.92 13,478.90 1,131 00.22
72
5/1 4,585,650 130,8740.91 13,874.89 1,131 00.21
73
5/2 4,703,305 117,6550.90 14,230.88 1,131 00.20
74
5/3 4,807,900 104,5950.89 14,547.35
75
5/4 4,899,839 91,9390.88 14,825.53
76
5/5 4,979,734 79,8950.87 15,067.27
77
5/6 5,048,363 68,6290.86 15,274.93
78
5/7 5,106,629 58,2660.85 15,451.22
79
5/8 5,155,515 48,8850.84 15,599.14
80
5/9 5,196,040 40,5260.83 15,721.76
81
5/10 5,229,231 33,1910.82 15,822.18
82
5/11 5,256,082 26,8510.81 15,903.42
83
5/12 5,277,536 21,4540.80 15,968.34
84
5/13 5,294,463 16,9270.79 16,019.55
85
5/14 5,307,649 13,1860.78 16,059.45
86
5/15 5,317,789 10,1400.77 16,090.13
87
5/16 5,325,486 7,6960.76 16,113.42
88
5/17 5,331,250 5,7650.75 16,130.86
89
5/18 5,335,510 4,2600.74 16,143.75
90
5/19 5,338,616 3,1060.73 16,153.15
91
5/20 5,340,849 2,2330.72 16,159.90
92
5/21 5,342,432 1,5830.71 16,164.69
93
5/22 5,343,538 1,1070.70 16,168.04
94
5/23 5,344,301 7620.69 16,170.35
95
5/24 5,344,818 5180.68 16,171.92
96
5/25 5,345,165 3460.67 16,172.96
97
5/26 5,345,393 2280.66 16,173.65
98
5/27 5,345,541 1480.65 16,174.10
99
5/28 5,345,636 950.64 16,174.39
100
5/29 5,345,695 600.63 16,174.57
101
5/30 5,345,732 370.62 16,174.68