2008CountyTVMDatabase
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The 2004-2008 County Presidential True Vote Database Model
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These states are currently in the database. More states will be added:
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AZ CA CO FL GA IA IL IN MA MI MO NC NM NY NV OH OR PA TN TX WI
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The data source is:
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http://www.mapsofworld.com/usa/presidential-election/results/
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The objective of the model is twofold: it is a data reference and a tool to determine the most fraudulent counties in 2008. No model is perfect, but the County TVM provides a good estimate of election fraud as measured by vote share and vote count margin discrepancies from the recorded vote.
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The database has been restructured. Filtering for a state is no longer required. An "Input" sheet has been added. The state code is entered in cell A2.
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The key stats are shown in the "Input" sheet. These include the state True Vote table and discrepancies between Obama's True county vote margin and the recorded margin. Calculation details are displayed in the "Model" sheet.
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True Vote margins are calculated based on two returning voter methods: The default method assumes that 2004 voters returned iproportional to the 2004 unadjusted exit poll shares.
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The second method assumes that returning voters were proportional to the recorded vote shares. Enter 1 in cell A6 to use this method.
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Discrepancies are lower when the 2004 recorded vote is the basis for returning voters.
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Since the 2004 recorded vote was bogus, the best estimate of true discrepancy is obtained by using the unadjusted exit poll as a basis.
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The default 97% turnout of living 2004 voters in 2008 can be changed.
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The model automatically adjusts vote shares based on the differential between the unadjusted state and national exit polls.
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The user has the option of overriding the returning voter mix and/or the vote shares.
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The options are entered as follows:
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a) as an incremental change in Kerry's returning voter percentage.A corresponding negative change is made to Bush's percentage.
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b) as an incremental change in Obama's share of new and returning voters. A corresponding negative change is made to McCain's share.
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Kerry lost the national recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. He had 51.1% in the unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents) and 51.7% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents).
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Obama won the national recorded vote by 52.9-45.6%. He had 58% in the unadjusted state exit polls (83,000 respondents) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents).
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The model indicates that the following counties were the most fraudulent.
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Wisconsin
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Obama recorded share: 56.2%, Exit Poll: 63.3%, True Vote Model: 59%
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The most discrepant counties (in thousands of votes) were:
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Waukesha 37, Sheboygan 15, Washington 13, Milwaukee 11, Racine 8.
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Ohio
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Obama recorded share: 51.4%, Exit Poll: 56.3%, True Vote Model: 56.0%
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Cuyahoga 37, Franklin 35, Montgomery 30, Summit 28, Hamilton 23, Butler 22
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Florida
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Obama recorded share: 50.9%, Exit Poll: 52.1%, True Vote Model: 54.3%
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Palm Beach 55, Miami-Dade 50, Brevard 31, Broward 24, Volusia 23
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New York
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Obama recorded share: 62.8%, Exit Poll: 71.5%, True Vote Model: 68.7%
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Nassau 102, Suffolk 98, Erie 59, Queens 38, Westchester 34
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Pennsylvania
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Obama recorded share: 54.5%, Exit Poll: 63.8%, True Vote Model: 62.3%
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Allegheny 101, Bucks 45, Westmoreland 43, Montgomery 42, Delaware 33, Chester 25
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Intro
Input
Model
TX
NM
National
AZ
CA
CO
FL
GA
IA
IL
IN
MI
NC
NY
NV
OH
OR
PA
TN
WI
MO
ExitPolls
KerryObamaGraph
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