Open Source Success Rates
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1
Raw Source Table 1:
Legend:
2
Class
# of projects
%Black
Provided Raw Data
3
Abandonded in Initiation
6712638.50%
Abandoned before first release
Blue
Calculated data
4
Interdeterminate in Initiation
168069.64%
Showing activity but not reached first release
Bright Green
Deduced Data Constant
5
Indeterminate in Growth
120526.91%
Reached first release, still active, but hasn't reached third release
Green
Calculated deduced data
6
Abandonded in Growth
5345030.66%
Abandonded after first release
7
Successful in Growth
2489914.28%
Continued beyond third release
8
Total174333100.00%
9
10
Raw Source Table 2:
11
# Developers
Abandoned in Growth
Successful in Growth
% Projects% Projects
Abandonded delta decrease
Success delta decrease
12
1372591176514.23%1 in 7
13
2832944207.49%1 in 130.2235433050.3756906077
14
3323623804.95%1 in 200.38852203150.5384615385
15
4157315153.59%1 in 280.48609394310.6365546218
16
592110762.72%1 in 370.58550540370.7102310231
17
65257312.10%1 in 480.57003257330.6793680297
18
73165141.68%1 in 600.60190476190.7031463748
19
81984241.38%1 in 720.62658227850.8249027237
20
91413091.14%1 in 880.71212121210.7287735849
21
10902340.96%1 in 1040.63829787230.7572815534
22
11–203059900.83%1 in 120
23
>20534570.26%1 in 381
24
Totals5294624815
25
26
Deduced Table (# projects)
27
# Developers
Abandonded in Initiation
Interdeterminate in Initiation
Indeterminate in Growth
Abandoned in Growth
Successful in Growth
Abandonded delta decrease
Success delta decrease
Total
28
0109082.4515
Number of projects which start
Success Rate for X developers = sum(all projects larger than X developers) / (total projects)
29
142001.6212610515.735297541.0949473725911765109082.451515.89%
30
210922.786172734.68321961.1092428329442028367.5786227.78%
31
31204.641999863.87869663236238012496.0641246.48%
32
4475.0102235157315156871.05520257.49%
33
592110764443.49003864.84%
34
65257312794.703869.00%
35
73165141846.81859472.38%
36
81984241384.00140475.11%
37
91413091001.28718976.80%
38
1090234
Using Delta Decrease to deduce # projects with 11+ developers
720.926776378.54%
39
1171.1195.390.790.835592.962273579.68%
40
1256.169163.15065488.004346580.80%
41
1344.37351136.2307928401.859499381.89%
42
1435.0550729113.7527119331.109619282.94%
43
1527.6935075994.98351448272.966512583.94%
44
1621.87787179.31123459225.154122584.88%
45
1717.2835180966.22488088185.813089185.77%
46
1813.6539792955.29777553153.423352986.59%
47
1910.7866436446.17364257126.741344287.33%
48
208.52144847438.55499155104.748969688.00%
49
217.83973259639.326091380.921.02104.947856388.60%
50
227.21255398940.11261321105.302408189.16%
51
236.6355496740.91486547105.803603489.69%
52
246.10470569641.73316278106.443210890.19%
53
255.6163292442.56782603107.213727690.67%
54
265.16702290143.41918256108.108322591.12%
55
274.75366106944.28756621109.120783691.55%
56
284.37336818445.17331753110.245470491.95%
57
294.02349872946.07678388111.477269292.34%
58
303.70161883146.99831956112.811552992.70%
59
Total172972.6346
60
61
Deduced Table (as %)
62
# Developers
Abandonded in Initiation
Interdeterminate in Initiation
Indeterminate in Growth
Abandoned in Growth
Successful in Growth
Abandonded delta decrease
Success delta decrease
% Successful Projects
% Successful Projects
Success Rate
AbandonedSmallGrowth
63
063.06%77.39%
Success Rate for X developers = sum(all projects larger than X developers) / (total projects)
77.39%
64
124.28%6.08%4.36%21.54%6.80%14.33%1 in 715.89%14.33%
65
26.31%1.58%1.13%4.82%2.56%7.53%1 in 1327.78%7.53%
66
30.00%0.70%0.50%1.87%1.38%4.97%1 in 2046.48%4.97%
67
40.00%0.00%0.27%0.91%0.88%3.60%1 in 2857.49%3.60%
68
50.00%0.00%0.00%0.53%0.62%2.72%1 in 3764.84%2.72%
69
60.00%0.00%0.00%0.30%0.42%2.10%1 in 4869.00%2.10%
70
70.00%0.00%0.00%0.18%0.30%1.68%1 in 6072.38%1.68%
71
80.00%0.00%0.00%0.11%0.25%1.38%1 in 7275.11%1.38%
72
90.00%0.00%0.00%0.08%0.18%1.13%1 in 8876.80%1.13%
73
100.00%0.00%0.00%0.05%0.14%
Using Delta Decrease to deduce # projects with 11+ developers
0.96%1 in 10578.54%0.96%
74
110.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.11%0.790.8350.82%1 in 12279.68%0.82%
75
120.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.09%0.71%1 in 14180.80%0.71%
76
130.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.08%0.61%1 in 16381.89%0.61%
77
140.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.07%0.53%1 in 18782.94%0.53%
78
150.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.05%0.47%1 in 21383.94%0.47%
79
160.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.05%0.41%1 in 24284.88%0.41%
80
170.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.04%0.37%1 in 27285.77%0.37%
81
180.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.03%0.33%1 in 30386.59%0.33%
82
190.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.03%0.30%1 in 33687.33%0.30%
83
200.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.27%1 in 36988.00%0.27%
84
210.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.921.020.25%1 in 40288.60%0.25%
85
220.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.23%1 in 44289.16%0.23%
86
230.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.20%1 in 49389.69%0.20%
87
240.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.18%1 in 55890.19%0.18%
88
250.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.16%1 in 64490.67%0.16%
89
260.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.13%1 in 76691.12%0.13%
90
270.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.11%1 in 94891.55%0.11%
91
280.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.08%1 in 125191.95%0.08%
92
290.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.05%1 in 185892.34%0.05%
93
300.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.03%1 in 368092.70%0.03%
94
Total
95
96
97
98
99
100
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