ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAA
1
I list my confidence level of the prediction occuring. The goal is to position oneself to hedge/benefit if the prediction comes true, if possible. I have a margin of error on timing. My MO is to peg timing based on the earliest when that prediction may occurr. But I am almost always too early, but I would rather be early than late.
Yellow is time frame for occurrence
2
3
4
5
PeriodOrderSlide/SectionProbability Of Outcome OccurringNotesTiming Margin of Error (years later when could happen)2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520402045205020552060
6
The Reckoning1Poor Government Monetary and Fiscal Policy100%-10.00%10-1.43%-1.43%-1.43%-1.43%-1.43%-1.43%-1.43%-1.43%-1.43%-1.43%-1.43%
7
The Reckoning2Unfunded Public Pension Liabilities (Incl. Social Security)100%10
8
The Reckoning3Health Care Costs100%10
9
The Reckoning4Property Insurance100%Already started
10
The Reckoning5Boomers Retiring100%Already started
11
The Reckoning6Residential Real Estate100%
Downturn projected in yellow cells
12
The Reckoning7Commercial Office Space Overbuilt100%Already started
13
The Reckoning8Infrastructure Needs50%Already started
14
The Reckoning9Wealth Inequality75%5
15
The Reckoning10Generational Differences100%4
16
The Reckoning11Political Polarization75%4
17
The Reckoning12Climate Change - Severe Transportation Limitations50%5-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%-2%
18
The Reckoning13Climate Change - Reduced Industrial Production50%5
19
The Reckoning14Climate Change - Paying The World To Decarbonize50%5-4.00%-4.00%-4.00%-4.00%-4.00%-4.00%-4.00%-4.00%-4.00%-4.00%-4.00%
20
The Reckoning15Resource Constraints100%5
21
The Reckoning16Deglobalization100%Already started
22
The Reckoning17China Implodes66%5
23
The Reckoning18Too Much Cash100%Already started
24
The Reckoning19Incumbent Backlash66%7
25
The Reckoning20Inflation Here To Stay75%Already started
26
The Reckoning21Civil War/National Breakup15%
27
The Reckoning22External Conflicts/Wars100%Already started
28
The Reckoning23War Declared on Climate Change100%7
29
The Reckoning24Cyberwarfare100%3
30
The Reckoning25Autocratic Rule50%10
31
The Reckoning26Crises100%Already started
32
The Reckoning27Me vs You100%Already started
33
The Resurgence1A Class All Our Own100%Already started
34
The Resurgence2Winner Takes All100%Already started
35
The Resurgence3Spirit of America100%Already started
36
The Resurgence4Ample Room To Level The Playing Field66%5
37
The Resurgence5Innovation Everywhere100%Already started
38
The Resurgence6Reindustrialization100%Already started
39
The Resurgence7AI Is A Game Changer100%Already started
40
The Resurgence8Full Employment Through Recession?50%3
41
The Resurgence9Health Care Hidden Gems100%3
42
The Resurgence10The Good Side Of Inflation100%Already started
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100