JCI DCF Model.xlsx

	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J
1
2
3	Johnson Controls International plc						141.73
4	5-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit							Stock Price in USD
5	NYSE:JCI							4/24/2026
6
7	Model Summary
8
9		Range		Conclusion				Fair Value
10		Low	High				121.39
11
12	Cost of Capital	10.5%	9.5%	10.0%
13	Terminal EBITDA Multiple	15.6x	17.6x	16.6x				USD
14	Fair Value	112.45	130.65	121.39
15	Upside	-20.7%	-7.8%	-14.4%
16
17		5-Yr Period
18	Revenue 5Y CAGR	6.7%
19	EBITDA 5Y CAGR	10.1%
20	Unlevered FCF 5Y CAGR	10.2%
21
22	5Y Average EBITDA Margin	19.2%
23	5Y Average Unlevered FCF Margin	14.4%
24
25	Ticker	JCI
26
27
28	Revenue and EBITDA Forecast
29
30	(USD in millions)		Input Projections
31	Fiscal Years Ending	Sep-25	Sep-26	Sep-27	Sep-28	Sep-29	Sep-30
32
33	Revenue	23,596	25,145	26,776	28,199	30,296	32,626
34	% Growth	2.8%	6.6%	6.5%	5.3%	7.4%	7.7%
35
36	EBITDA	3,837	4,554	5,056	5,542	6,194	6,199
37	% of Revenue	16.3%	18.1%	18.9%	19.7%	20.4%	19.0%
38
39
40	Capital Expenditures Forecast
41
42	(USD in millions)		Input Projections
43	Fiscal Years Ending	Sep-25	Sep-26	Sep-27	Sep-28	Sep-29	Sep-30
44
45	Capital Expenditures	434	452	472	493	533	560
46	% of Revenue	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	1.7%
47
48
49		Fiscal Years Ending					YTD
50	Historical Spending	Sep-21	Sep-22	Sep-23	Sep-24	Sep-25	Dec-25
51
52	Capital Expenditures	552	487	446	494	434	80
53	% of Revenue	2.3%	2.4%	2.0%	2.2%	1.8%
54	5-Year Average	2.1%
55
56
57	Net Working Capital Forecast
58
59	(USD in millions)		Input Projections
60	Fiscal Years Ending	Sep-25	Sep-26	Sep-27	Sep-28	Sep-29	Sep-30
61
62	Net Working Capital	621	661	704	742	797	858
63	% of Revenue	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
64
65	NWC Investment	(17)	(41)	(43)	(37)	(55)	(61)
66
67		Fiscal Quarters Ending					Latest
68	Historical	Sep-24	Dec-24	Mar-25	Jun-25	Sep-25	Dec-25
69		FQ-5	FQ-4	FQ-3	FQ-2	FQ-1	FQ
70
71	Total Current Assets	11,179	11,289	11,350	11,849	10,162	10,441
72	(-) Cash and Short Term Invest.	(606)	(1,237)	(795)	(731)	(379)	(552)
73	(-) Total Current Liab.	(11,955)	(11,083)	(11,817)	(12,350)	(10,941)	(10,501)
74	(+) Current Portion of Debt	1,778	1,669	2,083	2,131	1,515	1,004
75	Net Working Capital	396	638	821	899	357	392
76	% of LTM Revenue	NA	NA	3.5%	3.8%	1.5%	1.6%
77	Last Four Quarter Average	2.6%
78
79	NWC Investment						(10)
80	LTM Revenue			23,248	23,402	23,596	23,967
81
82
83	Depreciation & Amortization Forecast
84
85	(USD in millions)		Input Projections
86	Fiscal Years Ending		Sep-26	Sep-27	Sep-28	Sep-29	Sep-30
87
88	Depreciation & Amortization		765	717	656	927	979
89	% of Revenue		3.0%	2.7%	2.3%	3.1%	3.0%
90
91
92
93		Fiscal Years Ending					YTD
94	Historical	Sep-21	Sep-22	Sep-23	Sep-24	Sep-25	Dec-25
95
96	Depreciation & Amortization	845	717	745	816	865	164
97	% of Revenue	3.6%	3.5%	3.3%	3.6%	3.7%
98	Average	3.5%
99
100