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LAST REVIEWED: 14 SEPTEMBER 2022
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Test-to-Treat: Test kit and Treatment Courses Estimation Tool
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Instructions: adjust scenario data in items (1), (2), and (3) below
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Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5Scenario 6
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Description: similar to current epidemiology e.g. moderate infection rates, moderate test positivity, moderate patient eligibility.Omicron-like waveBA.4/5-like surge[fill as necessary][fill as necessary][fill as necessary]
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CountryABCABCABCABCABCABC
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Reference dataDistrictDEF (or N/A)DEF (or N/A)DEF (or N/A)DEF (or N/A)DEF (or N/A)DEF (or N/A)
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SiteGHI (or N/A)GHI (or N/A)GHI (or N/A)GHI (or N/A)GHI (or N/A)GHI (or N/A)
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Cumulative Omicron tests and cases determined using OWID between Dec 25 2021 and Mar 3 2021. Included for reference. (adjustable)National Cumulative Omicron cases*[fill for reference only - not used in calculations below]
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National cumulative number of tests*[fill for reference only - not used in calculations below]
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Based on current dataBased on similar omicron outbreakBased on similar BA.4/5 outbreake.g. Yearly estimate July 2021 to June 2022 (OWID)e.g. Proxy - No waves of infectionse.g. Proxy - 2 BA.5 waves of infection
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Est number of cases per [define time period] of implementation+ 18,000 100,000 65,000
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Total estimate over implementation period for catchment area. Adjust these scenarios according to your desired projection. In the absense of reliable catchment or district level data, a calculation of (population of catchment area)/(total country population) * (national cases) may be a useful proxy to estimate the number of cases
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TestingTest Positivity (Example source: National testing data, OWID, FIND)10%10%10%10%10%10%
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Positivity can be included and adjusted if helpful. Note: positivity changes rapidly at the outset of a surge, and is primarily useful to calculate tests and cases during times of a relatively stable infection rate. Positivity may range from very low, ~3-5%, to 35% in periods of high infectivity.


ALTERNATIVELY, teams can remove calculation in ROW 26, and insert number specific for the country context (further clarification in ROW 26)
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Est percent mild/moderate90%90%90%90%90%90%
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Evidence suggests 90% of patients will have mild/moderate disease [reference]
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Est number of tests required
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Estimated number of tests required can be calculated based on 1) # of tests performed in district/catchment area over defined period, 2) (population of catchment area)/(total country population) * (national tests) 3) (District/catchment positivity for defined period) * (# cases), 4) (National positivity for defined period) * (# cases in district/catchment area for defined period) 933,000 1,000,000 650,000 0 0 0
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TreatmentEst Percent high risk***15%15%15%15%15%15%
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Est percent high risk based on literature
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Est percent identified w/in 5 days50%50%50%35%35%35%
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NMV/r Percent of stock (optional)*50%80%
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Number of mild/mod cases 16,200 90,000 58,500 0 0 0
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Number eligible for treatment 2,430 13,500 8,775 0 0 0
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Total # of courses required over [insert time period] 1,215 6,750 4,388 0 0 0
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Number of NMV/r courses 3,375 3,510
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Number of Molnupiravir courses 3,375 878
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Total cost of commodities to implement T2T per quarterLegendNotes
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Cost per RDT (ex works) ^Total cost of RDTCost per Tx course†Total cost of TxTotal cost Dx + TxLocationTemplate can be used to calculate estimates down to catchment area (if preferable)
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Scenario 1$2.25$2,099,250$85$103,275$2,202,525OWIDData retreived from OWID represents worst-case scenario for future outbreaks. Can be used as either reference or to inform calculations
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Scenario 2$2.25$2,250,000$85$573,750$2,823,750Est CalculationCalculated fields based on assumptions
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Scenario 3$2.25$1,462,500$85$372,938$1,835,438Ex works priceAdditional costs can be added based on country context
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Scenario 4$2.25$0$85$0$0AssumptionsThese should be updated based on country context
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Scenario 5$2.25$0$85$0$0Calculated costSummarize costs associated with estimated testing and treatment volumes.
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Scenario 6$2.25$0$85$0$0
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SymbolNotes
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*Both Paxlovid and Molnupiravir have contraindications and therefore countries may choose to stock both ARVs. If helpful, country teams may designate the percent of total procured courses that will come from Pfizer. This row is optional. If data is inserted Rows 35 and 36 will calculate total need for each
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^Represents current cost of test kit without shipping. Country teams can adjust based on average shipping costs per country (USAID has used 30% of RDT cost previously)
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†Based on publically available MOL price
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Caveats
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# of previously infected people within past several months
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# vaccinated +/- booster
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