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daydeadrecoveredinfected todaysickinfectingvaccinatedIn this very simple model sickness always lasts 14 days, then ends in death or recovery with fixed odds; infecting starts after three days of sickness and continues at fixed rate till resolution, where each potential infection is aimed at a random person and fails if such person is already vaccinated, recovered, dead or sick; vaccinations start at fixed date and continue at fixed rate until no more people left, but pauses for 14 days at given date
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00,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%These are example results, I've got for various settings of the red parameters:
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10,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%chance of death after sickness0,030,030,030,030,030,030,030,030,030,030,030,030,03
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20,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%number of potential infections per infecting person per day0,1250,1250,1250,1250,1250,1250,1250,1250,1250,1250,1250,1250,125
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30,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%vaccinations per day0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%0,10%
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40,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%total deaths per milion citizens12853211621632672789379508483127321276912853146781468214680
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50,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%first day of vaccination300100101100200201200300301300400401400
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60,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%first day of 14 day vaccination pause36000160002600036000460
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70,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%number of deaths because of delay in vaccination:47556575903712242
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80,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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90,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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100,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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110,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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120,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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130,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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140,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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150,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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160,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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170,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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180,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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190,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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200,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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210,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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220,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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230,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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240,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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250,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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260,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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270,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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280,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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290,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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300,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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310,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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320,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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330,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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340,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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350,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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360,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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370,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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380,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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390,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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400,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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410,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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420,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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430,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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440,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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450,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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460,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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470,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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480,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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490,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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500,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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510,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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520,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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530,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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540,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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550,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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560,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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570,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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580,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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590,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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600,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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610,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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620,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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630,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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640,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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650,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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660,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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670,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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680,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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690,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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700,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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710,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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720,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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730,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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740,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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750,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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760,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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770,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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780,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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790,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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800,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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810,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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820,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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830,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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840,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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850,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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860,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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870,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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880,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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890,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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900,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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910,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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920,00%0,01%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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930,00%0,01%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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940,00%0,01%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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950,00%0,01%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
98
960,00%0,01%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
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970,00%0,01%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%
100
980,00%0,01%0,00%0,00%0,00%0,00%